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000
FXUS61 KBTV 310247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS
UPDATE WERE TO DELAY THE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH VERMONT. CURRENT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTERD. I MADE THE CHANGES TO THE TEMPS
AND TRENDED THAT INTO THE FUTURE. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE COLDER REGIONS AND AT ELEVATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINING IN ALOFT EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
THIS DRYING ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE
LAMOILLE, WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY
YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS
UPDATE WERE TO DELAY THE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH VERMONT. CURRENT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTERD. I MADE THE CHANGES TO THE TEMPS
AND TRENDED THAT INTO THE FUTURE. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE COLDER REGIONS AND AT ELEVATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINING IN ALOFT EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
THIS DRYING ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE
LAMOILLE, WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY
YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS
UPDATE WERE TO DELAY THE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH VERMONT. CURRENT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTERD. I MADE THE CHANGES TO THE TEMPS
AND TRENDED THAT INTO THE FUTURE. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE COLDER REGIONS AND AT ELEVATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINING IN ALOFT EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
THIS DRYING ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE
LAMOILLE, WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY
YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS
UPDATE WERE TO DELAY THE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH VERMONT. CURRENT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTERD. I MADE THE CHANGES TO THE TEMPS
AND TRENDED THAT INTO THE FUTURE. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE COLDER REGIONS AND AT ELEVATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINING IN ALOFT EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
THIS DRYING ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE
LAMOILLE, WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY
YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW

000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BAC
00004000
K TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDG
00004000
ING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS 
000179A3
WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCPETION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CALM/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING
ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE,
WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN
THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED
A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 302057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WE HAVE HAD SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 302057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WE HAVE HAD SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 302057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WE HAVE HAD SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 302057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WE HAVE HAD SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO SUGGEST POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED A 20 POP TO
COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS.
AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS
5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO SUGGEST POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED A 20 POP TO
COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS.
AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS
5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE 
00004000
AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS O
00004000
F THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST A
00004000
ND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROS
00004000
S PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 301722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 301722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSER
00004000
VED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301459
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD...AND
MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES. HAVE MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...YIELDING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SW-W 5-8 MPH WITH DEEPER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301459
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD...AND
MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES. HAVE MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...YIELDING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SW-W 5-8 MPH WITH DEEPER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 301347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM I-90
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. RADARS NOW INDICATED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS DISTURBED
WEATHER WAS THE RESULT OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...STARTING POPS A LITTLE
SOONER DUE TO ACTUAL COVERAGE. THOUGHT ABOUT LOWERING
TEMPERATURES MORE...BUT STILL POSSIBLE SOME BREAKS COULD RAISE
TEMPS UP TO ADVERTISED LEVELS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY..EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA). THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 301347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM I-90
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. RADARS NOW INDICATED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS DISTURBED
WEATHER WAS THE RESULT OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...STARTING POPS A LITTLE
SOONER DUE TO ACTUAL COVERAGE. THOUGHT 
00004000
ABOUT LOWERING
TEMPERATURES MORE...BUT STILL POSSIBLE SOME BREAKS COULD RAISE
TEMPS UP TO ADVERTISED LEVELS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY..EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA). THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH
00004000
 DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
00004000
...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AS ANY RESEMBLANCE OF
BAROCLINIC LEAF THAT WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT CROSSES VERMONT AND HEIGHTS RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IR COMBINED WITH
OBS ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING,
SO GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS, SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLY PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND QUICKLY WEAKENING. NAM
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DIST
00004000
URBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 301030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMA
00004000
IN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVELY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
AS IT CROSSES VERMONT WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS SOME SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, GREATEST AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 300737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE 
00004000
WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 300737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 300737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER
00000EBE
 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UP
00004000
R
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300624
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
224 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTL
00004000
Y VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE
MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
18Z MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 300518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 300518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDA
00004000
Y AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 300518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 300518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROS
00004000
S THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR
0000334C
/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, PRODUCED BY A BIT OF WEAK
VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH. PREVAILING MID- UPR
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 300420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1220 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITE
00004000
S TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 300420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1220 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 300420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1220 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS
00004000
 DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1106 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1103 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR ECHOS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY VIRGA AS MOST OF THE ECHOS AREN`T BEING REPORTED AS PRECIP.
THUS I`LL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT THEN THE REST OF THE EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE REST OF
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS EXPECT THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL STAY ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP
OF THIS AS BOTH SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF
THE 700MB TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY
STAY IN THE NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1106 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1103 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR ECHOS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY VIRGA AS MOST OF THE ECHOS AREN`T BEING REPORTED AS PRECIP.
THUS I`LL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT THEN THE REST OF THE EVENING WILL BE DRY. THE REST OF
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS EXPECT THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL STAY ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP
OF THIS AS BOTH SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF
THE 700MB TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY
STAY IN THE NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 300212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHILE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR E
00004000
VEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 300212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...BUT THESE DON/T LOOK TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IT SHOULD
BE DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY AREAS
WHILE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS EXPECT
THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. BASED
ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY
ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP OF THIS AS BOTH
SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH
DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY STAY IN THE
NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TER
00004000
MS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS EXPECT
THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. BASED
ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY
ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP OF THIS AS BOTH
SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH
DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY STAY IN THE
NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS EXPECT
THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. BASED
ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY
ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP OF THIS AS BOTH
SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH
DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY STAY IN THE
NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS EXPECT
THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. BASED
ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY
ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP OF THIS AS BOTH
SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH
DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY STAY IN THE
NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE
A GOOD EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT
700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY
INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY
SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING
MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH 
00004000
JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 292344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 744 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NORTHERN AREAS TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...AS THE DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE
REGION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL EVEN INCREASE IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR VALLEY AREAS WHILE THE
CLOUD COVER IN ABSENT OR THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 292344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 744 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NORTHERN AREAS TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...AS THE DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE
REGION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL EVEN INCREASE IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR VALLEY AREAS WHILE THE
CLOUD COVER IN ABSENT OR THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE
00004000
 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100
WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS
HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH
CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST
FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON
BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT
14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z
MON-00Z TUE.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIG
00004000
H
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILI
00004000
NG OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
00004000
 GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
C
00004000
ONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 292018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...ANOTHER  NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WERE SOME CU AND CI.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND APPROXIMATE TRAJECTORIES...
THINKING THERE WAS ACTUALLY SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE MASSIVE FOREST FIRES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS SMOKE HAS ANY BEARING ON
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE DAYS TO COME...BUT EITHER WAY...ITS
EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EVENINGWITH ANY SHOWERS...
THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER...
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY). DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
BUT GENERALLY WERE IN THE UPPER 50S...STILL ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. (IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING). HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT BUYING THIS SOLUTION
SINCE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINED OVERHEAD.

