000
FXUS61 KALY 222332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #210 REMAINS IN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
FOR HERKIMER...HAMILTON...MONTGOMERY...FULTON...WARREN...SARATOGA
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
THIS AREA AND HAVE THE BETTER SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT IS AGREEMENT HANDLING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE KEEP FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS. USED
SCATTERED FOR COVERAGE WHERE WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT.

AS OF 433 PM EDT...MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST. SOME
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE IN SCHENECTADY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...HEAVY RAINFALL...RADAR ESTIMATE SHOWS 2-3 INCHES HAS
LED TO URBAN FLOODING IN SCHENECTADY COUNTY.

WITH MCS-LIKE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT/FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE EAST.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO ACTIVITY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST LAKE BREEZES ARE FORCING ISOLD
TSRA. HRRR SHOWS LAKE BREEZE TO BLOSSOM WITH CONVECTION INTO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LARGER SCALE ASCENT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD FROM LOWER LAKES. INSTABILITY HAS RECOVERED ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES IN 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VALUES
INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. WILL CARRY ENHANCED WORDING TO COINCIDE
WITH WATCH...THEN SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT AS
WAIT TO SEE HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...NOT CLEARING
CWA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

SLOWLY MOVING FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENVIRONMENT FOR BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY...ONLY SLOWLY DROPPING OFF INTO FRIDAY.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET TOMORROW BRINGS RIGHT REAR QUAD INTO
FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DISCUSSION
ON FLOOD RISK.

SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW IS NOT CLEAR CUT NOW. MODEL CAPE LOOKS
TO BE IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR RESPECTABLE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT
5.5C/KM. SPC HAS REGION IN SEE TEXT. FROM TODAY/S VANTAGE POINT
THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...SOME DIMINISHING IN
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR PART OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF COMING
INTO AGREEMENT ON CUT OFF MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM DELMARVA INTO NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WITH CWA ON COOL SIDE OF
SURFACE LOW TRACK...INSTABILITY LOOKS NEAR NIL. SO NO MENTION OF
TSRA FOR FRIDAY.

MINS ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ADIRONDACKS ARE FORECAST IN MID 30S.
THIS WOULD MEAN THREAT OF FROST GIVEN BEGINNING OF THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A WET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF COAST NEAR CAPE
COD AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES MAINTAINING THIS UPPER LOW WITH IT MOVING
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. THE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLOW THE FRONT`S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND THROW RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY. THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER RIDGING NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN UNTIL TUESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE HIGH SHOULD HOLD ON FOR WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CHILLY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY WITH THE HELP
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

NIGHTTIME LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE GROWING
SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TONIGHT WILL DOMINATE
THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR VCSH/VCTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO FUEL THESE STORMS. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT KGFL/KALB TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REMNANT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE...THE THREAT FOR VCSH WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE
WESTERN NY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A COMBINATION OF SATURATED
LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. KGFL/KPOU MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO IFR LEVELS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...WITH EXPECTED
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. FLYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH PERIODS OF IFR ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS INTO THE TAFS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO 5-10 KNOTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THU-THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
5-7.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE OF 2.25
INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 4 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. WHILE NOT QUITE READY TO ACCEPT TOTALS OF EURO AND
GFS...ENOUGH GUIDANCE AVAILABLE TO AT LEAST WARRANT POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN HWO. FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME
TOMORROW WITH SLOWLY MOVING FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA
HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO
BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST.

WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOOD OR
FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY INTO WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...IAA/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...OKEEFE
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 222033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST. SOME REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE
IN SCHENECTADY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...HEAVY
RAINFALL...RADAR ESTIMATE SHOWS 2-3 INCHES HAS LED TO URBAN
FLOODING IN SCHENECTADY COUNTY.

WITH MCS-LIKE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT/FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE EAST.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO ACTIVITY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST LAKE BREEZES ARE FORCING ISOLD
TSRA. HRRR SHOWS LAKE BREEZE TO BLOSSOM WITH CONVECTION INTO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LARGER SCALE ASCENT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD FROM LOWER LAKES. INSTABILITY HAS RECOVERED ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES IN 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VALUES
INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. WILL CARRY ENHANCED WORDING TO COINCIDE
WITH WATCH...THEN SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT AS
WAIT TO SEE HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...NOT CLEARING
CWA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

SLOWLY MOVING FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENVIRONMENT FOR BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY...ONLY SLOWLY DROPPING OFF INTO FRIDAY.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET TOMORROW BRINGS RIGHT REAR QUAD INTO
FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DISCUSSION
ON FLOOD RISK.

SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW IS NOT CLEAR CUT NOW. MODEL CAPE LOOKS
TO BE IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR RESPECTABLE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT
5.5C/KM. SPC HAS REGION IN SEE TEXT. FROM TODAY/S VANTAGE POINT
THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...SOME DIMINISHING IN
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR PART OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF COMING
INTO AGREEMENT ON CUT OFF MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM DELMARVA INTO NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WITH CWA ON COOL SIDE OF
SURFACE LOW TRACK...INSTABILITY LOOKS NEAR NIL. SO NO MENTION OF
TSRA FOR FRIDAY.

MINS ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ADIRONDACKS ARE FORECAST IN MID 30S.
THIS WOULD MEAN THREAT OF FROST GIVEN BEGINNING OF THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A WET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF COAST NEAR CAPE
COD AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES MAINTAINING THIS UPPER LOW WITH IT MOVING
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. THE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLOW THE FRONT`S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND THROW RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY. THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER RIDGING NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN UNTIL TUESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE HIGH SHOULD HOLD ON FOR WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CHILLY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY WITH THE HELP
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

NIGHTTIME LOWS O
00004000
VER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE GROWING
SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR PREVAILING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED -SHRA AND TSRA WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT OR BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z.  CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO CLEAR
OUT...PARTICULARLY THE HIGH-LEVEL CI/CS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THE PROLIFERATION OF TS.  HIGH DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN SOME HAZY FOG...MAINLY MVFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
FOG POSS AT KPSF WHERE WINDS THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE LIGHTER.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MORE TS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SHEAR DURING THE EARLY NIGHT EXCEPT
AT KPSF...35 KNOTS SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.  SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...PICKING UP TO SPEEDS ON THURSDAY
AVERAGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU PM AND NGT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI-FRI NGT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
5-7.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE OF 2.25
INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 4 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. WHILE NOT QUITE READY TO ACCEPT TOTALS OF EURO AND
GFS...ENOUGH GUIDANCE AVAILABLE TO AT LEAST WARRANT POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN HWO. FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME
TOMORROW WITH SLOWLY MOVING FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA
HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO
BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST.

WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOOD OR
FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY INTO WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...OKEEFE
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...OKEEFE

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 10PM...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THRU 10PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA LIFTS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
END BY ABOUT 11PM. THEN SYNOPTIC FEATURE BRINGS RENEWED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES. SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED ENHANCED WORDING. LOWS WILL BE
ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT
500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE NWP QPF LOOKED ON THE LOW
SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER
TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+" RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED
2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY FRIDAY. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION BELOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE
DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL NOT A VERY CLEAR CUT FORECAST
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT IT`S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SOME RAIN -- AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MEMORIAL DAY AND AFTER DOES
LOOK DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW:

SATURDAY: DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. NAM PUSHES
THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE OUT THE QUICKEST AND WOULD FEATURE A
PRETTY DRY DAY, WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z EURO ARE PRETTY SIMILAR
FEATURING A "BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES" WET DAY AS THEY HOLD BACK
THE TROF AND LOW THE LONGEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FEATURE A SLUG
OF HEAVY RAIN, PROBABLY ACROSS VERMONT -- AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN FLOODING ISSUES. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT QUICKER, BUT
STILL FEATURE PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAY. GIVEN A BIG OMEGA BLOCK
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC, THAT MEANS EVERYTHING WILL
SLOW DOWN. THUS FEEL THE FAST NAM NEEDS TO BE DISCARDED, BUT THE
GFS/EURO COMBO MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOW. AT THE END OF MY THOUGHT
PROCESS THOUGH, FELT IT NECESSARY TO INCREASE POPS -- WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT WHERE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW OFF
THE COAST. ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND A LITTLE BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN COULD COME BACK TO THE `DACKS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL, 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GONNA BE A DAMP/DREARY DAY. ADDING TO THE MISERY WILL BE
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST UPWARDS
OF 25 MPH. COME SATURDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD RESULT IN
A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW AT ELEVATIONS PRIMARILY ABOVE 2500FT.

SUNDAY: WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING BACK
SO THAT I EXPECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. HAVE PLACED LOW CHANCE POPS
BACK TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH HIGHER IN EASTERN VERMONT. NEW
YORK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY LATE IN THE DAY, CLOUDS SHOULD BE
BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL BE CHILLY AND CONTINUED
BREEZY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 0C.
EVEN IN PERFECTLY SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS, THIS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT
VALLEY HIGHS ABOUT 60F. WITH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW,
I SUSPECT LOW 50S WILL BE IT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS, I`M
EXPECTING A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. MAYBE ACCUMULATING TO 1" OR SO ON
MANSFIELD BY MID-DAY.

MEMORIAL DAY: GETTING BETTER AND WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR ALL
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. PERHAPS RESIDUAL CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE
EAST, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. STILL COOL ALOFT, BUT 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO ABOUT 4C, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGHS ABOUT 10F
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. LOTS OF LOW-MID 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 50S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

DO NEED TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EURO IS JUST COMING IN, AND IT
SUGGESTS AN EVEN SLOWER MOVE OUT OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. IN
FACT, IF THAT MODEL FORECAST ENDS UP PERFECT, THEN EVEN MONDAY
WILL BE CLOUDY/COOL/SOME RAIN -- VERY MUCH LIKE SUNDAY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN, ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. EACH DAY SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 7 WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE -- SO SHOULD BE SOME NICE DAYS
(AGAIN ASSUMING THINGS DONT COME TO A COMPLETE STANDSTILL AND
KEEP US SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGH).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITHIN SHOWERS AND LIFR/IFR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS. KSLK ALREADY EXPERIENCING SOME TS...WITH KRUT
SEEING MVFR CIGS IN RAIN SHOWERS. KPBG/KBTV AND KMPV WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HRS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. KMSS JUST NORTH OF BEST INSTABILITY...BUT WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE SOME CONVECTION.

AFTER THE STORMS AND SHOWERS TAPER OFF...MAINLY AFTER
06Z...MOISTURE WHERE IS HAS RAINED WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS...BUT
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE S-SW WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... UNSETTLED WX WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACRS
OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH MVFR...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
350 PM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
PAST 24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY
ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT
MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM/TABER
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THRU 10PM.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN VCNTY OF
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC TROUGH AND 850MB TEMP GRADIENT SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE
IS UP NEAR THE INTL BORDER...BUT GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THAT HAS OCCURRED IN SEVERAL WAVES DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS...THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF NY INTO NWRN CT WHERE LARGE MESOSCALE COLD POOL HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED.

