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0000A3B6000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASS
00004000
OCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 172338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS OF
EARLY EVENING. LATEST KCXX VWP DATA NOW SHOWING WINDS STARTING TO
BODILY TREND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SYNOPTIC FLOW RESPONDS
TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING SFC
FLOW TO RESPOND SHORTLY...AFTER WHICH BROAD-SCALE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SOUTHWARD AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT
RAINS/SNOWS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA...ESP NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
NO REAL COLD AIR AROUND HOWEVER SO DESPITE WIND SHIFT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY
OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY, PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-
CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW. OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH
SO THINKING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR,
WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOURS. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM 06-15Z. MPV/SLK
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV FROM 07-15Z...MSS 06-10Z...AND
RUT 07-11Z. PBG WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED WITH ONLY MINOR
REDUCTIONS...IF ANY AT ALL...EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FR
00004000
IDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 172324
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS OF
EARLY EVENING. LATEST KCXX VWP DATA NOW SHOWING WINDS STARTING TO
BODILY TREND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SYNOPTIC FLOW RESPONDS
TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING SFC
FLOW TO RESPOND SHORTLY...AFTER WHICH BROAD-SCALE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SOUTHWARD AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT
RAINS/SNOWS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA...ESP NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
NO REAL COLD AIR AROUND HOWEVER SO DESPITE WIND SHIFT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY
OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY, PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-
CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW. OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH
SO THINKING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR,
WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 172324
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS OF
EARLY EVENING. LATEST KCXX VWP DATA NOW SHOWING WINDS STARTING TO
BODILY TREND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SYNOPTIC FLOW RESPONDS
TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING SFC
FLOW TO RESPOND SHORTLY...AFTER WHICH BROAD-SCALE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SOUTHWARD AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT
RAINS/SNOWS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA...ESP NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
NO REAL COLD AIR AROUND HOWEVER SO DESPITE WIND SHIFT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY
OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY, PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-
CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW. OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH
SO THINKING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR,
WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 172146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATABASE...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE FROM ALBANY NORTH
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INTO THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST
ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER.
SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS
IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS 
0000B0E2
POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 172146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATABASE...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE FROM ALBANY NORTH
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INTO THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST
ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER.
SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS
IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 172050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE
FIRST ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 172050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE
FIRST ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 172039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO
TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK
IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY,
PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR
LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW.
OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH SO THINKING A DUSTING TO
AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE
HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING 
00004000
LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 172039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO
TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK
IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY,
PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR
LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW.
OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH SO THINKING A DUSTING TO
AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE
HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE ABOVE PREVIOUS
MAX TEMP SO SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT THERE, BUT AFTERNOON POPS AND
WX LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE HAS BEEN
MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE ABOVE PREVIOUS
MAX TEMP SO SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT THERE, BUT AFTERNOON POPS AND
WX LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE HAS BEEN
MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171737
AFDBTV

00003B2A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV
CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE
HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV
CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE
HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST...STILL DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OTHER THAN KPOU WHICH WAS WAS MVFR. AN UPPER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A
BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUN NIGHT-MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT 
00004000
THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST...STILL DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OTHER THAN KPOU WHICH WAS WAS MVFR. AN UPPER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A
BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUN NIGHT-MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 171636
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1135 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 171636
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1135 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTI
00004000
NUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV
CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE
HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV
CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE
HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV
CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE
HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THI
00004000
S
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV
CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE
HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 171304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
805 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 800 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG IN ACROSS THE BOARD
(PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG). OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES.

AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA AND WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.  THE PARENT LOW
OF THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S
TRIPLE POINT NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVIER
ECHOES...HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE BANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 171304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
805 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 800 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG IN ACROSS THE BOARD
(PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG). OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES.

AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA AND WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.  THE PARENT LOW
OF THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S
TRIPLE POINT NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKE
00004000
S.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVIER
ECHOES...HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE BANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 171304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
805 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 800 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG IN ACROSS THE BOARD
(PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG). OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES.

AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA AND WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.  THE PARENT LOW
OF THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S
TRIPLE POINT NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVIER
ECHOES...HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE BANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 171304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
805 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 800 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG IN ACROSS THE BOARD
(PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG). OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES.

AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA AND WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.  THE PARENT LOW
OF THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S
TRIPLE POINT NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME W
00004000
ITH HEAVIER
ECHOES...HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE BANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF
SLEET EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND
FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF
SLEET EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND
FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 171152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA
AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND.  THE PARENT LOW OF THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVIER
ECHOES...HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR T
00004000
HE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE BANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH
SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH
SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH
SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 IN
00004000
CHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH
SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH
SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH
SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH
SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
00004000
 SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 170900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS JUST FINISHING CROSSING
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS
STORM IS LOCATED NEAR LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW...AN AREA OF STEADY RAINFALL
HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES...ARE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST THANKS TO
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...AND THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER OR
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS IN
THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS URGED IF TRAVELING IN
THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
START TO RISE AFTER SUNRISE...AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES IMPACTING KPSF UNTIL ABOUT
11Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN THEIR GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND IN THE EVENING AT KALB AND
KGFL WITH MVFR LINGERS AT KPSF THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TODAY WITH THE WINDS INCREASING IN
SPEED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 170900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS JUST FINISHING CROSSING
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS
STORM IS LOCATED NEAR LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW...AN AREA OF STEADY RAINFALL
HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES...ARE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST THANKS TO
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...AND THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER OR
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS IN
THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS URGED IF TRAVELING IN
THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
START TO RISE AFTER SUNRISE...AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES IMPACTING KPSF UNTIL ABOUT
11Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN THEIR GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND IN THE EVENING AT KALB AND
KGFL WITH MVFR LINGERS AT KPSF THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TODAY WITH THE WINDS INCREASING IN
SPEED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
00004000
 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 170900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS JUST FINISHING CROSSING
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS
STORM IS LOCATED NEAR LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW...AN AREA OF STEADY RAINFALL
HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES...ARE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST THANKS TO
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...AND THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER OR
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS IN
THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS URGED IF TRAVELING IN
THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
START TO RISE AFTER SUNRISE...AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES IMPACTING KPSF UNTIL ABOUT
11Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN THEIR GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND IN THE EVENING AT KALB AND
KGFL WITH MVFR LINGERS AT KPSF THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TODAY WITH THE WINDS INCREASING IN
SPEED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREE
00004000
ZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170553
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170553
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER 
00003F78
UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170553
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170553
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 170551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE REGION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS 1251 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS
STORM IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR NORTH
JERSEY/NYC/LONG ISLAND.

STEADY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EVEN THERE...STEADY RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. WE WILL KEEP CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS UPSTREAMS RADAR ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
AREA. THE 02Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER EASTERN AREAS
AS WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE STRENGTHENING SFC
LOW NEAR THE COAST WILL HELP TO REDEVELOP RAINFALL FOR AREAS FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER ON EASTWARD.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOW TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY CLOSE
TO THEIR CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS OVER HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR OVER
THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. BY MID TO LATE MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND IN THE EVENING AT
KALB AND KGFL WITH MVFR LINGERS AT KPSF THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT
KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST

00004000
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 170551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE REGION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS 1251 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS
STORM IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR NORTH
JERSEY/NYC/LONG ISLAND.

