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000
FXUS61 KBTV 300041
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
841 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will come to an end by midnight. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 840 PM EDT Wednesday...going forecast looks pretty good. did
only cosmetic tweaks to: 1) remove the small hail aspect of the
forecast given the downward trends from radar and instability
analysis 2) incorporate in some 18z guidance regarding patchy
dense fog potential. given recent rains and expected clearing and
light winds, we should see fairly thick fog develop by midnight in
normally fog prone river valleys.

Overnight lows generally low-mid 50s, except a few 40s in the nrn
Adirondacks.

Weak ridge of high pressure in place surface and aloft on Thursday
with generally light winds and mostly sunny conditions. High temps
generally upr 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Weak ridging on Thursday will
continue into Thursday night, shifting east by Friday morning.
For Friday southerly gradient winds increase in advance of next
surface trough and vigorous 500 mb trough moving through the great
lakes. Rain begins Friday afternoon in the warm air advection
pattern and continues until a cold frontal passage Friday night.
Some ingredients present for heavy rainfall Friday and added it to
the forecast 18-24z Friday. 850 mb flow from the south at 20-30
knots will bring in low level moisture along/ahead of the
boundary. Model sounding shows tall skinny CAPE profile, with
relatively low CAPE value and saturated conditions. Warm cloud
depth just a little shy of the preferred 3km depth, and
Precipitable Water values near 1.4-1.5" are in the 75th
percentile. Playing down the severe threat now with surface max
temps forecast in the upper 70s to near 80 which would reduce
CAPE. 0-3 km shear less than 30kts, and highest shear values
coincide with the frontal passage later Friday and do not line up
well with the thermodynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest uplslope flow. As a result chance showers during daytime
heating Saturday, mainly across the northern portion of the area
closer to the upper low centered over Quebec. Cool through the
weekend until the upper low begins to pull away on Monday, with a
dry 3rd & 4th of July forecast.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and
PA on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z friday...scattered showers across northern new york
should be gone by 03z. expecting mvfr to ifr conditions with
patchy dense fog. thinking SLK, MPV are most succeptible, however
RUT and MSS getting in on the fog action is not out of the
question either. any morning fog is gone around 12z, leaving vfr
area wide for all day thursday.

Outlook 00z friday through Monday...

00z friday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK 06-12Z Friday morning.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

For Friday, heavy rainfall potential raises local flood concerns.
Factors arguing against flood threat is rainfall will be a quick
hit between 18z and 00z, and despite recent rainfall overall
antecedent conditions remain fairly dry. Biggest concern would be
for heavy rainers over small areas to produce flash flooding,
especially if rain falls over the isolated spots where we`ve had
rain in the past 24 hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Nash
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Banacos/Nash
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Hanson

000
FXUS61 KALY 292324
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
724 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable
weather pattern is expected for the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT, still a few isolated showers across portions of
the southern Adirondacks, including one near Lake George. Although
the main upper level disturbance has moved east of the region,
enough instability remains to allow for these isolated showers.
Will keep slight chances across the southern Adirondacks and
southern VT through around 10 PM, when the loss of daytime heating
should allow the threat for any showers to end.

Otherwise, both surface pressures and heights aloft rise with
clearing skies and light winds overnight. This would also set the
stage for some patchy fog. Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with
some upper 40s into the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should
result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and
winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around
H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for
valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain.

In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives
southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river
valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes
region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return
flow of increasing moisture.

The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95,
however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight
Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as
lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson
Valley).

An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper
trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced
lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing,
they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over
upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support
deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES
toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient
to support organized line elements with average values around
30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River
Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft
backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday
should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s
expected due to the cloud coverage increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure
building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and
continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday.  A low
pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic
States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm
early Tue into Wed.

Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of
NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and
sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region.  High
pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region
with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains.  Lows
both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.  Humidity levels will be
very comfortable for early July.

On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and
upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal.  A low pressure
system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region
late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY
and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July
normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain.  A few showers may reach the lower to
mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more
humid in the W to NW flow aloft.  Another disturbance may pass south
of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  It is hard
to time disturbances in the fast flow.  Highs could reach the upper
80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over
the hills and mountains.

Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will move east of the region this
evening. High Pressure will ridge in from lower Great Lakes
Region tonight into Thursday.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPSF/KGFL between
07Z-11Z/THU. The mist/fog should burn off quickly by 12Z/Thu due
to decent mixing and the strong late June sun.

West to northwest winds at 5-10 KT will become light to calm
prior to midnight. Light west to northwest winds will pick up at
between 14Z-16Z/Thu at 5-10 kts, although may be occasionally
variable in direction at KGFL due to local topographical effects.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40
percent...

In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle
into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern
is expected for the long holiday weekend.

Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly
on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into
this evening with minimal impacts expected. Dry weather is then
expected tonight through Thursday night as high pressure builds
back into the region.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.
Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy rainfall.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...KL/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 292324
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
724 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable
weather pattern is expected for the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT, still a few isolated showers across portions of
the southern Adirondacks, including one near Lake George. Although
the main upper level disturbance has moved east of the region,
enough instability remains to allow for these isolated showers.
Will keep slight chances across the southern Adirondacks and
southern VT through around 10 PM, when the loss of daytime heating
should allow the threat for any showers to end.

Otherwise, both surface pressures and heights aloft rise with
clearing skies and light winds overnight. This would also set the
stage for some patchy fog. Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with
some upper 40s into the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should
result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and
winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around
H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for
valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain.

In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives
southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river
valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes
region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return
flow of increasing moisture.

The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95,
however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight
Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as
lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson
Valley).

An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper
trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced
lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing,
they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over
upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support
deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES
toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient
to support organized line elements with average values around
30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River
Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft
backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday
should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s
expected due to the cloud coverage increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure
building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and
continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday.  A low
pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic
States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm
early Tue into Wed.

Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of
NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and
sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region.  High
pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region
with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains.  Lows
both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.  Humidity levels will be
very comfortable for early July.

On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and
upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal.  A low pressure
system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region
late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY
and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July
normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain.  A few showers may reach the lower to
mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more
humid in the W to NW flow aloft.  Another disturbance may pass south
of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  It is hard
to time disturbances in the fast flow.  Highs could reach the upper
80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over
the hills and mountains.

Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will move east of the region this
evening. High Pressure will ridge in from lower Great Lakes
Region tonight into Thursday.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPSF/KGFL between
07Z-11Z/THU. The mist/fog should burn off quickly by 12Z/Thu due
to decent mixing and the strong late June sun.

West to northwest winds at 5-10 KT will become light to calm
prior to midnight. Light west to northwest winds will pick up at
between 14Z-16Z/Thu at 5-10 kts, although may be occasionally
variable in direction at KGFL due to local topographical effects.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40
percent...

In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle
into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern
is expected for the long holiday weekend.

Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly
on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into
this evening with minimal impacts expected. Dry weather is then
expected tonight through Thursday night as high pressure builds
back into the region.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.
Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy rainfall.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...KL/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291924
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system moving from west to east across
the North Country this afternoon and evening will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours and small hail
will be possible with the stronger storms. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 221 PM EDT Wednesday...Slow-moving upper low with H5 vort
axis is continuing a slow progression across the Champlain Valley
at 18Z, and will translate east of the CT river valley around 00Z
this evening. Associated mid-level cold pool with 500mb temps
-15C to -16C contributing to low wbz heights (7-8kft) and surface-
based CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg ahead of main convective line
extending from eastern Franklin County VT swd across the VT side
of the Champlain Valley. Mid-level forcing ahead of 500mb trough
and sufficient instability will maintain line of showers and
thunderstorms ewd across central/ern VT through early this
evening. Main threat will be small hail and locally heavy
downpours. It appears that developing mesoscale cold pool will
maintain ewd progression of 10-15kts, and minimize duration of
heavy rainfall. May still see localized rainfall amounts 1 to
1.5", but generally below flash flood guidance values. Heavier
rainfall footprints yesterday were across portions of Orleans/
Caledonia/Essex counties, and can`t rule out some isold flooding
issues in that region late afternoon into early this evening.

Once mid-level trough axis moves to the east late this evening,
will see diminishing PoPs and gradual clearing from west to east,
especially after midnight. Given widespread rainfall last 24-48
hours, and light winds late as weak high pressure builds in from
the west, locally dense fog is anticipated across the typically
favored valleys of central/ern VT, and within the valleys of the
Adirondack region, mainly 05-11Z. Overnight lows generally low-mid
50s, except a few 40s in the nrn Adirondacks.

Weak ridge of high pressure in place surface and aloft on Thursday
with generally light winds and mostly sunny conditions. High temps
generally upr 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Weak ridging on Thursday will
continue into Thursday night, shifting east by Friday morning.
For Friday southerly gradient winds increase in advance of next
surface trough and vigorous 500 mb trough moving through the great
lakes. Rain begins Friday afternoon in the warm air advection
pattern and continues until a cold frontal passage Friday night.
Some ingredients present for heavy rainfall Friday and added it to
the forecast 18-24z Friday. 850 mb flow from the south at 20-30
knots will bring in low level moisture along/ahead of the
boundary. Model sounding shows tall skinny CAPE profile, with
relatively low CAPE value and saturated conditions. Warm cloud
depth just a little shy of the preferred 3km depth, and
Precipitable Water values near 1.4-1.5" are in the 75th
percentile. Playing down the severe threat now with surface max
temps forecast in the upper 70s to near 80 which would reduce
CAPE. 0-3 km shear less than 30kts, and highest shear values
coincide with the frontal passage later Friday and do not line up
well with the thermodynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest uplslope flow. As a result chance showers during daytime
heating Saturday, mainly across the northern portion of the area
closer to the upper low centered over Quebec. Cool through the
weekend until the upper low begins to pull away on Monday, with a
dry 3rd & 4th of July forecast.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and
PA on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
mvg eastward across the North Country this afternoon and early
this evening. Will see localized MVFR to IFR conditions with heavy
downpours, with small hail also possible in strongest convection.
Convective activity generally clears the region to the east after
01z Thursday. Aside from the tstm activity, winds are generally
light W-NW at 5-8kts, and will become light and variable tonight.
Expect to see patchy dense fog development tonight, especially for
MSS/MPV/SLK between 04-11Z. Generally VFR for the daylight hrs
Thursday with light westerly winds.

Outlook 18z thursday through Monday...

18z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK 06-12Z Friday morning.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

For Friday, heavy rainfall potential raises local flood concerns.
Factors arguing against flood threat is rainfall will be a quick
hit between 18z and 00z, and despite recent rainfall overall
antecedent conditions remain fairly dry. Biggest concern would be
for heavy rainers over small areas to produce flash flooding,
especially if rain falls over the isolated spots where we`ve had
rain in the past 24 hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Hanson

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291924
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system moving from west to east across
the North Country this afternoon and evening will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours and small hail
will be possible with the stronger storms. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 221 PM EDT Wednesday...Slow-moving upper low with H5 vort
axis is continuing a slow progression across the
00002D10
 Champlain Valley
at 18Z, and will translate east of the CT river valley around 00Z
this evening. Associated mid-level cold pool with 500mb temps
-15C to -16C contributing to low wbz heights (7-8kft) and surface-
based CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg ahead of main convective line
extending from eastern Franklin County VT swd across the VT side
of the Champlain Valley. Mid-level forcing ahead of 500mb trough
and sufficient instability will maintain line of showers and
thunderstorms ewd across central/ern VT through early this
evening. Main threat will be small hail and locally heavy
downpours. It appears that developing mesoscale cold pool will
maintain ewd progression of 10-15kts, and minimize duration of
heavy rainfall. May still see localized rainfall amounts 1 to
1.5", but generally below flash flood guidance values. Heavier
rainfall footprints yesterday were across portions of Orleans/
Caledonia/Essex counties, and can`t rule out some isold flooding
issues in that region late afternoon into early this evening.

Once mid-level trough axis moves to the east late this evening,
will see diminishing PoPs and gradual clearing from west to east,
especially after midnight. Given widespread rainfall last 24-48
hours, and light winds late as weak high pressure builds in from
the west, locally dense fog is anticipated across the typically
favored valleys of central/ern VT, and within the valleys of the
Adirondack region, mainly 05-11Z. Overnight lows generally low-mid
50s, except a few 40s in the nrn Adirondacks.

Weak ridge of high pressure in place surface and aloft on Thursday
with generally light winds and mostly sunny conditions. High temps
generally upr 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Weak ridging on Thursday will
continue into Thursday night, shifting east by Friday morning.
For Friday southerly gradient winds increase in advance of next
surface trough and vigorous 500 mb trough moving through the great
lakes. Rain begins Friday afternoon in the warm air advection
pattern and continues until a cold frontal passage Friday night.
Some ingredients present for heavy rainfall Friday and added it to
the forecast 18-24z Friday. 850 mb flow from the south at 20-30
knots will bring in low level moisture along/ahead of the
boundary. Model sounding shows tall skinny CAPE profile, with
relatively low CAPE value and saturated conditions. Warm cloud
depth just a little shy of the preferred 3km depth, and
Precipitable Water values near 1.4-1.5" are in the 75th
percentile. Playing down the severe threat now with surface max
temps forecast in the upper 70s to near 80 which would reduce
CAPE. 0-3 km shear less than 30kts, and highest shear values
coincide with the frontal passage later Friday and do not line up
well with the thermodynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest uplslope flow. As a result chance showers during daytime
heating Saturday, mainly across the northern portion of the area
closer to the upper low centered over Quebec. Cool through the
weekend until the upper low begins to pull away on Monday, with a
dry 3rd & 4th of July forecast.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and
PA on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
mvg eastward across the North Country this afternoon and early
this evening. Will see localized MVFR to IFR conditions with heavy
downpours, with small hail also possible in strongest convection.
Convective activity generally clears the region to the east after
01z Thursday. Aside from the tstm activity, winds are generally
light W-NW at 5-8kts, and will become light and variable tonight.
Expect to see patchy dense fog development tonight, especially for
MSS/MPV/SLK between 04-11Z. Generally VFR for the daylight hrs
Thursday with light westerly winds.

Outlook 18z thursday through Monday...

18z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK 06-12Z Friday morning.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

For Friday, heavy rainfall potential raises local flood concerns.
Factors arguing against flood threat is rainfall will be a quick
hit between 18z and 00z, and despite recent rainfall overall
antecedent conditions remain fairly dry. Biggest concern would be
for heavy rainers over small areas to produce flash flooding,
especially if rain falls over the isolated spots where we`ve had
rain in the past 24 hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Hanson

000
FXUS61 KALY 291900
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
300 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered showers
and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern is
expected for the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT...Local and regional radar scans show rather
small updrafts with showers along with an occasional lightning
activity. Most of these showers were into the terrain and as we
approach the early evening hours, we should begin to see a
diminishing trend with the loss of daytime heating as well as the
passage of this upper and surface troughs. Overnight, both surface
pressures and heights aloft rise with clearing skies and light
winds. This would also set the stage for some patchy fog.
Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with some upper 40s into the
Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should
result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and
winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around
H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for
valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain.

In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives
southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river
valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes
region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return
flow of increasing moisture.

The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95,
however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight
Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as
lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson
Valley).

An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper
trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced
lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing,
they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over
upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support
deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES
toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient
to support organized line elements with average values around
30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River
Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft
backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday
should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s
expected due to the cloud coverage increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure
building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and
continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday.  A low
pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic
States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm
early Tue into Wed.

Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of
NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and
sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region.  High
pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region
with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains.  Lows
both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.  Humidity levels will be
very comfortable for early July.

On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and
upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal.  A low pressure
system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region
late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY
and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July
normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain.  A few showers may reach the lower to
mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more
humid in the W to NW flow aloft.  Another disturbance may pass south
of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  It is hard
to time disturbances in the fast flow.  Highs could reach the upper
80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over
the hills and mountains.

Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An surface trough and an upper level disturbance will move across
the region this afternoon. High Pressure will ridge in from lower
Great Lakes Region tonight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will be mainly in place 
00004000
the rest of the afternoon
at KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU outside any shower or isolated thunderstorm
which may cause a brief lapse to MVFR CIGS/VSBYS especially at
KGFL/KPSF. These isold-sct showers should diminish by 22Z. The
skies will clear with the subsidence in the wake of the
trough...as the sfc anticyclone builds in.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
after midnight. The greatest threat for IFR or lower mist/fog and
stratus is at KGFL/KPSF between 07Z-12Z/THU. The mist/fog should
burn off quickly in the mid to late morning due to decent mixing
and the strong late June sun.