THERE ARE SLIGHT 700-500MB HEIGHT RISES THIS MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN...AND ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY THRU ABOUT 19Z. CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN THRU MID
AFTN...WILL TREND SKY COVER FROM OVC TO BKN BY NOONTIME.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A SWLY BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF 850MB
FLOW ACROSS WRN PA INTO CENTRAL NY PER MODEL GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
S-CENTRAL VT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS ALL BUT NERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 21-00Z. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...UP TO 1500 J/KG...THOUGH
SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE HERE. BASED ON CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF...LOOKING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LATE DAY/EVENING TSTMS AS WELL. SPC
CALIBRATED SVR PROBABILITIES AND DAY 1 OUTLOOK SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...AND MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST AND HWO FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING. DEEP LAYER (SFC-6KM)
SHEAR EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LONG-LIVED
UPDRAFTS. 00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF 1.52"...AND NWD
ADVECTION OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
AFTN TEMPS TODAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE
LATE MORNING-MID AFTN PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SOME INTERVALS OF SUN
TODAY...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +14C COULD WARM QUICKLY DURING
THE EARLY AFTN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S...BUT COULD REACH 80F IF WE GET A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE AND INSOLATIONAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CONTINUED EMBEDDED TSTMS. SOME DECREASE IN
CAPE OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT ENHANCED WIND/HAIL WORDING JUST THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE
NWP QPF LOOKED ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+"
RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION
BELOW. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION.
00004000
 SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD.
COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL NOT A VERY CLEAR CUT FORECAST
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT IT`S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SOME RAIN -- AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO SUNDAY
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MEMORIAL DAY AND AFTER DOES LOOK
DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW:

SATURDAY: DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. NAM PUSHES
THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE OUT THE QUICKEST AND WOULD FEATURE A
PRETTY DRY DAY, WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z EURO ARE PRETTY SIMILAR
FEATURING A "BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES" WET DAY AS THEY HOLD BACK
THE TROF AND LOW THE LONGEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FEATURE A SLUG
OF HEAVY RAIN, PROBABLY ACROSS VERMONT -- AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING ISSUES. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT QUICKER, BUT STILL
FEATURE PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAY. GIVEN A BIG OMEGA BLOCK
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC, THAT MEANS EVERYTHING WILL
SLOW DOWN. THUS FEEL THE FAST NAM NEEDS TO BE DISCARDED, BUT THE
GFS/EURO COMBO MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOW. AT THE END OF MY THOUGHT
PROCESS THOUGH, FELT IT NECESSARY TO INCREASE POPS -- WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT WHERE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW OFF
THE COAST. ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND A LITTLE BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN COULD COME BACK TO THE `DACKS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL, 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GONNA BE A DAMP/DREARY DAY. ADDING TO THE MISERY WILL BE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST UPWARDS OF 25
MPH. COME SATURDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
LITTLE BIT OF SNOW AT ELEVATIONS PRIMARILY ABOVE 2500FT.

SUNDAY: WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING BACK
SO THAT I EXPECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. HAVE PLACED LOW CHANCE POPS
BACK TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH HIGHER IN EASTERN VERMONT. NEW
YORK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY LATE IN THE DAY, CLOUDS SHOULD BE
BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL BE CHILLY AND CONTINUED
BREEZY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 0C.
EVEN IN PERFECTLY SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS, THIS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT
VALLEY HIGHS ABOUT 60F. WITH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW,
I SUSPECT LOW 50S WILL BE IT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS, I`M
EXPECTING A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. MAYBE ACCUMULATING TO 1" OR SO ON
MANSFIELD BY MID-DAY.

MEMORIAL DAY: GETTING BETTER AND WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR ALL
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. PERHAPS RESIDUAL CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST,
BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. STILL COOL ALOFT, BUT 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO ABOUT 4C, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGHS ABOUT 10F
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. LOTS OF LOW-MID 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 50S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

DO NEED TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EURO IS JUST COMING IN, AND IT
SUGGESTS AN EVEN SLOWER MOVE OUT OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. IN
FACT, IF THAT MODEL FORECAST ENDS UP PERFECT, THEN EVEN MONDAY
WILL BE CLOUDY/COOL/SOME RAIN -- VERY MUCH LIKE SUNDAY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN, ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. EACH DAY SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 7 WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE -- SO SHOULD BE SOME NICE DAYS
(AGAIN ASSUMING THINGS DONT COME TO A COMPLETE STANDSTILL AND KEEP
US SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGH).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITHIN SHOWERS AND LIFR/IFR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS. KSLK ALREADY EXPERIENCING SOME TS...WITH KRUT
SEEING MVFR CIGS IN RAIN SHOWERS. KPBG/KBTV AND KMPV WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HRS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. KMSS JUST NORTH OF BEST INSTABILITY...BUT WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE SOME CONVECTION.

AFTER THE STORMS AND SHOWERS TAPER OFF...MAINLY AFTER
06Z...MOISTURE WHERE IS HAS RAINED WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS...BUT
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE S-SW WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... UNSETTLED WX WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACRS
OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH MVFR...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
430AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
PAST 24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY
ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT
MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM/TABER
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 221753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST
FRIDAY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...AS THE WEATHER
MAY STAY UNSETTLED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED CAPES CLIMBING TO 1000 J/KG MAINLY TO THE
WEST OF HUDSON RIVER. BULK SHEAR IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ESPECIALLY
NORTH HALF OF CWA WHERE VALUES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. SO EXPECT STORM
MODE TO BE MAINLY MULTICELLULAR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH WIND ALSO A FACTOR.

WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE EASTERN ZONES WHERE RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES WAS RECORDED
LAST NIGHT. FLOW IS FAIRLY ROBUST...SO STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG.
HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING OF CELLS WILL LEAD TO ISSUES.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG
THU...TRANSITIONING TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR PREVAILING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED -SHRA AND TSRA WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT OR BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z.  CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO CLEAR
OUT...PARTICULARLY THE HIGH-LEVEL CI/CS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THE PROLIFERATION OF TS.  HIGH DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN SOME HAZY FOG...MAINLY MVFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
FOG POSS AT KPSF WHERE WINDS THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE LIGHTER.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MORE TS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SHEAR DURING THE EARLY NIGHT EXCEPT
AT KPSF...35 KNOTS SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.  SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...PICKING UP TO SPEEDS ON THURSDAY
AVERAGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU PM AND NGT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI-FRI NGT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THRU 10PM.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN VCNTY OF
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC TROUGH AND 850MB TEMP GRADIENT SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE
IS UP NEAR THE INTL BORDER...BUT GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THAT HAS OCCURRED IN SEVERAL WAVES DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS...THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF NY INTO NWRN CT WHERE LARGE MESOSCALE COLD POOL HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED.

THERE ARE SLIGHT 700-500MB HEIGHT RISES THIS MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN...AND ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY THRU ABOUT 19Z. CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN THRU MID
AFTN...WILL TREND SKY COVER FROM OVC TO BKN BY NOONTIME.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A SWLY BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF 850MB
FLOW ACROSS WRN PA INTO CENTRAL NY PER MODEL GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
S-CENTRAL VT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS ALL BUT NERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 21-00Z. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...UP TO 1500 J/KG...THOUGH
SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE HERE. BASED ON CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF...LOOKING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LATE DAY/EVENING TSTMS AS WELL. SPC
CALIBRATED SVR PROBABILITIES AND DAY 1 OUTLOOK SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE 
00000A23
STORMS...AND MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST AND HWO FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING. DEEP LAYER (SFC-6KM)
SHEAR EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LONG-LIVED
UPDRAFTS. 00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF 1.52"...AND NWD
ADVECTION OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
AFTN TEMPS TODAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE
LATE MORNING-MID AFTN PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SOME INTERVALS OF SUN
TODAY...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +14C COULD WARM QUICKLY DURING
THE EARLY AFTN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S...BUT COULD REACH 80F IF WE GET A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE AND INSOLATIONAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CONTINUED EMBEDDED TSTMS. SOME DECREASE IN
CAPE OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT ENHANCED WIND/HAIL WORDING JUST THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE
NWP QPF LOOKED ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+"
RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION
BELOW. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD.
COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FCST AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED TWD THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FCST...
00004000
WHICH SUPPORTS
THE MENTION OF RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF CRNT
TRENDS CONT FOR A MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION BY 12Z SAT...WHICH HELPS
TO PRODUCE A CLOSED AND SLOW MOVING 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NJ COAST TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE POSITION AND TRACK OF
CLOSED SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES...EXPECT HEAVIEST QPF
TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...BACKSIDE DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED MID LVL RH AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ITS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THESE BANDS AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP...THEREFORE WL JUST MENTION
CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FEEL SYSTEM WL SLIDE
JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SUNDAY TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. ON
SUNDAY...AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...LOOK FOR
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW 85H WINDS
BTWN 35 AND 45 KNOTS...WHICH WITH SOME MIXING WL SUPPORT GUSTS
BTWN 25 AND 35 MPH..ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE L/M 50S MTNS TO U50S/L60S FOR SAT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT A RAW/CLOUDY AND BREEZY TYPE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH
BLW NORMAL TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES WL FINALLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA ON
MONDAY INTO TUES...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS BECM LIGHT...PATCHY FROST WL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITHIN SHOWERS AND LIFR/IFR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS. KSLK ALREADY EXPERIENCING SOME TS...WITH KRUT
SEEING MVFR CIGS IN RAIN SHOWERS. KPBG/KBTV AND KMPV WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HRS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. KMSS JUST NORTH OF BEST INSTABILITY...BUT WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE SOME CONVECTION.

AFTER THE STORMS AND SHOWERS TAPER OFF...MAINLY AFTER
06Z...MOISTURE WHERE IS HAS RAINED WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS...BUT
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE S-SW WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... UNSETTLED WX WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACRS
OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH MVFR...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
430AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
PAST 24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY
ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT
MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM/TABER
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 221724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST
FRIDAY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...AS THE WEATHER
MAY STAY UNSETTLED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LASTEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED CAPES CLIMBING TO 1000 J/KG MAINLY TO THE
WEST OF HUDSON RIVER. BULK SHEAR IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ESPECIALLY
NORTH HALF OF CWA WHERE VALUES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. SO EXPECT STORM
MODE TO BE MAINLY MULTICELLULAR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH WIND ALSO A FACTOR.

WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE EASTERN ZONES WHERE RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES WAS RECORDED
LAST NIGHT. FLOW IS FAIRLY ROBUST...SO STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG.
HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING OF CELLS WILL LEAD TO ISSUES.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITE THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN AT KALB...SOLID IFR
AT KPSF AND KGFL AND SOLID MVFR AT KPOU. SOME FOG IS OCCURRING AT
KPSF. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BTWN 13-15Z...LEAVING A
MIX OF CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AT ALL
SITES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE...JUST PUTTING VCSH
UNTIL REGIONS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE OBSERVED AND
MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED LATER TODAY.  WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT AGAIN...SCATTERED
NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTING ACKNOWLEDGING IN TAFS FOR NOW.

WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THRU 10PM.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN VCNTY OF
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC TROUGH AND 850MB TEMP GRADIENT SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE
IS UP NEAR THE INTL BORDER...BUT GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THAT HAS OCCURRED IN SEVERAL WAVES DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS...THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF NY INTO NWRN CT WHERE LARGE MESOSCALE COLD POOL HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED.

THERE ARE SLIGHT 700-500MB HEIGHT RISES THIS MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN...AND ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY THRU ABOUT 19Z. CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN THRU MID
AFTN...WILL TREND SKY COVER FROM OVC TO BKN BY NOONTIME.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A SWLY BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF 850MB
FLOW ACROSS WRN PA INTO CENTRAL NY PER MODEL GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
S-CENTRAL VT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS ALL BUT NERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 21-00Z. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...UP TO 1500 J/KG...THOUGH
SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE HERE. BASED ON CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF...LOOKING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LATE DAY/EVENING TSTMS AS WELL. SPC
CALIBRATED SVR PROBABILITIES AND DAY 1 OUTLOOK SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...AND MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST AND HWO FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING. DEEP LAYER (SFC-6KM)
SHEAR EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LONG-LIVED
UPDRAFTS. 00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF 1.52"...AND NWD
ADVECTION OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
AFTN TEMPS TODAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE
LATE MORNING-MID AFTN PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SOME INTERVALS OF SUN
TODAY...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +14C COULD WARM QUICKLY DURING
THE EARLY AFTN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S...BUT COULD REACH 80F IF WE GET A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE AND INSOLATIONAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CONTINUED EMBEDDED TSTMS. SOME DECREASE IN
CAPE OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT ENHANCED WIND/HAIL WORDING JUST THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE
NWP QPF LOOKED ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+"
RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION
BELOW. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FR
00004000
OM NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD.
COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FCST AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED TWD THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FCST...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE MENTION OF RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF CRNT
TRENDS CONT FOR A MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION BY 12Z SAT...WHICH HELPS
TO PRODUCE A CLOSED AND SLOW MOVING 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NJ COAST TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE POSITION AND TRACK OF
CLOSED SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES...EXPECT HEAVIEST QPF
TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...BACKSIDE DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED MID LVL RH AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ITS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THESE BANDS AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP...THEREFORE WL JUST MENTION
CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FEEL SYSTEM WL SLIDE
JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SUNDAY TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. ON
SUNDAY...AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...LOOK FOR
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW 85H WINDS
BTWN 35 AND 45 KNOTS...WHICH WITH SOME MIXING WL SUPPORT GUSTS
BTWN 25 AND 35 MPH..ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE L/M 50S MTNS TO U50S/L60S FOR SAT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT A RAW/CLOUDY AND BREEZY TYPE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH
BLW NORMAL TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES WL FINALLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA ON
MONDAY INTO TUES...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS BECM LIGHT...PATCHY FROST WL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...IFR CIGS AT MSS/PBG/SLK WL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR/VFR BY 15Z THIS MORNING. CIGS WL BE THE SLOWEST TO
IMPROVE AT MSS DUE TO A LIGHT NE DRAINAGE FLW DOWN THE SLV.
EXPECT SOME CLRING BTWN 15Z-18Z TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP BY 21Z. A SFC
BOUNDARY CONTS TO BE DRAPED ACRS OUR TAF SITES AND WL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIP. THIS FRNT...COMBINED WITH SFC
HEATING/INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. MVFR TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SHOWERS WL
WEAKEN TWD LATE EVENING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
LIKELY DEVELOPING BY 06Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... UNSETTLED WX WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACRS
OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH MVFR...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
430AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
PAST 24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY
ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT
MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221703
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 101 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THRU 10PM.

ISSUED MORNING UPDATE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL POP OFF THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED SPC
RISK DOES NOW INCLUDE ALL BUT THE NEK IN SLIGHT RISK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN VCNTY OF
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC TROUGH AND 850MB TEMP GRADIENT SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE
IS UP NEAR THE INTL BORDER...BUT GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THAT HAS OCCURRED IN SEVERAL WAVES DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS...THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN
TIER OF NY INTO NWRN CT WHERE LARGE MESOSCALE COLD POOL HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED.

THERE ARE SLIGHT 700-500MB HEIGHT RISES THIS MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN...AND ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY THRU ABOUT 19Z. CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN THRU MID
AFTN...WILL TREND SKY COVER FROM OVC TO BKN BY NOONTIME.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A SWLY BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF 850MB
FLOW ACROSS WRN PA INTO CENTRAL NY PER MODEL GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
S-CENTRAL VT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS ALL BUT NERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 21-00Z. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...UP TO 1500 J/KG...THOUGH
SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE HERE. BASED ON CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF...LOOKING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LATE DAY/EVENING TSTMS AS WELL. SPC
CALIBRATED SVR PROBABILITIES AND DAY 1 OUTLOOK SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...AND MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST AND HWO FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING. DEEP LAYER (SFC-6KM)
SHEAR EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LONG-LIVED
UPDRAFTS. 00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF 1.52"...AND NWD
ADVECTION OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
AFTN TEMPS TODAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE
LATE MORNING-MID AFTN PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SOME INTERVALS OF SUN
TODAY...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +14C COULD WARM QUICKLY DURING
THE EARLY AFTN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S...BUT COULD REACH 80F IF WE GET A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE AND INSOLATIONAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CONTINUED EMBEDDED TSTMS. SOME DECREASE IN
CAPE OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT ENHANCED WIND/HAIL WORDING JUST THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE
NWP QPF LOOKED ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+"
RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION
BELOW. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD.
COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FCST AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED TWD THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FCST...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE MENTION OF RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF CRNT
TRENDS CONT FOR A MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION BY 12Z SAT...WHICH HELPS
TO PRODUCE A CLOSED AND SLOW MOVING 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NJ COAST TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE POSITION AND TRACK OF
CLOSED SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES...EXPECT HEAVIEST QPF
TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...BACKSIDE DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED MID LVL RH AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ITS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THESE BANDS AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP...THEREFORE WL JUST MENTION
CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FEEL SYSTEM WL SLIDE
JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SUNDAY TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. ON
SUNDAY...AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...LOOK FOR
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW 85H WINDS
BTWN 35 AND 45 KNOTS...WHICH WITH SOME MIXING WL SUPPORT GUSTS
BTWN 25 AND 35 MPH..ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE L/M 50S MTNS TO U50S/L60S FOR SAT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT A RAW/CLOUDY AND BREEZY TYPE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH
BLW NORMAL TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES WL FINALLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA ON
MONDAY INTO TUES...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS BECM LIGHT...PATCHY FROST WL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...IFR CIGS AT MSS/PBG/SLK WL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR/VFR BY 15Z THIS MORNING. CIGS WL BE THE SLOWEST TO
IMPROVE AT MSS DUE TO A LIGHT NE DRAINAGE FLW DOWN THE SLV.
EXPECT SOME CLRING BTWN 15Z-18Z TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP BY 21Z. A SFC
BOUNDARY CONTS TO BE DRAPED ACRS OUR TAF SITES AND WL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIP. THIS FRNT...COMBINED WITH SFC
HEATING/INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. MVFR TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SHOWERS WL
WEAKEN TWD LATE EVENING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
LIKELY DEVELOPING BY 06Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... UNSETTLED WX WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACRS
OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH MVFR...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
430AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
PAST 24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY
ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT
MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 221447
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST
FRIDAY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...AS THE WEATHER
MAY STAY UNSETTLED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER ERN NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND...AS IT APPEARS IT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE N/NE INTO
THE EARLY PM...AS A SHORT-WAVE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING FROM WRN-CNTRL NY. THE POPS ARE
GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.

STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE
FROM SW TO NE. THE IS A BETTER AREA OF CLEARING OVER THE OH
VALLEY. THERE IS YET...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING TOWARD WRN PA.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN THE
LATE PM/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN NY

WE HAVE BACK OFF THE SVR WX WORDING UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THE HOURLY
GRIDS. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON MORE SHEAR...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR FROM THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND AND 30-40 KTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY VALUES OFF THE 12Z NAM ARE GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS OF SBCAPE. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE.

A NEW RUNNING OF THE LOCAL MAGLENTA SEVERE WEATHER INDEX SHOWS A
MINOR SEVERE EVENT WITH THE FOLLOWING VALUES PLUGGED IN:

CAPE=1000 K/KG
MAX SOUNDING WINDS=50 KTS
EHI=1.0
STORM SPEED= 35 KTS
0-3 KM SRH = 100 (M/S)^2

IF THE CAPE IS INCREASED TO 1500 J/KG...WE SHOW A MAJOR EVENT.

THE CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD INDICATE SOME MULTICELLS AND OR ISOLD
SUPERCELLS...POTENTIALLY CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. THE
SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.

OUR LOCAL WRF SHOWS A FEW CLUSTERS DEVELOPING IN THE 0-3 KM
COLUMNAR REF PRODUCT IN THE EARLY TO MID PM...AND CONTINUING OVERN
00004000
IGHT.
THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATES LATE PM/EARLY PM.W

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE...SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL..THE SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FINE...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEAR TERM TRENDS. MAX TEMPS IN THE M70S TO
M80S LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITE THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN AT KALB...SOLID IFR
AT KPSF AND KGFL AND SOLID MVFR AT KPOU. SOME FOG IS OCCURRING AT
KPSF. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BTWN 13-15Z...LEAVING A
MIX OF CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AT ALL
SITES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE...JUST PUTTING VCSH
UNTIL REGIONS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE OBSERVED AND
MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED LATER TODAY.  WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT AGAIN...SCATTERED
NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTING ACKNOWLEDGING IN TAFS FOR NOW.

WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221433
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1033 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISSUED MORNING UPDATE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL POP OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED SPC RISK DOES NOW INCLUDE ALL BUT THE NEK
IN SLIGHT RISK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN VCNTY OF
E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC TROUGH AND 850MB TEMP GRADIENT SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE
IS UP NEAR THE INTL BORDER...BUT GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THAT HAS OCCURRED IN SEVERAL WAVES DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS...THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN
TIER OF NY INTO NWRN CT WHERE LARGE MESOSCALE COLD POOL HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED.

