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0000C000000
FXUS61 KBTV 031125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAPER BACK POPS IN
THE SLV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO
BLENDED CURRENT T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO EXISTENT VALUES FROM
LATE MORNING ONWARD. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS
TRENDING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO
EARLY EVENING PER LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES IN OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT,
DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO
MID LEVEL BULK SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES
LIKELY TO RANGE ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. IN ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST,
THUS PVA VALUES WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING
WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS
MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT
SAID WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS
CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING
SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME
FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A
FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A
GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THOUGH VFR WILL PREDOMINATE, EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS MVFR/IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN DEVELOPING STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

EARLY-MORNING SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. LOCALIZED TURBULENCE, HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND
PERHAPS HAIL ARE IN THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT A 18-01Z
TIME WINDOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/MOVES
EAST THEREAFTER TO VFR BKN CLOUDS INTO THE REST OF THE EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS TODAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAPER BACK POPS IN
THE SLV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO
BLENDED CURRENT T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO EXISTENT VALUES FROM
LATE MORNING ONWARD. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS
TRENDING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO
EARLY EVENING PER LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES IN OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT,
DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO
MID LEVEL BULK SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES
LIKELY TO RANGE ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. IN ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST,
THUS PVA VALUES WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING
WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS
MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT
SAID WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS
CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING
SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME
FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A
FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A
GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THOUGH VFR WILL PREDOMINATE, EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS MVFR/IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN DEVELOPING STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

EARLY-MORNING SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. LOCALIZED TURBULENCE, HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND
PERHAPS HAIL ARE IN THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT A 18-01Z
TIME WINDOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/MOVES
EAST THEREAFTER TO VFR BKN CLOUDS INTO THE REST OF THE EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS TODAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAPER BACK POPS IN
THE SLV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO
BLENDED CURRENT T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO EXISTENT VALUES FROM
LATE MORNING ONWARD. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS
TRENDING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO
EARLY EVENING PER LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES IN OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT,
DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO
MID LEVEL BULK SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES
LIKELY TO RANGE ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. IN ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST,
THUS PVA VALUES WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING
WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS
MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT
SAID WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS
CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING
SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME
FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A
FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A
GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THOUGH VFR WILL PREDOMINATE, EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS MVFR/IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN DEVELOPING STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

EARLY-MORNING SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. LOCALIZED TURBULENCE, HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND
PERHAPS HAIL ARE IN THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT A 18-01Z
TIME WINDOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/MOVES
EAST THEREAFTER TO VFR BKN CLOUDS INTO THE REST OF THE EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS TODAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAPER BACK POPS IN
THE SLV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO
BLENDED CURRENT T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO EXISTENT VALUES FROM
LATE MORNING ONWARD. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS
TRENDING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO
EARLY EVENING PER LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES IN OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT,
DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO
MID LEVEL BULK SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES
LIKELY TO RANGE ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. IN ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST,
THUS PVA VALUES WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING
WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS
MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT
SAID WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS
CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING
SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME
FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A
FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A
GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THOUGH VFR WILL PREDOMINATE, EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS MVFR/IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN DEVELOPING STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

EARLY-MORNING SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. LOCALIZED TURBULENCE, HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND
PERHAPS HAIL ARE IN THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT A 18-01Z
TIME WINDOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/MOVES
EAST THEREAFTER TO VFR BKN CLOUDS INTO THE REST OF THE EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS TODAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAPER BACK POPS IN
THE SLV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO
BLENDED CURRENT T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO EXISTENT VALUES FROM
LATE MORNING ONWARD. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS
TRENDING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO
EARLY EVENING PER LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES IN OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT,
DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO
MID LEVEL BULK SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES
LIKELY TO RANGE ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. IN ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST,
THUS PVA VALUES WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING
WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS
MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT
SAID WE`RE STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS
CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING
SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME
FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A
FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A
GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THOUGH VFR WILL PREDOMINATE, EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS MVFR/IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN DEVELOPING STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

EARLY-MORNING SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. LOCALIZED TURBULENCE, HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND
PERHAPS HAIL ARE IN THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT A 18-01Z
TIME WINDOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/MOVES
EAST THEREAFTER TO VFR BKN CLOUDS INTO THE REST OF THE EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS TODAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS TRENDING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO EARLY EVENING PER
LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN
OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT, DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK
SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO RANGE
ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN
ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST, THUS PVA VALUES
WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F
ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THOUGH VFR WILL PREDOMINATE, EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS MVFR/IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN DEVELOPING STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

EARLY-MORNING SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. LOCALIZED TURBULENCE, HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND
PERHAPS HAIL ARE IN THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT A 18-01Z
TIME WINDOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/MOVES
EAST THEREAFTER TO VFR BKN CLOUDS INTO THE REST OF THE EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS TODAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIE
00004000
R WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS TRENDING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO EARLY EVENING PER
LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN
OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT, DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK
SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO RANGE
ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN
ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST, THUS PVA VALUES
WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F
ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THOUGH VFR WILL PREDOMINATE, EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS MVFR/IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN DEVELOPING STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