The winds will shift to west to northwest this afternoon at 7-12
kts with gusts around 18-20 kt at KALB. The winds will become
light to calm prior to midnight. Light northwest winds will pick
up at 12Z/THU at 4-8 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40
percent...

In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle
into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern
is expected for the long holiday weekend.

Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly
on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into
this evening with minimal impacts expected. Dry weather is then
expected tonight through Thursday night as high pressure builds
back into the region.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.
Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy rainfall.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 291900
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
300 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered showers
and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern is
expected for the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT...Local and regional radar scans show rather
small updrafts with showers along with an occasional lightning
activity. Most of these showers were into the terrain and as we
approach the early evening hours, we should begin to see a
diminishing trend with the loss of daytime heating as well as the
passage of this upper and surface troughs. Overnight, both surface
pressures and heights aloft rise with clearing skies and light
winds. This would also set the stage for some patchy fog.
Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with some upper 40s into the
Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should
result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and
winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around
H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for
valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain.

In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives
southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river
valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes
region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return
flow of increasing moisture.

The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95,
however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight
Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as
lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson
Valley).

An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper
trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced
lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing,
they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over
upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support
deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES
toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient
to support organized line elements with average values around
30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River
Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft
backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday
should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s
expected due to the cloud coverage increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure
building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and
continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday.  A low
pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic
States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm
early Tue into Wed.

Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of
NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and
sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region.  High
pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region
with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains.  Lows
both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.  Humidity levels will be
very comfortable for early July.

On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and
upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal.  A low pressure
system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region
late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY
and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July
normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain.  A few showers may reach the lower to
mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more
humid in the W to NW flow aloft.  Another disturbance may pass south
of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  It is hard
to time disturbances in the fast flow.  Highs could reach the upper
80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over
the hills and mountains.

Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An surface trough and an upper level disturbance will move across
the region this afternoon. High Pressure will ridge in from lower
Great Lakes Region tonight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will be mainly in place the rest of the afternoon
at KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU outside any shower or isolated thunderstorm
which may cause a brief lapse to MVFR CIGS/VSBYS especially at
KGFL/KPSF. These isold-sct showers should diminish by 22Z. The
skies will clear with the subsidence in the wake of the
trough...as the sfc anticyclone builds in.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
after midnight. The greatest threat for IFR or lower mist/fog and
stratus is at KGFL/KPSF between 07Z-12Z/THU. The mist/fog should
burn off quickly in the mid to late morning due to decent mixing
and the strong late June sun.

The winds will shift to west to northwest this afternoon at 7-12
kts with gusts around 18-20 kt at KALB. The winds will become
light to calm prior to midnight. Light northwest winds will pick
up at 12Z/THU at 4-8 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40
percent...

In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle
into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern
is expected for the long holiday weekend.

Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly
on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into
this evening with minimal impacts expected. Dry weather is then
expected tonight through Thursday night as high pressure builds
back into the region.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.
Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy rainfall.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291851
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system moving from west to east across
the North Country this afternoon and evening will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours and small hail
will be possible with the stronger storms. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 221 PM EDT Wednesday...Slow-moving upper low with H5 vort
axis is continuing a slow progression across the Champlain Valley
at 18Z, and will translate east of the CT river valley around 00Z
this evening. Associated mid-level cold pool with 500mb temps
-15C to -16C contributing to low wbz heights (7-8kft) and surface-
based CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg ahead of main convective line
extending from eastern Franklin County VT swd across the VT side
of the Champlain Valley. Mid-level forcing ahead of 500mb trough
and sufficient instability will maintain line of showers and
thunderstorms ewd across central/ern VT through early this
evening. Main threat will be small hail and locally heavy
downpours. It appears that developing mesoscale cold pool will
maintain ewd progression of 10-15kts, and minimize duration of
heavy rainfall. May still see localized rainfall amounts 1 to
1.5", but generally below flash flood guidance values. Heavier
rainfall footprints yesterday were across portions of Orleans/
Caledonia/Essex counties, and can`t rule out some isold flooding
issues in that region late afternoon into early this evening.

Once mid-level trough axis moves to the east late this evening,
will see diminishing PoPs and gradual clearing from west to east,
especially after midnight. Given widespread rainfall last 24-48
hours, and light winds late as weak high pressure builds in from
the west, locally dense fog is anticipated across the typically
favored valleys of central/ern VT, and within the valleys of the
Adirondack region, mainly 05-11Z. Overnight lows generally low-mid
50s, except a few 40s in the nrn Adirondacks.

Weak ridge of high pressure in place surface and aloft on Thursday
with generally light winds and mostly sunny conditions. High temps
generally upr 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build east from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
will remain over the region through early Friday, with fair and
dry weather expected. On Friday, models showing an upper trough
and a cold front swinging southeast across the Great Lakes. Models
also showing this upper trough will pull additional moisture
northward from the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. GFS model
showing deep layer shear of 35-40 knots in the 0-6km layer by
Friday afternoon, as well as most unstable cape values of
1500-2300 j/kg by late Friday afternoon. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Will hold
off on any enhanced wording for Friday at this time, and will let
later shifts reevaluate this. Shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into early Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will linger over the
region on Saturday, so will keep in a chance for showers. Could be
some residual showers on Sunday near the international border, but
most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. Models in good
agreement from Sunday night through Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region, with fair and dry weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
mvg eastward across the North Country this afternoon and early
this evening. Will see localized MVFR to IFR conditions with heavy
downpours, with small hail also possible in strongest convection.
Convective activity generally clears the region to the east after
01z Thursday. Aside from the tstm activity, winds are generally
light W-NW at 5-8kts, and will become light and variable tonight.
Expect to see patchy dense fog development tonight, especially for
MSS/MPV/SLK between 04-11Z. Generally VFR for the daylight hrs
Thursday with light westerly winds.

Outlook 18z thursday through Monday...

18z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK 06-12Z Friday morning.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass 
00004000
remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Banacos

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291805
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
205 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system moving from west to east across
the North Country this afternoon and evening will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours and small hail
will be possible with the stronger storms. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 149 PM EDT Wednesday...Slow-moving upper low with H5 vort
axis across the St. Lawrence Valley at 13z will progress slowly
ewd across the North Country today. Associated cold pool with
500mb temps -15C to -16C will contribute to low wbz heights
(7-8kft) and developing surface-based CAPE values of 500-1000
J/kg. Should see development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with peak daytime heating, and added in potential
for small hail into the Wx grids. In terms of hydrology, storms
will potentially be slow-moving (propagating vectors generally NE
5-10kts), and PW values remain 1.1 to 1.2" per RAP-based SPC
mesoanalysis. Better PW axis has shifted ewd into NH/ME. Can`t
rule out some isold hydro issues this aftn/eve with possible
localized flooding, especially in the existing heavier rainfall
footprints across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central into nern VT
from yesterday`s storms, but anticipated coverage of heavier
storms doesn`t warrant a flash flood watch attm. Will continue to
monitor. Looking at highs in the mid-upr 70s today, with dewpoints
in the low-mid 60s.

Cold front and its windshift clears the area early tonight with
high pressure ridging into the area. Should see strong radiational
cooling and dewpoints dropping once diurnal clouds/showers burn
off to clear skies. Given that many areas saw at least some rain
and with winds being so light, I`d expect there to be at least
some radiational fog in the prone river valleys. It may
potentially extend elsewhere, but for now I`ve included patchy fog
for just the river valleys tonight. Lows range from mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 50s in the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build east from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
will remain over the region through early Friday, with fair and
dry weather expected. On Friday, models showing an upper trough
and a cold front swinging southeast across the Great Lakes. Models
also showing this upper trough will pull additional moisture
northward from the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. GFS model
showing deep layer shear of 35-40 knots in the 0-6km layer by
Friday afternoon, as well as most unstable cape values of
1500-2300 j/kg by late Friday afternoon. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Will hold
off on any enhanced wording for Friday at this time, and will let
later shifts reevaluate this. Shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into early Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will linger over the
region on Saturday, so will keep in a chance for showers. Could be
some residual showers on Sunday near the international border, but
most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. Models in good
agreement from Sunday night through Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region, with fair and dry weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
mvg eastward across the North Country this afternoon and early
this evening. Will see localized MVFR to IFR conditions with heavy
downpours, with small hail also possible in strongest convection.
Convective activity generally clears the region to the east after
01z Thursday. Aside from the tstm activity, winds are generally
light W-NW at 5-8kts, and will become light and variable tonight.
Expect to see patchy dense fog development tonight, especially for
MSS/MPV/SLK between 04-11Z. Generally VFR for the daylight hrs
Thursday with light westerly winds.

Outlook 18z thursday through Monday...

18z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK 06-12Z Friday morning.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Banacos

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291805
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
205 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system moving from west to east across
the North Country this afternoon and evening will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours and small hail
will be possible with the stronger storms. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 149 PM EDT Wednesday...Slow-moving upper low with H5 vort
axis across the St. Lawrence Valley at 13z will progress slowly
ewd across the North Country today. Associated cold pool with
500mb temps -15C to -16C will contribute to low wbz heights
(7-8kft) and developing surface-based CAPE values of 500-1000
J/kg. Should see development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with peak daytime heating, and added in potential
for small hail into the Wx grids. In terms of hydrology, storms
will potentially be slow-moving (propagating vectors generally NE
5-10kts), and PW values remain 1.1 to 1.2" per RAP-based SPC
mesoanalysis. Better PW axis has shifted ewd into NH/ME. Can`t
rule out some isold hydro issues this aftn/eve with possible
localized flooding, especially in the existing heavier rainfall
footprints across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central into nern VT
from yesterday`s storms, but anticipated coverage of heavier
storms doesn`t warrant a flash flood watch attm. Will continue to
monitor. Looking at highs in the mid-upr 70s today, with dewpoints
in the low-mid 60s.

Cold front and its windshift clears the area early tonight with
high pressure ridging into the area. Should see strong radiational
cooling and dewpoints dropping once diurnal clouds/showers burn
off to clear skies. Given that many areas saw at least some rain
and with winds being so light, I`d expect there to be at least
some radiational fog in the prone river valleys. It may
potentially extend elsewhere, but for now I`ve included patchy fog
for just the river valleys tonight. Lows range from mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 50s in the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build east from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
will remain over the region through early Friday, with fair and
dry weather expected. On Friday, models showing an upper trough
and a cold front swinging southeast across the Great Lakes. Models
also showing this upper trough will pull additional moisture
northward from the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. GFS model
showing deep layer shear of 35-40 knots in the 0-6km layer by
Friday afternoon, as well as most unstable cape values of
1500-2300 j/kg by late Friday afternoon. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Will hold
off on any enhanced wording for Friday at this time, and will let
later shifts reevaluate this. Shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into early Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will linger over the
region on Saturday, so will keep in a chance for showers. Could be
some residual showers on Sunday near the international border, but
most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. Models in good
agreement from Sunday night through Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region, with fair and dry weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
mvg eastward across the North Country this afternoon and early
this evening. Will see localized MVFR to IFR conditions with heavy
downpours, with small hail also possible in strongest convection.
Convective activity generally clears the region to the east after
01z Thursday. Aside from the tstm activity, winds are generally
light W-NW at 5-8kts, and will become light and variable tonight.
Expect to see patchy dense fog development tonight, especially for
MSS/MPV/SLK between 04-11Z. Generally VFR for the daylight hrs
Thursday with light westerly winds.

Outlook 18z thursday through Monday...

18z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK 06-12Z Friday morning.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Banacos

000
FXUS61 KALY 291737
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
137 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across the region
this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure builds in tonight with fair weather expected through
Thursday night. A cold front will approach and cross the region
Friday and Friday accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms.
Fair weather is then expected for the rest of the long holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 100 PM EDT...Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
were underway across the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and
approaching the Schoharie Valley and Lake George regions. This was
along and ahead of a weak surface trough/secondary cold front just
downwind of Lake Ontario and upper impulse seen in the H2O vapor
imagery approaching. Most of this activity is diurnally driven and
terrain based as it should diminish in both coverage and intensity
toward 6 PM. Given the -15C at H500 and lowering wet bulb zero
heights with LAPS SBCAPES near 1000 J/KG, would not be surprised
to see/hear about small hail with the deeper convective elements.
Temperatures are likely within a couple degrees of our forecast
highs as no changes needed. Main update was to reflect current
trends and modify PoPs a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected tonight through Thursday night as higher
pressure builds in and the region is between short-wave troughs.
Thursday will feature seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 70s
to mid 70s and comfortable dew points in the 40s and 50s.

An upper level low is forecast to develop in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay as short-wave energy dives out of central
Canada. The short-wave will rotate about the base of low as the
low shifts southward toward the Great Lakes region Friday and
Friday night. Accompanying this feature will be a cold front which
will approach and cross our region. Dew points are forecast to
rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the cold front and
lapse rates to steepen to around 6.5 C/KM. CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/KG are anticipated. The Storm Prediction Center has the
forecast area in a Marginal outlook for severe weather Friday. At
this time have chances for convection mainly during the afternoon
and evening. Highs of around 5 degrees normal are forecast; in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the start of the long term period, a closed off upper level low
will be situated north of the region over Quebec on Saturday.  This
system will be slowly sliding eastward towards Newfoundland and
Labrador over the weekend.  With our region on the southern
periphery of this system, cyclonic flow could allow for a few brief
rain showers over the Adiro
0000041A
ndacks or southern VT (mainly for
Saturday when the system is closest to the area).  The remainder of
the region should be far enough away to stay dry.

The proximity of the closed low and lower heights/temps aloft will
allow temps to be a little on the cooler side for the weekend. Highs
look mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s (some upper 40s over the
central Adirondacks). The lower heights may help promote some clouds
from time to time, but daytime sky cover will still generally be
partly to mostly sunny.

By the Fourth of July (Monday), the upper low will be far enough
away and heights aloft will start to build over the area, as our
region becomes situated with the broad zonal flow on the poleward
side of a large ridge expanding across much of the CONUS. This will
allow a warming trend for next week, with temperatures reaching into
the mid 80s for most valley areas by Monday into Tuesday. Despite
the warming temps, humidity levels will remain tolerable, with
dewpoint temps still in the 50s. Overnight lows will start to creep
up 
00004000
in the upper 50s to mid 60s for early next week.

With the higher heights in place and surface high pressure not far
off to our east, it should remain dry across the region for Monday
into Tuesday.  The next chance for rainfall may be towards midweek,
as fast moving weak disturbances sliding within the zonal flow could
bring some showers or t-storms to the region at some point around
Wednesday or so.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An surface trough and an upper level disturbance will move across
the region this afternoon. High Pressure will ridge in from lower
Great Lakes Region tonight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will be mainly in place the rest of the afternoon
at KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU outside any shower or isolated thunderstorm
which may cause a brief lapse to MVFR CIGS/VSBYS especially at
KGFL/KPSF. These isold-sct showers should diminish by 22Z. The
skies will clear with the subsidence in the wake of the
trough...as the sfc anticyclone builds in.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
after midnight. The greatest threat for IFR or lower mist/fog and
stratus is at KGFL/KPSF between 07Z-12Z/THU. The mist/fog should
burn off quickly in the mid to late morning due to decent mixing
and the strong late June sun.