STEADY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EVEN THERE...STEADY RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. WE WILL KEEP CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS UPSTREAMS RADAR ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
AREA. THE 02Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER EASTERN AREAS
AS WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE STRENGTHENING SFC
LOW NEAR THE COAST WILL HELP TO REDEVELOP RAINFALL FOR AREAS FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER ON EASTWARD.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOW TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY CLOSE
TO THEIR CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS OVER HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR OVER
THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. BY MID TO LATE MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND IN THE EVENING AT
KALB AND KGFL WITH MVFR LINGERS AT KPSF THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT
KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SLEET MIXED IN. SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO GET
ORGANIZED NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 PM TUESDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOVING INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA AFTER INITIAL BAND
AS WELL. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...WITH TOTAL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY REMAINING WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD IN VERMONT. THUS WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR A LOT
OF LOCATIONS...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT
(ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM).
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SLEET AS WELL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER ANY GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...SO WILL
COVER WITH AN SPS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT)...AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SLEET MIXED IN. SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO GET
ORGANIZED NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 PM TUESDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOVING INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA AFTER INITIAL BAND
AS WELL. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...WITH TOTAL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY REMAINING WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD IN VERMONT. THUS WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR A LOT
OF LOCATIONS...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT
(ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM).
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SLEET AS WELL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER ANY GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...SO WILL
COVER WITH AN SPS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT)...AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...
00004000
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 170251 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
951 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES. DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 930 PM EST...TEMPS IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING...BUT WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING IN THESE AREAS SINCE THE
LAST...THE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS BELOW FREEZING HAS DECREASED SINCE
THE LAST UPDATE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE POCKETS OF FREEZING
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. EXPECT THAT ONLY A THIN GLAZE OF
ICE IS POSSIBLE WHERE FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE HOURLY TEMPS GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS KEEP AVIATION CONDITIONS POOR. BY LATE MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
AS WESTERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT
TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SLEET MIXED IN. SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO GET
ORGANIZED NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 PM TUESDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOVING INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA AFTER INITIAL BAND
AS WELL. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...WITH TOTAL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY REMAINING WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD IN VERMONT. THUS WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR A LOT
OF LOCATIONS...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT
(ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM).
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SLEET AS WELL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER ANY GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...SO WILL
COVER WITH AN SPS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT)...AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO ALY
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WFO ALY/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...WFO ALY
AVIATION...EVENSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNE
00004000
SDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SLEET MIXED IN. SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO GET
ORGANIZED NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 PM TUESDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOVING INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA AFTER INITIAL BAND
AS WELL. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...WITH TOTAL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY REMAINING WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD IN VERMONT. THUS WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR A LOT
OF LOCATIONS...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT
(ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM).
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SLEET AS WELL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER ANY GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...SO WILL
COVER WITH AN SPS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT)...AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO ALY
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WFO ALY/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...WFO ALY
AVIATION...EVENSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SLEET MIXED IN. SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO GET
ORGANIZED NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 PM TUESDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOVING INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA AFTER INITIAL BAND
AS WELL. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...WITH TOTAL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY REMAINING WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD IN VERMONT. THUS WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR A LOT
OF LOCATIONS...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT
(ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM).
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SLEET AS WELL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER ANY GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...SO WILL
COVER WITH AN SPS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT)...AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO ALY
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WFO ALY/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...WFO ALY
AVIATION...EVENSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SLEET MIXED IN. SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO GET
ORGANIZED NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 PM TUESDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOVING INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA AFTER INITIAL BAND
AS WELL. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...WITH TOTAL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY REMAINING WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD IN VERMONT. THUS WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR A LOT
OF LOCATIONS...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT
(ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM).
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SLEET AS WELL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER ANY GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...SO WILL
COVER WITH AN SPS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT)...AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO ALY
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WFO ALY/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...WFO ALY
AVIATION...EVENSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 170016 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES. DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 700 PM EST...TEMPS IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND PCPN HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...AND IN SOME CASES SPOTTY...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH ONLY A THIN GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE WHERE
FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR. OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HOURLY TEMPS GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEV
00004000
ER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS KEEP AVIATION CONDITIONS POOR. BY LATE MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
AS WESTERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT
TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 170016 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES. DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 700 PM EST...TEMPS IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND PCPN HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...AND IN SOME CASES SPOTTY...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH ONLY A THIN GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE WHERE
FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR. OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HOURLY TEMPS GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS KEEP AVIATION CONDITIONS POOR. BY LATE MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
AS WESTERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT
TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 170016 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES. DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 700 PM EST...TEMPS IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND PCPN HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...AND IN SOME CASES SPOTTY...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH ONLY A THIN GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE WHERE
FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR. OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HOURLY TEMPS GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HE
00004000
ADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS KEEP AVIATION CONDITIONS POOR. BY LATE MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
AS WESTERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT
TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 170016 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES. DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 700 PM EST...TEMPS IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND PCPN HAS
BEEN VERY LIGHT...AND IN SOME CASES SPOTTY...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH ONLY A THIN GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE WHERE
FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR. OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HOURLY TEMPS GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS KEEP AVIATION CONDITIONS POOR. BY LATE MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
AS WESTERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT
TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170010
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EST TUESDAY...INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW
MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK NORTHE
00000C80
ASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED
AROUND THE AREA AFTER INITIAL BAND AS WELL. A SECONDARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT
HOWEVER...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY REMAINING WELL
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD IN VERMONT. THUS WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR A LOT
OF LOCATIONS...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT
(ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM).
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SLEET AS WELL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER ANY GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...SO WILL
COVER WITH AN SPS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT)...AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3
INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/
00004000
SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO ALY
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WFO ALY
LONG TERM...WFO ALY
AVIATION...EVENSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 170010
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EST TUESDAY...INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW
MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED
AROUND THE AREA AFTER INITIAL BAND AS WELL. A SECONDARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT
HOWEVER...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY REMAINING WELL
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD IN VERMONT. THUS WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR A LOT
OF LOCATIONS...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT
(ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM).
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SLEET AS WELL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER ANY GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...SO WILL
COVER WITH AN SPS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT)...AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3
INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO ALY
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WFO ALY
LONG TERM...WFO ALY
AVIATION...EVENSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 162349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS JUST
REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE
MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AT 32F. ELSEWHERE IN THE BURLINGTON FORECAST
AREA... TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST HAS UP TO
A TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH SOME AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST
BELOW FREEZING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND SLEET MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK...ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR
TWO. THIS COUPLED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION AROUND DAYBREAK INDICATES THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ANY FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 162349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS JUST
REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE
MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AT 32F. ELSEWHERE IN THE BURLINGTON FORECAST
AREA... TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST HAS UP TO
A TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH SOME AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST
BELOW FREEZING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND SLEET MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK...ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR
TWO. THIS COUPLED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION AROUND DAYBREAK INDICATES THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ANY FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 162137 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW AREAS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT HAVE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT BRISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 430 PM EST...THERE WERE A FEW REMOTE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND INDIAN LAKE IN HAMILTON COUNTY AS WELL AS PERU IN MASSACHUSETTS
REPORTING TEMPERATURES OF 32 OR 31 DEGREES. NO RAIN IN THESE AREAS
YET.

OTHERWISE NO ONE ELSE WAS REPORTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR REGION. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN HIGHER...SO
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY WET BULB
COOLING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT
00004000
...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 162137 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW AREAS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT HAVE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT BRISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 430 PM EST...THERE WERE A FEW REMOTE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND INDIAN LAKE IN HAMILTON COUNTY AS WELL AS PERU IN MASSACHUSETTS
REPORTING TEMPERATURES OF 32 OR 31 DEGREES. NO RAIN IN THESE AREAS
YET.

OTHERWISE NO ONE ELSE WAS REPORTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR REGION. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN HIGHER...SO
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY WET BULB
COOLING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 162137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW AREAS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT HAVE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT BRISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 430 PM EST...THERE WERE A FEW REMOTE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND INDIAN LAKE IN HAMILTON COUNTY AS WELL AS PERU IN MASSACHUSETTS
REPORTING TEMPERATURES OF 32 OR 31 DEGREES. NO RAIN IN THESE AREAS
YET.