THERE ARE SLIGHT 700-500MB HEIGHT RISES THIS MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN...AND ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY THRU ABOUT 19Z. CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN THRU MID
AFTN...WILL TREND SKY COVER FROM OVC TO BKN BY NOONTIME.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A SWLY BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF 850MB
FLOW ACROSS WRN PA INTO CENTRAL NY PER MODEL GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
S-CENTRAL VT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS ALL BUT NERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 21-00Z. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...UP TO 1500 J/KG...THOUGH
SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE HERE. BASED ON CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF...LOOKING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LATE DAY/EVENING TSTMS AS WELL. SPC
CALIBRATED SVR PROBABILITIES AND DAY 1 OUTLOOK SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...AND MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST AND HWO FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING. DEEP LAYER (SFC-6KM)
SHEAR EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LONG-LIVED
UPDRAFTS. 00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF 1.52"...AND NWD
ADVECTION OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
AFTN TEMPS TODAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE
LATE MORNING-MID AFTN PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SOME INTERVALS OF SUN
TODAY...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +14C COULD WARM QUICKLY DURING
THE EARLY AFTN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S...BUT COULD REACH 80F IF WE GET A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE AND INSOLATIONAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CONTINUED EMBEDDED TSTMS. SOME DECREASE IN
CAPE OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT ENHANCED WIND/HAIL WORDING JUST THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE
NWP QPF LOOKED ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+"
RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION
BELOW. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD.
COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FCST AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED TWD THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FCST...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE MENTION OF RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF CRNT
TRENDS CONT FOR A MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION BY 12Z SAT...WHICH HELPS
TO PRODUCE A CLOSED AND SLOW MOVING 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NJ COAST TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE POSITION AND TRACK OF
CLOSED SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES...EXPECT HEAVIEST QPF
TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...BACKSIDE DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED MID LVL RH AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ITS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THESE BANDS AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP...THEREFORE WL JUST MENTION
CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FEEL SYSTEM WL SLIDE
JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SUNDAY TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. ON
SUNDAY...AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...LOOK FOR
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW 85H WINDS
BTWN 35 AND 45 KNOTS...WHICH WITH SOME MIXING WL SUPPORT GUSTS
BTWN 25 AND 35 MPH..ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE L/M 50S MTNS TO U50S/L60S FOR SAT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT A RAW/CLOUDY AND BREEZY TYPE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH
BLW NORMAL TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES WL FINALLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA ON
MONDAY INTO TUES...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPS. IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS BECM LIGHT...PATCHY FROST WL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...IFR CIGS AT MSS/PBG/SLK WL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR/VFR BY 15Z THIS MORNING. CIGS WL BE THE SLOWEST TO
IMPROVE AT MSS DUE TO A LIGHT NE DRAINAGE FLW DOWN THE SLV.
EXPECT SOME CLRING BTWN 15Z-18Z TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP BY 21Z. A SFC
BOUNDARY CONTS TO BE DRAPED ACRS OUR TAF SITES AND WL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIP. THIS FRNT...COMBINED WITH SFC
HEATING/INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. MVFR TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SHOWERS WL
WEAKEN TWD LATE EVENING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
LIKELY DEVELOPING BY 06Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... UNSETTLED WX WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACRS
OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH MVFR...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
430AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
PAST 24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY
ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT
MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 221200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW

00004000
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TSTMS HAVE ENDED AND ONLY SCT -SHRA REMAIN MAINLY OVER S VT AND
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE ALONG THE S TIER. FOR THE
NEXT SVRL HOURS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND END.
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF FCA WILL THIN WITH INCRG SUNSHINE FOR A FEW
HRS.

THE HOOSIC RIVER AND SOME SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE
REACHED BANK FULL AND MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED FLOOD THIS MORNING BEFORE
RECEDING. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THESE
SITUATIONS.

AT SFC WMFNT IS N OF FCA. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITE THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN AT KALB...SOLID IFR
AT KPSF AND KGFL AND SOLID MVFR AT KPOU. SOME FOG IS OCCURRING AT
KPSF. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BTWN 13-15Z...LEAVING A
MIX OF CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AT ALL
SITES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE...JUST PUTTING VCSH
UNTIL REGIONS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE OBSERVED AND
MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED LATER TODAY.  WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT AGAIN...SCATTERED
NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTING ACKNOWLEDGING IN TAFS FOR NOW.

WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN VCNTY OF E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TROUGH AND 850MB TEMP GRADIENT
SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE IS UP NEAR THE INTL BORDER...BUT
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED IN SEVERAL WAVES
DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY INTO NWRN CT WHERE LARGE
MESOSCALE COLD POOL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION THRU 13Z GIVEN SATURATED
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WEAK SFC LOW
ACROSS NRN NY WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SLIGHT 700-500MB HEIGHT RISES THIS MORNING THRU
EARLY AFTN...AND ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY THRU ABOUT 19Z. CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN
THRU MID AFTN...WILL TREND SKY COVER FROM OVC TO BKN BY NOONTIME.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A SWLY BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF 850MB
FLOW ACROSS WRN PA INTO CENTRAL NY PER MODEL GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z
NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ALL BUT
NERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 21-00Z. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY...UP TO 1500 J/KG...THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE A
BIT OVERDONE HERE. BASED ON CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INCLUDING
LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF...LOOKING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LATE
DAY/EVENING TSTMS AS WELL. SPC CALIBRATED SVR PROBABILITIES AND
DAY 1 OUTLOOK SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND MENTIONED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR LATE
AFTN/EVENING. DEEP LAYER (SFC-6KM) SHEAR EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS. 00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWED PW
VALUES OF 1.52"...AND NWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL
ALSO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. AFTN TEMPS TODAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON SOME
SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE LATE MORNING-MID AFTN PERIOD. ANTICIPATE
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN TODAY...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +14C COULD
WARM QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
VALLEYS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 70S...BUT COULD REACH 80F IF
WE GET A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND INSOLATIONAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CONTINUED EMBEDDED TSTMS. SOME DECREASE IN CAPE
OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT ENHANCED WIND/HAIL WORDING JUST THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG/IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE NWP QPF
LOOKED ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+"
RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION
BELOW. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD.
COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FCST AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED TWD THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FCST...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
MENTION OF RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF CRNT TRENDS
CONT FOR A MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION BY 12Z SAT...WHICH HELPS TO PRODUCE A
CLOSED AND SLOW MOVING 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. WHILE SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NJ COAST TO THE GULF OF
MAINE BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE POSITION AND TRACK OF CLOSED SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES...EXPECT HEAVIEST QPF TO BE JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR CWA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED MID LVL RH AND ASSOCIATED 850 TO
500MB LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ITS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE EXACT PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THESE BANDS AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP...THEREFORE WL JUST MENTION CHC POPS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FEEL SYSTEM WL SLIDE JUST FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY SUNDAY TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. ON SUNDAY...AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW 85H WINDS BTWN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...WHICH WITH SOME MIXING WL SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
MPH..ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE L/M 50S MTNS TO U50S/L60S FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT A
RAW/CLOUDY AND BREEZY TYPE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH BLW NORMAL TEMPS.
SFC HIGH PRES WL FINALLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA ON MONDAY INTO
TUES...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. IF
SKIES CLR AND WINDS BECM LIGHT...PATCHY FROST WL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...IFR CIGS AT MSS/PBG/SLK WL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY 15Z THIS MORNING. CIGS WL BE THE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE AT
MSS DUE TO A LIGHT NE DRAINAGE FLW DOWN THE SLV. EXPECT SOME
CLRING BTWN 15Z-18Z TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP BY 21Z. A SFC BOUNDARY CONTS TO BE DRAPED
ACRS OUR TAF SITES AND WL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP. THIS
FRNT...COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE MORE
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTN THRU THIS
EVENING. MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS SHOWERS WL WEAKEN TWD LATE EVENING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING BY 06Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
MSS/SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACRS OUR TAF
SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIA
00004000
TED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH MVFR...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
430AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE PAST
24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST BETWEEN LATE
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN VCNTY OF E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TROUGH AND 850MB TEMP GRADIENT
SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE IS UP NEAR THE INTL BORDER...BUT
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED IN SEVERAL WAVES
DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY INTO NWRN CT WHERE LARGE
MESOSCALE COLD POOL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION THRU 13Z GIVEN SATURATED
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WEAK SFC LOW
ACROSS NRN NY WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SLIGHT 700-500MB HEIGHT RISES THIS MORNING THRU
EARLY AFTN...AND ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY THRU ABOUT 19Z. CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN
THRU MID AFTN...WILL TREND SKY COVER FROM OVC TO BKN BY NOONTIME.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A SWLY BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF 850MB
FLOW ACROSS WRN PA INTO CENTRAL NY PER MODEL GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z
NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ALL BUT
NERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 21-00Z. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY...UP TO 1500 J/KG...THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE A
BIT OVERDONE HERE. BASED ON CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INCLUDING
LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF...LOOKING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LATE
DAY/EVENING TSTMS AS WELL. SPC CALIBRATED SVR PROBABILITIES AND
DAY 1 OUTLOOK SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND MENTIONED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR LATE
AFTN/EVENING. DEEP LAYER (SFC-6KM) SHEAR EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS. 00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWED PW
VALUES OF 1.52"...AND NWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL
ALSO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. AFTN TEMPS TODAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON SOME
SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE LATE MORNING-MID AFTN PERIOD. ANTICIPATE
SOME INTERVALS OF SUN TODAY...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +14C COULD
WARM QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
VALLEYS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 70S...BUT COULD REACH 80F IF
WE GET A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND INSOLATIONAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CONTINUED EMBEDDED TSTMS. SOME DECREASE IN CAPE
OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT ENHANCED WIND/HAIL WORDING JUST THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG/IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE NWP QPF
LOOKED ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+"
RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION
BELOW. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD.
COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FCST AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED TWD THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FCST...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
MENTION OF RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF CRNT TRENDS
CONT FOR A MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION BY 12Z SAT...WHICH HELPS TO PRODUCE A
CLOSED AND SLOW MOVING 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. WHILE SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NJ COAST TO THE GULF OF
MAINE BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE POSITION AND TRACK OF CLOSED SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES...EXPECT HEAVIEST QPF TO BE JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR CWA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED MID LVL RH AND ASSOCIATED 850 TO
500MB LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ITS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE EXACT PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THESE BANDS AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP...THEREFORE WL JUST MENTION CHC POPS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FEEL SYSTEM WL SLIDE JUST FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY SUNDAY TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. ON SUNDAY...AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW 85H WINDS BTWN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...WHICH WITH SOME MIXING WL SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
MPH..ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE L/M 50S MTNS TO U50S/L60S FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT A
RAW/CLOUDY AND BREEZY TYPE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH BLW NORMAL TEMPS.
SFC HIGH PRES WL FINALLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA ON MONDAY INTO
TUES...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. IF
SKIES CLR AND WINDS BECM LIGHT...PATCHY FROST WL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION
FCST WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL IFR CIGS/VIS THRU THIS MORNING.
CRNT OBS SHOW TAF SITES RANGING FROM VFR AT RUT TO MVFR AT
BTV/SLK/MSS AND IFR AT MPV/PBG. RADAR SHOWS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
ACRS THE CPV...WHICH WL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF MPV/RUT TAF SITES BY
07Z. GIVEN 925MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNTS...EXPECT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH IFR LIKELY AT MPV/MSS/SLK BY 08Z THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF BL RH AT RUT/BTV/PBG...BUT
FEEL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TWD
MORNING. ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z AT
MPV/MSS/SLK...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. SFC BOUNDARY CONTS TO BE
DRAPED ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. THIS FRNT...COMBINED WITH SFC
HEATING/INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS AFT 21Z TODAY...WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VIS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SHOWERS WL WEAKEN TWD LATE EVENING WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING BY 06Z
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON
THURS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS
WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
BY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
430AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE PAST
24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST BETWEEN LATE
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 221027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TSTMS HAVE ENDED AND ONLY SCT -SHRA REMAIN MAINLY OVER S VT AND
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE ALONG THE S TIER. FOR THE
NEXT SVRL HOURS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND END.
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF FCA WILL THIN WITH INCRG SUNSHINE FOR A FEW
HRS.