EARLY-MORNING SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. LOCALIZED TURBULENCE, HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING AND
PERHAPS HAIL ARE IN THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT A 18-01Z
TIME WINDOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/MOVES
EAST THEREAFTER TO VFR BKN CLOUDS INTO THE REST OF THE EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS TODAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG
00004000
 IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...
00004000
THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER V
00004000
ALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING AC
00004000
ROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT..
00004000
.THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRIN
00004000
GS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS TRENDING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO EARLY EVENING PER
LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN
OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT, DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK
SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO RANGE
ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN
ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST, THUS PVA VALUES
WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F
ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM VFR/MVFR RAIN FROM WEAKENING
GREAT LAKES MCS AFFECTING MSS THROUGH 12Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. GREATER
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS NEARING
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MSS
SHORTLY. I CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND WILL AMEND IF A
MORE IMMINENT THREAT BUT FOR NOW I`VE TREATED AS 6SM RA. LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY SITE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHELRY WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL LLWS AT MSS AND SLK.
ASIDE FROM THAT, VFR SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10-12 KTS.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM GREAT LAKES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WOULD BE FROM SLK AND POINTS EAST. I`VE SHOWN 6SM +SHRA IN
TAFS, TIMING 18-20Z THRU 01Z PER LATEST HI- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS
DURING THE DAY BUT TEND TO STAY SUSTAINED AT 10-12 KTS TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS TRENDING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO EARLY EVENING PER
LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN
OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT, DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK
SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO RANGE
ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN
ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST, THUS PVA VALUES
WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F
ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.
00004000

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM VFR/MVFR RAIN FROM WEAKENING
GREAT LAKES MCS AFFECTING MSS THROUGH 12Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. GREATER
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS NEARING
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MSS
SHORTLY. I CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND WILL AMEND IF A
MORE IMMINENT THREAT BUT FOR NOW I`VE TREATED AS 6SM RA. LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY SITE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHELRY WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL LLWS AT MSS AND SLK.
ASIDE FROM THAT, VFR SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10-12 KTS.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM GREAT LAKES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WOULD BE FROM SLK AND POINTS EAST. I`VE SHOWN 6SM +SHRA IN
TAFS, TIMING 18-20Z THRU 01Z PER LATEST HI- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS
DURING THE DAY BUT TEND TO STAY SUSTAINED AT 10-12 KTS TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS TRENDING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO EARLY EVENING PER
LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN
OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT, DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK
SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO RANGE
ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN
ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST, THUS PVA VALUES
WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F
ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM VFR/MVFR RAIN FROM WEAKENING
GREAT LAKES MCS AFFECTING MSS THROUGH 12Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. GREATER
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS NEARING
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MSS
SHORTLY. I CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND WILL AMEND IF A
MORE IMMINENT THREAT BUT FOR NOW I`VE TREATED AS 6SM RA. LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY SITE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHELRY WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL LLWS AT MSS AND SLK.
ASIDE FROM THAT, VFR SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10-12 KTS.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM GREAT LAKES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WOULD BE FROM SLK AND POINTS EAST. I`VE SHOWN 6SM +SHRA IN
TAFS, TIMING 18-20Z THRU 01Z PER LATEST HI- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS
DURING THE DAY BUT TEND TO STAY SUSTAINED AT 10-12 KTS TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS TRENDING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO EARLY EVENING PER
LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN
OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT, DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK
SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO RANGE
ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN
ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST, THUS PVA VALUES
WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F
ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MEAN
FOR THE EXTENDED. THOUGH GENERALLY UNSETTLED, IT`S A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL PERIOD. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT LIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY GIVEN AN ABSENCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH (PW VALUES UNDER AN INCH). WORTH NOTING
THAT RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING NORTH A
RATHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. I`M LARGELY DOWNPLAYING THIS IDEA AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPAWNED FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS DAYS EARLIER. THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE COOL AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN THE +5 TO +8C RANGE, WHICH UNDER
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WOULD SUPPORT LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. THOSE ARE BELOW EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS BY A FEW
DEGREES, THOUGH QUITE COMFORTABLE.

THOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM VFR/MVFR RAIN FROM WEAKENING
GREAT LAKES MCS AFFECTING MSS THROUGH 12Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. GREATER
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS NEARING
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
00004000
WARD TOWARD MSS
SHORTLY. I CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND WILL AMEND IF A
MORE IMMINENT THREAT BUT FOR NOW I`VE TREATED AS 6SM RA. LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY SITE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHELRY WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL LLWS AT MSS AND SLK.
ASIDE FROM THAT, VFR SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10-12 KTS.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM GREAT LAKES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WOULD BE FROM SLK AND POINTS EAST. I`VE SHOWN 6SM +SHRA IN
TAFS, TIMING 18-20Z THRU 01Z PER LATEST HI- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS
DURING THE DAY BUT TEND TO STAY SUSTAINED AT 10-12 KTS TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 342 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. SOUTH
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT/ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SHOULD BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND 2-3 FT HIGHEST IN BROAD-LAKE AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. PLEASE
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS TRENDING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO EARLY EVENING PER
LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN
OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT, DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK
SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO RANGE
ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN
ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST, THUS PVA VALUES
WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F
ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM VFR/MVFR RAIN FROM WEAKENING
GREAT LAKES MCS AFFECTING MSS THROUGH 12Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. GREATER
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS NEARING
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MSS
SHORTLY. I CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND WILL AMEND IF A
MORE IMMINENT THREAT BUT FOR NOW I`VE TREATED AS 6SM RA. LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY SITE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHELRY WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL LLWS AT MSS AND SLK.
ASIDE FROM THAT, VFR SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10-12 KTS.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM GREAT LAKES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WOULD BE FROM SLK AND POINTS EAST. I`VE SHOWN 6SM +SHRA IN
TAFS, TIMING 18-20Z THRU 01Z PER LATEST HI- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS
DURING THE DAY BUT TEND TO STAY SUSTAINED AT 10-12 KTS TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS TRENDING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO EARLY EVENING PER
LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN
OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT, DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK
SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO RANGE
ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN
ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST, THUS PVA VALUES
WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F
ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM VFR/MVFR RAIN FROM WEAKENING
GREAT LAKES MCS AFFECTING MSS THROUGH 12Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. GREATER
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS NEARING
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MSS
SHORTLY. I CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND WILL AMEND IF A
MORE IMMINENT THREAT BUT FOR NOW I`VE TREATED AS 6SM RA. LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY SITE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHELRY WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL LLWS AT MSS AND SLK.
ASIDE FROM THAT, VFR SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10-12 KTS.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM GREAT LAKES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WOULD BE FROM SLK AND POINTS EAST. I`VE SHOWN 6SM +SHRA IN
TAFS, TIMING 18-20Z THRU 01Z PER LATEST HI- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS
DURING THE DAY BUT TEND TO STAY SUSTAINED AT 10-12 KTS TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POS
00001B03
SIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 030558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND 
00004000
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS FOR A 3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 030558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS FOR A 3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.
00004000

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY

000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY

000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
B
00004000
AY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY

000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CON
00004000
TINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH AND
WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 0230Z WILL CONTINUE EWD MOTION AROUND
25-30 KTS INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN NY. ALREADY
SEEING SOME IR CLOUD TOP WARMING DURING PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
ONTARIO WITH MCS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT PROGGED INCREASE IN
LOW- LEVEL JET (50KTS AT KMSS AT 900MB BY 10Z) WILL POTENTIALLY
LEND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA DURING THE PRE- DAWN
HRS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 06Z AND THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ACROSS VT...GENERALLY DRY AND MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE MOST FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT. OVERALL FOG
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY ANVIL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING EWD AND
LIMITED RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM VFR/MVFR RAIN FROM WEAKENING
GREAT LAKES MCS AFFECTING MSS THROUGH 12Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. GREATER
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS NEARING
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MSS
SHORTLY. I CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND WILL AMEND IF A
MORE IMMINENT THREAT BUT FOR NOW I`VE TREATED AS 6SM RA. LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY SITE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHELRY WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL LLWS AT MSS AND SLK.
ASIDE FROM THAT, VFR SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10-12 KTS.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM GREAT LAKES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WOULD BE FROM SLK AND POINTS EAST. I`VE SHOWN 6SM +SHRA IN
TAFS, TIMING 18-20Z THRU 01Z PER LATEST HI- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS
DURING THE DAY BUT TEND TO STAY SUSTAINED AT 10-12 KTS TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH AND
WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 0230Z WILL CONTINUE EWD MOTION AROUND
25-30 KTS INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN NY. ALREADY
SEEING SOME IR CLOUD TOP WARMING DURING PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
ONTARIO WITH MCS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT PROGGED INCREASE IN
LOW- LEVEL JET (50KTS AT KMSS AT 900MB BY 10Z) WILL POTENTIALLY
LEND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA DURING THE PRE- DAWN
HRS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 06Z AND THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ACROSS VT...GENERALLY DRY AND MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE MOST FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT. OVERALL FOG
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY ANVIL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING EWD AND
LIMITED RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM VFR/MVFR RAIN FROM WEAKENING
GREAT LAKES MCS AFFECTING MSS THROUGH 12Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. GREATER
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS NEARING
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MSS
SHORTLY. I CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND WILL AMEND IF A
MORE IMMINENT THREAT BUT FOR NOW I`VE TREATED AS 6SM RA. LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY SITE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHELRY WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL LLWS AT MSS AND SLK.
ASIDE FROM THAT, VFR SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10-12 KTS.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM GREAT LAKES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WOULD BE FROM SLK AND POINTS EAST. I`VE SHOWN 6SM +SHRA IN
TAFS, TIMING 18-20Z THRU 01Z PER LATEST HI- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS
DURING THE DAY BUT TEND TO STAY SUSTAINED AT 10-12 KTS TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTO
00004000
RMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH AND
WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 0230Z WILL CONTINUE EWD MOTION AROUND
25-30 KTS INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN NY. ALREADY
SEEING SOME IR CLOUD TOP WARMING DURING PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
ONTARIO WITH MCS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT PROGGED INCREASE IN
LOW- LEVEL JET (50KTS AT KMSS AT 900MB BY 10Z) WILL POTENTIALLY
LEND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA DURING THE PRE- DAWN
HRS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 06Z AND THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ACROSS VT...GENERALLY DRY AND MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE MOST FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT. OVERALL FOG
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY ANVIL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING EWD AND
LIMITED RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM VFR/MVFR RAIN FROM WEAKENING
GREAT LAKES MCS AFFECTING MSS THROUGH 12Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. GREATER
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS NEARING
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MSS
SHORTLY. I CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND WILL AMEND IF A
MORE IMMINENT THREAT BUT FOR NOW I`VE TREATED AS 6SM RA. LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY SITE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHELRY WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL LLWS AT MSS AND SLK.
ASIDE FROM THAT, VFR SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10-12 KTS.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM GREAT LAKES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WOULD BE FROM SLK AND POINTS EAST. I`VE SHOWN 6SM +SHRA IN
TAFS, TIMING 18-20Z THRU 01Z PER LATEST HI- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS
DURING THE DAY BUT TEND TO STAY SUSTAINED AT 10-12 KTS TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH AND
WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 0230Z WILL CONTINUE EWD MOTION AROUND
25-30 KTS INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN NY. ALREADY
SEEING SOME IR CLOUD TOP WARMING DURING PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
ONTARIO WITH MCS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT PROGGED INCREASE IN
LOW- LEVEL JET (50KTS AT KMSS AT 900MB BY 10Z) WILL POTENTIALLY
LEND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA DURING THE PRE- DAWN
HRS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 06Z AND THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ACROSS VT...GENERALLY DRY AND MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE MOST FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT. OVERALL FOG
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY ANVIL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING EWD AND
LIMITED RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST STATIONS
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE HOURS AT KMSS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 05Z.

APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 13Z-20Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY PASS
OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-10Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOW
00004000
ERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH AND
WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 0230Z WILL CONTINUE EWD MOTION AROUND
25-30 KTS INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN NY. ALREADY
SEEING SOME IR CLOUD TOP WARMING DURING PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
ONTARIO WITH MCS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT PROGGED INCREASE IN
LOW- LEVEL JET (50KTS AT KMSS AT 900MB BY 10Z) WILL POTENTIALLY
LEND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA DURING THE PRE- DAWN
HRS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 06Z AND THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ACROSS VT...GENERALLY DRY AND MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE MOST FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT. OVERALL FOG
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY ANVIL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING EWD AND
LIMITED RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST STATIONS
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE HOURS AT KMSS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 05Z.

APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 13Z-20Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY PASS
OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-10Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH AND
WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 0230Z WILL CONTINUE EWD MOTION AROUND
25-30 KTS INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN NY. ALREADY
SEEING SOME IR CLOUD TOP WARMING DURING PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
ONTARIO WITH MCS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT PROGGED INCREASE IN
LOW- LEVEL JET (50KTS AT KMSS AT 900MB BY 10Z) WILL POTENTIALLY
LEND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA DURING THE PRE- DAWN
HRS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 06Z AND THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ACROSS VT...GENERALLY DRY AND MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE MOST FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT. OVERALL FOG
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY ANVIL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING EWD AND
LIMITED RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST STATIONS
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE HOURS AT KMSS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 05Z.

APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 13Z-20Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY PASS
OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-10Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
00004000
. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH AND
WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 0230Z WILL CONTINUE EWD MOTION AROUND
25-30 KTS INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN NY. ALREADY
SEEING SOME IR CLOUD TOP WARMING DURING PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
ONTARIO WITH MCS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT PROGGED INCREASE IN
LOW- LEVEL JET (50KTS AT KMSS AT 900MB BY 10Z) WILL POTENTIALLY
LEND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA DURING THE PRE- DAWN
HRS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 06Z AND THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ACROSS VT...GENERALLY DRY AND MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE MOST FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT. OVERALL FOG
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY ANVIL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING EWD AND
LIMITED RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST STATIONS
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE HOURS AT KMSS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 05Z.

APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 13Z-20Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY PASS
OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-10Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH AND
WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 0230Z WILL CONTINUE EWD MOTION AROUND
25-30 KTS INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN NY. ALREADY
SEEING SOME IR CLOUD TOP WARMING DURING PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
ONTARIO WITH MCS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT PROGGED INCREASE IN
LOW- LEVEL JET (50KTS AT KMSS AT 900MB BY 10Z) WILL POTENTIALLY
LEND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA DURING THE PRE- DAWN
HRS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 06Z AND THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ACROSS VT...GENERALLY DRY AND MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE MOST FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT. OVERALL FOG
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY ANVIL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING EWD AND
LIMITED RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST STATIONS
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE HOURS AT KMSS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 05Z.

APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 13Z-20Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY PASS
OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-10Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDA
00004000
Y AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1032 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH AND
WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 0230Z WILL CONTINUE EWD MOTION AROUND
25-30 KTS INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN NY. ALREADY
SEEING SOME IR CLOUD TOP WARMING DURING PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
ONTARIO WITH MCS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT PROGGED INCREASE IN
LOW- LEVEL JET (50KTS AT KMSS AT 900MB BY 10Z) WILL POTENTIALLY
LEND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA DURING THE PRE- DAWN
HRS AS MCS CONTINUES EWD. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO MAINTAIN MARGINAL
ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 06Z AND THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ACROSS VT...GENERALLY DRY AND MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE MOST FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT. OVERALL FOG
POTENTIAL LIMITED BY ANVIL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING EWD AND
LIMITED RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST STATIONS
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE HOURS AT KMSS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 05Z.

APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 13Z-20Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY PASS
OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-10Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VER
00004000
Y WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CL
00004000
IMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
814 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY PER WARMING IR
CLOUD TOPS, DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, AND GENERAL DECREASE
IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PER U.S./CANADIAN RADAR MOSAICS. MCS IS
ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT RAP-BASED SBCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN NY. DID INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS 01-03Z BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...BUT KEPT THUNDER MENTION ISOLD. COULD SEE UP TO
0.25" RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE 01-03Z PERIOD. DRY AND PLEASANT ELSEWHERE
THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE 06-12Z WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACROSS LWR MI/LAKE HURON MOVING EWD...AND MAY BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS ARE MARGINAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S (AND UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY)...SO ANTICIPATE
DECREASING INTENSITY TRENDS DESPITE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE
THERE MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER 
00004000
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST STATIONS
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE HOURS AT KMSS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 05Z.

APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 13Z-20Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY PASS
OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-10Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
814 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY PER WARMING IR
CLOUD TOPS, DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, AND GENERAL DECREASE
IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PER U.S./CANADIAN RADAR MOSAICS. MCS IS
ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT RAP-BASED SBCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN NY. DID INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS 01-03Z BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...BUT KEPT THUNDER MENTION ISOLD. COULD SEE UP TO
0.25" RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE 01-03Z PERIOD. DRY AND PLEASANT ELSEWHERE
THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE 06-12Z WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACROSS LWR MI/LAKE HURON MOVING EWD...AND MAY BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS ARE MARGINAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S (AND UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY)...SO ANTICIPATE
DECREASING INTENSITY TRENDS DESPITE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE
THERE MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST STATIONS
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE HOURS AT KMSS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 05Z.

APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 13Z-20Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY PASS
OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-10Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
814 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY PER WARMING IR
CLOUD TOPS, DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, AND GENERAL DECREASE
IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PER U.S./CANADIAN RADAR MOSAICS. MCS IS
ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT RAP-BASED SBCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN NY. DID INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS 01-03Z BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...BUT KEPT THUNDER MENTION ISOLD. COULD SEE UP TO
0.25" RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE 01-03Z PERIOD. DRY AND PLEASANT ELSEWHERE
THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE 06-12Z WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACROSS LWR MI/LAKE HURON MOVING EWD...AND MAY BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS ARE MARGINAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S (AND UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY)...SO ANTICIPATE
DECREASING INTENSITY TRENDS DESPITE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE
THERE MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNI
00004000
GHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST STATIONS
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE HOURS AT KMSS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 05Z.

APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 13Z-20Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY PASS
OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-10Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
814 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY PER WARMING IR
CLOUD TOPS, DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, AND GENERAL DECREASE
IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PER U.S./CANADIAN RADAR MOSAICS. MCS IS
ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT RAP-BASED SBCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN NY. DID INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS 01-03Z BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...BUT KEPT THUNDER MENTION ISOLD. COULD SEE UP TO
0.25" RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE 01-03Z PERIOD. DRY AND PLEASANT ELSEWHERE
THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE 06-12Z WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACROSS LWR MI/LAKE HURON MOVING EWD...AND MAY BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS ARE MARGINAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S (AND UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY)...SO ANTICIPATE
DECREASING INTENSITY TRENDS DESPITE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE
THERE MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST STATIONS
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE HOURS AT KMSS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 05Z.

APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 13Z-20Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY PASS
OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-10Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 022353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...QUITE ANICE SUMMER EVENING ACROSS THE LAND
WITH ONLY SOME DISSIPATING CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS
WERE STILL IN THE 50S...BUT WARM WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...70S HIGHLANDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...REALLY NOT MUCH TO TINKER WITH...EXCEPT HAD TO
ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS WHICH WERE GENERALLY NOT WARM ENOUGH.
HOWEVER...LOWS LOOK RIGHT ON TARGET.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER LINEO OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER STORMS HAD DEVELOPED TO THE LEE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS ALL LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CON
00004000
TINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 022353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...QUITE ANICE SUMMER EVENING ACROSS THE LAND
WITH ONLY SOME DISSIPATING CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS
WERE STILL IN THE 50S...BUT WARM WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
LOWER 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...70S HIGHLANDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...REALLY NOT MUCH TO TINKER WITH...EXCEPT HAD TO
ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS WHICH WERE GENERALLY NOT WARM ENOUGH.
HOWEVER...LOWS LOOK RIGHT ON TARGET.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER LINEO OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER STORMS HAD DEVELOPED TO THE LEE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS ALL LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 022342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY PER WARMING IR
CLOUD TOPS, DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, AND GENERAL DECREASE
IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVTY PER U.S./CANADIAN RADAR MOSAICS. MCS IS
ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT RAP-BASED SBCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN NY. DID INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS 01-03Z BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...BUT KEPT THUNDER MENTION ISOLD. COULD SEE UP TO
0.25" RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE 01-03Z PERIOD. DRY AND PLEASANT ELSEWHERE
THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE 06-12Z WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACROSS LWR MI/LAKE HURON MOVING EWD...AND MAY BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC FIE
00004000
LDS ARE MARGINAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S (AND UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY)...SO ANTICIPATE
DECREASING INTENSITY TRENDS DESPITE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE
THERE MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 022342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT SUNDAY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY PER WARMING IR
CLOUD TOPS, DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, AND GENERAL DECREASE
IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVTY PER U.S./CANADIAN RADAR MOSAICS. MCS IS
ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT RAP-BASED SBCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN NY. DID INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS 01-03Z BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...BUT KEPT THUNDER MENTION ISOLD. COULD SEE UP TO
0.25" RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE 01-03Z PERIOD. DRY AND PLEASANT ELSEWHERE
THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE 06-12Z WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACROSS LWR MI/LAKE HURON MOVING EWD...AND MAY BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS ARE MARGINAL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S (AND UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY)...SO ANTICIPATE
DECREASING INTENSITY TRENDS DESPITE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE
THERE MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 021943
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE BETWEEN 20-30F SO ANY
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
GROUND /VIRGA/. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
THE CU FIELD WITH A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18
00001490
Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/
00004000
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 021943
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE BETWEEN 20-30F SO ANY
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
GROUND /VIRGA/. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
THE CU FIELD WITH A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 021943
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE BETWEEN 20-30F SO ANY
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
GROUND /VIRGA/. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
THE CU FIELD WITH A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS 
00004000
IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 021943
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE BETWEEN 20-30F SO ANY
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
GROUND /VIRGA/. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
THE CU FIELD WITH A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO
APPROACH OF MCS WHICH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE THERE MAY ALSO BE
A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL D
000002B6
IMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS 
00004000
MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO
APPROACH OF MCS WHICH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE THERE MAY ALSO BE
A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO
APPROACH OF MCS WHICH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE THERE MAY ALSO BE
A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP T
000009CE
HE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2
00004000
 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO
APPROACH OF MCS WHICH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE THERE MAY ALSO BE
A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO
APPROACH OF MCS WHICH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS BEING EAST OF THE GREENS WHERE THERE MAY ALSO BE
A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MONDAY.
SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAMPERED A BIT BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. PLENTY OF SHEAR HOWEVER WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS EXPECTED. SPC HAS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER ADIRONDACKS AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 20Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 EASTERN VERMONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION
AND POSITION OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR TUESDAY THAN
ON MONDAY...BUT SHEAR LESS. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVAT
00004000
IONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...
00010000
WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021857
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
257 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021857
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
257 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 021733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SE
0001EB58
CONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...NWS ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 021733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...NWS ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 021733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...NWS ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 021733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT MVFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH MIST AT KPOU AND KPSF.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THROUGH 08/09Z WHEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITES ASSOCIATED WITH MIST/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN VFR AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT FORMING BY THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERLY AT KALB AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...NWS ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO
15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SW.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND
KMSS RESPECTIVELY.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021640
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021640
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED
CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 021359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
959 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 021359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
959 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 021359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
959 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. CONTINUED WARM BUT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 HPA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
RADOME CONCLUDES. IT SHOULD BE BACK OPERATIONAL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER FOR THIS MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES FOR BALANCE OF
MORNING HOURS COURTESY OF WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR
NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY
HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER FOR THIS MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES FOR BALANCE OF
MORNING HOURS COURTESY OF WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR
NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY
HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR LATEST SURFACE TEMPS AND SKY COVER, OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR
NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT- WAVE
TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY
HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR LATEST SURFACE TEMPS AND SKY COVER, OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR
NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT- WAVE
TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY
HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR LATEST SURFACE TEMPS AND SKY COVER, OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR
NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT- WAVE
TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY
HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR LATEST SURFACE TEMPS AND SKY COVER, OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR
NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT- WAVE
TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY
HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021101
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED
FOR NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021101
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED
FOR NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5 TO 10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE
15-18KT RANGE FROM 15-22Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AT THE KMSS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY, DRY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 021046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR...WARM...AND PLEASANT SUMMERS DAY IS ON TAP TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE
HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A FAIR AND WARM SUMMERS DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH THE
RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS
AND BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER 
00004000
VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 021046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR...WARM...AND PLEASANT SUMMERS DAY IS ON TAP TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE
HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A FAIR AND WARM SUMMERS DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH THE
RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS
AND BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST.
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING
HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR FOG AT KPOU AND KPSF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 020908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTEN AND
BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRE
00004000
NT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING
INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND PLACING THE LOCAL
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 020908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTEN AND
BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING
INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND PLACING THE LOCAL
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 020908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTEN AND
BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING
INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
00004000
COAST AND PLACING THE LOCAL
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 020908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTEN AND
BECOMES ZONAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 13 TO 15
DEGREES TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS READINGS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
ON THE RISE ESPECIALLY LATE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT AND BREEZY MONDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SBCAPES VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE FORMATION
OF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND HUMID ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION...MUD HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A
LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH
ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH RIDGING BEING
INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND PLACING THE LOCAL
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIR AND WARM SUMMER`S DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO SOME
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN TODAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020834
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED
FOR NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMSS/KSLK/KMSS
TERMINALS, BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRENDING
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASU
00004000
LA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM/MV/WASULA
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020834
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED
FOR NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE BRIEFLY ZONAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND
DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S
TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES
NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC.
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN
VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850
LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE
VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA
IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY
EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S
FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMSS/KSLK/KMSS
TERMINALS, BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRENDING
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KGM/MV/WASULA
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT/ERN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN
DACKS. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO
L50S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMSS/KSLK/KMSS
TERMINALS, BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRENDING
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT/ERN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN
DACKS. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO
L50S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMSS/KSLK/KMSS
TERMINALS, BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRENDING
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY
IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK
TERMINALS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 020539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS AREA AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. SEASONABLE LOWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 50S. WINDS WILL CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
00004000
 SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE WEEKEND
AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH
INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR
VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR
PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE
HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH
RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 020539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS AREA AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. SEASONABLE LOWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 50S. WINDS WILL CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE WEEKEND
AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH
INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR
VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR
PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE
HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH
RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 020539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE 
00004000
MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS AREA AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. SEASONABLE LOWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 50S. WINDS WILL CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE WEEKEND
AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH
INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR
VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR
SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR
PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE
HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY CANADA. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS IN THAT AREA WITH
RIDGING BEING INDUCED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT ON FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/MONDAY.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING IS FOR THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT WOULD BE IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG WOULD BE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z.