OTHERWISE NO ONE ELSE WAS REPORTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR REGION. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN HIGHER...SO
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY WET BULB
COOLING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON

00004000
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 162137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW AREAS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT HAVE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT BRISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 430 PM EST...THERE WERE A FEW REMOTE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND INDIAN LAKE IN HAMILTON COUNTY AS WELL AS PERU IN MASSACHUSETTS
REPORTING TEMPERATURES OF 32 OR 31 DEGREES. NO RAIN IN THESE AREAS
YET.

OTHERWISE NO ONE ELSE WAS REPORTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR REGION. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN HIGHER...SO
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY WET BULB
COOLING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 162137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW AREAS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT HAVE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT BRISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 430 PM EST...THERE WERE A FEW REMOTE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND INDIAN LAKE IN HAMILTON COUNTY AS WELL AS PERU IN MASSACHUSETTS
REPORTING TEMPERATURES OF 32 OR 31 DEGREES. NO RAIN IN THESE AREAS
YET.

OTHERWISE NO ONE ELSE WAS REPORTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR REGION. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN HIGHER...SO
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY WET BULB
COOLING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF 
00004000
THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 162137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW AREAS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT HAVE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT BRISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 430 PM EST...THERE WERE A FEW REMOTE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND INDIAN LAKE IN HAMILTON COUNTY AS WELL AS PERU IN MASSACHUSETTS
REPORTING TEMPERATURES OF 32 OR 31 DEGREES. NO RAIN IN THESE AREAS
YET.

OTHERWISE NO ONE ELSE WAS REPORTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR REGION. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN HIGHER...SO
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY WET BULB
COOLING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EVEN IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD RISE A POINT OR TWO BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

WE WILL TAKE CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING RAIN...EARLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S  IN MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 162132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW AREAS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT HAVE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT BRISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 400 PM EST...NO ONE REPORTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR REGION. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN HIGHER...SO
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY WET BULB
COOLING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BUT THAT WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WE WILL TAKE
CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING DOWN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S (AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING) MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HO
00008000
WEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 162132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW AREAS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT HAVE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT BRISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 400 PM EST...NO ONE REPORTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR REGION. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN HIGHER...SO
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY WET BULB
COOLING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BUT THAT WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WE WILL TAKE
CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING DOWN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S (AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING) MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 162119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW AREAS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT HAVE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT BRISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 400 PM EST...NO ONE REPORTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR REGION. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN HIGHER...SO
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY WET BULB
COOLING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BUT THAT WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WE WILL TAKE
CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING DOWN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S (AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING) MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 162119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW AREAS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MIGHT HAVE SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURNS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT BRISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS 400 PM EST...NO ONE REPORTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR REGION. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN HIGHER...SO
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY WET BULB
COOLING.

LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR DETROIT MICHIGAN...HEADING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN...WAS JUST ENTERING OUR
WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL OVER SPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BUT THAT WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.
THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. WE WILL TAKE
CARE OF ANY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ISSUES WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS.

FOG HAS BEEN A PROBLEM ACROSS SOME OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WEBCAMS
INDICATING PLACES LIKE WOODFORD SOCKED IN DENSE FOG AT TIMES. WE
BELIEVE MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER 1000
FEET...SO NO FOG HEADLINES. WE WILL POSSIBLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS
WELL.

SO...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS MILD AIR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREST SOMETIME THIS EVENING WELL
INTO THE 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEY WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 40 FURTHER NORTH...AND WELL ABOVE
FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL THE COLDER PLACES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...DIPPING DOWN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S (AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING) MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS TO BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AROUND
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY BUT ANY THAT FALLS THAT DAY SHOULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 162105
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS JUST
REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE
MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AT 32F. ELSEWHERE IN THE BURLINGON FORECAST AREA...
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST HAS UP TO
A TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH SOME AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST
BELOW FREEZING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND SLEET MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK...ACUMULATING AN INCH OR
TWO. THIS COUPLED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION AROUND DAYBREAK INDICATES THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ANY FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT KMSS AND KSLK THIS EVENING...
AND OVERSPREADS ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT KMSS...KSLK AND KMPV.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SITES SHOULD SEE MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALY
NEAR TERM...ALY
SHORT TERM...ALY
LONG TERM...ALY
AVIATION...ALY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 162105
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS JUST
REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE
MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AT 32F. ELSEWHERE IN THE BURLINGON FORECAST AREA...
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST HAS UP TO
A TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH SOME AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST
BELOW FREEZING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND SLEET MAY PERSIST AC
00004000
ROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK...ACUMULATING AN INCH OR
TWO. THIS COUPLED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION AROUND DAYBREAK INDICATES THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ANY FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT KMSS AND KSLK THIS EVENING...
AND OVERSPREADS ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT KMSS...KSLK AND KMPV.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SITES SHOULD SEE MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALY
NEAR TERM...ALY
SHORT TERM...ALY
LONG TERM...ALY
AVIATION...ALY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. DELAYED PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS
TILL AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER THEN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT KMSS AND KSLK THIS EVENING...
AND OVERSPREADS ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT KMSS...KSLK AND KMPV.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SITES SHOULD SEE MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SND

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. DELAYED PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS
TILL AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER THEN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT KMSS AND KSLK THIS EVENING...
AND OVERSPREADS ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT KMSS...KSLK AND KMPV.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SITES SHOULD SEE MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SND

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. DELAYED PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS
TILL AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER THEN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT KMSS AND KSLK THIS EVENING...
AND OVERSPREADS ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT KMSS...KSLK AND KMPV.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SITES SHOULD SEE MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMP
0000C000
ROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SND

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. DELAYED PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS
TILL AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER THEN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT KMSS AND KSLK THIS EVENING...
AND OVERSPREADS ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT KMSS...KSLK AND KMPV.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SITES SHOULD SEE MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 161754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER
AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF RAIN WAS WORKING INTO CENTRAL NY
STATE. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES MOVING AT ITS
CURRENT SPEED...IT WILL LIKELY OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 300 PM...THE
HUDSON VALLEY (INCLUDING ALBANY) BETWEEN 5-6 PM AND OUR EASTERN
ZONES AFTER 800 PM.

MESO-WEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED SOME SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 30) IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MOST OTHER PLACES WERE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...MID TO UPPER 30S.

WE WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF ANY FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING IN
THOSE COLD SPOTS). THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR EVEN
SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO WET BULB COOLING...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF EITHER IS EXPECTED.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A
SURFACE WARM AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION.
THESE SFC FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE 35 TO 40
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 161754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER
AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF RAIN WAS WORKING INTO CENTRAL NY
STATE. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES MOVING AT ITS
CURRENT SPEED...IT WILL LIKELY OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 300 PM...THE
HUDSON VALLEY (INCLUDING ALBANY) BETWEEN 5-6 PM AND OUR EASTERN
ZONES AFTER 800 PM.

MESO-WEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED SOME SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 30) IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MOST OTHER PLACES WERE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...MID TO UPPER 30S.

WE WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF ANY FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING IN
THOSE COLD SPOTS). THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR EVEN
SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO WET BULB COOLING...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF EITHER IS EXPECTED.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A
SURFACE WARM AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION.
THESE SFC FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE 35 TO 40
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 161754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER
AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF RAIN WAS WORKING INTO CENTRAL NY
STATE. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES MOVING AT ITS
CURRENT SPEED...IT WILL LIKELY OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 300 PM...THE
HUDSON VALLEY (INCLUDING ALBANY) BETWEEN 5-6 PM AND OUR EASTERN
ZONES AFTER 800 PM.