The winds will shift to west to northwest this afternoon at 7-12
kts with gusts around 18-20 kt at KALB. The winds will become
light to calm prior to midnight. Light northwest winds will pick
up at 12Z/THU at 4-8 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move slowly eastward across New England today as
a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight with
fair weather expected through Thursday night. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to be in the 30s Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly this afternoon. Dry weather is then expected tonight
through Thursday night as high pressure builds back in.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 291725
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
125 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across the region
this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure builds in tonight with fair weather expected through
Thursday night. A cold front will approach and cross the region
Friday and Friday accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms.
Fair weather is then expected for the rest of the long holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 100 PM EDT...Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
were underway across the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and
approaching the Schoharie Valley and Lake George regions. This was
along and ahead of a weak surface trough/secondary cold front just
downwind of Lake Ontario and upper impulse seen in the H2O vapor
imagery approaching. Most of this activity is diurnally driven and
terrain based as it should diminish in both coverage and intensity
toward 6 PM. Given the -15C at H500 and lowering wet bulb zero
heights with LAPS SBCAPES near 1000 J/KG, would not be surprised
to see/hear about small hail with the deeper convective elements.
Temperatures are likely within a couple degrees of our forecast
highs as no changes needed. Main update was to reflect current
trends and modify PoPs a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected tonight through Thursday night as higher
pressure builds in and the region is between short-wave troughs.
Thursday will feature seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 70s
to mid 70s and comfortable dew points in the 40s and 50s.

An upper level low is forecast to develop in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay as short-wave energy dives out of central
Canada. The short-wave will rotate about the base of low as the
low shifts southward toward the Great Lakes region Friday and
Friday night. Accompanying this feature will be a cold front which
will approach and cross our region. Dew points are forecast to
rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the cold front and
lapse rates to steepen to around 6.5 C/KM. CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/KG are anticipated. The Storm Prediction Center has the
forecast area in a Marginal outlook for severe weather Friday. At
this time have chances for convection mainly during the afternoon
and evening. Highs of around 5 degrees normal are forecast; in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the long term period, a closed off upper level low
will be situated north of the region over Quebec on Saturday.  This
system will be slowly sliding eastward towards Newfoundland and
Labrador over the weekend.  With our region on the southern
periphery of this system, cyclonic flow could allow for a few brief
rain showers over the Adirondacks or southern VT (mainly for
Saturday when the system is closest to the area).  The remainder of
the region should be far enough away to stay dry.

The proximity of the closed low and lower heights/temps aloft will
allow temps to be a little on the cooler side for the weekend. Highs
look mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s (some upper 40s over the
central Adirondacks). The lower heights may help promote some clouds
from time to time, but daytime sky cover will still generally be
partly to mostly sunny.

By the Fourth of July (Monday), the upper low will be far enough
away and heights aloft will start to build over the area, as our
region becomes situated with the broad zonal flow on the poleward
side of a large ridge expanding across much of the CONUS. This will
allow a warming trend for next week, with temperatures reaching into
the mid 80s for most valley areas by Monday into Tuesday. Despite
the warming temps, humidity levels will remain tolerable, with
dewpoint temps still in the 50s. Overnight lows will start to creep
up in the upper 50s to mid 60s for early next week.

With the higher heights in place and surface high pressure not far
off to our east, it should remain dry across the region for Monday
into Tuesday.  The next chance for rainfall may be towards midweek,
as fast moving weak disturbances sliding within the zonal flow could
bring some showers or t-storms to the region at some point around
Wednesday or so.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any lingering low clouds or mist will dissipate early this morning,
allowing for VFR conditions to return for the entire day today with
just sct to bkn cigs at 4-8 kft.  With the upper level trough moving
over the region, a rain shower is possible this aftn for all sites,
but any shower will be brief and light. Will just address with a
VCSH for now due to low impact and sparse expected coverage. West
winds will be around 5-10 kts by this afternoon.

Winds should diminish for this evening and any lingering clouds will
also start to decrease as the upper level trough starts to move
away. A period of fog or mist may be possible again for late
tonight, mainly for KPSF/KGFL, with conditions lowering as low as
IFR for a few hours prior to sunrise Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move slowly eastward across New England today as
a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight with
fair weather expected through Thursday night. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to be in the 30s Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly this afternoon. Dry weather is then expected tonight
through Thursday night as high pressure builds back in.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 291435
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1035 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across the region
this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure builds in tonight with fair weather expected through
Thursday night. A cold front will approach and cross the region
Friday and Friday accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms.
Fair weather is then expected for the rest of the long holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
as of 1035 EDT...A sfc trough/secondary front continues to move
eastward across the region today. An upper level disturbance and
this secondary boundary will be the focus for isold-sct showers
and isold thunderstorms. The showers will be most numerous north
and west of the Tri Cities. The latest MUCAPES are mainly 500 J/kg
or less over the fcst area based on the RAP Analysis. The threat
of any strong to severe storms will be to our east in the moister
and more unstable air mass ahead of the boundary and trough.

Temperatures today will be a couple/few degrees cooler than
yesterday and dew points will be lower in the wake of the front
into the 50s and lower 60s. Highs will mainly be in 70s with
upper 60s across the highest terrain and lower 80s in the mid
Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected tonight through Thursday night as higher
pressure builds in and the region is between short-wave troughs.
Thursday will feature seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 70s
to mid 70s and comfortable dew points in the 40s and 50s.

An upper level low is forecast to develop in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay as short-wave energy dives out of central
Canada. The short-wave will rotate about the base of low as the
low shifts southward toward the Great Lakes region Friday and
Friday night. Accompanying this feature will be a cold front which
will approach and cross our region. Dew points are forecast to
rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the cold front and
lapse rates to steepen to around 6.5 C/KM. CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/KG are anticipated. The Storm Prediction Center has the
forecast area in a Marginal outlook for severe weather Friday. At
this time have chances for convection mainly during the afternoon
and evening. Highs of around 5 degrees normal are forecast; in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the start of the long term period, a closed off upper level low
will be situated north of the region over Quebec on Saturday.  This
system will be slowly sliding eastward towards Newfoundland and
Labrador over the weekend.  With our region on the southern
periphery of this system, cyclonic flow could allow for a few brief
rain showers over the Adirondacks or southern VT (mainly for
Saturday when the system is closest to the area).  The remainder of
the region should be far enough away to stay dry.

The proximity of the closed low and lower heights/temps aloft will
allow temps to be a little on the cooler side for the weekend. Highs
look mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s (some upper 40s over the
central Adirondacks). The lower heights may help promote some clouds
from time to time, but daytime sky cover will still generally be
partly to mostly sunny.

By the Fourth of July (Monday), the upper low will be far enough
away and heights aloft will start to build over the area, as our
region becomes situated with the broad zonal flow on the poleward
side of a large ridge expanding across much of the CONUS. This will
allow a warming trend for next week, with temperatures reaching into
the mid 80s for most valley areas by Monday into Tuesday. Despite
the warming temps, humidity levels will remain tolerable, with
dewpoint temps still in the 50s. Overnight lows will start to creep
up in the upper 50s to mid 60s for early next week.

With the higher heights in place and surface high pressure not far
off to our east, it should remain dry across the region for Monday
into Tuesday.  The next chance for rainfall may be towards midweek,
as fast moving weak disturbances sliding within the zonal flow could
bring some showers or t-storms to the region at some point around
Wednesday or so.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any lingering low clouds or mist will dissipate early this morning,
allowing for VFR conditions to return for the entire day today with
just sct to bkn cigs at 4-8 kft.  With the upper level trough moving
over the region, a rain shower is possible this aftn for all sites,
but any shower will be brief and light. Will just address with a
VCSH for now due to low impact and sparse expected coverage. West
winds will be around 5-10 kts by this afternoon.

Winds should diminish for this evening and any lingering clouds will
also start to decrease as the upper level trough starts to move
away. A period of fog or mist may be possible again for late
tonight, mainly for KPSF/KGFL, with conditions lowering as low as
IFR for a few hours prior to sunrise Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move slowly eastward across New England today as
a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight with
fair weather expected through Thursday night. Minimum relative
humidity values 
00004000
are forecast to be in the 30s Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly this afternoon. Dry weather is then expected tonight
through Thursday night as high pressure builds back in.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/Wasula
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291404
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1004 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers across eastern Vermont dissipate early this
morning. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy day with scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with showers dissipating by
sunset. Mostly sunny skies anticipated for Thursday. The next
period of more active weather is on Friday with a cold frontal
passage triggering showers and thunderstorms. Some may become
strong on Friday. The Independence Day weekend outlook looks
favorable for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 948 AM EDT Wednesday...Slow-moving upper low with H5 vort
axis across the St. Lawrence Valley at 13z will progress slowly
ewd across the North Country today. Associated cold pool with
500mb temps -15C to -16C will contribute to low wbz heights
(7-8kft) and developing surface-based CAPE values of 500-1000
J/kg. Should see development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with peak daytime heating, and added in potential
for small hail into the Wx grids. In terms of hydrology, storms
will potentially be slow-moving (propagating vectors generally NE
5-10kts), and PW values remain 1.1 to 1.2" per RAP-based SPC
mesoanalysis. Better PW axis has shifted ewd into NH/ME. Can`t
rule out some isold hydro issues this aftn/eve, especially in the
existing heavier rainfall footprints across the nrn Adirondacks
and n-central into nern VT from yesterday`s storms, but
anticipated coverage of heavier storms doesn`t warrant a watch
attm. Will continue to monitor. Looking at highs in the mid-upr
70s today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s.

Cold front and its windshift clears the area early tonight with
high pressure ridging into the area. Should see strong radiational
cooling and dewpoints dropping once diurnal clouds/showers burn
off to clear skies. Given that many areas saw at least some rain
and with winds being so light, I`d expect there to be at least
some radiational fog in the prone river valleys. It may
potentially extend elsewhere, but for now I`ve included patchy fog
for just the river valleys tonight. Lows range from mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 50s in the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build east from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
will remain over the region through early Friday, with fair and
dry weather expected. On Friday, models showing an upper trough
and a cold front swinging southeast across the Great Lakes. Models
also showing this upper trough will pull additional moisture
northward from the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. GFS model
showing deep layer shear of 35-40 knots in the 0-6km layer by
Friday afternoon, as well as most unstable cape values of
1500-2300 j/kg by late Friday afternoon. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Will hold
off on any enhanced wording for Friday at this time, and will let
later shifts reevaluate this. Shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into early Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will linger over the
region on Saturday, so will keep in a chance for showers. Could be
some residual showers on Sunday near the international border, but
most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. Models in good
agreement from Sunday night through Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region, with fair and dry weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Generally MVFR to IFR ceilings or
visibilities across the TAFs, but trend will be for improvement
through the morning. Skies will fill back in with BKN VFR cumulus
with scattered afternoon showers/storms. Kept as VCSH for now due
to uncertainty in specific timing at airports. Clearing into the
evening with likely LIFR fog at MPV and SLK. Winds light westerly
at or under 5 kts.

Note: added AMD NOT SKED at SLK due to the power hit at Saranac
Lake which has resulted in obs not transmitting.

Outlook 12z thursday through Sunday...

12z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with LIFR radiational fog
likely at MPV and SLK Thursday night.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

12z Saturday through 00z Sunday...Generally VFR, but brief
VFR/MVFR showers possible at PBG, BTV and MPV as upper trough
passes.

00z Sunday onward...VFR under high pressure. Possible evening LIFR
fog with the best chance at SLK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Anticipate scattered shower and thunderstorm development this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow- moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Have seen 0.45" in past 1.5 hrs at MSS with slow-moving
shower activity since 12Z, and should see tstm potential after
17Z as PBL destabilizes and SBCAPE values reach 500-1000 J/KG. PW
values are a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash
flood guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some
localized flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly
across the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans and Caledonia counties in VT). Will monitor
convective and radar trends through the afternoon and evening
hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Banacos

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291404
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1004 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers across eastern Vermont dissipate early this
morning. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy day with scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with showers dissipating by
sunset. Mostly sunny skies anticipated for Thursday. The next
period of more active weather is on Friday with a cold frontal
passage triggering showers and thunderstorms. Some may become
strong on Friday. The Independence Day weekend outlook looks
favorable for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 948 AM EDT Wednesday...Slow-moving upper low with H5 vort
axis across the St. Lawrence Valley at 13z will progress slowly
ewd across the North Country today. Associated cold pool with
500mb temps -15C to -16C will contribute to low wbz heights
(7-8kft) and developing surface-based CAPE values of 500-1000
J/kg. Should see development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with peak daytime heating, and added in potential
for small hail into the Wx grids. In terms of hydrology, storms
will potentially be slow-moving (propagating vectors generally NE
5-10kts), and PW values remain 1.1 to 1.2" per RAP-based SPC
mesoanalysis. Better PW axis has shifted ewd into NH/ME. Can`t
rule out some isold hydro issues this aftn/eve, especially in the
existing heavier rainfall footprints across the nrn Adirondacks
and n-central into nern VT from yesterday`s storms, but
anticipated coverage of heavier storms doesn`t warrant a watch
attm. Will continue to monitor. Looking at highs in the mid-upr
70s today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s.

Cold front and its windshift clears the area early tonight with
high pressure ridging into the area. Should see strong radiational
cooling and dewpoints dropping once diurnal clouds/showers burn
off to clear skies. Given that many areas saw at least some rain
and with winds being so light, I`d expect there to be at least
some radiational fog in the prone river valleys. It may
potentially extend elsewhere, but for now I`ve included patchy fog
for just the river valleys tonight. Lows range from mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 50s in the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build east from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
will remain over the region through early Friday, with fair and
dry weather expected. On Friday, models showing an upper trough
and a cold front swinging southeast across the Great Lakes. Models
also showing this upper trough will pull additional moisture
northward from the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. GFS model
showing deep layer shear of 35-40 knots in the 0-6km layer by
Friday afternoon, as well as most unstable cape values of
1500-2300 j/kg by late Friday afternoon. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Will hold
off on any enhanced wording for Friday at this time, and will let
later shifts reevaluate this. Shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into early Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will linger over the
region on Saturday, so will keep in a chance for showers. Could be
some residual showers on Sunday near the international border, but
most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. Models in good
agreement from Sunday night through Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region, with fair and dry weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Generally MVFR to IFR ceilings or
visibilities across the TAFs, but trend will be for improvement
through the morning. Skies will fill back in with BKN VFR cumulus
with scattered afternoon showers/storms. Kept as VCSH for now due
to uncertainty in specific timing at airports. Clearing into the
evening with likely LIFR fog at MPV and SLK. Winds light westerly
at or under 5 kts.

Note: added AMD NOT SKED at SLK due to the power hit at Saranac
Lake which has resulted in obs not transmitting.

Outlook 12z thursday through Sunday...

12z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with LIFR radiational fog
likely at MPV and SLK Thursday night.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

12z Saturday through 00z Sunday...Generally VFR, but brief
VFR/MVFR showers possible at PBG, BTV and MPV as upper trough
passes.

00z Sunday onward...VFR under high pressure. Possible evening LIFR
fog with the best chance at SLK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Anticipate scattered shower and thunderstorm development this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow- moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Have seen 0.45" in past 1.5 hrs at MSS with slow-moving
shower activity since 12Z, and should see tstm potential after
17Z as PBL destabilizes and SBCAPE values reach 500-1000 J/KG. PW
values are a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash
flood guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some
localized flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly
across the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans and Caledonia counties in VT). Will monitor
convective and radar trends through the afternoon and evening
hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Banacos

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291141
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
741 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers across eastern Vermont dissipate early this
morning. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy day with scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with showers dissipating by
sunset. Mostly sunny skies anticipated for Thursday. The next
period of more active weather is on Friday with a cold frontal
passage triggering showers and thunderstorms. Some may become
strong on Friday. The Independence Day weekend outlook looks
favorable for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 741 AM EDT Tuesday...For this update I added some slight to
low chance PoPs in St. Lawrence County as radar is indicating some
showers from OGS south. Likewise, I removed mention of showers
through mid-late morning across eastern VT as earlier showers have
advanced into NH. Otherwise, forecast appears to be in good shape
with no other changes.

Previous discussion...

After yesterday`s period of more active weather, we are still
contending with some leftover lower clouds and light showers
across eastern VT on the warm side of a cold front. These
lingering showers should be coming to an end into the morning
commute, but the lower overcast likely will be harder to shake
free of, likely not until mid to late morning. Elsewhere, skies
are generally partly to mostly cloudy. Expect that most everywhere
should see at least some peeks or breaks of sun by the afternoon.
Any breaks should fill back in with cumulus clouds though, as we
are still under the influence of an upper trough that will shift
its way across our area this afternoon. There should be enough
daytime heating to generate at least isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. This activity will be solely
driven by diurnal heating and lift along terrain. Instability
values are lower than yesterday - between 650 J/kg on the GFS to
1200 J/kg on the bullish NAM, and deep shear is even weaker as
well around 15 to 20 knots. However, think a few stronger cells
might be capable of producing some small hail given that wet- bulb
zero heights are around 8000-10000 ft. So opted for afternoon
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with PoPs in the
20-40% range, but declined on any enhanced wording for small hail
as the coverage should be limited. I did mention in the HWO,
however. Think eastern and northeast VT stands the best shot at
seeing any thunderstorms today as moisture levels/dewpoints are
highest there. Looking at highs today in the 70s.