CALM TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. HOWEVER IT WILL NEED
TO TAKEN OFFLINE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME
CONTINUES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.
00004000

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020505
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND 
00004000
STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 020227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 1015 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS AS IF
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

SO...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH A
LIGHT OR NO WIND...AND DEWPOINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES
IN MANY CASES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES.
SOME OF THE COOLEST SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 020227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 1015 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS AS IF
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

SO...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH A
LIGHT OR NO WIND...AND DEWPOINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES
IN MANY CASES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES.
SOME OF THE COOLEST SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUG
00004000
H SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 020227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 1015 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS AS IF
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

SO...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH A
LIGHT OR NO WIND...AND DEWPOINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES
IN MANY CASES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES.
SOME OF THE COOLEST SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 020227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 1015 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS AS IF
THESE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

SO...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH A
LIGHT OR NO WIND...AND DEWPOINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES
IN MANY CASES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A FEW DEGREES...INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES.
SOME OF THE COOLEST SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 50S.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS WITH
A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND
00004000
 CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
00004000
 CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIA
00004000
TION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL
REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 020000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...REALLY NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW SHOWERS JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHWEST OF ULSTER COUNTY SO WE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THOSE AREAS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT IS A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
SURPRESSED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. A GUSTY WEST BREEZE WILL
ABATE AFTER SUNDOWN. TEMPERATURES...STILL AROUND 80 IN THE
VALLEYS....70S HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP PRETTY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN DUE TO A LIGHTER WIND...MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
THE LOW DEWPOINTS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE YET ANOTHER
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN EXITING THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 020000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...REALLY NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THERE WERE STILL A FEW SHOWERS JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHWEST OF ULSTER COUNTY SO WE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THOSE AREAS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT IS A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
SURPRESSED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. A GUSTY WEST BREEZE WILL
ABATE AFTER SUNDOWN. TEMPERATURES...STILL AROUND 80 IN THE
VALLEYS....70S HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP PRETTY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN DUE TO A LIGHTER WIND...MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
THE LOW DEWPOINTS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE YET ANOTHER
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD
TOUCH OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN EXITING THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VER
00004000
Y MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY ON THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. THEY LOOK TO GET DOWN TO 55 TO AROUND
60 MOST PLACES...50-55 IN THE COOLER THAT OUTLYING REGIONS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER
MILD END TO THE WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. COUPLE THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. ALL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE GONE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MVFR RADIATIONAL FOG MIGHT FORM AT MAINLY
KPSF. WE PLACED MIFG IN THE KGFL TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME FOG WILL FORM BUT RIGHT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO EVEN PLACE MVFR
IN.

THE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WAS CALCULATED IN THE MID 50S...AND WE
ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID 50S AT KPSF AND KGFL.