MESO-WEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED SOME SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 30) IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MOST OTHER PLACES WERE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...MID TO UPPER 30S.

WE WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF ANY FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING IN
THOSE COLD SPOTS). THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR EVEN
SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO WET BULB COOLING...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF EITHER IS EXPECTED.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A
SURFACE WARM AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION.
THESE SFC FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE 35 TO 40
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 161754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER
AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF RAIN WAS WORKING INTO CENTRAL NY
STATE. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES MOVING AT ITS
CURRENT SPEED...IT WILL LIKELY OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 300 PM...THE
HUDSON VALLEY (INCLUDING ALBANY) BETWEEN 5-6 PM AND OUR EASTERN
ZONES AFTER 800 PM.

MESO-WEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED SOME SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 30) IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MOST OTHER PLACES WERE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...MID TO UPPER 30S.

WE WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF ANY FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING IN
THOSE COLD SPOTS). THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR EVEN
SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO WET BULB COOLING...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF EITHER IS EXPECTED.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A
SURFACE WARM AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION.
THESE SFC FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE 35 TO 40
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THESE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 161737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER
AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF RAIN WAS WORKING INTO CENTRAL NY
STATE. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES MOVING AT ITS
CURRENT SPEED...IT WILL LIKELY OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 300 PM...THE
HUDSON VALLEY (INCLUDING ALBANY) BETWEEN 5-6 PM AND OUR EASTERN
ZONES AFTER 800 PM.

MESO-WEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED SOME SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 30) IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MOST OTHER PLACES WERE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...MID TO UPPER 30S.

WE WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF ANY FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING IN
THOSE COLD SPOTS). THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR EVEN
SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO WET BULB COOLING...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF EITHER IS EXPECTED.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A
SURFACE WARM AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION.
THESE SFC FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE 35 TO 40
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 161737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER
AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF RAIN WAS WORKING INTO CENTRAL NY
STATE. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES MOVING AT ITS
CURRENT SPEED...IT WILL LIKELY OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 300 PM...THE
HUDSON VALLEY (INCLUDING ALBANY) BETWEEN 5-6 PM AND OUR EASTERN
ZONES AFTER 800 PM.

MESO-WEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED SOME SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 30) IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MOST OTHER PLACES WERE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...MID TO UPPER 30S.

WE WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF ANY FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING IN
THOSE COLD SPOTS). THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR EVEN
SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO WET BULB COOLING...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF EITHER IS EXPECTED.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A
SURFACE WARM AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION.
THESE SFC FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE 35 TO 40
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 161737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER
AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF RAIN WAS WORKING INTO CENTRAL NY
STATE. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES MOVING AT ITS
CURRENT SPEED...IT WILL LIKELY OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 300 PM...THE
HUDSON VALLEY (INCLUDING ALBANY) BETWEEN 5-6 PM AND OUR EASTERN
ZONES AFTER 800 PM.

MESO-WEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED SOME SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 30) IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MOST OTHER PLACES WERE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...MID TO UPPER 30S.

WE WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF ANY FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING IN
THOSE COLD SPOTS). THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR EVEN
SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO WET BULB COOLING...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF EITHER IS EXPECTED.

IT WILL
00008000
 CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A
SURFACE WARM AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION.
THESE SFC FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE 35 TO 40
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 161737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER
AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF RAIN WAS WORKING INTO CENTRAL NY
STATE. IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER AND CONTINUES MOVING AT ITS
CURRENT SPEED...IT WILL LIKELY OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 300 PM...THE
HUDSON VALLEY (INCLUDING ALBANY) BETWEEN 5-6 PM AND OUR EASTERN
ZONES AFTER 800 PM.

MESO-WEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED SOME SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 30) IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MOST OTHER PLACES WERE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...MID TO UPPER 30S.

WE WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF ANY FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING IN
THOSE COLD SPOTS). THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR EVEN
SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO WET BULB COOLING...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF EITHER IS EXPECTED.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A
SURFACE WARM AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION.
THESE SFC FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE 35 TO 40
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. DELAYED PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS
TILL AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER THEN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT
04Z, THEN SWITCHING TO RASN SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. DELAYED PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS
TILL AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER THEN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT
04Z, THEN SWITCHING TO RASN SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. DELAYED PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS
TILL AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER THEN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT
04Z, THEN SWITCHING TO RASN SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1033 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. DELAYED PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS
TILL AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER THEN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
00004000
. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT
04Z, THEN SWITCHING TO RASN SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KALY 161526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CLOUDY MORNING...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FOR LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER AIR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AS SEEN IN THE 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLIMB...HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS PER MESONET
OBSERVATIONS AT THE PRESENT TIME /THESE VALUES WERE NEAR 30F/.
REGIONAL RADARS REVEAL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER
WESTERN NY AND PURE EXTRAPOLATION WOULD SUGGEST ARRIVAL TIME
WOULD BE DELAYED ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWFA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL CUT BACK ON POPS/WX TIMING A FEW
MORE HOURS.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
WHILE THE MORNING HOURS LOOK DRY EVERYWHERE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A SURFACE WARM
AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THESE SFC
FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY...BUT THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO AVOID OUR AREA TO THE WEST BASED ON THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT...SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE
LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. IN MOST AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR JUST RAIN TO OCCUR...BUT IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...SFC TEMPS MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.

TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 161526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CLOUDY MORNING...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FOR LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER AIR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AS SEEN IN THE 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLIMB...HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS PER MESONET
OBSERVATIONS AT THE PRESENT TIME /THESE VALUES WERE NEAR 30F/.
REGIONAL RADARS REVEAL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER
WESTERN NY AND PURE EXTRAPOLATION WOULD SUGGEST ARRIVAL TIME
WOULD BE DELAYED ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWFA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL CUT BACK ON POPS/WX TIMING A FEW
MORE HOURS.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
WHILE THE MORNING HOURS LOOK DRY EVERYWHERE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A SURFACE WARM
AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THESE SFC
FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY...BUT THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO AVOID OUR AREA TO THE WEST BASED ON THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT...SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE
LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. IN MOST AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR JUST RAIN TO OCCUR...BUT IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...SFC TEMPS MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.

TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161155
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATI
00004000
ON TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT
04Z, THEN SWITCHING TO RASN SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161155
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT
04Z, THEN SWITCHING TO RASN SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 161148
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CLOUDY MORNING...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FOR LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER AIR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
THE MIDWEST NEAR CHICAGO. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
REGION...WITH A COMBINATION OFF BOTH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THIN...SOME FREEZING FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER IS STILL PRESENT.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
WHILE THE MORNING HOURS LOOK DRY EVERYWHERE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A SURFACE WARM
AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THESE SFC
FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY...BUT THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO AVOID OUR AREA TO THE WEST BASED ON THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT...SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE
LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. IN MOST AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR JUST RAIN TO OCCUR...BUT IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...SFC TEMPS MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING...WITH MID 20S TO LOW
30S. HOWEVER...THEY LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEA
00004000
THER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 161148
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CLOUDY MORNING...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FOR LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER AIR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
THE MIDWEST NEAR CHICAGO. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
REGION...WITH A COMBINATION OFF BOTH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THIN...SOME FREEZING FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER IS STILL PRESENT.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
WHILE THE MORNING HOURS LOOK DRY EVERYWHERE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A SURFACE WARM
AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THESE SFC
FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY...BUT THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO AVOID OUR AREA TO THE WEST BASED ON THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT...SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE
LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. IN MOST AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR JUST RAIN TO OCCUR...BUT IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...SFC TEMPS MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING...WITH MID 20S TO LOW
30S. HOWEVER...THEY LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN
CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT THE GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT
04Z, THEN SWITCHING TO RASN SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN
CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT THE GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. 
00004000
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT
04Z, THEN SWITCHING TO RASN SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN
CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT THE GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT
04Z, THEN SWITCHING TO RASN SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN
CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT THE GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT
04Z, THEN SWITCHING TO RASN SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 161135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CLOUDY MORNING...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FOR LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER AIR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
THE MIDWEST NEAR CHICAGO. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
REGION...WITH A COMBINATION OFF BOTH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THIN...SOME FREEZING FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER IS STILL PRESENT.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
WHILE THE MORNING HOURS LOOK DRY EVERYWHERE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A SURFACE WARM
AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THESE SFC
FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY...BUT THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO AVOID OUR AREA TO THE WEST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT...SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE
LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. IN MOST AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR JUST RAIN TO OCCUR...BUT IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...SFC TEMPS MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING...WITH MID 20S TO LOW
30S. HOWEVER...THEY LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAI
00004000
NLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN
CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT THE GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN
CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT THE GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN
CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT THE GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
C
00004000
ONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN
CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT THE GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT
WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A
TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 160915
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CLOUDY MORNING...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FOR LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DRIER AIR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 414 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
REGION...WITH A COMBINATION OFF BOTH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THIN...SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER IS STILL PRESENT.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...AS A
MOIST S-SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
WHILE THE MORNING HOURS LOOK DRY EVERYWHERE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND BOTH A SURFACE WARM
AND OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THESE SFC
FRONTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE LATE AFTN OR
EARLY EVENING. IN MOST AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR JUST
RAIN TO OCCUR...BUT IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...SFC TEMPS MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING...WITH MID 20S TO LOW
30S. HOWEVER...THEY LOOK TO WARM UP EVERYWHERE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND
IT/S OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE
POINT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
START TO DEEPEN TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP MAY START TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF PLAIN LIGHT RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING
ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF THIS
ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY...AS THE SFC LOW
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE
MAIN LOW WEAKENS OVER ONTARIO. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID 40S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS DOWNSLOPING ALLOWS FOR A WARMER
AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCUR...A FEW ADDITIONAL LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR OUTLYING
AREAS...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S /SOME LOW 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ ON
THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ALOFT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SEASONABLE
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160813
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING
SKY COVER WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND STALL OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN SEVERAL LOCATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY 
00004000
ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160813
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING
SKY COVER WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND STALL OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN SEVERAL LOCATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160813
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING
SKY COVER WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND STALL OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN SEVERAL LOCATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160813
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING
SKY COVER WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND STALL OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN SEVERAL LOCATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC
THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION
BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
00004000
...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 160612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDWEST. SKIES
ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH BOTH LOW STRATUS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT S-SE WIND...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF TOO MUCH
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...A
WEAK SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BRING A SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN BEFORE...WITH
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EVEN UP NORTH AS H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME SLEET AND
EVEN A LITTLE SNOW AT THE ONSET (DUE TO WETBULB COOLING) BUT THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN. THE GROUND IS
COLD...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS A SNOWPACK...SO WE FEEL IT WAS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN...EVEN IF AIR
TEMPERATURES WERE TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. ANY
COATING OF ICE WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN
ICE)...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WE WILL
CONTINUE MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS IN OUR HWO AS WELL AS
EMAILS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE TO
HOIST ADVISORIES JUST YET.

MEANWHILE...MOST VALLEY AREAS (OUTSIDE THE MOHAWK VALLEY) MIGHT STAY
JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE MOSTLY RAIN (MIXED
PERHAPS WITH A LITTLE ONSET SLEET AND SNOW...BUT NO FREEZING
RAIN).

AS THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM NEARS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE (AS THEY OFTEN DO) IN THE AREA WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS THE GREATEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE COULD CERTAINLY PUSH BACK INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY LIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS OF
PRECIPITATION

AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM PULL LATER WEDNESDAY...THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY...INDUCING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK
INTO THE REGION...COOLING TEMPERATURES AT THE H850 LEVEL BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT -5C. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT
POSSIBLY THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES AS WELL.
INITIALLY IT IS JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT A
RAIN SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE...WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION.

BY THURSDAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND YES...ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS (WITH SOME SUNNY
BREAKS SOUTH) AND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF VALLEY SNOW
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO
MID 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILLTOWNS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COOL
BACK TO AROUND 30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
VALLEYS...30 TO 35 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS OUR AREA IS LOCATED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NOVA SCOTIA...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND IN ITS WAKE...SOME SLIGHT TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS H850 AND H920 TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM -4C TO -6C AND -2C TO -4C RESPECTIVELY AS
SHOW IN THE LATEST 15/12Z NUMERICAL DATA. THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WE ARE MONITORING AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NEAR OUR REGION AND GIVE
SOME SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AS THIS
TIME SINCE WE ARE SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM ANY CONCLUSIVE OUTCOMES.
15/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILISTIC DATA HAVE A WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE NO CORRELATION WITH ONE ANOTHER AND
WHEN FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...POPS REMAIN AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. OVERALL...DURING THIS TIME
WE DO EXPECT THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY A LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EXCEPT AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WEDNESDAY. MVFR
WILL DEVELOP AT KPOU AS THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...ADIRONDACKS...AND GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 160612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDWEST. SKIES
ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH BOTH LOW STRATUS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT S-SE WIND...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF TOO MUCH
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LOWS NEAR 30 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...A
WEAK SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BRING A SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN BEFORE...WITH
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EVEN UP NORTH AS H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME SLEET AND
EVEN A LITTLE SNOW AT THE ONSET (DUE TO WETBULB COOLING) BUT THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN. THE GROUND IS
COLD...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS A SNOWPACK...SO WE FEEL IT WAS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN...EVEN IF AIR
TEMPERATURES WERE TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. ANY
COATING OF ICE WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN
ICE)...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WE WILL
CONTINUE MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS IN OUR HWO AS WELL AS
EMAILS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE TO
HOIST ADVISORIES JUST YET.

MEANWHILE...MOST VALLEY AREAS (OUTSIDE THE MOHAWK VALLEY) MIGHT STAY
JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE MOSTLY RAIN (MIXED
PERHAPS WITH A LITTLE ONSET SLEET AND SNOW...BUT NO FREEZING
RAIN).

AS THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM NEARS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE (AS THEY OFTEN DO) IN THE AREA WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS THE GREATEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE COULD CERTAINLY PUSH BACK INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY LIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS OF
PRECIPITATION

AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM PULL LATER WEDNESDAY...THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY...INDUCING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK
INTO THE REGION...COOLING TEMPERATURES AT THE H850 LEVEL BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT -5C. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT
POSSIBLY THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES AS WELL.
INITIALLY IT IS JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT A
RAIN SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE...WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION.