WE DO THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...THAT IS ACTUALLY
HOW WE SKETCHED IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THAN PERHAPS PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED WE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
ON OUR THINKING OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WE CONFIDE IT TO THE MOST
PREVALENT VALLEYS AND JUST CALL IT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HUGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE
LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE WARM MAV
GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE JUST KEPT PATHCY FOG
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER.

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50
00004000
S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES. ANY FOG OR STRATUS NOW
LONG GONE. SHALLOW DIURNAL CU WAS SEEN ON OUR VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE.
WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE DO GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. AFTER
TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB...SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ALONG WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1
00001C2C
45 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN...THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES. ANY FOG OR STRATUS NOW
LONG GONE. SHALLOW DIURNAL CU WAS SEEN ON OUR VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE.
WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE DO GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. AFTER
TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB...SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ALONG WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT PASSES OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR
A PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. A CEILING OF AROUND 5K IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE FLOW SHOULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT SATURDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT LATE SUMMER AFTERNOON
IN PROGRESS. THIN MID- UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD
AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN NY AND VT
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH VALLEY
CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 
00004000
10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. ALSO...SEE SEE LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE SHORES OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN (PBG CURRENTLY SE@12KTS). A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MI
00004000
D-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY T
00004000
HROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
00004000
 WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN
NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH
VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 291434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF REVEALING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S.
00004000
 WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED
AND BURNED OFF...NOW VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 291434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF REVEALING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED
AND BURNED OFF...NOW VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 291434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF REVEALING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED
AND BURNED OFF...NOW VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 291434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF REVEALING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S
00004000
 TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE
50S. WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED
AND BURNED OFF...NOW VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BAC
0000378A
K-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 291032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.

ANY PATCHY FOG AT KPSF/KGFL WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z-
13Z/SATURDAY. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WE
00004000
EKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 291032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.

ANY PATCHY FOG AT KPSF/KGFL WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z-
13Z/SATURDAY. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE DURING THE
DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5-6 KFT. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP BY THE AFTN
HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12-20 KFT. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME THIN SPOTS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 05Z/SUN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY FOG AND
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 290930
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 290930
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDIT
00004000
IONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR 
00004000
NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 290731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
331 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 290731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
331 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGE
00004000
S AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 290731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
331 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 290731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
331 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STILL REMAINING
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CAP ANY CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON RISING INTO
THE MID 60S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SOMETIME IN THE
THU-FRI TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL OFFER THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS FOR TUE-THU...WITH
SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID
90S FOR VALLEY AREAS...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WED-THU AM...WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOLER FOR FRI...DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK FRONT SETTLES NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARINE MODIFIED
AIR MASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. FOR
NOW...STILL INDICATED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI AM MINS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KPOU/KALB...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...ESP
BY THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT 20 KFT.
S-SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING...AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-WED: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290611
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT SATURDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS THE ONLY CHANGING
PARAMETER THIS MORNING. RIDGING CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
FAVORABLE AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE
WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO
SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290611
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT SATURDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS THE ONLY CHANGING
PARAMETER THIS MORNING. RIDGING CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
FAVORABLE AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORT
00004000
HEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE
WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO
SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290611
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT SATURDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS THE ONLY CHANGING
PARAMETER THIS MORNING. RIDGING CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
FAVORABLE AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE
WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO
SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290611
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT SATURDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS THE ONLY CHANGING
PARAMETER THIS MORNING. RIDGING CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
FAVORABLE AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE
WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO
SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290611
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE
THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT SATURDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS THE ONLY CHANGING
PARAMETER THIS MORNING. RIDGING CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
FAVORABLE AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID-UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY
AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE
WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO
SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB
TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE
HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS
REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE
BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

      
      

  
    
  
  
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