Cold front and its windshift clears the area early tonight with
high pressure ridging into the area. Should see strong radiational
cooling and dewpoints dropping once diurnal clouds/showers burn
off to clear skies. Given that many areas saw at least some rain
and with winds being so light, I`d expect there to be at least
some radiational fog in the prone river valleys. It may
potentially extend elsewhere, but for now I`ve included patchy fog
for just the river valleys tonight. Lows range from mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 50s in the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build east from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
will remain over the region through early Friday, with fair and
dry weather
0000140C
 expected. On Friday, models showing an upper trough
and a cold front swinging southeast across the Great Lakes. Models
also showing this upper trough will pull additional moisture
northward from the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. GFS model
showing deep layer shear of 35-40 knots in the 0-6km layer by
Friday afternoon, as well as most unstable cape values of
1500-2300 j/kg by late Friday afternoon. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Will hold
off on any enhanced wording for Friday at this time, and will let
later shifts reevaluate this. Shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into early Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will linger over the
region on Saturday, so will keep in a chance for showers. Could be
some residual showers on Sunday near the international border, but
most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. Models in good
agreement from Sunday night through Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region, with fair and dry weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Generally MVFR to IFR ceilings or
visibilities across the TAFs, but trend will be for improvement
through the morning. Skies will fill back in with BKN VFR cumulus
with scattered afternoon showers/storms. Kept as VCSH for now due
to uncertainty in specific timing at airports. Clearing into the
evening with likely LIFR fog at MPV and SLK. Winds light westerly
at or under 5 kts.

Note: added AMD NOT SKED at SLK due to the power hit at Saranac
Lake which has resulted in obs not transmitting.

Outlook 12z thursday through Sunday...

12z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with LIFR radiational fog
likely at MPV and SLK Thursday night.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

12z Saturday through 00z Sunday...Generally VFR, but brief
VFR/MVFR showers possible at PBG, BTV and MPV as upper trough
passes.

00z Sunday onward...VFR under high pressure. Possible evening LIFR
fog with the best chance at SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KALY 291046
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
646 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly eastward across New England today as
a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight with
fair weather expected through Thursday night. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday and Friday accompanied by
some showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is then expected for
the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will continue to move gradually eastward crossing
New England today. The front has finally east of the forecast
area. This boundary will be the focus for convection to our east
today. However aloft, a short-wave trough will move over the
region and is expected to become negatively tilted as it crosses
New England later in the day. Isolated to scattered convection is
expected to develop across the local area as the short-wave passes
overhead during the peak heating of the day. The threat of any
strong to severe storms will be to our east in the moister and
more unstable air ahead of the cold front.

Temperatures today will be a couple/few degrees cooler than
yesterday and dew points will be lower in the wake of the cold
front. Forecasting highs mainly in 70s with upper 60s across the
highest terrain and lower 80s in the mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected tonight through Thursday night as higher
pressure builds in and the region is between short-wave troughs.
Thursday will feature seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 70s
to mid 70s and comfortable dew points in the 40s and 50s.

An upper level low is forecast to develop in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay as short-wave energy dives out of central
Canada. The short-wave will rotate about the base of low as the
low shifts southward toward the Great Lakes region Friday and
Friday night. Accompanying this feature will be a cold front which
will approach and cross our region. Dew points are forecast to
rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the cold front and
lapse rates to steepen to around 6.5 C/KM. CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/KG are anticipated. The Storm Prediction Center has the
forecast area in a Marginal outlook for severe weather Friday. At
this time have chances for convection mainly during the afternoon
and evening. Highs of around 5 degrees normal are forecast; in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the start of the long term period, a closed off upper level low
will be situated north of the region over Quebec on S
00004000
aturday.  This
system will be slowly sliding eastward towards Newfoundland and
Labrador over the weekend.  With our region on the southern
periphery of this system, cyclonic flow could allow for a few brief
rain showers over the Adirondacks or southern VT (mainly for
Saturday when the system is closest to the area).  The remainder of
the region should be far enough away to stay dry.

The proximity of the closed low and lower heights/temps aloft will
allow temps to be a little on the cooler side for the weekend. Highs
look mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s (some upper 40s over the
central Adirondacks). The lower heights may help promote some clouds
from time to time, but daytime sky cover will still generally be
partly to mostly sunny.

By the Fourth of July (Monday), the upper low will be far enough
away and heights aloft will start to build over the area, as our
region becomes situated with the broad zonal flow on the poleward
side of a large ridge expanding across much of the CONUS. This will
allow a warming trend for next week, with temperatures reaching into
the mid 80s for most valley areas by Monday into Tuesday. Despite
the warming temps, humidity levels will remain tolerable, with
dewpoint temps still in the 50s. Overnight lows will start to creep
up in the upper 50s to mid 60s for early next week.

With the higher heights in place and surface high pressure not far
off to our east, it should remain dry across the region for Monday
into Tuesday.  The next chance for rainfall may be towards midweek,
as fast moving weak disturbances sliding within the zonal flow could
bring some showers or t-storms to the region at some point around
Wednesday or so.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any lingering low clouds or mist will dissipate early this morning,
allowing for VFR conditions to return for the entire day today with
just sct to bkn cigs at 4-8 kft.  With the upper level trough moving
over the region, a rain shower is possible this aftn for all sites,
but any shower will be brief and light. Will just address with a
VCSH for now due to low impact and sparse expected coverage. West
winds will be around 5-10 kts by this afternoon.

Winds should diminish for this evening and any lingering clouds will
also start to decrease as the upper level trough starts to move
away. A period of fog or mist may be possible again for late
tonight, mainly for KPSF/KGFL, with conditions lowering as low as
IFR for a few hours prior to sunrise Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move slowly eastward across New England today as
a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight with
fair weather expected through Thursday night. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to be in the 30s Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly this afternoon. Dry weather is then expected tonight
through Thursday night as high pressure builds back in.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 290850
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
450 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly eastward across New England today as
a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight with
fair weather expected through Thursday night. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday and Friday accompanied by
some showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is then expected for
the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will continue to move gradually eastward crossing
New England today. The front has finally moved out of western New
England (the forecast area). This boundary will be the focus for
convection to our east today. However aloft, a short-wave trough
will move over the region and is expected to become negatively
tilted as it crosses New England later in the day. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop across the local area
as the short-wave passes overhead during the peak heating of the
day. The threat of any strong to severe storms will be to our east
in the moister and more unstable air ahead of the cold front.

Temperatures today will be a couple/few degrees cooler than
yesterday and dew points will be lower in the wake of the cold
front. Forecasting highs mainly in 70s with upper 60s across the
highest terrain and lower 80s in the mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected tonight through Thursday night as higher
pressure builds in and the region is between short-wave troughs.
Thursday will feature seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 70s
to mid 70s and comfortable dew points in the 40s and 50s.

An upper level low is forecast to develop in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay as short-wave energy dives out of central
Canada. The short-wave will rotate about the base of low as the
low shifts southward toward the Great Lakes region Friday and
Friday night. Accompanying this feature will be a cold front which
will approach and cross our region. Dew points are forecast to
rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the cold front and
lapse rates to steepen to around 6.5 C/KM. CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/KG are anticipated. The Storm Prediction Center has the
forecast area in a Marginal outlook for severe weather Friday. At
this time have chances for convection mainly during the afternoon
and evening. Highs of around 5 degrees normal are forecast; in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the start of the long term period, a closed off upper level low
will be situated north of the region over Quebec on Saturday.  This
system will be slowly sliding eastward towards Newfoundland and
Labrador over the weekend.  With our region on the southern
periphery of this system, cyclonic flow could allow for a few brief
rain showers over the Adirondacks or southern VT (mainly for
Saturday when the system is closest to the area).  The remainder of
the region should be far enough away to stay dry.

The proximity of the closed low and lower heights/temps aloft will
allow temps to be a little on the cooler side for the weekend. Highs
look mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s (some upper 40s over the
central Adirondacks). The lower heights may help promote some clouds
from time to time, but daytime sky cover will still generally be
partly to mostly sunny.

By the Fourth of July (Monday), the upper low will be far enough
away and heights aloft will start to build over the area, as our
region becomes situated with the broad zonal flow on the poleward
side of a large ridge expanding across much of the CONUS. This will
allow a warming trend for next week, with temperatures reaching into
the mid 80s for most valley areas by Monday into Tuesday. Despite
the warming temps, humidity levels will remain tolerable, with
dewpoint temps still in the 50s. Overnight lows will start to creep
up in the upper 50s to mid 60s for early next week.

With the higher heights in place and surface high pressure not far
off to our east, it should remain dry across the region for Monday
into Tuesday.  The next chance for rainfall may be towards midweek,
as fast moving weak disturbances sliding within the zonal flow could
bring some showers or t-storms to the region at some point around
Wednesday or so.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As a cold front continues to move across the region, showers and
thunderstorms are tapering off and heading eastward.  There still
may be a lingering shower in spots over the next hour or two, but
the bulk of the convection is now done.  However, lingering low
level moisture due to the rainfall will allow for IFR or LIFR
cigs/vsbys due to fog/low stratus for the remainder of the overnight
hours.  It may take an hour or two for the fog to develop, but with
calm winds and the ample low level moisture present, it certainly
looks to occur for all terminals.

After sunrise, the fog/low clouds should start to dissipate and
looks to be done completely between 7 and 8 am. This will allow for
VFR conditions to return for the day on Wednesday with just sct to
bkn cigs at 4-8 kft.  With the upper level trough moving over the
region, a rain shower is possible on Wed aftn for all sites, but any
shower will be brief and light. Will just address with a VCSH for
now due to low impact and sparse expected coverage. West winds will
be around 5-10 kts by Wednesday afternoon.

Winds should diminish for Wednesday evening and any lingering clouds
will also start to decrease.  A  period of fog or mist may be
possible again for late Wed night into Thursday morning for some
sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move slowly eastward across New England today as
a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight with
fair weather expected through Thursday night. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to be in the 30s Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly this afternoon. Dry weather is then expected tonight
through Thursday night as high pressure builds back in.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 290850
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
450 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly eastward across New England today as
a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight with
fair weather expected through Thursday night. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday and Friday accompanied by
some showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is then expected for
the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will continue to move gradually eastward crossing
New England today. The front has finally moved out of western New
England (the forecast area). This boundary will be the focus for
convection to our east today. However aloft, a short-wave trough
will move over the region and is expected to become negatively
tilted as it crosses New England later in the day. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop across the local area
as the short-wave passes overhead during the peak heating of the
day. The threat of any strong to severe storms will be to our east
in the moister and more unstable air ahead of the cold front.

Temperatures today will be a couple/few degrees cooler than
yesterday and dew points will be lower in the wake of the cold
front. Forecasting highs mainly in 70s with upper 60s across the
highest terrain and lower 80s in the mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected tonight through Thursday night as higher
pressure builds in and the region is between short-wave troughs.
Thursday will feature seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 70s
to mid 70s and comfortable dew points in the 40s and 50s.

An upper level low is forecast to develop in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay as short-wave energy dives out of central
Canada. The short-wave will rotate about the base of low as the
low shifts southward toward the Great Lakes region Friday and
Friday night. Accompanying this feature will be a cold front which
will approach and cross our region. Dew points are forecast to
rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the cold front and
lapse rates to steepen to around 6.5 C/KM. CAPE values of 1000 to
2000 J/KG are anticipated. The Storm Prediction Center has the
forecast area in a Marginal outlook for severe weather Friday. At
this time have chances for convection mainly during the afternoon
and evening. Highs of around 5 degrees normal are forecast; in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the start of the long term period, a closed off upper level low
will be situated north of the region over Quebec on Saturday.  This
system will be slowly sliding eastward towards Newfoundland and
Labrador over the weekend.  With our region on the southern
periphery of this system, cyclonic flow could allow for a few brief
rain showers over the Adirondacks or southern VT (mainly for
Saturday when the system is closest to the area).  The remainder of
the region should be far enough away to stay dry.

The proximity of the closed low and lower heights/temps aloft will
allow temps to be a little on the cooler side for the weekend. Highs
look mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s (some upper 40s over the
central Adirondacks). The lower heights may help promote some clouds
from time to time, but daytime sky cover will still generally be
partly to mostly sunny.

By the Fourth of July (Monday), the upper low will be far enough
away and heights aloft will start to build over the area, as our
region becomes situated with the broad zonal flow on the poleward
side of a large ridge expanding across much of the CONUS. This will
allow a warming trend for next week, with temperatures reaching into
the mid 80s for most valley areas by Monday into Tuesday. Despite
the warming temps, humidity levels will remain tolerable, with
dewpoint temps still in the 50s. Ove
00004000
rnight lows will start to creep
up in the upper 50s to mid 60s for early next week.

With the higher heights in place and surface high pressure not far
off to our east, it should remain dry across the region for Monday
into Tuesday.  The next chance for rainfall may be towards midweek,
as fast moving weak disturbances sliding within the zonal flow could
bring some showers or t-storms to the region at some point around
Wednesday or so.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As a cold front continues to move across the region, showers and
thunderstorms are tapering off and heading eastward.  There still
may be a lingering shower in spots over the next hour or two, but
the bulk of the convection is now done.  However, lingering low
level moisture due to the rainfall will allow for IFR or LIFR
cigs/vsbys due to fog/low stratus for the remainder of the overnight
hours.  It may take an hour or two for the fog to develop, but with
calm winds and the ample low level moisture present, it certainly
looks to occur for all terminals.

After sunrise, the fog/low clouds should start to dissipate and
looks to be done completely between 7 and 8 am. This will allow for
VFR conditions to return for the day on Wednesday with just sct to
bkn cigs at 4-8 kft.  With the upper level trough moving over the
region, a rain shower is possible on Wed aftn for all sites, but any
shower will be brief and light. Will just address with a VCSH for
now due to low impact and sparse expected coverage. West winds will
be around 5-10 kts by Wednesday afternoon.

Winds should diminish for Wednesday evening and any lingering clouds
will also start to decrease.  A  period of fog or mist may be
possible again for late Wed night into Thursday morning for some
sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move slowly eastward across New England today as
a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves over the
region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight with
fair weather expected through Thursday night. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to be in the 30s Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly this afternoon. Dry weather is then expected tonight
through Thursday night as high pressure builds back in.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290836
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
436 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers across eastern Vermont dissipate early this
morning. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy day with scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with showers dissipating by
sunset. Mostly sunny skies anticipated for Thursday. The next
period of more active weather is on Friday with a cold frontal
passage triggering showers and thunderstorms. Some may become
strong on Friday. The Independence Day weekend outlook looks
favorable for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 435 AM EDT Tuesday...After yesterday`s period of more
active weather, we are still contending with some leftover lower
clouds and light showers across eastern VT on the warm side of a
cold front. These lingering showers should be coming to an end
into the morning commute, but the lower overcast likely will be
harder to shake free of, likely not until mid to late morning.
Elsewhere, skies are generally partly to mostly cloudy. Expect
that most everywhere should see at least some peeks or breaks of
sun by the afternoon. Any breaks should fill back in with cumulus
clouds though, as we are still under the influence of an upper
trough that will shift its way across our area this afternoon.
There should be enough daytime heating to generate at least
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
This activity will be solely driven by diurnal heating and lift
along terrain. Instability values are lower than yesterday -
between 650 J/kg on the GFS to 1200 J/kg on the bullish NAM, and
deep shear is even weaker as well around 15 to 20 knots. However,
think a few stronger cells might be capable of producing some
small hail given that wet- bulb zero heights are around 8000-10000
ft. So opted for afternoon scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms with PoPs in the 20-40% range, but declined on any
enhanced wording for small hail as the coverage should be limited.
I did mention in the HWO, however. Think eastern and northeast VT
stands the best shot at seeing any thunderstorms today as moisture
levels/dewpoints are highest there. Looking at highs today in the
70s.