BY THURSDAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND YES...ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS (WITH SOME SUNNY
BREAKS SOUTH) AND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF VALLEY SNOW
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO
MID 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILLTOWNS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COOL
BACK TO AROUND 30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
VALLEYS...30 TO 35 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS OUR AREA IS LOCATED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NOVA SCOTIA...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND IN ITS WAKE...SOME SLIGHT TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS H850 AND H920 TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM -4C TO -6C AND -2C TO -4C RESPECTIVELY AS
SHOW IN THE LATEST 15/12Z NUMERICAL DATA. THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WE ARE MONITORING AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NEAR OUR REGION AND GIVE
SOME SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AS THIS
TIME SINCE WE ARE SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM ANY CONCLUSIVE OUTCOMES.
15/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILISTIC DATA HAVE A WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE NO CORRELATION WITH ONE ANOTHER AND
WHEN FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...POPS REMAIN AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. OVERALL...DURING THIS TIME
WE DO EXPECT THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT GETS CLOSER DURING THE DAY A LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD T
00004000
HE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EXCEPT AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WEDNESDAY. MVFR
WILL DEVELOP AT KPOU AS THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ENDING AS SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...ADIRONDACKS...AND GREENS. WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF JUST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES EXPECTED. DRY AND COLDER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160542
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1242 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING SKY COVER
WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL
OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN SEVERAL LOCATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE
REGION WHILE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ROTATE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES DURING THIS
PERIOD... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO A TRACE TO PERHAPS AN
INCH OR TWO. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW
ON FRIDAY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PREFERRED. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS.
GFS INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND BETTER
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS WELL
SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS
SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE
CONTINUED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN
OF RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NO EXTREME TEMPS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160542
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1242 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING SKY COVER
WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL
OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN SEVERAL LOCATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE
REGION WHILE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ROTATE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES DURING THIS
PERIOD... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO A TRACE TO PERHAPS AN
INCH OR TWO. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW
ON FRIDAY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PREFERRED. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS.
GFS INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND BETTER
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS WELL
SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS
SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE
CONTINUED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN
OF RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NO EXTREME TEMPS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1215 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEPS CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING SKY COVER WILL
TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL
OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 906 PM EST MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NOISE-LEVEL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FORECAST ONCE AGAIN HOLDING UP WELL. HEARD OF A REPORT OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE TAKING PLACE IN SOME LOCALES THIS EVENING. THINK
COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FOLLOWS...

IF YOU WERE JUST LOOKING AT PRESSURE LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
NOTHING ELSE YOU WOULD THINK IT WAS A GORGEOUS SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. BUT
THEN YOU`D LOOK AT THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND
REALIZE SURFACE CONDITIONS WERE QUITE THE OPPOSITE. A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH SET UP LAST NIGHT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WHICH BY OBSERVING HIGHER
ELEVATION WEBCAMS ON WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN, NY AND MOUNT MANSFIELD,
VT ONE CAN DEDUCE THE SATURATED LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT 1500 FT THICK!
DESPITE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS
INVERSION ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...SO FOR TONIGHT HAVE
KEPT IN A PERSISTENCE FORECAS
00004000
T IN REGARDS TO SKY COVER WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 2500 AND LOWER...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THE
HIGHER SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET. HAVEN`T OBSERVED ANY REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK...AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE IT OUT
HAVEN`T ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND WIND FIELDS BASICALLY NIL...TEMPS WON`T BE DROPPING
MUCH EITHER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY FALLING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
FROM CURRENT READINGS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S...THOUGH
30S ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE
REGION WHILE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ROTATE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES DURING THIS
PERIOD... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO A TRACE TO PERHAPS AN
INCH OR TWO. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW
ON FRIDAY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PREFERRED. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS.
GFS INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND BETTER
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS WELL
SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS
SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE
CONTINUED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN
OF RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NO EXTREME TEMPS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1215 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEPS CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING SKY COVER WILL
TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL
OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 906 PM EST MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NOISE-LEVEL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FORECAST ONCE AGAIN HOLDING UP WELL. HEARD OF A REPORT OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE TAKING PLACE IN SOME LOCALES THIS EVENING. THINK
COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FOLLOWS...

IF YOU WERE JUST LOOKING AT PRESSURE LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
NOTHING ELSE YOU WOULD THINK IT WAS A GORGEOUS SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. BUT
THEN YOU`D LOOK AT THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND
REALIZE SURFACE CONDITIONS WERE QUITE THE OPPOSITE. A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH SET UP LAST NIGHT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WHICH BY OBSERVING HIGHER
ELEVATION WEBCAMS ON WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN, NY AND MOUNT MANSFIELD,
VT ONE CAN DEDUCE THE SATURATED LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT 1500 FT THICK!
DESPITE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS
INVERSION ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...SO FOR TONIGHT HAVE
KEPT IN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO SKY COVER WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 2500 AND LOWER...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THE
HIGHER SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET. HAVEN`T OBSERVED ANY REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK...AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE IT OUT
HAVEN`T ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND WIND FIELDS BASICALLY NIL...TEMPS WON`T BE DROPPING
MUCH EITHER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY FALLING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
FROM CURRENT READINGS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S...THOUGH
30S ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE
REGION WHILE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ROTATE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES DURING THIS
PERIOD... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO A TRACE TO PERHAPS AN
INCH OR TWO. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW
ON FRIDAY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PREFERRED. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS.
GFS INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND BETTER
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS WELL
SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS
SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE
CONTINUED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN
OF RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NO EXTREME TEMPS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1215 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEPS CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING SKY COVER WILL
TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL
OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 906 PM EST MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NOISE-LEVEL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FORECAST ONCE AGAIN HOLDING UP WELL. HEARD OF A REPORT OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE TAKING PLACE IN SOME LOCALES THIS EVENING. THINK
COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FOLLOWS...

IF YOU WERE JUST LOOKING AT PRESSURE LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
NOTHING ELSE YOU WOULD THINK IT WAS A GORGEOUS SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. BUT
THEN YOU`D LOOK AT THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND
REALIZE SURFACE CONDITIONS WERE QUITE THE OPPOSITE. A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH SET UP LAST NIGHT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WHICH BY OBSERVING HIGHER
ELEVATION WEBCAMS ON WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN, NY AND MOUNT MANSFIELD,
VT ONE CAN DEDUCE THE SATURATED LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT 1500 FT THICK!
DESPITE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS
INVERSION ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...SO FOR TONIGHT HAVE
KEPT IN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO SKY COVER WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 2500 AND LOWER...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THE
HIGHER SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET. HAVEN`T OBSERVED ANY REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK...AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE IT OUT
HAVEN`T ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND WIND FIELDS BASICALLY NIL...TEMPS WON`T BE DROPPING
MUCH EITHER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY FALLING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
FROM CURRENT READINGS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S...THOUGH
30S ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACH
00002058
ES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE
REGION WHILE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ROTATE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES DURING THIS
PERIOD... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO A TRACE TO PERHAPS AN
INCH OR TWO. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW
ON FRIDAY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PREFERRED. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS.
GFS INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND BETTER
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS WELL
SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS
SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE
CONTINUED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN
OF RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NO EXTREME TEMPS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1215 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEPS CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING SKY COVER WILL
TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL
OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 906 PM EST MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NOISE-LEVEL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FORECAST ONCE AGAIN HOLDING UP WELL. HEARD OF A REPORT OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE TAKING PLACE IN SOME LOCALES THIS EVENING. THINK
COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FOLLOWS...

IF YOU WERE JUST LOOKING AT PRESSURE LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
NOTHING ELSE YOU WOULD THINK IT WAS A GORGEOUS SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. BUT
THEN YOU`D LOOK AT THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND
REALIZE SURFACE CONDITIONS WERE QUITE THE OPPOSITE. A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH SET UP LAST NIGHT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WHICH BY OBSERVING HIGHER
ELEVATION WEBCAMS ON WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN, NY AND MOUNT MANSFIELD,
VT ONE CAN DEDUCE THE SATURATED LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT 1500 FT THICK!
DESPITE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS
INVERSION ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...SO FOR TONIGHT HAVE
KEPT IN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO SKY COVER WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 2500 AND LOWER...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THE
HIGHER SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET. HAVEN`T OBSERVED ANY REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK...AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE IT OUT
HAVEN`T ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND WIND FIELDS BASICALLY NIL...TEMPS WON`T BE DROPPING
MUCH EITHER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY FALLING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
FROM CURRENT READINGS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S...THOUGH
30S ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEA
00004000
ST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE
REGION WHILE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ROTATE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES DURING THIS
PERIOD... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO A TRACE TO PERHAPS AN
INCH OR TWO. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW
ON FRIDAY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PREFERRED. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS.
GFS INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND BETTER
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS WELL
SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS
SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE
CONTINUED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN
OF RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NO EXTREME TEMPS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 160302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...CLOUDS HAVE NOW SPREAD EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST DUTCHESS AND MOST OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT EXPECT THESE AREAS TO CLOUD UP
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...A
WEAK SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BRING A SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN BEFORE...WITH
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EVEN UP NORTH AS H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME SLEET AND
EVEN A LITTLE SNOW AT THE ONSET (DUE TO WETBULB COOLING) BUT THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN. THE GROUND IS
COLD...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS A SNOWPACK...SO WE FEEL IT WAS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN...EVEN IF AIR
TEMPERATURES WERE TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. ANY
COATING OF ICE WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN
ICE)...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WE WILL
CONTINUE MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS IN OUR HWO AS WELL AS
EMAILS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE TO
HOIST ADVISORIES JUST YET.