THE HOOSIC RIVER AND SOME SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE
REACHED BANKFUL AND MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED FLOOD THIS MORNING BEFORE
RECEDING. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THESE
SITUATIONS.

AT SFC WMFNT IS N OF FCA. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTO
00001D63
FF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AT KALB THROUGH ABOUT
07Z-08Z...AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.  SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN
KALB AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH CONTINUED STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISSIPATE BY THEN.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG AND VFR CEILINGS...BUT SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP BELOW
1000 FEET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BETTER CLEARING TOWARD
SUNRISE THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET.  FOR NOW NOT INDICATING ANY IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND IF CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS CHANGE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AFTER 12Z
UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATER TODAY SO PUTTING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 22Z...BUT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN BECOME VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS COULD
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TSTMS HAVE ENDED AND ONLY SCT -SHRA REMAIN MAINLY OVER S VT AND
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE ALONG THE S TIER. FOR THE
NEXT SVRL HOURS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND END.
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF FCA WILL THIN WITH INCRG SUNSHINE FOR A FEW
HRS.

THE HOOSIC RIVER AND SOME SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE
REACHED BANKFUL AND MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED FLOOD THIS MORNING BEFORE
RECEDING. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THESE
SITUATIONS.

AT SFC WMFNT IS N OF FCA. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTL
00004000
KS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AT KALB THROUGH ABOUT
07Z-08Z...AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.  SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN
KALB AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH CONTINUED STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISSIPATE BY THEN.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG AND VFR CEILINGS...BUT SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP BELOW
1000 FEET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BETTER CLEARING TOWARD
SUNRISE THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET.  FOR NOW NOT INDICATING ANY IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND IF CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS CHANGE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AFTER 12Z
UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATER TODAY SO PUTTING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 22Z...BUT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN BECOME VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS COULD
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN VCNTY OF E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TROUGH AND 850MB TEMP GRADIENT
SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE IS UP NEAR THE INTL BORDER...BUT
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED IN SEVERAL WAVES
DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY INTO NWRN CT WHERE LARGE
MESOSCALE COLD POOL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED.

REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DEPART EWD INTO NH
BY 10Z THIS MORNING. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG AROUND THRU 12Z GIVEN SATURATED
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
NRN NY WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
THERE ARE SLIGHT 700-500MB HEIGHT RISES THIS MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN...AND ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY THRU ABOUT 19Z. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A SWLY
BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF 850MB FLOW ACROSS WRN PA INTO CENTRAL
NY PER MODEL GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NY WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ALL BUT NERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
21-00Z. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...UP TO 1500
J/KG...THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE HERE. BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INCLUDING LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF...LOOKING
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LATE DAY/EVENING TSTMS AS WELL.
SPC CALIBRATED SVR PROBABILITIES AND DAY 1 OUTLOOK SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...AND MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST AND HWO FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING. DEEP LAYER (SFC-6KM) SHEAR
EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS. 00Z
ALB SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF 1.52"...AND NWD ADVECTION OF THIS
MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. AFTN TEMPS TODAY
HIGHLY DEPEND ON SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE LATE MORNING-MID
AFTN PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SOME INTERVALS OF SUN TODAY...AND WITH
850MB TEMPS OF +14C COULD WARM QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 70S...BUT
COULD REACH 80F IF WE GET A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND INSOLATIONAL
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CONTINUED EMBEDDED TSTMS. SOME DECREASE IN CAPE
OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT ENHANCED WIND/HAIL WORDING JUST THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG/IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE NWP QPF
LOOKED ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+"
RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION
BELOW. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD.
COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FCST AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS LATEST TRENDS SHOW A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED TWD THE
00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FCST...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
MENTION OF RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF CRNT TRENDS
CONT FOR A MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION BY 12Z SAT...WHICH HELPS TO PRODUCE A
CLOSED AND SLOW MOVING 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. WHILE SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NJ COAST TO THE GULF OF
MAINE BY 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE POSITION AND TRACK OF CLOSED SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES...EXPECT HEAVIEST QPF TO BE JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR CWA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED MID LVL RH AND ASSOCIATED 850 TO
500MB LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ITS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE EXACT PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THESE BANDS AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP...THEREFORE WL JUST MENTION CHC POPS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FEEL SYSTEM WL SLIDE JUST FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY SUNDAY TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. ON SUNDAY...AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW 85H WINDS BTWN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...WHICH WITH SOME MIXING WL SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35
MPH..ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE L/M 50S MTNS TO U50S/L60S FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT A
RAW/CLOUDY AND BREEZY TYPE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH BLW NORMAL TEMPS.
SFC HIGH PRES WL FINALLY BUILD INTO OUR CWA ON MONDAY INTO
TUES...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. IF
SKIES CLR AND WINDS BECM LIGHT...PATCHY FROST WL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION
FCST WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL IFR CIGS/VIS THRU THIS MORNING.
CRNT OBS SHOW TAF SITES RANGING FROM VFR AT RUT TO MVFR AT
BTV/SLK/MSS AND IFR AT MPV/PBG. RADAR SHOWS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
ACRS THE CPV...WHICH WL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF MPV/RUT TAF SITES BY
07Z. GIVEN 925MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNTS...EXPECT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH IFR LIKELY AT MPV/MSS/SLK BY 08Z THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF BL RH AT RUT/BTV/PBG...BUT
FEEL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TWD
MORNING. ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z AT
MPV/MSS/SLK...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. SFC BOUNDARY CONTS TO BE
DRAPED ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. THIS FRNT...COMBINED WITH SFC
HEATING/INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS AFT 21Z TODAY...WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VIS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SHOWERS WL WEAKEN TWD LATE EVENING WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING BY 06Z
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON
THURS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS
WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
BY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
430AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE PAST
24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST BETWEEN LATE
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
L
00004000
ONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
425 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN VCNTY OF E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TROUGH AND 850MB TEMP GRADIENT
SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE IS UP NEAR THE INTL BORDER...BUT
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED IN SEVERAL WAVES
DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY INTO NWRN CT WHERE LARGE
MESOSCALE COLD POOL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED.

REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DEPART EWD INTO NH
BY 10Z THIS MORNING. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG AROUND THRU 12Z GIVEN SATURATED
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
NRN NY WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
THERE ARE SLIGHT 700-500MB HEIGHT RISES THIS MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN...AND ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY THRU ABOUT 19Z. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A SWLY
BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF 850MB FLOW ACROSS WRN PA INTO CENTRAL
NY PER MODEL GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NY WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ALL BUT NERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
21-00Z. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...UP TO 1500
J/KG...THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE HERE. BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INCLUDING LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF...LOOKING
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG LATE DAY/EVENING TSTMS AS WELL.
SPC CALIBRATED SVR PROBABILITIES AND DAY 1 OUTLOOK SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...AND MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST AND HWO FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING. DEEP LAYER (SFC-6KM) SHEAR
EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS. 00Z
ALB SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF 1.52"...AND NWD ADVECTION OF THIS
MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. AFTN TEMPS TODAY
HIGHLY DEPEND ON SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE LATE MORNING-MID
AFTN PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SOME INTERVALS OF SUN TODAY...AND WITH
850MB TEMPS OF +14C COULD WARM QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AFTN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 70S...BUT
COULD REACH 80F IF WE GET A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND INSOLATIONAL
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CONTINUED EMBEDDED TSTMS. SOME DECREASE IN CAPE
OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT ENHANCED WIND/HAIL WORDING JUST THRU THE
EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG/IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE NWP QPF
LOOKED ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+"
RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION
BELOW. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD.
COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE FRIDAY IN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TROUGH LOOKS TO TILT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SFC LOW
TRAVERSES NEWD NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...KEEPING BACK/WRN EDGE OF
PRECIP NEAR VT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVER VT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SW HUDSONS BAY...EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT BRING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SOME TROUGHINESS
REMAINING OVER ERN ZONES...WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF VT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION
FCST WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL IFR CIGS/VIS THRU THIS MORNING.
CRNT OBS SHOW TAF SITES RANGING FROM VFR AT RUT TO MVFR AT
BTV/SLK/MSS AND IFR AT MPV/PBG. RADAR SHOWS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
ACRS THE CPV...WHICH WL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF MPV/RUT TAF SITES BY
07Z. GIVEN 925MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNTS...EXPECT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH IFR LIKELY AT MPV/MSS/SLK BY 08Z THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF BL RH AT RUT/BTV/PBG...BUT
FEEL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TWD
MORNING. ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z AT
MPV/MSS/SLK...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. SFC BOUNDARY CONTS TO BE
DRAPED ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. THIS FRNT...COMBINED WITH SFC
HEATING/INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS AFT 21Z TODAY...WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VIS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SHOWERS WL WEAKEN TWD LATE EVENING WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING BY 06Z
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON
THURS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS
WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
BY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
430AM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE PAST
24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST BETWEEN LATE
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 220721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-88 CORRIDOR MOVING THROUGH FCA
ATTM. MAINLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQ LIGHTNING. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN
EXTEND BEHIND IT.