Cold front and its windshift clears the area early tonight with
high pressure ridging into the area. Should see strong radiational
cooling and dewpoints dropping once diurnal clouds/showers burn
off to clear skies. Given that many areas saw at least some rain
and with winds being so light, I`d expect there to be at least
some radiational fog in the prone river valleys. It may
potentially extend elsewhere, but for now I`ve included patchy fog
for just the river valleys tonight. Lows range from mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 50s in the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build east from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
will remain over the region through early Friday, with fair and
dry weather expected. On Friday, models showing an upper trough
and a cold front swinging southeast across the Great Lakes. Models
also showing this upper trough will pull additional moisture
northward from the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. GFS model
showing deep layer shear of 35-40 knots in the 0-6km layer by
Friday afternoon, as well as most unstable cape values of
1500-2300 j/kg by late Friday afternoon. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Will hold
off on any enhanced wording for Friday at this time, and will let
later shifts reevaluate this. Shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into early Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will linger over the
region on Saturday, so will keep in a chance for showers. Could be
some residual showers on Sunday near the international border, but
most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. Models in good
agreement from Sunday night through Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region, with fair and dry weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mix of flight categories from VFR to LIFR
across the airports due to leftover showers across eastern VT and
developing mist or light fog with the saturated conditions.
Still some lightning being reported near VSF and LEB but should
remain distant from RUT and MPV. Expect changeable flight
category conditions to continue through at least 11z. As showers
clear expect some areas of 1 to 2 SM mist/fog to set up and this
has already occurred at BTV and MSS and likely also the case at
SLK. Winds through 12z will be light and variable.

General improving conditions to VFR early Wednesday morning. As
skies clear and stronger diurnal heating begins, expect there to
be some scattered showers/possible thunderstorms. Could see brief
MVFR cig and MVFR/IFR visby reductions in any thunderstorms.
Coverage and start time remain unclear so I`ve treated as VCSH
for now with hopefully more clarity by the 12z TAF issuance. This
activity is diurnally driven and should end by sunset. Winds
generally light northwesterly under 5 kts.

Outlook 06z thursday through Sunday...

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with LIFR radiational fog
likely at MPV and SLK Thursday night.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

12z Saturday through 00z Sunday...Generally VFR, but brief
VFR/MVFR showers possible at PBG, BTV and MPV as upper trough
passes.

00z Sunday onward...VFR under high pressure. Possible evening LIFR
fog with the best chance at SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290803
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
403 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end overnight.
Scattered showers will reform Wednesday as an upper level weather
system swings across the region, but the end of the work week will
see a return to warm and dry weather. A few showers are expected
Friday night and into early Saturday. At this time, it looks like
the Independence Day holiday weekend will feature good outdoor
activity weather with mild temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 117 AM EDT Tuesday...Finally starting to see a wind-down in
thunderstorm coverage after this afternoon`s scattered strong to
severe storms and heavy rainfall. Please see our latest Local
Storm Report for a summary of the hail, wind and flash flood storm
reports received. With that said, there remains an area of heavier
thunderstorms producing a decent amount of lightning from
northeast Windham County. This stretches into the southern part of
Windsor County, trailing back to additional northward-moving
showers and spotty intra-cloud flashes towards the Albany NY area
and the Pioneer Valley of northwest MA. These showers/storms are
on the leading edge of a shortwave trough evident over central NY.
This shouldn`t amount to much except for some lightning and
localized rainfall amounts generally at or below 0.50". I`ve
essentially nowcasted the PoPs, Wx and QPF in southern VT to go
with Likely/Occasional showers and chance thunder through 08z,
with chance to likely showers for the east-central and Northeast
Kingdom sections of VT.

With the boundary layer stabilizing but also rather saturated and
very weak flow through a decent amount as shown in area Doppler
wind profiler data, I suspect that there will be some intervals of
mist or patchy fog as rain clears. Northwest gradient flow toward
morning should start to mix that out, but I`ve included a greater
coverage of patchy fog in the forecast.

Temps should pretty much hover in the mid/upper 60s across
Vermont, with upper 50s to low 60s across northern New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build east from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
will remain over the region through early Friday, with fair and
dry weather expected. On Friday, models showing an upper trough
and a cold front swinging southeast across the Great Lakes. Models
also showing this upper trough will pull additional moisture
northward from the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. GFS model
showing deep layer shear of 35-40 knots in the 0-6km layer by
Friday afternoon, as well as most unstable cape values of
1500-2300 j/kg by late Friday afternoon. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Will hold
off on any enhanced wording for Friday at this time, and will let
later shifts reevaluate this. Shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into early Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will linger over the
region on Saturday, so will keep in a chance for showers. Could be
some residual showers on Sunday near the international border, but
most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. Models in good
agreement from Sunday night through Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region, with fair and dry weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mix of flight categories from VFR to LIFR
across the airports due to leftover showers across eastern VT and
developing mist or light fog with the saturated conditions.
Still some lightning being reported near VSF and LEB but should
remain distant from RUT and MPV. Expect changeable flight
category conditions to continue through at least 11z. As showers
clear expect some areas of 1 to 2 SM mist/fog to set up and this
has already occurred at BTV and MSS and likely also the case at
SLK. Winds through 12z will be light and variable.

General improving conditions to VFR early Wednesday morning. As
skies clear and stronger diurnal heating begins, expect there to
be some scattered showers/possible thunderstorms. Could see brief
MVFR cig and MVFR/IFR visby reductions in any thunderstorms.
Coverage and start time remain unclear so I`ve treated as VCSH
for now with hopefully more clarity by the 12z TAF issuance. This
activity is diurnally driven and should end by sunset. Winds
generally light northwesterly under 5 kts.

Outlook 06z thursday through Sunday...

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with LIFR radiational fog
likely at MPV and SLK Thursday night.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

12z Saturday through 00z Sunday...Generally VFR, but brief
VFR/MVFR showers possible at PBG, BTV and MPV as upper trough
passes.

00z Sunday onward...VFR under high pressure. Possible evening LIFR
fog with the best chance at SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Nash
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KALY 290539
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
139 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move slowly eastward into New
England overnight. A disturbance in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will move through on Wednesday with some showers and a
few thunderstorms possible. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday night, bringing dry weather.
Another frontal system will result in chances for storms Friday,
before fair and seasonably warm conditions return for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The cold front will continue to move slowly eastward overnight.
It`s currently located just east of the Hudson River. Lingering
showers will continue to head off to the northeast and are
expected to exit the local area in the next couple of hours. With
light to calm winds and a wet ground, low level moisture will be
high so fog and stratus will develop. Adjustments have been made
based on observational data as well as current radar and
satellite trends. Expecting lows in the 50s west of the Hudson
River and in the upper 50s to mid 60s east of the river.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday, the shortwave currently located across the Great Lakes
will translate east across the region during the midday hours on
Wednesday. Forcing and mid level cooling associated w
00004000
ith this
feature should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop,
with the best chances/coverage across the upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in this
region, where forcing will be greatest. Small hail/gusty winds
could occur with any taller convective elements. Showers and
thunderstorms should decrease in areal coverage late Wednesday
afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid 70s to mid
80s, warmest in valley areas from Albany south and east.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, high pressure will build
in with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

On Friday, another shortwave will approach from the Great Lakes
region. There remains uncertainty as to the areal extent of any
showers/possible thunderstorms will be associated with this
feature, and will ultimately depend on low level moisture recovery
from the mid Atlantic region. For now, have chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, tapering off Friday
night. Friday high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s, but may be cooler if clouds/showers become more
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally fair and seasonably warm conditions are expected through
the period. We will have to watch for any fast moving upper level
impulses which pass through within a strong mid/upper level
west/northwest flow, which could generate isolated/scattered
showers, especially on Saturday, but for now, have indicated
mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As a cold front continues to move across the region, showers and
thunderstorms are tapering off and heading eastward.  There still
may be a lingering shower in spots over the next hour or two, but
the bulk of the convection is now done.  However, lingering low
level moisture due to the rainfall will allow for IFR or LIFR
cigs/vsbys due to fog/low stratus for the remainder of the overnight
hours.  It may take an hour or two for the fog to develop, but with
calm winds and the ample low level moisture present, it certainly
looks to occur for all terminals.

After sunrise, the fog/low clouds should start to dissipate and
looks to be done completely between 7 and 8 am. This will allow for
VFR conditions to return for the day on Wednesday with just sct to
bkn cigs at 4-8 kft.  With the upper level trough moving over the
region, a rain shower is possible on Wed aftn for all sites, but any
shower will be brief and light. Will just address with a VCSH for
now due to low impact and sparse expected coverage. West winds will
be around 5-10 kts by Wednesday afternoon.

Winds should diminish for Wednesday evening and any lingering clouds
will also start to decrease.  A  period of fog or mist may be
possible again for late Wed night into Thursday morning for some
sites.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO
SIG WX.
Friday through Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday through Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this evening and
tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will
move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to between 85 and
100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will be around
40 to 55 percent.

Southerly winds this evening at 5-10 mph will become westerly
by later this evening around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
evening and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold front.
Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an inch,
however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated amounts
near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur within
thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible within
persistent slow moving downpours, particularly across the western
Mohawk Valley. Antecedent conditions are very dry though, so
widespread hydro issues on larger stem rivers are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290517
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
117 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end overnight.
Scattered showers will reform Wednesday as an upper level weather
system swings across the region, but the end of the work week will
see a return to warm and dry weather. A few showers are expected
Friday night and into early Saturday. At this time, it looks like
the Independence Day holiday weekend will feature good outdoor
activity weather with mild temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 117 AM EDT Tuesday...Finally starting to see a wind-down in
thunderstorm coverage after this afternoon`s scattered strong to
severe storms and heavy rainfall. Please see our latest Local
Storm Report for a summary of the hail, wind and flash flood storm
reports received. With that said, there remains an area of heavier
thunderstorms producing a decent amount of lightning from
northeast Windham County. This stretches into the southern part of
Windsor County, trailing back to additional northward-moving
showers and spotty intra-cloud flashes towards the Albany NY area
and the Pioneer Valley of northwest MA. These showers/storms are
on the leading edge of a shortwave trough evident over central NY.
This shouldn`t amount to much except for some lightning and
localized rainfall amounts generally at or below 0.50". I`ve
essentially nowcasted the PoPs, Wx and QPF in southern VT to go
with Likely/Occasional showers and chance thunder through 08z,
with chance to likely showers for the east-central and Northeast
Kingdom sections of VT.

With the boundary layer stabilizing but also rather saturated and
very weak flow through a decent amount as shown in area Doppler
wind profiler data, I suspect that there will be some intervals of
mist or patchy fog as rain clears. Northwest gradient flow toward
morning should start to mix that out, but I`ve included a greater
coverage of patchy fog in the forecast.

Temps should pretty much hover in the mid/upper 60s across
Vermont, with upper 50s to low 60s across northern New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240PM EDT Tuesday... Upper trough centered across vt on
wednesday with some diurnal heating accounting for some sct -shra
and possible tsra...esp in eastern vt wednesday afternoon. surface
high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues through thursday
night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures on thu and some
valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mix of flight categories from VFR to LIFR
across the airports due to leftover showers across eastern VT and
developing mist or light fog with the saturated conditions.
Still some lightning being reported near VSF and LEB but should
remain distant from RUT and MPV. Expect changeable flight
category conditions to continue through at least 11z. As showers
clear expect some areas of 1 to 2 SM mist/fog to set up and this
has already occurred at BTV and MSS and likely also the case at
SLK. Winds through 12z will be light and variable.

General improving conditions to VFR early Wednesday morning. As
skies clear and stronger diurnal heating begins, expect there to
be some scattered showers/possible thunderstorms. Could see brief
MVFR cig and MVFR/IFR visby reductions in any thunderstorms.
Coverage and start time remain unclear so I`ve treated as VCSH
for now with hopefully more clarity by the 12z TAF issuance. This
activity is diurnally driven and should end by sunset. Winds
generally light northwesterly under 5 kts.

Outlook 06z thursday through Sunday...

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with LIFR radiational fog
likely at MPV and SLK Thursday night.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

12z Saturday through 00z Sunday...Generally VFR, but brief
VFR/MVFR showers possible at PBG, BTV and MPV as upper trough
passes.

00z Sunday onward...VFR under high pressure. Possible evening LIFR
fog with the best chance at SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Nash
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290219
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1019 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end overnight.
Scattered showers will reform Wednesday as an upper level weather
system swings across the region, but the end of the work week will
see a return to warm and dry weather. A few showers are expected
Friday night and into early Saturday. At this time, it looks like
the Independance Day holiday weekend will feature good outdoor
activity weather with mild temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 959 PM EDT Tuesday...for the late evening update, only
noticeable change was to remove the "heavy rain" aspect. radar
trends showing a steady decrease in the coverage and intensity.
still a few more hours of showers/isolated thunderstorms,
especially for vermont. otherwise, looks like mother nature will
behave herself for the remainder of the night. will maintain a
close watch on radar, since we did have a few spot locations with
some significant rainfall. radar estimates of 3-5" of rain having
fell in 5 mile wide band from hyde park to eden and lowell
vermont, as well as around jay peak vt and across parts of eastern
franklin/western clinton counties in ny. thus far, only minor
flooding reports have been recieved, but suspect there was a
little more that happened that we aren`t aware of at this point.

otherwise, possibility for some patchy fog later tonight, though
part of that will depend up on how much clearing may develop. do
have some of that scattered among the forecast in the hours
between 2am and 6am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240PM EDT Tuesday... Upper trough centered across vt on
wednesday with some diurnal heating accounting for some sct -shra
and possible tsra...esp in eastern vt wednesday afternoon. surface
high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues through thursday
night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures on thu and some
valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z thursday...tried to time the potential for tsra at
various terminals through 02-03z. after that, should be only
showers and primarily for vermont locations through about 06z.
after that, looking at patchy fog with ifr conditions. guidance
doesn`t provide a clear answer, and whether a location gets any
fog will depend on how much the clouds clear out later tonight. at
this point, think the better chance will be across northern new
york (mainly SLK, but perhaps PBG) where there should be a little
more in the way of breaks in the clouds. for wednesday, expect
additional showers/isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. primarily hit or miss (mostly miss), so kept VFR in the
TAFs, though any shower will bring MVFR conditions.

Outlook 00z thursday through Saturday...

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...nash
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Nash/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290219
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1019 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end overnight.
Scattered showers will reform Wednesday as an upper level weather
system swings across the region, but the end of the work week will
see a return to warm and dry weather. A few showers are expected
Friday night and into early Saturday. At this time, it looks like
the Independance Day holiday weekend will feature good outdoor
activity weather with mild temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 959 PM EDT Tuesday...for the late evening update, only
noticeable change was to remove the "heavy rain" aspect. radar
trends showing a steady decrease in the coverage and intensity.
still a few more hours of showers/isolated thunderstorms,
especially for vermont. otherwise, looks like mother nature will
behave herself for the remainder of the night. will maintain a
close watch on radar, since we did have a few spot locations with
some significant rainfall. radar estimates of 3-5" of rain having
fell in 5 mile wide band from hyde park to eden and lowell
vermont, as well as around jay peak vt and across parts of eastern
franklin/western clinton counties in ny. thu
00001DD8
s far, only minor
flooding reports have been recieved, but suspect there was a
little more that happened that we aren`t aware of at this point.

otherwise, possibility for some patchy fog later tonight, though
part of that will depend up on how much clearing may develop. do
have some of that scattered among the forecast in the hours
between 2am and 6am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240PM EDT Tuesday... Upper trough centered across vt on
wednesday with some diurnal heating accounting for some sct -shra
and possible tsra...esp in eastern vt wednesday afternoon. surface
high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues through thursday
night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures on thu and some
valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z thursday...tried to time the potential for tsra at
various terminals through 02-03z. after that, should be only
showers and primarily for vermont locations through about 06z.
after that, looking at patchy fog with ifr conditions. guidance
doesn`t provide a clear answer, and whether a location gets any
fog will depend on how much the clouds clear out later tonight. at
this point, think the better chance will be across northern new
york (mainly SLK, but perhaps PBG) where there should be a little
more in the way of breaks in the clouds. for wednesday, expect
additional showers/isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. primarily hit or miss (mostly miss), so kept VFR in the
TAFs, though any shower will bring MVFR conditions.