MEANWHILE...MOST VALLEY AREAS (OUTSIDE THE MOHAWK VALLEY) MIGHT STAY
JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE MOSTLY RAIN (MIXED
PERHAPS WITH A LITTLE ONSET SLEET AND SNOW...BUT NO FREEZING
RAIN).

AS THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM NEARS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE (AS THEY OFTEN DO) IN THE AREA WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS THE GREATEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE COULD CERTAINLY PUSH BACK INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY LIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS OF
PRECIPITATION

AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM PULL LATER WEDNESDAY...THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY...INDUCING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK
INTO THE REGION...COOLING TEMPERATURES AT THE H850 LEVEL BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT -5C. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT
POSSIBLY THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES AS WELL.
INITIALLY IT IS JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT A
RAIN SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE...WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION.

BY THURSDAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND YES...ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS (WITH SOME SUNNY
BREAKS SOUTH) AND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF VALLEY SNOW
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO
MID 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILLTOWNS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COOL
BACK TO AROUND 30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
VALLEYS...30 TO 35 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS OUR AREA IS LOCATED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NOVA SCOTIA...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND IN ITS WAKE...SOME SLIGHT TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS H850 AND H920 TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM -4C TO -6C AND -2C TO -4C RESPECTIVELY AS
SHOW IN THE LATEST 15/12Z NUMERICAL DATA. THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WE ARE MONITORING AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NEAR OUR REGION AND GIVE
SOME SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AS THIS
TIME SINCE WE ARE SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM ANY CONCLUSIVE OUTCOMES.
15/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILISTIC DATA HAVE A WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE NO CORRELATION WITH ONE ANOTHER AND
WHEN FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...POPS REMAIN AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. OVERALL...DURING THIS TIME
WE DO EXPECT THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT THE KGFL/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH KGFL POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT KPSF EXPECT IFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN MVFR.IFR CIGS ON TUESDAY. AT
KPOU...CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS DECK SPREADS SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
MVFR CIGS CONTINUING ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY CALM OR
LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
SLOWLY MELT EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
CATSKILLS...ADIRONDACKS...AND GREENS. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
JUST A QUARTER INCH...SO THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 160302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...CLOUDS HAVE NOW SPREAD EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST DUTCHESS AND MOST OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT EXPECT THESE AREAS TO CLOUD UP
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...A
WEAK SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BRING A SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN BEFORE...WITH
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EVEN UP NORTH AS H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME SLEET AND
EVEN A LITTLE SNOW AT THE ONSET (DUE TO WETBULB COOLING) BUT THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN. THE GROUND IS
COLD...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS A SNOWPACK...SO WE FEEL IT WAS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN...EVEN IF AIR
TEMPERATURES WERE TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. ANY
COATING OF ICE WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN
ICE)...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WE WILL
CONTINUE MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS IN OUR HWO AS WELL AS
EMAILS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE TO
HOIST ADVISORIES JUST YET.

MEANWHILE...MOST VALLEY AREAS (OUTSIDE THE MOHAWK VALLEY) MIGHT STAY
JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE MOSTLY RAIN (MIXED
PERHAPS WITH A LITTLE ONSET SLEET AND SNOW...BUT NO FREEZING
RAIN).

AS THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM NEARS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE (AS THEY OFTEN DO) IN THE AREA WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS THE GREATEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE COULD CERTAINLY PUSH BACK INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY LIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS OF
PRECIPITATION

AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM PULL LATER WEDNESDAY...THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY...INDUCING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK
INTO THE REGION...COOLING TEMPERATURES AT THE H850 LEVEL BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT -5C. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT
POSSIBLY THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES AS WELL.
INITIALLY IT IS JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT A
RAIN SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE...WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION.

BY THURSDAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH SEASONABLY C
00004000
HILLY
TEMPERATURES AND YES...ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS (WITH SOME SUNNY
BREAKS SOUTH) AND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF VALLEY SNOW
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO
MID 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILLTOWNS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COOL
BACK TO AROUND 30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
VALLEYS...30 TO 35 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS OUR AREA IS LOCATED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NOVA SCOTIA...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND IN ITS WAKE...SOME SLIGHT TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS H850 AND H920 TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM -4C TO -6C AND -2C TO -4C RESPECTIVELY AS
SHOW IN THE LATEST 15/12Z NUMERICAL DATA. THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WE ARE MONITORING AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NEAR OUR REGION AND GIVE
SOME SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AS THIS
TIME SINCE WE ARE SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM ANY CONCLUSIVE OUTCOMES.
15/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILISTIC DATA HAVE A WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE NO CORRELATION WITH ONE ANOTHER AND
WHEN FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...POPS REMAIN AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. OVERALL...DURING THIS TIME
WE DO EXPECT THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT THE KGFL/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH KGFL POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT KPSF EXPECT IFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN MVFR.IFR CIGS ON TUESDAY. AT
KPOU...CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS DECK SPREADS SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
MVFR CIGS CONTINUING ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY CALM OR
LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
SLOWLY MELT EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
CATSKILLS...ADIRONDACKS...AND GREENS. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
JUST A QUARTER INCH...SO THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 160302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...CLOUDS HAVE NOW SPREAD EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST DUTCHESS AND MOST OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT EXPECT THESE AREAS TO CLOUD UP
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...A
WEAK SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BRING A SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN BEFORE...WITH
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EVEN UP NORTH AS H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME SLEET AND
EVEN A LITTLE SNOW AT THE ONSET (DUE TO WETBULB COOLING) BUT THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN. THE GROUND IS
COLD...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS A SNOWPACK...SO WE FEEL IT WAS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN...EVEN IF AIR
TEMPERATURES WERE TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. ANY
COATING OF ICE WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN
ICE)...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WE WILL
CONTINUE MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS IN OUR HWO AS WELL AS
EMAILS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE TO
HOIST ADVISORIES JUST YET.

MEANWHILE...MOST VALLEY AREAS (OUTSIDE THE MOHAWK VALLEY) MIGHT STAY
JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE MOSTLY RAIN (MIXED
PERHAPS WITH A LITTLE ONSET SLEET AND SNOW...BUT NO FREEZING
RAIN).

AS THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM NEARS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE (AS THEY OFTEN DO) IN THE AREA WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS THE GREATEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE COULD CERTAINLY PUSH BACK INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY LIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS OF
PRECIPITATION

AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM PULL LATER WEDNESDAY...THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY...INDUCING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK
INTO THE REGION...COOLING TEMPERATURES AT THE H850 LEVEL BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT -5C. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT
POSSIBLY THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES AS WELL.
INITIALLY IT IS JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT A
RAIN SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE...WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION.