RIGHT NOW WE LEAN WITH NO FOG AT KPOU OR KALB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

ANY AND ALL FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE
TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THE WIND WILL TURN SW AT ALL THE
TAF SITES ON SUNDAY 5-10KTS...GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF
BY 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR WAS BACK UP AND RUNNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE NEEDED TO OFF LINE ONE MORE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 012344
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 012344
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGIO
00004000
N LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 012344
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 012344
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT
SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 011951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. H
00002519
AVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 011951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTAINED SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND LIKELY SOME
SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER WITH STORMS
DECREASING/EXITING VERMONT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ANTICIPATED. AS
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
LATER ON THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER
OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND
SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND
JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN
THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 011946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330PM EDT...SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WAS SLIDING THROUGH LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES.
IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS QUITE LIMITED AS ECHO
TOPS WERE RATHER LOW AND SBCAPES WERE AROUND 1K J/KG OR LESS.
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS FEATURE WHILE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-7
C/KM/...THE CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. WE WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE THE
LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MINIMAL
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AND BRIEF
HEIGHT RISES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS DEWPOINTS
WERE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
50S...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE
WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE
THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH 
00004000
AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK.  SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST FORCING IS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS AT
KPSF...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIGS AT 5-8 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST SITES ANY
THERE WON/T BE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM. SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLCE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME.
WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS PLEASE UTILIZE NEIGHBORING RADAR
SITES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 011946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330PM EDT...SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WAS SLIDING THROUGH LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES.
IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS QUITE LIMITED AS ECHO
TOPS WERE RATHER LOW AND SBCAPES WERE AROUND 1K J/KG OR LESS.
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS FEATURE WHILE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-7
C/KM/...THE CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. WE WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE THE
LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MINIMAL
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AND BRIEF
HEIGHT RISES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS DEWPOINTS
WERE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
50S...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE
WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE
THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK.  SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST FORCING IS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS AT
KPSF...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIGS AT 5-8 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST SITES ANY
THERE WON/T BE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM. SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLCE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME.
WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS PLEASE UTILIZE NEIGHBORING RADAR
SITES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 011946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPS
00004000
IS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330PM EDT...SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WAS SLIDING THROUGH LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES.
IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS QUITE LIMITED AS ECHO
TOPS WERE RATHER LOW AND SBCAPES WERE AROUND 1K J/KG OR LESS.
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS FEATURE WHILE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-7
C/KM/...THE CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. WE WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE THE
LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MINIMAL
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AND BRIEF
HEIGHT RISES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS DEWPOINTS
WERE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
50S...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE
WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE
THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK.  SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOME
SORT OF WAVE WAVE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS (POSSIBLY EVEN A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN) NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY (FRIDAY ON THE CANADIAN
MID RANGE MODEL). FOR NOW...GENERALLY WENT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SHOWERS STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE TIME TO ADJUST
THE POPS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOUDS AND RAINIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...IT COULD BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.

IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...SO FOR NOW...GENERALLY
WENT WENT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WHICH ASSUME A THINNER
CLOUD COVER AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IF THE CANADIAN
MODEL PANS OUT HIGHS WOULD BE LOWER AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...BOTH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS
INDICATED SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE COAST MUCH
LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. ON THIS DAY...CALLED IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
30 POPS OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO ONLY BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST FORCING IS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS AT
KPSF...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIGS AT 5-8 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST SITES ANY
THERE WON/T BE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM. SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLCE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS WERE TO OCCUR. RIVERS ARE RATHER LOW AND
IMPACT FROM THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT WITHIN BANK RIVER
RISES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED
IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME.
WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS PLEASE UTILIZE NEIGHBORING RADAR
SITES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 011946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND A PASSING SHOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330PM EDT...SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WAS SLIDING THROUGH LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES.
IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS QUITE LIMITED AS ECHO
TOPS WERE RATHER LOW AND SBCAPES WERE AROUND 1K J/KG OR LESS.
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS FEATURE WHILE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-7
C/KM/...THE CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. WE WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE THE
LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MINIMAL
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AND BRIEF
HEIGHT RISES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS DEWPOINTS
WERE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR
50S...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD END TO THE
WEEKEND AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. COUPLE
THAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING OR SLIGHTLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY AS WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND MAGNITUDES AS GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASE
ALOFT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AMPLIFY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW.
WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MAY
DEVELOP AN ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE DACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IMPACTING
THE REGION WITH FROPA TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SBCAPES 1-2K J/KG...SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 TO -4C AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING YET THE
LCL/S LOOK RATHER HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME /AOB H850/.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY
POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC CURRENT OUTLOOK /WHICH DOES NOT
UPDATE DURING THE DAY SHIFTS FOR SWODY3 AND BEYOND/ REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK AS WE WILL COORDINATE ANY FUTURE UPGRADES
TO THE OUTLOOK.  SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO
AS PWATS RISE BACK TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED AT TIMES...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-90...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT SEASONABLE THAT DAY...80-85
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE IT TURNS A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS 55-60 ALBANY
SOUTH...50-55 FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH
SUNSHINE AS A COLD POOL ALOFT MAKES FOR INCREASI