Outlook 00z thursday through Saturday...

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...nash
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Nash/SLW

000
FXUS61 KALY 290210
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1010 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region tonight,
resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be produce
locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will move through on
Wednesday with a few more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
will then build into the region Wednesday night into Thursday
night, bringing dry weather. Another frontal system may bring a
few showers or thunderstorms Friday, before fair and seasonably
warm conditions return for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The cold front will continue slowly moving east and south, as the
weak wave of low pressure continues to ripple along it. The
strongest thunderstorms are in the mid Hudson Valley through
western New England...with locally heavy rain and some ponding of
water on roadways. Lighter rain is occurring behind the convection
and the back edge of the rain is in the Southern Adirondacks to
Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills...moving slowly east.

Upper energy is still in the Great lakes and some broken cloud
cover and isolated showers are associated with the upper energy.
So...some breaks in the clouds should occur in areas along and
west of the Hudson Valley through the night but light winds and
wet ground could promote some patchy fog and development of low
clouds.

Some adjustments to the rain chances and the movement of the rain
through tonight to reflect the current radar and satellite trends.
Some other minor modifications to sky cover and temperatures as
well.

Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 60s, with some 50s
possible across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday, the shortwave currently located across the Great Lakes
will translate east across the region during the midday hours on
Wednesday. Forcing and mid level cooling associated with this
feature should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop,
with the best chances/coverage across the upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in this
region, where forcing will be greatest. Small hail/gusty winds
could occur with any taller convective elements. Showers and
thunderstorms should decrease in areal coverage late Wednesday
afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid 70s to mid
80s, warmest in valley areas from Albany south and east.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, high pressure will build
in with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

On Friday, another shortwave will approach from the Great Lakes
region. There remains uncertainty as to the areal extent of any
showers/possible thunderstorms will be associated with this
feature, and will ultimately depend on low level moisture recovery
from the mid Atlantic region. For now, have chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, tapering off Friday
night. Friday high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s, but may be cooler if clouds/showers become more
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally fair and seasonably warm conditions are expected through
the period. We will have to watch for any fast moving upper level
impulses which pass through within a strong mid/upper level
west/northwest flow, which could generate isolated/scattered
showers, especially on Saturday, but for now, have indicated
mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Leading line of showers and thunderstorms tracking through the KGFL
and KALB areas through 01Z. Area of intermittent rain behind the
line of convection should occur through about 06Z at KGFL and
KALB...then lingering low level moisture will help keep MVFR
ceilings in the area through much of the night. Some MVFR
visibilities in fog should occur intermittently through the night as
well. The low clouds and fog should break up by around 13Z.

The convection should reach KPSF and KPOU between 01Z and 03Z..then
the area of showers behind the convection lingers to around 06Z-08Z.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities should linger through about 13Z with
the low level moisture.

After around 13Z...ceilings and visibilities improve to VFR...but by
15Z-17Z...some scattered showers could develop around KALB...KGFL
and KPSF as upper energy tracks through our region. So...including a
VCSH there for
00004000
 Wednesday afternoon.

South to southeast winds through about 01Z at KPOU and KPSF until
the leading edge of the convection tracks through. There could be
some northwesterly wind gusts to 25 kt in the leading edge of the
convection.  Winds become west and northwest around 10 kt once the
convection exits.  Then as the rain ends later tonight the winds
trend to near calm.   Winds become southwest to northwest at 10 kt
or less Wednesday morning...continuing through Wednesday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this evening and
tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will
move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to between 85 and
100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will be around
40 to 55 percent.

Southerly winds this evening at 5-10 mph will become westerly
by later this evening around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
evening and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold front.
Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an inch,
however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated amounts
near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur within
thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible within
persistent slow moving downpours, particularly across the western
Mohawk Valley. Antecedent conditions are very dry though, so
widespread hydro issues on larger stem rivers are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290008
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
808 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will continue to move across the North
tonight, triggering heavy rain showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms especially across the champlain valley and vermont.
Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings
through, but the end of the work week will see a return of warm
and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 755 PM EDT Tuesday...with the exception of a rogue severe
t-storm over st lawrence county ny as I type this discussion, the
threat for severe weather is diminishing as surface instability is
decreasing. the threat for locally heavy rain is not over just yet
however.

in general, things are going according to forecast. we have a band
of showers and thunderstorms stretching from north-central VT
southwestward into the Albany NY area and then southward from
there. With the deep southwest flow, the eastward progress of this
band has been slow. still have convection to the south that will
ride up to the northeast within the convective band, giving the
potential for additional localized heavy rains in areas that have
seen rain already. just how much the convection will keep going is
a little uncertain. some hi-res meso models do hint that activity
will keep on going through about midnight in association with the
passage of an upper level shortwave.

luckily, it was dry to begin with, and the footprints of the
heaviest of rain has been rather small. thus the various small
stream basins have, for the most part, not been overwhelmed. we
will continue to maintain a close watch of radar trends, because
in some locations we`ve had rainfall totals that have touched our
flash flood guidance thresholds. this includes a 2.90" of rain in
just 75 minutes in Eden Mills VT a little while ago.

in general, the tweaks to the forecast were based on the latest
radar/satellite/model trends, but overall the forecast concept
didn`t change. any heavy rainfall will be through midnight, with
residual showers across Vermont decreasing after midnight.
Possibility for some patchy fog later tonight, though part of that
will depend up on how much clearing may develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240PM EDT Tuesday... Upper trough centered across vt on
wednesday with some diurnal heating accounting for some sct -shra
and possible tsra...esp in eastern vt wednesday afternoon. surface
high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues through thursday
night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures on thu and some
valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH tuesday/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z thursday...tried to time the potential for tsra at
various terminals through 02-03z. after that, should be only
showers and primarily for vermont locations through about 06z.
after that, looking at patchy fog with ifr conditions. guidance
doesn`t provide a clear answer, and whether a location gets any
fog will depend on how much the clouds clear out later tonight. at
this point, think the better chance will be across northern new
york (mainly SLK, but perhaps PBG) where there should be a little
more in the way of breaks in the clouds. for wednesday, expect
additional showers/isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. primarily hit or miss (mostly miss), so kept VFR in the
TAFs, though any shower will bring MVFR conditions.

Outlook 00z thursday through Saturday...

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for rest of this afteroon/tonight. Low-level wind fields
parallel to the cold front should lead to training of convective
cells, and if persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated
flash flooding. PWAT values are not excessively high but are
around 1.4-1.6". Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high
given the relative dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly
1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that
amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line
with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour
FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Nash/SLW
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/slw

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290008
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
808 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will continue to move across the North
tonight, triggering heavy rain showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms especially across the champlain valley and vermont.
Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings
through, but the end of the work week will see a return of warm
and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 755 PM EDT Tuesday...with the exception of a rogue severe
t-storm over st lawrence county ny as I type this discussion, the
threat for severe weather is diminishing as surface instability is
decreasing. the threat for locally heavy rain is not over just yet
however.

in general, things are going according to forecast. we have a band
of showers and thunderstorms stretching from north-central VT
southwestward into the Albany NY area and then southward from
there. With the deep southwest flow, the eastward progress of this
band has been slow. still have convection to the south that will
ride up to the northeast within the convective band, giving the
potential for additional localized heavy rains in areas that have
seen rain already. just how much the convection will keep going is
a little uncertain. some hi-res meso models do hint that activity
will keep on going through about midnight in association with the
passage of an upper level shortwave.

luckily, it was dry to begin with, and the footprints of the
heaviest of rain has been rather small. thus the various small
stream basins have, for the most part, not been overwhelmed. we
will continue to maintain a close watch of radar trends, because
in some locations we`ve had rainfall totals that have touched our
flash flood guidance thresholds. this includes a 2.90" of rain in
just 75 minutes in Eden Mills VT a little while ago.

in general, the tweaks to the forecast were based on the latest
radar/satellite/model trends, but overall the forecast concept
didn`t change. any heavy rainfall will be through midnight, with
residual showers across Vermont decreasing after midnight.
Possibility for some patchy fog later tonight, though part of that
will depend up on how much clearing may develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240PM EDT Tuesday... Upper trough centered across vt on
wednesday with some diurnal heating accounting for some sct -shra
and possible tsra...esp in eastern vt wednesday afternoon. surface
high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues through thursday
night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures on thu and some
valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH tuesday/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z thursday...tried to time the potential for tsra at
various terminals through 02-03z. after that, should be only
showers and primarily for vermont locations through about 06z.
after that, looking at patchy fog with ifr conditions. guidance
doesn`t provide a clear answer, and whether a location gets any
fog will depend on how much the clouds clear out later tonight. at
this point, think the better chance will be across northern new
york (mainly SLK, but perhaps PBG) where there should be a little
more in the way of breaks in the clouds. for wednesday, expect
additional showers/isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. primarily hit or miss (mostly miss), so kept VFR in the
TAFs, though any shower will bring MVFR conditions.

Outlook 00z thursday through Saturday...

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for rest of this afteroon/tonight. Low-level wind fields
parallel to the cold front should lead to training of convective
cells, and if persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated
flash flooding. PWAT values are not excessively high but are
around 1.4-1.6". Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high
given the relative dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly
1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that
amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line
with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour
FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Nash/SLW
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/slw

000
FXUS61 KALY 282325
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
725 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region tonight,
resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be produce
locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will move through on
Wednesday with a few more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
will then build into the region Wednesday night into Thursday
night, bringing dry weather. Another frontal system may bring a
few showers or thunderstorms Friday, before fair and seasonably
warm conditions return for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

...Flash Flood Watch cancelled for western Mohawk Valley...

As of 725 PM EDT, a prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary extended
from the Saratoga/Lake George region southwest into the central
Catskills. A weak wave of low pressure may be developing along
this boundary across eastern NY, in response to the approach of a
potent shortwave currently located across the eastern Great Lakes
region.

In the vicinity of this boundary, numerous showers and
thunderstorms have developed, producing locally very heavy
rainfall, and isolated gusty winds and h
00002F86
ail.

The boundary will continue slowly trudging east and south, as the
weak wave of low pressure continues to ripple along it. Showers
and embedded thunderstorms will continue in the vicinity of this
boundary, especially from the Lake George region into the Capital
Region and NE Catskills through 9 PM. Locally heavy downpours will
remain possible, with the threat for strong winds diminishing.

Between roughly 9 PM and midnight, the showers and embedded
thunderstorms should move into western New England, and the mid
Hudson Valley. Again, some locally heavy downpours will remain
possible. The showers should weaken after midnight, and decrease
in areal coverage, although could linger across portions of SE VT,
and perhaps NW CT.

Areas of fog/low clouds may develop in areas which receive
rainfall this evening.

Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 60s, with some 50s
possible across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday, the shortwave currently located across the Great Lakes
will translate east across the region during the midday hours on
Wednesday. Forcing and mid level cooling associated with this
feature should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop,
with the best chances/coverage across the upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in this
region, where forcing will be greatest. Small hail/gusty winds
could occur with any taller convective elements. Showers and
thunderstorms should decrease in areal coverage late Wednesday
afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid 70s to mid
80s, warmest in valley areas from Albany south and east.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, high pressure will build
in with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

On Friday, another shortwave will approach from the Great Lakes
region. There remains uncertainty as to the areal extent of any
showers/possible thunderstorms will be associated with this
feature, and will ultimately depend on low level moisture recovery
from the mid Atlantic region. For now, have chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, tapering off Friday
night. Friday high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s, but may be cooler if clouds/showers become more
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally fair and seasonably warm conditions are expected through
the period. We will have to watch for any fast moving upper level
impulses which pass through within a strong mid/upper level
west/northwest flow, which could generate isolated/scattered
showers, especially on Saturday, but for now, have indicated
mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Leading line of showers and thunderstorms tracking through the KGFL
and KALB areas through 01Z. Area of intermittent rain behind the
line of convection should occur through about 06Z at KGFL and
KALB...then lingering low level moisture will help keep MVFR
ceilings in the area through much of the night. Some MVFR
visibilities in fog should occur intermittently through the night as
well. The low clouds and fog should break up by around 13Z.

The convection should reach KPSF and KPOU between 01Z and 03Z..then
the area of showers behind the convection lingers to around 06Z-08Z.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities should linger through about 13Z with
the low level moisture.

After around 13Z...ceilings and visibilities improve to VFR...but by
15Z-17Z...some scattered showers could develop around KALB...KGFL
and KPSF as upper energy tracks through our region. So...including a
VCSH there for Wednesday afternoon.

South to southeast winds through about 01Z at KPOU and KPSF until
the leading edge of the convection tracks through. There could be
some northwesterly wind gusts to 25 kt in the leading edge of the
convection.  Winds become west and northwest around 10 kt once the
convection exits.  Then as the rain ends later tonight the winds
trend to near calm.   Winds become southwest to northwest at 10 kt
or less Wednesday morning...continuing through Wednesday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this evening and
tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will
move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to between 85 and
100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will be around
40 to 55 percent.

Southerly winds this evening at 5-10 mph will become westerly
by later this evening around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
evening and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold front.
Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an inch,
however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated amounts
near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur within
thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible within
persistent slow moving downpours, particularly across the western
Mohawk Valley. Antecedent conditions are very dry though, so
widespread hydro issues on larger stem rivers are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 282003
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this
evening and tonight, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may be produce locally very heavy rainfall. A disturbance
will move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday night, bringing dry weather.
Another frontal system may bring a few showers or thunderstorms
Friday, before fair and seasonably warm conditions return for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

...Flash Flood Watch in effect until 10 PM EDT for the southern
Herkimer CO...Fulton and Montgomery Cos...

As of 345 PM EDT, a prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary extended
from the western Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley, into south central
NYS. It appears a weak wave of low pressure may be developing
along this boundary across far NE PA, in response to the approach
of a potent shortwave currently located across the eastern Great
Lakes region.

In the vicinity of this boundary, numerous showers and
thunderstorms have developed, producing locally very heavy
rainfall, and isolated gusty winds and hail.

As the aforementioned wave ripples along this boundary, it appears
that the best chance for showers/thunderstorms through sunset will
be across Herkimer CO and Hamilton Cos, and portions of the
western Mohawk Valley. As mid level winds back with the approach
of the aforementioned shortwave, some of this activity may
actually expand back northward into central and northern
Herkimer/Hamilton Cos.

Closer to, and especially after sunset, we expect the weak wave of
low pressure to move northeast, allowing this boundary to begin
sagging E and S. This should allow the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to increase from northwest to southeast across the
eastern Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Lake George/Saratoga
Region, and southern VT around or shortly after sunset, and into
the Berkshires a bit later, most likely between roughly 10 PM and
midnight. The main impacts from these thunderstorms should be
locally heavy rain, but can not rule out localized gusty winds,
especially in any merging thunderstorm clusters and associated
cold pools.

It appears that the western Mohawk Valley may remain in an area of
repeated/multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through this
evening. Although it has been quite dry lately, individual
thunderstorms will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour, and the western Mohawk Valley may be the most
susceptible area for training of this convection, therefore a
Flash Flood Watch has been issued through 10 PM.

Later tonight, showers and thunderstorms should weaken as they
trend south and east.

Areas of fog/low clouds may develop in areas which receive
rainfall this evening.

Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s, with some 50s possible
across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday, the shortwave currently located across the Great Lakes
will translate east across the region during the midday hours on
Wednesday. Forcing and mid level cooling associated with this
feature should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop,
with the best chances/coverage across the upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in this
region, where forcing will be greatest. Small hail/gusty winds
could occur with any taller convective elements. Showers and
thunderstorms should decrease in areal coverage late Wednesday
afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid 70s to mid
80s, warmest in valley areas from Albany south and east.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, high pressure will build
in with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

On Friday, another shortwave will approach from the Great Lakes
region. There remains uncertainty as to the areal extent of any
showers/possible thunderstorms will be associated with this
feature, and will ultimately depend on low level moisture recovery
from the mid Atlantic region. For now, have chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, tapering off Friday
night. Friday high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s, but may be cooler if clouds/showers become more
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally fair and seasonably warm conditions are expected through
the period. We will have to watch for any fast moving upper level
impulses which pass through within a strong mid/upper level
west/northwest flow, which could generate isolated/scattered
showers, especially on Saturday, but for now, have indicated
mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We continue to watch convection developing upstream at this time as
a few thunderstorms are just to the west of the Capital District
with a sct-bkn line of convection along the cold front in the
vicinity of I81.  Expectations are for this line of convection to
develop and mature as it approaches the Hudson Valley TAF locations
with a period of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.  The best window
of opportunity would be from approximately 20Z Tuesday til 02Z
Wednesday.