MOST AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL SEE ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.O INCH OF RAIN
BRINGING TOTALS FOR TODAY UP TO 2-3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS IMPACTED
WITH SOME ISOLD 4 INCH AMOUNTS. AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM MHWK VLY AND ADJACENT AREAS INTO S VT/BERKSHIRE COUNTY
FOR OVERNIGHT TO COVER ANY SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING.

THIS LINE SHOULD EXIT MOST OF UPSTATE NY/VT AND W MA NEXT 1.5 TO
2 HRS...EXCEPT CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VLY WHERE IT IS JUST
ARRIVING IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT HAD MUCH PCPN AT ALL OR SINCE
SINCE LATE TUES AFTN. IT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND END OVERNIGHT

AT SFC WMFNT IS LIFTING NE THROUGH FCA OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE ALONG
N TIER OR N OF RGN WED MRNG. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE WEEKEND FCST IS DETERIORATING...
THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT. ATTM WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES BEYOND SAT NT TO MINIMIZE FLIP FLOPPING GIVEN THE SPREAD
IN MODELS SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE EAST WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AT KALB THROUGH ABOUT
07Z-08Z...AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.  SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN
KALB AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH CONTINUED STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISSIPATE BY THEN.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG AND VFR CEILINGS...BUT SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP BELOW
1000 FEET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BETTER CLEARING TOWARD
SUNRISE THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET.  FOR NOW NOT INDICATING ANY IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND IF CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS CHANGE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AFTER 12Z
UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATER TODAY SO PUTTING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 22Z...BUT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGI
0000342E
ON LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN BECOME VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS COULD
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220556
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
156 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-88 CORRIDOR MOVING THROUGH FCA
ATTM. MAINLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQ LIGHTNING. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN
EXTEND BEHIND IT.

MOST AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL SEE ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.O INCH OF RAIN
BRINGING TOTALS FOR TODAY UP TO 2-3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS IMPACTED
WITH SOME ISOLD 4 INCH AMOUNTS. AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM MHWK VLY AND ADJACENT AREAS INTO S VT/BERKSHIRE COUNTY
FOR OVERNIGHT TO COVER ANY SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING.

THIS LINE SHOULD EXIT MOST OF UPSTATE NY/VT AND W MA NEXT 1.5 TO
2 HRS...EXCEPT CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VLY WHERE IT IS JUST
ARRIVING IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT HAD MUCH PCPN AT ALL OR SINCE
SINCE LATE TUES AFTN. IT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND END OVERNIGHT

AT SFC WMFNT IS LIFTING NE THROUGH FCA OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE ALONG
N TIER OR N OF RGN WED MRNG. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
ON THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS
WITH CLOUD COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND SEVERE WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE
ONE LATER FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AT KALB THROUGH ABOUT
07Z-08Z...AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.  SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN
KALB AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH CONTINUED STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISSIPATE BY THEN.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG AND VFR CEILINGS...BUT SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP BELOW
1000 FEET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BETTER CLEARING TOWARD
SUNRISE THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET.  FOR NOW NOT INDICATING ANY IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND IF CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS CHANGE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AFTER 12Z
UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATER TODAY SO PUTTING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 22Z...BUT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN BECOME VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS COULD
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220551
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
151 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LAST ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HRS NOW PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 0430Z. IT APPEARS THE STRONGER CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE AIR MASS AT THIS
POINT...WITH LITTLE CG OR IC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST
HOUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON TRENDS
AND MENTIONING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS. A QUICK 0.50-0.75"
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS EASTWARD. NOTED 0.69" BETWEEN 03-04Z AT KSLK.

ADDED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED LOW-
LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS. LOWS GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPR 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 60S...AND WITH
PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLA
00004000
Y SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY
PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILTED UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LOW WILL TRAIL BEHIND. SLOW
MOVING FLOW CONTINUES AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CREEPS EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FINALLY DECREASES AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE FRIDAY IN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TROUGH LOOKS TO TILT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SFC LOW
TRAVERSES NEWD NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...KEEPING BACK/WRN EDGE OF
PRECIP NEAR VT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVER VT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SW HUDSONS BAY...EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT BRING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SOME TROUGHINESS
REMAINING OVER ERN ZONES...WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF VT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION
FCST WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL IFR CIGS/VIS THRU THIS MORNING.
CRNT OBS SHOW TAF SITES RANGING FROM VFR AT RUT TO MVFR AT
BTV/SLK/MSS AND IFR AT MPV/PBG. RADAR SHOWS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
ACRS THE CPV...WHICH WL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF MPV/RUT TAF SITES BY
07Z. GIVEN 925MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNTS...EXPECT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH IFR LIKELY AT MPV/MSS/SLK BY 08Z THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF BL RH AT RUT/BTV/PBG...BUT
FEEL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TWD
MORNING. ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z AT
MPV/MSS/SLK...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. SFC BOUNDARY CONTS TO BE
DRAPED ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. THIS FRNT...COMBINED WITH SFC
HEATING/INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS AFT 21Z TODAY...WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS/VIS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SHOWERS WL WEAKEN TWD LATE EVENING WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING BY 06Z
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ON
THURS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS
WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
BY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220436
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LAST ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HRS NOW PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 0430Z. IT APPEARS THE STRONGER CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE AIR MASS AT THIS
POINT...WITH LITTLE CG OR IC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST
HOUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON TRENDS
AND MENTIONING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS. A QUICK 0.50-0.75"
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS EASTWARD. NOTED 0.69" BETWEEN 03-04Z AT KSLK.

ADDED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED LOW-
LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS. LOWS GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPR 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 60S...AND WITH
PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY
PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILTED UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LOW WILL TRAIL BEHIND. SLOW
MOVING FLOW CONTINUES AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CREEPS EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FINALLY DECREASES AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE FRIDAY IN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TROUGH LOOKS TO TILT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SFC LOW
TRAVERSES NEWD NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...KEEPING BACK/WRN EDGE OF
PRECIP NEAR VT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVER VT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SW HUDSONS BAY...EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT BRING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SOME TROUGHINESS
REMAINING OVER ERN ZONES...WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF VT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH
IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV/MSS. VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY BEFORE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 220407
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1207 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #203 TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED. A SUMMARY LOCAL STORM
REPORT (LSR) HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE LAST SEVERE WEATHER REPORT WE
RECEIVED WAS 9:35 PM. THREAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AS 914 PM EDT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...IS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE ALBANY
00Z SOUNDING HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1800 J/KG AND THE 850-500
MB LAPSE RATE OF 7.2 C/KM. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE BEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MAJORITY OF REPORTS EARLIER TODAY WHERE HAIL AND THIS EVENING WE
HAVE HAD WIND AND HAIL REPORTS.

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C
HEIGHT. IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY..
00004000
.THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO HAVE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BASED TIMING OF
CONVECTION THROUGH TAFS ON RADAR TRENDS. DO EXPECT A LULL IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220254
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1054 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BRING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1049 PM EDT TUESDAY...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING
AS IT EXITS FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. STILL A LOT OF CONVECTION
SOUTH OF BTV CWA AT THIS TIME ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS
FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...BUT OVERNIGHT MINS STILL OKAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HISTORY OF SEVERE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. STRONG STRONG TO SEVERE DESPITE
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS
VERMONT THIS EVENING A BREAK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
FOLLOW FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO EARLY THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS...BUT OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW
FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL EVOLUTION SUGGESTS
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR
50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 60S...AND WITH
PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY
PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILTED UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LOW WILL TRAIL BEHIND. SLOW
MOVING FLOW CONTINUES AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CREEPS EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FINALLY DECREASES AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE FRIDAY IN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TROUGH LOOKS TO TILT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SFC LOW
TRAVERSES NEWD NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...KEEPING BACK/WRN EDGE OF
PRECIP NEAR VT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVER VT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SW HUDSONS BAY...EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT BRING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SOME TROUGHINESS
REMAINING OVER ERN ZONES...WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF VT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH
IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV/MSS. VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY BEFORE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 220114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
914 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #203 HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE ALBANY 00Z SOUNDING HAS
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1800 J/KG AND THE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF
7.2 C/KM. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAJORITY OF REPORTS
EARLIER TODAY WHERE HAIL AND THIS EVENING WE HAVE HAD WIND AND
HAIL REPORTS.

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C
HEIGHT. IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DE
00004000
PARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO HAVE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST OVERNIGHT. BASED
TIMING OF CONVECTION THROUGH TAFS ON RADAR TRENDS. DO EXPECT A
LULL IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220038
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
838 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BRING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 803 PM EDT TUESDAY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HISTORY OF
SEVERE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
STRONG STRONG TO SEVERE DESPITE LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS VERMONT THIS EVENING A BREAK IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO EARLY THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...BUT OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW
FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL EVOLUTION SUGGESTS
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR
50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 60S...AND WITH
PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY
PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILTED UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LOW WILL TRAIL BEHIND. SLOW
MOVING FLOW CONTINUES AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CREEPS EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FINALLY DECREASES AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE FRIDAY IN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TROUGH LOOKS TO TILT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SFC LOW
TRAVERSES NEWD NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...KEEPING BACK/WRN EDGE OF
PRECIP NEAR VT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVER VT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SW HUDSONS BAY...EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT BRING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SOME TROUGHINESS
REMAINING OVER ERN ZONES...WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF VT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH
IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV/MSS. VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY BEFORE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 220021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. PLUS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C
HEIGHT. IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA 
00004000
REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO HAVE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST OVERNIGHT. BASED
TIMING OF CONVECTION THROUGH TAFS ON RADAR TRENDS. DO EXPECT A
LULL IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 212032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS WITH
SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C HEIGHT.
IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HAS BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK MESO LOW MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING THREAT OF CONVECTION BACK TO THE AREA ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTING A LULL WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL BE BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 212026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BRING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE.
OVERALL EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 60S...AND WITH
PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY
PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILTED UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LOW WILL TRAIL BEHIND. SLOW
MOVING FLOW CONTINUES AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY CREEPS EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FINALLY DECREASES AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM
00004000
 /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE FRIDAY IN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TROUGH LOOKS TO TILT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SFC LOW
TRAVERSES NEWD NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...KEEPING BACK/WRN EDGE OF
PRECIP NEAR VT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVER VT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SW HUDSONS BAY...EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT BRING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SOME TROUGHINESS
REMAINING OVER ERN ZONES...WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF VT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FCST AS LL MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH
TRYING TO REACH NORTH. FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ALSO HAS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG IT...TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. VRB CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTN...MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. MPV AND RUT SEEING
THE MOST BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MOISTURE AND
MVFR CIGS WILL REACH THESE SITES IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING HRS.

MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACRS TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE.
ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE AFT 01Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 212021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS WITH
SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C HEIGHT.
IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLIONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FA ALONG WITH SOME
WHICH DEVELOP ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
ANY STORM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...JUST PLACING VCSH AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN TAFS AT
15Z WED.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
225 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
FORECAST...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID LOWER TEMPS FOR
TODAY SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50" RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW DEPARTED THE FORECAST
AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN
VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT NORTH TO NE
ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS
REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN THE
MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
BNDRY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE
THIS INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
(LATE MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT
APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS
WHERE 40-50 POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN
HRS. GOOD NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD
TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. FRONTAL ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA
00004000
 OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON
THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN
PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO
SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX
IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT TUESDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE FRIDAY IN TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TROUGH LOOKS TO TILT NEUTRAL TO
NEGATIVE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SFC LOW
TRAVERSES NEWD NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...KEEPING BACK/WRN EDGE OF
PRECIP NEAR VT...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVER VT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER SW HUDSONS BAY...EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT BRING CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SOME TROUGHINESS
REMAINING OVER ERN ZONES...WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF VT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FCST AS LL MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH
TRYING TO REACH NORTH. FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ALSO HAS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG IT...TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. VRB CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTN...MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. MPV AND RUT SEEING
THE MOST BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MOISTURE AND
MVFR CIGS WILL REACH THESE SITES IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING HRS.

MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACRS TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE.
ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE AFT 01Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 211801
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS 145 PM EDT...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC AND WFO BGM AND BUF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL /1 INCH AND GREATER/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE FOR SEVERE...BUT AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.

THE AIR MASS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS PM WITH TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION FIRING OVER WRN-
CNTRL NY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE MID AND U80S OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAYBE A
FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 90F TOO NEAR KPOU. ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE U70S TO M80S.

ALSO...SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
SBCAPES HAVE REACHED 2000-3000+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES
WITH LESS THAN 20 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR VALUES ARE
30-35 KTS. THEREFORE...BETTER...DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...WITH PULSE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE 6.5 C/KM
RANGE. THE ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL PROMOTE SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL TOO.

NOW...UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV IS MOVING ACROSS SE
ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION /ASIDE FROM THE PULSE CONVECTION/. THE
12Z KALB SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP BTWN 500-550 HPA
THAT WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER. THE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS HOLDING TOGETHER...SO THIS CAP COULD BE BROKEN.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THINKING HAS CHANGED FOR A MINOR TO MAJOR EVENT BASED ON THE
VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FA ALONG WITH SOME
WHICH DEVELOP ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
ANY STORM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...JUST PLACING VCSH AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN TAFS AT
15Z WED.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
FORECAST...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID LOWER TEMPS FOR
TODAY SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50" RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW DEPARTED THE FORECAST
AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN
VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT NORTH TO NE
ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS
REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN THE
MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
BNDRY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE
THIS INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
(LATE MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT
APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS
WHERE 40-50 POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN
HRS. GOOD NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BUT SEVERAL 
00004000
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD
TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. FRONTAL ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON
THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN
PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO
SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX
IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB
RH WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS
WL BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.
THIS WL PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER
TEMPS...AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FCST AS LL MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH
TRYING TO REACH NORTH. FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ALSO HAS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG IT...TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. VRB CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTN...MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. MPV AND RUT SEEING
THE MOST BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MOISTURE AND
MVFR CIGS WILL REACH THESE SITES IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING HRS.

MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACRS TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE.
ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE AFT 01Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM/TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

AS 100 PM EDT...THE AIR MASS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM WITH TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
FIRING OVER WRN-CNTRL NY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE MID AND
U80S OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THERE MAYBE A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 90F TOO NEAR KPOU.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE U70S TO M80S.

ALSO...SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
SBCAPES HAVE REACHED 2000-3000+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. THE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES WITH LESS THAN 20
KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-35 KTS.
THEREFORE...BETTER...DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...WITH PULSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE 6.5 C/KM RANGE. IT
APPEARS THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE WIND...BUT WE WILL MENTION
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW...AND UPGRADE IF WE GET A
CONVECTIVE WATCH.

NOW...UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV IS MOVING ACROSS SE
ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION /ASIDE FROM THE PULSE
CONVECTION/. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP
BTWN 500-550 HPA THAT WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ROBUST SEVERE
WEATHER.

AT THIS POINT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE /5 OR LESS
REPORTS/...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF INDICATES ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS
OVER THE NRN TIER TOWARDS 00Z/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FA ALONG WITH SOME
WHICH DEVELOP ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
ANY STORM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...JUST PLACING VCSH AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN TAFS AT
15Z WED.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
FORECAST...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50" RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW DEPARTED THE FORECAST
AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN
VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT NORTH TO NE
ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS
REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN THE
MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF
00004000
 E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
BNDRY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE
THIS INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
(LATE MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT
APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS
WHERE 40-50 POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN
HRS. GOOD NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD
TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. FRONTAL ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON
THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN
PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO
SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX
IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB
RH WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS
WL BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.
THIS WL PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER
TEMPS...AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FCST AS LL MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH
TRYING TO REACH NORTH. FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ALSO HAS
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG IT...TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. MORE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. VRB CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTN...MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. MPV AND RUT SEEING
THE MOST BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MOISTURE AND
MVFR CIGS WILL REACH THESE SITES IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING HRS.

MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACRS TAF
SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE.
ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE AFT 01Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM/TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

AS 100 PM EDT...THE AIR MASS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM WITH TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
FIRING OVER WRN-CNTRL NY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE MID AND
U80S OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THERE MAYBE A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 90F TOO NEAR KPOU.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE U70S TO M80S.

ALSO...SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
SBCAPES HAVE REACHED 2000-3000+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. THE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES WITH LESS THAN 20
KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-35 KTS.
THEREFORE...BETTER...DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...WITH PULSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE 6.5 C/KM RANGE. IT
APPEARS THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE WIND...BUT WE WILL MENTION
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW...AND UPGRADE IF WE GET A
CONVECTIVE WATCH.

NOW...UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV IS MOVING ACROSS SE
ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION /ASIDE FROM THE PULSE
CONVECTION/. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP
BTWN 500-550 HPA THAT WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ROBUST SEVERE
WEATHER.

AT THIS POINT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE /5 OR LESS
REPORTS/...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF INDICATES ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS
OVER THE NRN TIER TOWARDS 00Z/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 211445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. THE HUMID
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM SECTOR WITH
SKY COVERAGE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION WHERE IT IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE NY/VT BORDER.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WES
00004000
T TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211419
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
FORECAST...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50" RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW DEPARTED THE FORECAST
AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN
VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT NORTH TO NE
ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS
REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN THE
MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
BNDRY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE
THIS INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
(LATE MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT
APPEARS BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS
WHERE 40-50 POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN
HRS. GOOD NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD
TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. FRONTAL ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS....AND THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON
THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
HAS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN
PLAY SO WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO
SCT -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX
IN THE MID-LATE AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB
RH WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS
WL BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.
THIS WL PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER
TEMPS...AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS CONT ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH VFR AT RUT/BTV...MVFR AT
MPV/SLK/MSS...AND IFR AT PBG. EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO IMPROVE BTWN
14-15Z AT PBG. RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
RUTLAND TAF SITE BTWN 13-16Z THIS MORNING WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BEST INSTABILITY/SFC HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTN WL BE AT SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE AFT 02Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR
TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT TUESDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC
00004000
IATED
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50"
RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW
DEPARTED THE FORECAST AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
INTL BORDER BETWEEN VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN
LIGHT NORTH TO NE ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL
VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN
THE MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN THIS
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE THIS
INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY (LATE
MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS WHERE 40-50
POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN HRS. GOOD
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS
NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FRONTAL
ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND
THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL
ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW
60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE
AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB RH
WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS WL
BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. THIS WL
PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER TEMPS...AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW
AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS CONT ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH VFR AT RUT/BTV...MVFR AT
MPV/SLK/MSS...AND IFR AT PBG. EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO IMPROVE BTWN
14-15Z AT PBG. RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
RUTLAND TAF SITE BTWN 13-16Z THIS MORNING WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS
BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEST
INSTABILITY/SFC HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WL
BE AT SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE. ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE AFT 02Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC
HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL START THE DRY RAIN FREE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM
AND MUGGY. SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE STRONG MAY SUN SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THIS FOG BY
ABOUT 8 AM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WEST TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
00004000

VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT TUESDAY...LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM - WHICH BROUGHT 0.25 TO 0.50"
RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS - HAS NOW
DEPARTED THE FORECAST AREA INTO NRN NH. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
INTL BORDER BETWEEN VT/QUEBEC SHIFTS EWD...SFC WINDS WILL TURN
LIGHT NORTH TO NE ACROSS NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTN WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND S-CENTRAL
VT IN PARTICULAR (TEMPS REACH 75-78F ACROSS SRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN). IN
THE MEANTIME...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...WITH 30-50 POPS FOR RAIN THIS
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE THIS
INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY (LATE
MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS WHERE 40-50
POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN HRS. GOOD
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS
NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FRONTAL
ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND
THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL
ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW
60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE
AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB RH
WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS WL
BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. THIS WL
PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER TEMPS...AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW
AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY..DIFFICULT TAFS WITH CRNT OBS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT MPV IN FOG TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BTV/RUT/MSS. EXPECT FOG TO
CONTINUE THRU 07Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MPV. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS ACRS WESTERN SLV...THIS PRECIP WL IMPACT SLK BY
07Z...PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 08Z-10Z...AND THRU OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNTS...HEAVY RAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY WITH A CHC OF IFR VIS/CIGS IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF LLVL RH
REDEVELOPING AFT 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK/MSS...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV. WINDS BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL
CIGS AT MSS/BTV. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONT THRU 14Z...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. BEST INSTABILITY/SFC
HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WL BE AT
SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE
WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL START THE DRY RAIN FREE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM
AND MUGGY. SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE STRONG MAY SUN SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THIS FOG BY
ABOUT 8 AM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WEST TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF AND
ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT KPSF. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING
EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR KSYR.  THERE
IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING AT AROUND 35
KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCER
00004000
NS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 210825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
JET...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS LINE HAS WEAKENED FROM EARLIER
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN IT PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
ACROSS CNY AND THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION. STILL...A QUICK DOWNPOUR
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN ADKS AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE. MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH WILL STAY DRY. BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE AND MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE DRY.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE TO THE W-SW.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF AND
ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT KPSF. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING
EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR KSYR.  THERE
IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING AT AROUND 35
KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE THIS
INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY (LATE
MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS WHERE 40-50
POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN HRS. GOOD
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS
NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FRONTAL
ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND
THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL
ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW
60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE
AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...TRENDS WL BE FOR DRIER AND COOLER WX AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WKND. BEST CHC FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WL BE LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS FRNT IS SLOW TO
EXIT OUR CWA...AND SECONDARY S/W ENERGY DROPS ACRS OUR FA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH 
00004000
LEFTOVER 850 TO 500MB RH
WL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST CHC POPS WL
BE ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS OF VT. OTHERWISE...COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA ON SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. THIS WL
PROVIDE REGION WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY...COOLER TEMPS...AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
ZNS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND NARROW
AXIS OF RH/LIFT WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM.

SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ON BY SUNDAY AFTN.
TEMPS WL START IN THE MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE U50S MTNS TO
L/M60S CPV/SLV...WITH LOW RH VALUES. A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER/DEEPER MTN VALLEYS WL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD...AS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY INTO
TUES...LLVL WAA DEVELOPS AND TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY..DIFFICULT TAFS WITH CRNT OBS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT MPV IN FOG TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BTV/RUT/MSS. EXPECT FOG TO
CONTINUE THRU 07Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MPV. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS ACRS WESTERN SLV...THIS PRECIP WL IMPACT SLK BY
07Z...PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 08Z-10Z...AND THRU OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNTS...HEAVY RAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY WITH A CHC OF IFR VIS/CIGS IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF LLVL RH
REDEVELOPING AFT 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK/MSS...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV. WINDS BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL
CIGS AT MSS/BTV. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONT THRU 14Z...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. BEST INSTABILITY/SFC
HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WL BE AT
SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE
WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WON/T BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...30-40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PER KTYX VAD
WIND PROFILE AT 0730Z CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOURCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MODERATELY STRONG 850MB WAA WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD THRU MID MORNING. ONCE THIS
INITIAL AREA OF ACTIVITY PASSES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY (LATE
MORNING/AFTN) WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR SRN CWA...AND THIS IS WHERE 40-50
POPS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS IS MENTIONED. 30 POP WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY FOR THE AFTN HRS. GOOD
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND SHOULD TREND LIGHT NORTH ACROSS
NRN VT AND NELY AROUND 10 KTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTN
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FRONTAL
ZONE/NORTH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS THIS AFTN...ANOTHER REASON IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1-1.25" OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS/SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER SURGE OF S-SW FLOW AT 850MB ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL
EVOLUTION SUGGESTS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS....AND
THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE...GENERALLY UPR 50S TO AROUND 60. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTM MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL
ZONE RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. PBL DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE INTO THE LOW
60S...AND WITH PARTIAL SUN CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGAIN...MARGINAL/WEAK FORCING IN PLAY SO WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS LOW...ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE...LIKELY PEAKING WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX IN THE MID-LATE
AFTN HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VALLEY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES SLOWLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY THURSDAY AFTN. DEEP-
LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL ENSURE
MOISTURE/SOME INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR AROUND 6 C/KM. WITH PEAK
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DURING THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 70S ACROSS VT TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR
70F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY..DIFFICULT TAFS WITH CRNT OBS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT MPV IN FOG TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BTV/RUT/MSS. EXPECT FOG TO
CONTINUE THRU 07Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MPV. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS ACRS WESTERN SLV...THIS PRECIP WL IMPACT SLK BY
07Z...PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 08Z-10Z...AND THRU OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNTS...HEAVY RAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY WITH A CHC OF IFR VIS/CIGS IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF LLVL RH
REDEVELOPING AFT 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK/MSS...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV. WINDS BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL
CIGS AT MSS/BTV. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONT THRU 14Z...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. BEST INSTABILITY/SFC
HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WL BE AT
SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE
WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1251 AM EDT TUESDAY...ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS VCNTY OF LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING EWD INTO
A REGION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...BUT IS ALSO BEING FED BY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OF 40-45 KTS PER KTYX VAD WIND PROFILE AT
0445Z. WHILE IT/S TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION...ACTIVITY IS
PROGRESSING EWD ALONG STATIONARY BNDRY WITH 850-700MB WAA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE EWD ACROSS NRN NY INTO NWRN VT 06-12Z TIME FRAME. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING EWD WITH
VALUES UP TO 600 J/KG INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VLY 09-12Z. LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY ALSO INDICATES SCATTERED CELLULAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
NEAR WRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE PRE-
EXISTING CONVECTIVE LINE.

ABOVE FACTORS WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NRN NY INTO
WRN VT NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH CHANCE OF TSTMS MENTIONED ACROSS
NRN NY AND SLIGHT CHANCE INTO WRN VT. COULD SEE A QUICK QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY ACTUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN MOVES EWD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOVER IN THE MID-UPR
50S MOST SECTIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY..DIFFICULT TAFS WITH CRNT OBS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT MPV IN FOG TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BTV/RUT/MSS. EXPECT FOG TO
CONTINUE THRU 07Z...BEFORE LIFTING AS MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AT
MPV. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS ACRS WESTERN SLV...THIS PRECIP WL IMPACT SLK BY
07Z...PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 08Z-10Z...AND THRU OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNTS...HEAVY RAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY WITH A CHC OF IFR VIS/CIG
00000F68
S IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RAP13 SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF LLVL RH
REDEVELOPING AFT 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK/MSS...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV. WINDS BEHIND LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...WHICH WL HELP TO ENHANCE LLVL
CIGS AT MSS/BTV. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONT THRU 14Z...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. BEST INSTABILITY/SFC
HEATING FOR ADDITIONS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN WL BE AT
SLK/RUT/MPV. MORE FOG/BR AND LOW CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LLVL
MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...BEFORE SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING DEVELOPS BY THE
WEEKEND. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 210531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON A TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT...A MILD AND MUGGY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE STILL WELL INTO THE 60S....AND TDS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ALL THE WAY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL.
A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA.

THE LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS TWO SEPARATE LINES OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND LAKE ONTARIO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED...DESPITE IT
BEING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AS
THESE STORMS CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THEY SHOULD GRAZE OUR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACK ZONES. WHILE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING ACROSS OUR AREA...ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND TO KEEP THE THUNDER RISK IN PLACE. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND DECENT MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...THERES NO REASON TO THINK THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS...THEY
STILL MAY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. THEY SHOULD BE MOVING EAST INTO VT BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
MINS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 
00004000
NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF
AND ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT
KPSF. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS
MOVING EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR
KSYR. THERE IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
AT AROUND 35 KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210501
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1251 AM EDT TUESDAY...ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS VCNTY OF LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING EWD INTO
A REGION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...BUT IS ALSO BEING FED BY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OF 40-45 KTS PER KTYX VAD WIND PROFILE AT
0445Z. WHILE IT/S TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION...ACTIVITY IS
PROGRESSING EWD ALONG STATIONARY BNDRY WITH 850-700MB WAA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE EWD ACROSS NRN NY INTO NWRN VT 06-12Z TIME FRAME. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING EWD WITH
VALUES UP TO 600 J/KG INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VLY 09-12Z. LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY ALSO INDICATES SCATTERED CELLULAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
NEAR WRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE PRE-
EXISTING CONVECTIVE LINE.

ABOVE FACTORS WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NRN NY INTO
WRN VT NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH CHANCE OF TSTMS MENTIONED ACROSS
NRN NY AND SLIGHT CHANCE INTO WRN VT. COULD SEE A QUICK QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY ACTUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN MOVES EWD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOVER IN THE MID-UPR
50S MOST SECTIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TREND FROM VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE LATER TONIGHT AND
DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AFTER 08Z. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR. WED- THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 210250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE U50S TO M60S OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVING EASTWARD AS A WEAK
WAVE/LOW MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT 
00004000
HOURS. STRATUS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER METMOS TEMPS WERE
ACCEPTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SARATOGA REGION...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND
MID AND U50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH THE LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
ALSO STRATUS SHOULD FORM WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS WITH MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL DUE TO FOG AND CIGS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/LOW WILL ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFER. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210208
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1008 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1008 PM EDT MONDAY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO REQUIRED SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE STRATIFORM AREA BEHIND THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST CORES SUGGESTS SOME ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CLUSTER ESPECIALLY THE BTV12 AND THE HRRR WHICH SHOW SOME
WEAKENING TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. SO EXPECT
SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH PRESENCE
OF MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 DEGREES C/KM PER 00Z BUF/ALB
RAOB SOUNDINGS AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES EAST. LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CLUSTER PROJECTED TO ENTER INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AFTER
05Z. THEREFORE...HAVE MENTIONED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS VERMONT. HAVE ALSO
RAISED LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TREND FROM VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE LATER TONIGHT AND
DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AFTER 08Z. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR. WED- THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 210036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE
U50S TO M60S OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH A LIGHT S/SE
FLOW IN 
00004000
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER METMOS TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA REGION...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MID AND U50S TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH THE LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
ALSO STRATUS SHOULD FORM WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS WITH MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL DUE TO FOG AND CIGS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/LOW WILL ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFER. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 202354
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
754 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AMBLES ABOUT THE NORTH EAST....RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 702 PM EDT MONDAY...WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL BE WATCHING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR POTENTIAL THAT THEY MAY SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER INSTABILITY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWALTER INDICES
ARE PROJECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT WHICH OFFERS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IN THESE AREAS. HAVEN`T MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HAVE
JUST MATCHED WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS BEING THE OUTLIER TAKES THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTN...WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 925MB TEMPS DEPICT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
WELL...WITH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NEK TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN LIFTED INDICES OF -2 FOR
AT LEAST NRN NY AND SRN HALF OF VT. SOME CAPE AND TEMP LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW TS TUESDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GEFS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL DEPICTED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
UPPER TEENS...POSSIBLY LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVES INTO
SERN ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SW FLOW...BRINGING IN MORE
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO -4 SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMP LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AT 30-40 KTS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND NEARING 80 ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
DUE TO CLOUDS...IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL USHER
IN COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES AS UPPER TROF
PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TROF
EVOLVES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OR SO AND WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER VALUES COULD CLIMB NEAR 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF BTV. IF THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +12C.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH
850 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY 12Z FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

A COOL NW FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0 WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY 35 TO 45.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TREND FROM VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE LATER TONIGHT AND
DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AFTER 08Z. THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR. WED- THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON

      
      

  
    
  
  
        US Dept of Commerce
          National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
          National Weather Service
          1325 East West Highway
          Silver Spring, MD 20910
          Page Author:  NWS Internet Services Team
    Disclaimer
      Information Quality
      Credits
      Glossary
    Privacy Policy
      Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
      About Us
      Career Opportunities
  

      
    
  

00000000