BY THURSDAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND YES...ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS (WITH SOME SUNNY
BREAKS SOUTH) AND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF VALLEY SNOW
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO
MID 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILLTOWNS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COOL
BACK TO AROUND 30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
VALLEYS...30 TO 35 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS OUR AREA IS LOCATED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NOVA SCOTIA...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND IN ITS WAKE...SOME SLIGHT TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS H850 AND H920 TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM -4C TO -6C AND -2C TO -4C RESPECTIVELY AS
SHOW IN THE LATEST 15/12Z NUMERICAL DATA. THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WE ARE MONITORING AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NEAR OUR REGION AND GIVE
SOME SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AS THIS
TIME SINCE WE ARE SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM ANY CONCLUSIVE OUTCOMES.
15/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILISTIC DATA HAVE A WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE NO CORRELATION WITH ONE ANOTHER AND
WHEN FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...POPS REMAIN AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. OVERALL...DURING THIS TIME
WE DO EXPECT THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT THE KGFL/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH KGFL POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT KPSF EXPECT IFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN MVFR.IFR CIGS ON TUESDAY. AT
KPOU...CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS DECK SPREADS SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
MVFR CIGS CONTINUING ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY CALM OR
LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
SLOWLY MELT EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
CATSKILLS...ADIRONDACKS...AND GREENS. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
JUST A QUARTER INCH...SO THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 160302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN
FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...CLOUDS HAVE NOW SPREAD EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST DUTCHESS AND MOST OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT EXPECT THESE AREAS TO CLOUD UP
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND
ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...A
WEAK SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BRING A SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN BEFORE...WITH
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EVEN UP NORTH AS H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME SLEET AND
EVEN A LITTLE SNOW AT THE ONSET (DUE TO WETBULB COOLING) BUT THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN. THE GROUND IS
COLD...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS A SNOWPACK...SO WE FEEL IT WAS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN...EVEN IF AIR
TEMPERATURES WERE TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. ANY
COATING OF ICE WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN
ICE)...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. WE WILL
CONTINUE MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS IN OUR HWO AS WELL AS
EMAILS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE TO
HOIST ADVISORIES JUST YET.

MEANWHILE...MOST VALLEY AREAS (OUTSIDE THE MOHAWK VALLEY) MIGHT STAY
JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE MOSTLY RAIN (MIXED
PERHAPS WITH A LITTLE ONSET SLEET AND SNOW...BUT NO FREEZING
RAIN).

AS THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM NEARS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE (AS THEY OFTEN DO) IN THE AREA WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS THE GREATEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE COULD CERTAINLY PUSH BACK INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY LIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS OF
PRECIPITATION

AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM PULL LATER WEDNESDAY...THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY...INDUCING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK
INTO THE REGION...COOLING TEMPERATURES AT THE H850 LEVEL BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT -5C. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT
POSSIBLY THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES AS WELL.
INITIALLY IT IS JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT A
RAIN SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
F
00004000
OR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE...WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION.

BY THURSDAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND YES...ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS (WITH SOME SUNNY
BREAKS SOUTH) AND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF VALLEY SNOW
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO
MID 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILLTOWNS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COOL
BACK TO AROUND 30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
VALLEYS...30 TO 35 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS OUR AREA IS LOCATED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NOVA SCOTIA...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND IN ITS WAKE...SOME SLIGHT TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS H850 AND H920 TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM -4C TO -6C AND -2C TO -4C RESPECTIVELY AS
SHOW IN THE LATEST 15/12Z NUMERICAL DATA. THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WE ARE MONITORING AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NEAR OUR REGION AND GIVE
SOME SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AS THIS
TIME SINCE WE ARE SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM ANY CONCLUSIVE OUTCOMES.
15/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILISTIC DATA HAVE A WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE NO CORRELATION WITH ONE ANOTHER AND
WHEN FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...POPS REMAIN AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. OVERALL...DURING THIS TIME
WE DO EXPECT THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT THE KGFL/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH KGFL POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT KPSF EXPECT IFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN MVFR.IFR CIGS ON TUESDAY. AT
KPOU...CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS DECK SPREADS SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
MVFR CIGS CONTINUING ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY CALM OR
LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
SLOWLY MELT EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WILL FALL ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
CATSKILLS...ADIRONDACKS...AND GREENS. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
JUST A QUARTER INCH...SO THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY HAVE A MINOR
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160206
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
906 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEPS CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING SKY COVER WILL
TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL
OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 906 PM EST MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NOISE-LEVEL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FORECAST ONCE AGAIN HOLDING UP WELL. HEARD OF A REPORT OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE TAKING PLACE IN SOME LOCALES THIS EVENING. THINK
COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FOLLOWS...

IF YOU WERE JUST LOOKING AT PRESSURE LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
NOTHING ELSE YOU WOULD THINK IT WAS A GORGEOUS SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. BUT
THEN YOU`D LOOK AT THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND
REALIZE SURFACE CONDITIONS WERE QUITE THE OPPOSITE. A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH SET UP LAST NIGHT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WHICH BY OBSERVING HIGHER
ELEVATION WEBCAMS ON WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN, NY AND MOUNT MANSFIELD,
VT ONE CAN DEDUCE THE SATURATED LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT 1500 FT THICK!
DESPITE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS
INVERSION ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...SO FOR TONIGHT HAVE
KEPT IN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO SKY COVER WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 2500 AND LOWER...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THE
HIGHER SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET. HAVEN`T OBSERVED ANY REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK...AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE IT OUT
HAVEN`T ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND WIND FIELDS BASICALLY NIL...TEMPS WON`T BE DROPPING
MUCH EITHER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY FALLING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
FROM CURRENT READINGS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S...THOUGH
30S ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE DURING
THIS PERIOD DUE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO A TRACE TO PERHAPS AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON
FRIDAY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PREFERRED. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS.
GFS INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND BETTER DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW
WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF RIDGING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NO EXTREME TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160206
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
906 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEPS CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING SKY COVER WILL
TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL
OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 906 PM EST MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NOISE-LEVEL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FORECAST ONCE AGAIN HOLDING UP WELL. HEARD OF A REPORT OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE TAKING PLACE IN SOME LOCALES THIS EVENING. THINK
COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FOLLOWS...

IF YOU WERE JUST LOOKING AT PRESSURE LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
NOTHING ELSE YOU WOULD THINK IT WAS A GORGEOUS SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. BUT
THEN YOU`D LOOK AT THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND
REALIZE SURFACE CONDITIONS WERE QUITE THE OPPOSITE. A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH SET UP LAST NIGHT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WHICH BY OBSERVING HIGHER
ELEVATION WEBCAMS ON WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN, NY AND MOUNT MANSFIELD,
VT ONE CAN DEDUCE THE SATURATED LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT 1500 FT THICK!
DESPITE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS
INVERSION ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...SO FOR TONIGHT HAVE
KEPT IN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO SKY COVER WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 2500 AND LOWER...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THE
HIGHER SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET. HAVEN`T OBSERVED ANY REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK...AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE IT OUT
HAVEN`T ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND WIND FIELDS BASICALLY NIL...TEMPS WON`T BE DROPPING
MUCH EITHER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY FALLING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
FROM CURRENT READINGS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S...THOUGH
30S ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS ABOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE
GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER
LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WIT
000017B7
H
SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE DURING
THIS PERIOD DUE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO A TRACE TO PERHAPS AN INCH
OR TWO. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON
FRIDAY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH CANADIAN
MARITIMES. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PREFERRED. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS.
GFS INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND BETTER DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW
WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF RIDGING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NO EXTREME TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH
BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A
VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE
INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION
THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z
(LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND
SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO

      
      

  
    
  
  
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