Tonight depending on how much rain impacts the TAF sites, widespread
MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight in the

00003B74
wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds this afternoon with gusts into the teens and lower
20s at KALB during the afternoon. Winds will become light
and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this evening and
tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will
move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to between 85 and
100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will be around
40 to 55 percent.

Southerly winds this evening at 5-10 mph will become westerly
later tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be northwest
at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
evening and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold front.
Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an inch,
however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated amounts
near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur within
thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible within
persistent slow moving downpours, particularly across the western
Mohawk Valley. Antecedent conditions are very dry though, so
widespread hydro issues on larger stem rivers are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>040-
     082.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 281838
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
238 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will continue to move across the North
tonight, triggering heavy rain showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms especially across the champlain valley and vermont.
Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings
through, but the end of the work week will see a return of warm
and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through wednesay/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop as expectd across NE NY and northern VT as a result of
moderate instability and a slow moving cold front moving across
the area and the approach of a vigourous shortwave moving across
the eastern great lakes this afternoon and rest of forecast area
tonight.

Wind dynamics are not that all great with 0-6km shear values in
area of greatest instability 30-35kts yet stronger shear of >45
kts lags behind the instability. Perhaps these winds can tap into
any thunderstorms across northern vt this evening and bring about
localized severe.

Storm motion is expected to be less than 25 kts and with pwats
alg/ahd of frontal boundary in the 1.5 inch vicinity and
unidirectional parallel flow to frontal boundary can expect some
slow-moving training storms.

Upper level dynamics are not too bad with h25 jet of 80+ kts
moving across northern vt between 03-09z and potentially may be in
favored coupled jet streak which may bring some enhancement to
keep upper vertical motion going in rich pwats.

Therefore...some concern for localized 2-3+ inch rainfall and
despite dry antecedent conditions very localized flooding. Weather
Prediction Center mesoscale precipitation discussion issued
earlier today confirms our concerns.

Again...very localized and for many a much welcomed drink of
water.

Light/calm wind and lots of low-level moisture will likely
promote some patchy fog where it rains and some patchy dense fog
in climo favored adrndks and central/eastern mtn/river valleys.

Upper trough centered across vt on wednesday with some diurnal
heating accounting for some sct -shra and possible tsra...esp in
eastern vt wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY night THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 240PM
EDT Tuesday...surface high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues
through thursday night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures
on thu and some valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent
thu night.&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Stage set for developing heavy showers
and thunderstorms along a cold front, starting around 18z
kslk/kplb and then advancing eastward into VT terminals. mvfr/ifr
with heavy rain showers and thunderstorms and some turbulance
associated with thunderstorms. Aft 06z...shower activity
diminishes but lots of llvl moisture should allow for MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsby due to fog. Aft 12z wed...vfr with perhaps some
instability -shra.

Outlook 18z Wednesday through Saturday...

18z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible
brief MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 235 pM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for rest of this afteroon/tonight. Low-level wind fields
parallel to the cold front should lead to training of convective
cells, and if persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated
flash flooding. PWAT values are not excessively high but are
around 1.4-1.6". Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high
given the relative dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly
1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that
amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line
with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour
FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW/AL
NEAR TERM...SLW/AL
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/slw

000
FXUS61 KBTV 281838
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
238 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will continue to move across the North
tonight, triggering heavy rain showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms especially across the champlain valley and vermont.
Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings
through, but the end of the work week will see a return of warm
and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through wednesay/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop as expectd across NE NY and northern VT as a result of
moderate instability and a slow moving cold front moving across
the area and the approach of a vigourous shortwave moving across
the eastern great lakes this afternoon and rest of forecast area
tonight.

Wind dynamics are not that all great with 0-6km shear values in
area of greatest instability 30-35kts yet stronger shear of >45
kts lags behind the instability. Perhaps these winds can tap into
any thunderstorms across northern vt this evening and bring about
localized severe.

Storm motion is expected to be less than 25 kts and with pwats
alg/ahd of frontal boundary in the 1.5 inch vicinity and
unidirectional parallel flow to frontal boundary can expect some
slow-moving training storms.

Upper level dynamics are not too bad with h25 jet of 80+ kts
moving across northern vt between 03-09z and potentially may be in
favored coupled jet streak which may bring some enhancement to
keep upper vertical motion going in rich pwats.

Therefore...some concern for localized 2-3+ inch rainfall and
despite dry antecedent conditions very localized flooding. Weather
Prediction Center mesoscale precipitation discussion issued
earlier today confirms our concerns.

Again...very localized and for many a much welcomed drink of
water.

Light/calm wind and lots of low-level moisture will likely
promote some patchy fog where it rains and some patchy dense fog
in climo favored adrndks and central/eastern mtn/river valleys.

Upper trough centered across vt on wednesday with some diurnal
heating accounting for some sct -shra and possible tsra...esp in
eastern vt wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY night THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 240PM
EDT Tuesday...surface high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues
through thursday night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures
on thu and some valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent
thu night.&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Stage set for developing heavy showers
and thunderstorms along a cold front, starting around 18z
kslk/kplb and then advancing eastward into VT terminals. mvfr/ifr
with heavy rain showers and thunderstorms and some turbulance
associated with thunderstorms. Aft 06z...shower activity
diminishes but lots of llvl moisture should allow for MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsby due to fog. Aft 12z wed...vfr with perhaps some
instability -shra.

Outlook 18z Wednesday through Saturday...

18z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible
brief MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 235 pM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for rest of this afteroon/tonight. Low-level wind fields
parallel to the cold front should lead to training of convective
cells, and if persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated
flash flooding. PWAT values are not excessively high but are
around 1.4-1.6". Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high
given the relative dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly
1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that
amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line
with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour
FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW/AL
NEAR TERM...SLW/AL
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/slw

000
FXUS61 KALY 281721
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
121 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 115 PM EDT, scattered showers/thunderstorms were developing
along and ahead of a weak prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary,
which extended from the western Adirondacks into extreme E/SE
Oneida Co, and southwest to east of BGM. Further west, a cold
front and strong upper level impulse was located across the
eastern Great Lakes region and western NYS.

Recent SPC analysis suggests SBCAPES in the 1500-2000 J/KG range
across central NYS extending into portions of the Mohawk Valley
and Schoharie CO region, with generally 500-1500 J/KG further
south and east, lowest across the mid Hudson Valley/Berkshires and

00003AA5
NW CT, where a low cloud deck remains most persistent.

We expect showers/thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage
along and just ahead of the aforementioned prefrontal
trough/boundary, initially across the Mohawk Valley/western
Adirondacks, then slowly advancing east/southeast closer to the
Capital Region/Saratoga Region and Lake George region later this
afternoon and closer to sunset. Any thunderstorms will be capable
of producing locally gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. As mid
level winds increase with the approach of the shortwave across the
eastern Great Lakes, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts could
occur within any merging cells and associated cold pools which are
generated, with this threat appearing mainly from Albany and
points N and W through sunset.

Perhaps the bigger threat will be localized intense downpours,
with some rainfall rates possibly reaching up to 2 inches/hour.
This could certainly lead to rapid ponding of water in poor
drainage/urban areas. If any cells train over one location for
any length of time, isolated flash flooding will be possible in
such areas, despite such recent dry conditions.

Temperatures will likely reach the lower/mid 80s in valley areas
from Albany north and west, with mainly 75-80 across higher
terrain, and in valley areas south and east of Albany.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We continue to watch convection developing upstream at this time as
a few thunderstorms are just to the west of the Capital District
with a sct-bkn line of convection along the cold front in the
vicinity of I81.  Expectations are for this line of convection to
develop and mature as it approaches the Hudson Valley TAF locations
with a period of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.  The best window
of opportunity would be from approximately 20Z Tuesday til 02Z
Wednesday.

Tonight depending on how much rain impacts the TAF sites, widespread
MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight in the
wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds this afternoon with gusts into the teens and lower
20s at KALB during the afternoon. Winds will become light
and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 115 PM EDT, scattered showers/thunderstorms were developing
along and ahead of a weak prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary,
which extended from the western Adirondacks into extreme E/SE
Oneida Co, and southwest to east of BGM. Further west, a cold
front and strong upper level impulse was located across the
eastern Great Lakes region and western NYS.

Recent SPC analysis suggests SBCAPES in the 1500-2000 J/KG range
across central NYS extending into portions of the Mohawk Valley
and Schoharie CO region, with generally 500-1500 J/KG further
south and east, lowest across the mid Hudson Valley/Berkshires and
NW CT, where a low cloud deck remains most persistent.

We expect showers/thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage
along and just ahead of the aforementioned prefrontal
trough/boundary, initially across the Mohawk Valley/western
Adirondacks, then slowly advancing east/southeast closer to the
Capital Region/Saratoga Region and Lake George region later this
afternoon and closer to sunset. Any thunderstorms will be capable
of producing locally gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. As mid
level winds increase with the approach of the shortwave across the
eastern Great Lakes, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts could
occur within any merging cells and associated cold pools which are
generated, with this threat appearing mainly from Albany and
points N and W through sunset.

Perhaps the bigger threat will be localized intense downpours,
with some rainfall rates possibly reaching up to 2 inches/hour.
This could certainly lead to rapid ponding of water in poor
drainage/urban areas. If any cells train over one locations for
any length of time, isolated flash flooding will be possible in
such areas, despite such dry conditions.

Temperatures will likely reach the lower/mid 80s in valley areas
from Albany north and west, with mainly 75-80 across higher
terrain, and in valley areas south and east of Albany.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We continue to watch convection developing upstream at this time as
a few thunderstorms are just to the west of the Capital District
with a sct-bkn line of convection along the cold front in the
vicinity of I81.  Expectations are for this line of convection to
develop and mature as it approaches the Hudson Valley TAF locations
with a period of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.  The best window
of opportunity would be from approximately 20Z Tuesday til 02Z
Wednesday.

Tonight depending on how much rain impacts the TAF sites, widespread
MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight in the
wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds this afternoon with gusts into the teens and lower
20s at KALB during the afternoon. Winds will become light
and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM/IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 281659
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1259 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move 
00004000
into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 100 pm EDT Tuesday...Convection has begun on schedule and
rapidly developing. strong to isold severe stil possibility
although wind field and storm motion not that good. mesoscale
precipitation discussion issued earlier highlighting the heavy
rainfall with these slow moving storms and in-line with
previous/current thinking. again...largely localized flash
flooding potential for training storms and largely focused across
nrn vt and ne ny. no changes to on-going forecast.

Previous discussion from 958 am follows...No changes as things
are on track. already some convection along pre-frontal trof axis
as models have depicted well but still should be around/after noon
when things begin to pop. water vapor really shows healthy neg-
tilt shortwave thus just awaiting on heating and instability with
the approach of the shortwave.

Previous discussion from 706 am follows...No changes to the
forecast except to account for current observations. Radar shows
some light showers already being observed across southern St.
Lawrence County with some stubborn lower stratus across southeast
VT. In between is mostly sunny skies, though these will gradually
begin to fill in as cumulus begin to develop. Cold front as of 630
AM essentially still resides along the St. Lawrence River south to
just east of Rochester NY and will slowly advance east. Latest
HRRR and 06z runs of the BTV-4 and BTV-6 WRFs all continue to
point to an active afternoon and evening, so I`ve made no changes
to PoPs or Wx. Temps should keep climbing several degrees from
relatively mild early-morning lows, but will eventually be curbed
by greater cloud cover and developing showers/thunderstorms. Highs
upper 70s to lower/mid 80s appear on track.

Previous discussion from 355 AM follows...

Active Tuesday is in store for a large part of the North Country,
particularly focusing on an area from the Northern Adirondacks
eastward, as a slow-moving cold front will spark scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by early this afternoon into
evening hrs. Storms will become strong to occasionally severe and
be capable of strong to at times damaging winds, small mainly sub-
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall capable of triggering
isolated areas of flash flooding. See the Hydrology section below
for more details on the localized heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should onlyout in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering MVFR stratus at RUT will burn
off to VFR within the next couple hrs. Stage will then be set for
developing heavy showers and thunderstorms along a cold front,
starting around 16z Tuesday at SLK and then advancing eastward
into PBG/VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Tried to indicate where the best window would
be for stronger storms with a 3SM +SHRA following with a 6SM
-SHRA. See specific TAFs for timing, with later amendments likely
to address more imminent risk. General weakening trend from 03z
through 12z. Winds south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest
3-6 kts late in the TAF period.

Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto/SLW
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KBTV 281659
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1259 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 100 pm EDT Tuesday...Convection has begun on schedule and
rapidly developing. strong to isold severe stil possibility
although wind field and storm motion not that good. mesoscale
precipitation discussion issued earlier highlighting the heavy
rainfall with these slow moving storms and in-line with
previous/current thinking. again...largely localized flash
flooding potential for training storms and largely focused across
nrn vt and ne ny. no changes to on-going forecast.

Previous discussion from 958 am follows...No changes as things
are on track. already some convection along pre-frontal trof axis
as models have depicted well but still should be around/after noon
when things begin to pop. water vapor really shows healthy neg-
tilt shortwave thus just awaiting on heating and instability with
the approach of the shortwave.

Previous discussion from 706 am follows...No changes to the
forecast except to account for current observations. Radar shows
some light showers already being observed across southern St.
Lawrence County with some stubborn lower stratus across southeast
VT. In between is mostly sunny skies, though these will gradually
begin to fill in as cumulus begin to develop. Cold front as of 630
AM essentially still resides along the St. Lawrence River south to
just east of Rochester NY and will slowly advance east. Latest
HRRR and 06z runs of the BTV-4 and BTV-6 WRFs all continue to
point to an active afternoon and evening, so I`ve made no changes
to PoPs or Wx. Temps should keep climbing several degrees from
relatively mild early-morning lows, but will eventually be curbed
by greater cloud cover and developing showers/thunderstorms. Highs
upper 70s to lower/mid 80s appear on track.

Previous discussion from 355 AM follows...

Active Tuesday is in store for a large part of the North Country,
particularly focusing on an area from the Northern Adirondacks
eastward, as a slow-moving cold front will spark scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by early this afternoon into
evening hrs. Storms will become strong to occasionally severe and
be capable of strong to at times damaging winds, small mainly sub-
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall capable of triggering
isolated areas of flash flooding. See the Hydrology section below
for more details on the localized heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should onlyout in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering MVFR stratus at RUT will burn
off to VFR within the next couple hrs. Stage will then be set for
developing heavy showers and thunderstorms along a cold front,
starting around 16z Tuesday at SLK and then a
000024B4
dvancing eastward
into PBG/VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Tried to indicate where the best window would
be for stronger storms with a 3SM +SHRA following with a 6SM
-SHRA. See specific TAFs for timing, with later amendments likely
to address more imminent risk. General weakening trend from 03z
through 12z. Winds south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest
3-6 kts late in the TAF period.

Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto/SLW
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KALY 281520
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1120 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1100 AM EDT...

...Continuing to closely monitor the potential for severe
thunderstorms across much of the region this afternoon into this
evening...

Cold front appears to be along the I81 corridor yet ample stratus
was lingering across most of our local region. This has slowed
down the heating a bit but several breaks are noticeable in the
Schoharie Valley and through the Adirondacks. LAPS/SPC Mesoscale
windows show SBCAPES climbing to around 1k J/KG (especially where
breaks are more pronounced and along differential heating
boundaries) with PWATS generally between 1-1.25" which is near to
just above normal. Expectations are as the upper trough over
Michigan approaches and a surface focus with the slow moving
frontal boundary that convection should initiate over the next
couple of hours as we approach and exceed our convective
temperature. SPC continues with the slight risk at this time as
wet microbursts appear to be the main severe threat. As for
rainfall, while anomalies are not too high and antecedent dry
conditions of late, there is an outside chance for flooding/flash
flooding as training of convection could occur due to slow
movement of the surface front and modest winds aloft. So for this
update, removed pops up til noon then continued with the higher
pops through the afternoon and evening hours. Slowed down the
diurnal temperature climb a bit along with more clouds initially
before become partly sunny.

Prev disc...
A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning.
Convection will develop across the area impact
00004000
ing the TAFs sites
this afternoon and evening as cold front approaches and gradually
crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection will initiate by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours and the
evening hours. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and this
will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew points in
the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The primary threat
will be strong to damaging winds gusts along with locally heavy
rainfall.

Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at
KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds today with gusts into the teens at KALB during
the afternoon. Winds will become light tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 281358
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
958 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 949 AM EDT Tuesday...No changes as things are on track.
already some convection along pre-frontal trof axis as models have
depicted well but still should be around/after noon when things
begin to pop. water vapor really shows healthy neg-tilt shortwave
thus just awaiting on heating and instability with the approach of
the shortwave.

Previous discussion from 706 am follows...No changes to the
forecast except to account for current observations. Radar shows
some light showers already being observed across southern St.
Lawrence County with some stubborn lower stratus across southeast
VT. In between is mostly sunny skies, though these will gradually
begin to fill in as cumulus begin to develop. Cold front as of 630
AM essentially still resides along the St. Lawrence River south to
just east of Rochester NY and will slowly advance east. Latest
HRRR and 06z runs of the BTV-4 and BTV-6 WRFs all continue to
point to an active afternoon and evening, so I`ve made no changes
to PoPs or Wx. Temps should keep climbing several degrees from
relatively mild early-morning lows, but will eventually be curbed
by greater cloud cover and developing showers/thunderstorms. Highs
upper 70s to lower/mid 80s appear on track.

Previous discussion from 355 AM follows...

Active Tuesday is in store for a large part of the North Country,
particularly focusing on an area from the Northern Adirondacks
eastward, as a slow-moving cold front will spark scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by early this afternoon into
evening hrs. Storms will become strong to occasionally severe and
be capable of strong to at times damaging winds, small mainly sub-
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall capable of triggering
isolated areas of flash flooding. See the Hydrology section below
for more details on the localized heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should onlyout in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering MVFR stratus at RUT will burn
off to VFR within the next couple hrs. Stage will then be set for
developing heavy showers and thunderstorms along a cold front,
starting around 16z Tuesday at SLK and then advancing eastward
into PBG/VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Tried to indicate where the best window would
be for stronger storms with a 3SM +SHRA following with a 6SM
-SHRA. See specific TAFs for timing, with later amendments likely
to address more imminent risk. General weakening trend from 03z
through 12z. Winds south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest
3-6 kts late in the TAF period.

Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto/SLW
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KBTV 281107
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
707 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 706 AM EDT Tuesday...No changes to the forecast except to
account for current observations. Radar shows some light showers
already being observed across southern St. Lawrence County with
some stubborn lower stratus across southeast VT. In between is
mostly sunny skies, though these will gradually begin to fill in
as cumulus begin to develop. Cold front as of 630 AM essentially
still resides along the St. Lawrence River south to just east of
Rochester NY and will slowly advance east. Latest HRRR and 06z
runs of the BTV-4 and BTV-6 WRFs all continue to point to an
active afternoon and evening, so I`ve made no changes to PoPs or
Wx. Temps should keep climbing several degrees from relatively
mild early-morning lows, but will eventually be curbed by greater
cloud cover and developing showers/thunderstorms. Highs upper 70s
to lower/mid 80s appear on track.

Previous discussion from 355 AM follows...

Active Tuesday is in store for a large part of the North Country,
particularly focusing on an area from the Northern Adirondacks
eastward, as a slow-moving cold front will spark scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by early this afternoon into
evening hrs. Storms will become strong to occasionally severe and
be capable of strong to at times damaging winds, small mainly sub-
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall capable of triggering
isolated areas of flash flooding. See the Hydrology section below
for more details on the localized heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash floodi
00004000
ng can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should onlyout in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering MVFR stratus at RUT will burn
off to VFR within the next couple hrs. Stage will then be set for
developing heavy showers and thunderstorms along a cold front,
starting around 16z Tuesday at SLK and then advancing eastward
into PBG/VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Tried to indicate where the best window would
be for stronger storms with a 3SM +SHRA following with a 6SM
-SHRA. See specific TAFs for timing, with later amendments likely
to address more imminent risk. General weakening trend from 03z
through 12z. Winds south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest
3-6 kts late in the TAF period.

Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KBTV 281107
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
707 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 706 AM EDT Tuesday...No changes to the forecast except to
account for current observations. Radar shows some light showers
already being observed across southern St. Lawrence County with
some stubborn lower stratus across southeast VT. In between is
mostly sunny skies, though these will gradually begin to fill in
as cumulus begin to develop. Cold front as of 630 AM essentially
still resides along the St. Lawrence River south to just east of
Rochester NY and will slowly advance east. Latest HRRR and 06z
runs of the BTV-4 and BTV-6 WRFs all continue to point to an
active afternoon and evening, so I`ve made no changes to PoPs or
Wx. Temps should keep climbing several degrees from relatively
mild early-morning lows, but will eventually be curbed by greater
cloud cover and developing showers/thunderstorms. Highs upper 70s
to lower/mid 80s appear on track.

Previous discussion from 355 AM follows...

Active Tuesday is in store for a large part of the North Country,
particularly focusing on an area from the Northern Adirondacks
eastward, as a slow-moving cold front will spark scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by early this afternoon into
evening hrs. Storms will become strong to occasionally severe and
be capable of strong to at times damaging winds, small mainly sub-
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall capable of triggering
isolated areas of flash flooding. See the Hydrology section below
for more details on the localized heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should onlyout in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering MVFR stratus at RUT will burn
off to VFR within the next couple hrs. Stage will then be set for
developing heavy showers and thunderstorms along a cold front,
starting around 16z Tuesday at SLK and then advancing eastward
into PBG/VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Tried to indicate where the best window would
be for stronger storms with a 3SM +SHRA following with a 6SM
-SHRA. See specific TAFs for timing, with later amendments likely
to address more imminent risk. General weakening trend from 03z
through 12z. Winds south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest
3-6 kts late in the TAF period.

Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KALY 281047
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms,
00004000
 which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning.
Convection will develop across the area impacting the TAFs sites
this afternoon and evening as cold front approaches and gradually
crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection will initiate by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours and the
evening hours. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and this
will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew points in
the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The primary threat
will be strong to damaging winds gusts along with locally heavy
rainfall.

Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at
KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds today with gusts into the teens at KALB during
the afternoon. Winds will become light tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 281047
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning.
Convection will develop across the area impacting the TAFs sites
this afternoon and evening as cold front approaches and gradually
crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection will initiate by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours and the
evening hours. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and this
will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew points in
the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The primary threat
will be strong to damaging winds gusts along with locally heavy
rainfall.

Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at
KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds today with gusts into the teens at KALB during
the afternoon. Winds will become light tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 281011
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
611 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold f
00004000
ront that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 281011
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
611 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280854
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
454 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward a
00004000
cross Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Active Tuesday is in store for a large
part of the North Country, particularly focusing on an area from
the Northern Adirondacks eastward, as a slow-moving cold front
will spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by
early this afternoon into evening hrs. Storms will become strong
to occasionally severe and be capable of strong to at times
damaging winds, small mainly sub-severe hail, and locally heavy
rainfall capable of triggering isolated areas of flash flooding.
See the Hydrology section below for more details on the localized
heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should onlyout in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Some MVFR stratus has advected in
southeast flow at RUT but otherwise VFR conditions across the
terminals. Expect the stratus at RUT to be generally short-lived
as low-level flow becomes more southerly. Fog isn`t likely as
winds will be strong enough to preclude. Winds south 7-12 kts
through rest of overnight.

Much more active weather then develops as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop along a cold front starting around 16z
Tuesday at SLK and then advancing slowly eastward into PBG and
the VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Weakening trend expected around 01z. Winds
south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest 3-6 kts late in the
TAF period.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...Weakening showers/storms
produce brief MVFR conditions especially for RUT and MPV but
generally VFR elsewhere.

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280854
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
454 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Active Tuesday is in store for a large
part of the North Country, particularly focusing on an area from
the Northern Adirondacks eastward, as a slow-moving cold front
will spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by
early this afternoon into evening hrs. Storms will become strong
to occasionally severe and be capable of strong to at times
damaging winds, small mainly sub-severe hail, and locally heavy
rainfall capable of triggering isolated areas of flash flooding.
See the Hydrology section below for more details on the localized
heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should onlyout in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Some MVFR stratus has advected in
southeast flow at RUT but otherwise VFR conditions across the
terminals. Expect the stratus at RUT to be generally short-lived
as low-level flow becomes more southerly. Fog isn`t likely as
winds will be strong enough to preclude. Winds south 7-12 kts
through rest of overnight.

Much more active weather then develops as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop along a cold front starting around 16z
Tuesday at SLK and then advancing slowly eastward into PBG and
the VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Weakening trend expected around 01z. Winds
south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest 3-6 kts late in the
TAF period.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...Weakening showers/storms
produce brief MVFR conditions especially for RUT and MPV but
generally VFR elsewhere.

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KALY 280834
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
434 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will 
00004000
then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 280834
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
434 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

T
00004000
he latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280758
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Active Tuesday is in store for a large
part of the North Country, particularly focusing on an area from
the Northern Adirondacks eastward, as a slow-moving cold front
will spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by
early this afternoon into evening hrs. Storms will become strong
to occasionally severe and be capable of strong to at times
damaging winds, small mainly sub-severe hail, and locally heavy
rainfall capable of triggering isolated areas of flash flooding.
See the Hydrology section below for more details on the localized
heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should onlyout in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Some MVFR stratus has advected in
southeast flow at RUT but otherwise VFR conditions across the
terminals. Expect the stratus at RUT to be generally short-lived
as low-level flow becomes more southerly. Fog isn`t likely as
winds will be strong enough to preclude. Winds south 7-12 kts
through rest of overnight.

Much more active weather then develops as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop along a cold front starting around 16z
Tuesday at SLK and then advancing slowly eastward into PBG and
the VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Weakening trend expected around 01z. Winds
south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest 3-6 kts late in the
TAF period.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...Weakening showers/storms
produce brief MVFR conditions especially for RUT and MPV but
generally VFR elsewhere.

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto

000
FXUS61 KALY 280736
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to deve
00004000
lop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 280736
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 280551
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1254 AM EDT...Main change with this update was to raise
pops across a limited area of southeast Dutchess and much of
Litchfield county, as some slow moving showers will persist there
for the next few hours. Otherwise, the rest of the area should be
dry tonight due to limited forcing. Increased cloud cover as well,
as areas of stratus clouds have developed in parts of the region.
It will be a mild and muggy night with low temps and dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. C
00004000
onvection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 280551
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1254 AM EDT...Main change with this update was to raise
pops across a limited area of southeast Dutchess and much of
Litchfield county, as some slow moving showers will persist there
for the next few hours. Otherwise, the rest of the area should be
dry tonight due to limited forcing. Increased cloud cover as well,
as areas of stratus clouds have developed in parts of the region.
It will be a mild and muggy night with low temps and dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280519
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and muggy night, a slow moving cold front will move
into the North Country on Tuesday, with widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity expected. The strongest storms will develop from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont,
with some potentially producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail. Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper
trough swings through, but the end of the work week will see a
return of warm and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 119 AM EDT Tuesday...No significant changes to the
forecast, though did increase sky cover for a few hours in
southeast VT as low-level southerly flow has helped advect in some
of the lower stratus evident over southern New England. Think this
should generally be temporary however. Surface analysis shows cold
front/trough in the Ottawa Valley, which will be of little
consequence this evening but of greater impact for the Tuesday
forecast. Otherwise rest of the forecast remains on track for a
generally mild evening with lows mid 60s to around 70.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high press
00004000
ure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Some MVFR stratus has advected in
southeast flow at RUT but otherwise VFR conditions across the
terminals. Expect the stratus at RUT to be generally short-lived
as low-level flow becomes more southerly. Fog isn`t likely as
winds will be strong enough to preclude. Winds south 7-12 kts
through rest of overnight.

Much more active weather then develops as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop along a cold front starting around 16z
Tuesday at SLK and then advancing slowly eastward into PBG and
the VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Weakening trend expected around 01z. Winds
south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest 3-6 kts late in the
TAF period.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...Weakening showers/storms
produce brief MVFR conditions especially for RUT and MPV but
generally VFR elsewhere.

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossoming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Nash

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280519
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and muggy night, a slow moving cold front will move
into the North Country on Tuesday, with widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity expected. The strongest storms will develop from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont,
with some potentially producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail. Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper
trough swings through, but the end of the work week will see a
return of warm and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 119 AM EDT Tuesday...No significant changes to the
forecast, though did increase sky cover for a few hours in
southeast VT as low-level southerly flow has helped advect in some
of the lower stratus evident over southern New England. Think this
should generally be temporary however. Surface analysis shows cold
front/trough in the Ottawa Valley, which will be of little
consequence this evening but of greater impact for the Tuesday
forecast. Otherwise rest of the forecast remains on track for a
generally mild evening with lows mid 60s to around 70.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Some MVFR stratus has advected in
southeast flow at RUT but otherwise VFR conditions across the
terminals. Expect the stratus at RUT to be generally short-lived
as low-level flow becomes more southerly. Fog isn`t likely as
winds will be strong enough to preclude. Winds south 7-12 kts
through rest of overnight.

Much more active weather then develops as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop along a cold front starting around 16z
Tuesday at SLK and then advancing slowly eastward into PBG and
the VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Weakening trend expected around 01z. Winds
south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest 3-6 kts late in the
TAF period.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...Weakening showers/storms
produce brief MVFR conditions especially for RUT and MPV but
generally VFR elsewhere.

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossoming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Nash

000
FXUS61 KALY 280454
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1254 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1254 AM EDT...Main change with this update was to raise
pops across a limited area of southeast Dutchess and much of
Litchfield county, as some slow moving showers will persist there
for the next few hours. Otherwise, the rest of the area should be
dry tonight due to limited forcing. Increased cloud cover as well,
as areas of stratus clouds have developed in parts of the region.
It will be a mild and muggy night with low temps and dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM 
000039D8
/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280238
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1038 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and muggy night, a slow moving cold front will move
into the North Country on Tuesday, with widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity expected. The strongest storms will develop from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont,
with some potentially producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail. Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper
trough swings through, but the end of the work week will see a
return of warm and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
As of 1038 PM EDT Monday...Going forecast in good shape and only
needed to match observations to keep the current conditions fresh.
Otherwise...mid-level heights fall only slightly tonight and with
prevailing south/southwest winds it should be pretty warm and
muggy with lows only ranging through the 60s to locally 70 at
KBTV, and dewpoints holding just a couple degrees cooler. Can`t
rule out some fog in the more sheltered hollows where winds could
decouple, but due to the expected limited areal coverage have not
mentioned it in the official forecast.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected
through the period with potential MVFR ceilings at KRUT/KSLK
tomorrow afternoon during period of passing showers. Gusty
surface winds due to passing trof are weakening and will go light
and variable overnight before becoming southerly at 50-10 knots
by mid-day tomorrow. After 12z Tuesday, a slow moving cold front
will bring widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, though
mainly from the Adirondacks eastward and after 17z. Expect periods
of MVFR to IFR visibilities due to heavy showers as they pass over
most stations tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook 00z Wednesday through Saturday...
00z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...+SHRA/TSRA likely along a
cold frontal passage, with locally strong/severe storms possible
mainly from the Champlain Valley eastward. Brief vsby/cig
reductions to MVFR/IFR possible.
12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR
showers.
00z Thursday through 12z Friday...Mainly VFR under high
pressure. Locally dense LIFR fog possible mainly at MPV/SLK 06-12Z
each night.
12z Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with chance
MVFR showers and thunderstorms along another frontal passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossoming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Lahiff/MV
HYDROLOGY...Nash

      
      

  
    
  
  
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