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0000C000000
FXUS61 KBTV 280552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS
VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY INTO THE
TERRAIN. PER SHORT TERM MODELS AND TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN NY SLIDES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR KPOU
WHERE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OVERNIGHT A BIT LOWER WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY INTO THE
TERRAIN. PER SHORT TERM MODELS AND TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN NY SLIDES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR KPOU
WHERE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OVERNIGHT A BIT LOWER WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY INTO THE
TERRAIN. PER SHORT TERM MODELS AND TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN NY SLIDES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR KPOU
WHERE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OVERNIGHT A BIT LOWER WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY INTO THE
TERRAIN. PER SHORT TERM MODELS AND TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN NY SLIDES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD SUNRIS
00004000
E.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR KPOU
WHERE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OVERNIGHT A BIT LOWER WHICH IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...SOME LINGERING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ANY
SNOW SHOWER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE. KGFL HAS
EVEN BEEN SEEING SOME IFR VSBYS...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS THERE AS WELL.  BY LATE TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ACROSS
THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS TIME.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE VALLEY SITES...WITH A
WESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5 KTS AT KPSF.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN AROUND 3500-5000
FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A WARM FRONT
STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DI
00008000
STURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. QPF LIGHT WITH
ONLY NOMINAL LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND
DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF
RECENT 3-HOURLY RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS
LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR
SO...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A
FLUFFY 2 OR 3 INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIE
00004000
S...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RATHER NEBULOUS SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL NORTHEASTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOWS AND/OR PERIODS OF FLURRIES. QPF LIGHT WITH ONLY NOMINAL LIFT
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND DECENT MOISTURE
DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF RECENT 3-HOURLY
RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS LOOKING AT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A FLUFFY 2 OR 3
INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 280225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RATHER NEBULOUS SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL NORTHEASTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOWS AND/OR PERIODS OF FLURRIES. QPF LIGHT WITH ONLY NOMINAL LIFT
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE BLOCKED FLOW AND DECENT MOISTURE
DEPTH. THIS IS QUITE APPARENT UPON PERUSAL OF RECENT 3-HOURLY
RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THUS LOOKING AT
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT WHERE PERHAPS A FLUFFY 2 OR 3
INCHES MAY FALL HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED THERMAL ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00
00004000
Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

000
FXUS61 KALY 280216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
916 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN DECREASE POPS LATER ON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS...ALTHOUGH EVEN LOCALLY UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THUS SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED IN THE
ZONES FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST. MOST OF
THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE ON
AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 280216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
916 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN DECREASE POPS LATER ON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS...ALTHOUGH EVEN LOCALLY UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THUS SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED IN THE
ZONES FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST. MOST OF
THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE ON
AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD
00004000
 AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 280216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
916 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN DECREASE POPS LATER ON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS...ALTHOUGH EVEN LOCALLY UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THUS SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED IN THE
ZONES FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST. MOST OF
THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE ON
AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 280216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
916 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN DECREASE POPS LATER ON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS...ALTHOUGH EVEN LOCALLY UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THUS SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED IN THE
ZONES FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST. MOST OF
THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE ON
AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SIN
00004000
GLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 272350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 272350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NO
00002264
RTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W
ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL
IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE
ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE
BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND
-14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND
0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP
ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE
WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W
ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL
IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE
ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE
BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND
-14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND
0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP
ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE
WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AN
00004000
D SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W
ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL
IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE
ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE
BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND
-14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND
0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP
ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE
WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W
ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL
IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE
ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE
BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND
-14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND
0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP
ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE
WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH 
00004000
OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AFTER 12Z...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE EXITED WITH
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOME SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SOME
CLEARING. ANY LINGERING MVFR SHOULD BECOME VFR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AOA 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272320
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W
ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL
IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE
ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE
BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND
-14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND
0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP
ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE
WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL
WINDS AND CLOUD
00004000
S...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KALY 272314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 272314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S T
00004000
O M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 272314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 272314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN 
00004000
SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 272303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 272303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO
00004000
 AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 272303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 272303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
WHICH ARE ALSO TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL PA AND ANOTHER LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST OF THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN T
00004000
HE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 272121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 421 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A PIECE
OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 272121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 421 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A PIECE
OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR
00004000
 TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 272121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 421 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A PIECE
OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 272121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 421 PM EST...A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A PIECE
OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS EXPECTED TO FORM
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS. SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED HERE.
MOST THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL
HAVE ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING TUES
00004000
DAY.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH
SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL IMPACT OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE ACRS OUR FA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM
SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO
NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY
AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY
LOW BTWN 0.40 AND 0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION.
ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS
THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK
LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH
SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL IMPACT OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE ACRS OUR FA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM
SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO
NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY
AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY
LOW BTWN 0.40 AND 0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION.
ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS
THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK
LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 0C BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN 
00004000
THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KALY 271807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 271807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN 
00004000
SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 271807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 271807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTE
00004000
D EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KALY 271755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT 
00004000
CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1228 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1228 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.B
00004000
TV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1228 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1228 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW AND LIMITED SUNSHINE HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPS STRUGGLING IN THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR
30F THIS AFTN. THINKING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TO CRNT OBS WL WORK
FOR THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE REVIEWED THE LATEST 12Z
DATA AND WL BE INCREASING POPS TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACRS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DACKS/GREEN MTNS AND THE
EASTERN CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 271459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS SHOW THAT NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND HAVE RAISED POPS THERE
TO LIKELY. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER UPDATES TO SEE IF WE NEED HIGHER
POPS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SH
00004000
OULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY

000
FXUS61 KALY 271459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS SHOW THAT NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND HAVE RAISED POPS THERE
TO LIKELY. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER UPDATES TO SEE IF WE NEED HIGHER
POPS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL 
00004000
CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETU
00003DAF
RN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EST THURSDAY...HAVE DROPPED REMAINDER OF
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR VERMONT WITH LATEST
UPDATE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER PAST FEW HOURS...AND LATEST DATA INDICATES JUST SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
THIS MORNING. LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12
00004000
 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY

000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY

000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY 
00004000
CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY

000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNI
00004000
NG. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DIS
00004000
TURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 271135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 271135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SN
00004000
OW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 271135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 271135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGR
00001AC6
EEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THE
00004000
N PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY
00004000
 STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 270925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER I
00004000
SSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 270925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 270925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL
00004000
 KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 270925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
00004000
 A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 270709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALL HEADLINES FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE
BEEN CANCELED AT OF 07Z /2AM EST/.

REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN A QUICK DISSIPATION OF SNOW INTENSITY
AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS WAS CLEARING WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AT THIS TIME.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ARE UPSTREAM WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THANKSGIVING WEATHER THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN
THE NEXT UPDATE.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH
TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
00004000
 WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 270709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALL HEADLINES FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE
BEEN CANCELED AT OF 07Z /2AM EST/.

REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN A QUICK DISSIPATION OF SNOW INTENSITY
AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS WAS CLEARING WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AT THIS TIME.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ARE UPSTREAM WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THANKSGIVING WEATHER THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN
THE NEXT UPDATE.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH
TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 270558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 
00004000
AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER STORM
00002C52
 WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL

00004000
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST T
00003CB9
O EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
947 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 947 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY,
NY INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING
EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF
RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A
WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING
EFFECTS HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL
ESTIMATES SHOWING A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WHERE TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ESSEX, NY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2
INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW
PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING/LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING
AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL
ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 270222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADV
00004000
ECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LE
00004000
VEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

...THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 700 PM EST...THE OFFICE JUST CHECKED IN WITH THE CONTRACT WX
OBSERVER AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND 6.5 INCHES SO
FAR. THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS 0.55 INCHES. THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO FOR THE EVENT IS 12:1 AT ALY. HAMILTON COUNTY HAS
COME IN WITH 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS. MOST RECENTLY 6 INCHES AT
INDIAN LAKE. WE BELIEVE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WARNING. THERE
WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN THIS COUNTY RANGING FROM 3 OR 4 INCHES
OVER THE NW CORNER TO PERHAPS 10 OR 12 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE N/NE TO SOUTH OF KACK.
SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. ONE
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY INTO
FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAYBE BE A LITTLE LOWER 8-10:1 TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHICH MAY KEEP THE TOTALS DOWN A BIT
TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE /8 TO 14 INCHES/. HOWEVER...SOME
DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS HAVE BEEN COME IN FROM THE BERKSHIRES AND SRN
TACONICS SO FAR. THE JACKPOT AREA MAYBE THE BERKSHIRES...AND SRN
GREENS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST E
00004000
AST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 PM EST...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

...THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 700 PM EST...THE OFFICE JUST CHECKED IN WITH THE CONTRACT WX
OBSERVER AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND 6.5 INCHES SO
FAR. THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS 0.55 INCHES. THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO FOR THE EVENT IS 12:1 AT ALY. HAMILTON COUNTY HAS
COME IN WITH 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS. MOST RECENTLY 6 INCHES AT
INDIAN LAKE. WE BELIEVE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WARNING. THERE
WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN THIS COUNTY RANGING FROM 3 OR 4 INCHES
OVER THE NW CORNER TO PERHAPS 10 OR 12 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE N/NE TO SOUTH OF KACK.
SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. ONE
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY INTO
FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAYBE BE A LITTLE LOWER 8-10:1 TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHICH MAY KEEP THE TOTALS DOWN A BIT
TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE /8 TO 14 INCHES/. HOWEVER...SOME
DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS HAVE BEEN COME IN FROM THE BERKSHIRES AND SRN
TACONICS SO FAR. THE JACKPOT AREA MAYBE THE BERKSHIRES...AND SRN
GREENS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 PM EST...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY ST
00004000
RONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

...THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 700 PM EST...THE OFFICE JUST CHECKED IN WITH THE CONTRACT WX
OBSERVER AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND 6.5 INCHES SO
FAR. THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS 0.55 INCHES. THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO FOR THE EVENT IS 12:1 AT ALY. HAMILTON COUNTY HAS
COME IN WITH 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS. MOST RECENTLY 6 INCHES AT
INDIAN LAKE. WE BELIEVE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WARNING. THERE
WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN THIS COUNTY RANGING FROM 3 OR 4 INCHES
OVER THE NW CORNER TO PERHAPS 10 OR 12 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE N/NE TO SOUTH OF KACK.
SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. ONE
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY INTO
FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAYBE BE A LITTLE LOWER 8-10:1 TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHICH MAY KEEP THE TOTALS DOWN A BIT
TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE /8 TO 14 INCHES/. HOWEVER...SOME
DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS HAVE BEEN COME IN FROM THE BERKSHIRES AND SRN
TACONICS SO FAR. THE JACKPOT AREA MAYBE THE BERKSHIRES...AND SRN
GREENS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 PM EST...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

...THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 700 PM EST...THE OFFICE JUST CHECKED IN WITH THE CONTRACT WX
OBSERVER AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND 6.5 INCHES SO
FAR. THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS 0.55 INCHES. THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO FOR THE EVENT IS 12:1 AT ALY. HAMILTON COUNTY HAS
COME IN WITH 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS. MOST RECENTLY 6 INCHES AT
INDIAN LAKE. WE BELIEVE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WARNING. THERE
WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN THIS COUNTY RANGING FROM 3 OR 4 INCHES
OVER THE NW CORNER TO PERHAPS 10 OR 12 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE N/NE TO SOUTH OF KACK.
SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. ONE
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY INTO
FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAYBE BE A LITTLE LOWER 8-10:1 TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHICH MAY KEEP THE TOTALS DOWN A BIT
TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE /8 TO 14 INCHES/. HOWEVER...SOME
DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS HAVE BEEN COME IN FROM THE BERKSHIRES AND SRN
TACONICS SO FAR. THE JACK
00004000
POT AREA MAYBE THE BERKSHIRES...AND SRN
GREENS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 PM EST...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION... GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF
THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO 
00004000
SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION... GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF
THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARTIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDIITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED
WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY
NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING
MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT
NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS 700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS
SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO
AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE
NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS

00004000
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARTIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDIITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED
WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY
NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING
MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT
NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS 700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS
SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO
AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE
NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 551 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NE TO
SOUTH OF KACK. SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA. ONE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY
INTO FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.
SOME TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE COME IN THERE. FOR
EXAMPLE...COLUMBIA CENTER HAD 6.5 INCHES AROUND 4 PM. EXPECTING
5-10 INCHES ACROSS SRN HERKIMER CTY...WITH PERHAPS 6-12 INCHES
FROM ILION...AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTH AND EAST.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THRO
00004000
UGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 551 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NE TO
SOUTH OF KACK. SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA. ONE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY
INTO FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.
SOME TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE COME IN THERE. FOR
EXAMPLE...COLUMBIA CENTER HAD 6.5 INCHES AROUND 4 PM. EXPECTING
5-10 INCHES ACROSS SRN HERKIMER CTY...WITH PERHAPS 6-12 INCHES
FROM ILION...AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTH AND EAST.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 551 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NE TO
SOUTH OF KACK. SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA. ONE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY
INTO FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.
SOME TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE COME IN THERE. FOR
EXAMPLE...COLUMBIA CENTER HAD 6.5 INCHES AROUND 4 PM. EXPECTING
5-10 INCHES ACROSS SRN HERKIMER CTY...WITH PERHAPS 6-12 INCHES
FROM ILION...AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTH AND EAST.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z..
00004000
.BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 551 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NE TO
SOUTH OF KACK. SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA. ONE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY
INTO FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.
SOME TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE COME IN THERE. FOR
EXAMPLE...COLUMBIA CENTER HAD 6.5 INCHES AROUND 4 PM. EXPECTING
5-10 INCHES ACROSS SRN HERKIMER CTY...WITH PERHAPS 6-12 INCHES
FROM ILION...AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTH AND EAST.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 262252
AFDALY

AREA FOR
00004000
ECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
552 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

...THIS UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 551 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NE TO
SOUTH OF KACK. SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA. ONE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY
INTO FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.
SOME TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE COME IN THERE. FOR
EXAMPLE...COLUMBIA CENTER HAD 6.5 INCHES AROUND 4 PM. EXPECTING
5-10 INCHES ACROSS SRN HERKIMER CTY...WITH PERHAPS 6-12 INCHES
FROM ILION...AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTH AND EAST.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 262135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 433 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 100 MILES S/SE
KACY NJ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHERE THE MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE 4-5 HPA/3 HRS INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL TRACK TO THE WEST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASE SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SR GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS SAID
AND DONE. WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES IF SOME HIGHER TOTALS COME IN WITH THE BAND CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THOSE AREAS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RA
00004000
IN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION TONIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA/IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 262135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 433 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 100 MILES S/SE
KACY NJ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHERE THE MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE 4-5 HPA/3 HRS INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL TRACK TO THE WEST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASE SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SR GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS SAID
AND DONE. WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES IF SOME HIGHER TOTALS COME IN WITH THE BAND CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THOSE AREAS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION TONIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA/IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGH
0000079B
T/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON 
00004000
MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN
00004000
 ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

00004000

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1247 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1247 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE`RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST
00004000
 THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 261732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN FULTON...AND
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A WARNING NOW.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 1203 PM EST...THE SNOW SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY
FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE NRN REACHES OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS HAVE SET UP OVER ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SNOW RATES COMING IN A 1-2 INCH/HR CLIP
OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FEEL
CONFIDENT A SINGLE MESOSCALE BAND MAY FORM BASED ON THE CSTAR
RESEARCH WITH SUNYA OVER THE PAST DECADE. A POTENT MULTI-BAND MAY
FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW RATES REVVING UP TO 3 INCHES
OR SO AN HOUR. NAM CROSS-SECTIONS OF FGEN/EPV/OMEGA/RH/SNOW GROWTH
ZONE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SINGLE BAND EVOLUTION. TREMENDOUS
QG OMEGA HAS SET UP IN THE H700-500 LAYER ON THE N/NE SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING CYCLONE. MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE CLOSE
TO 5-6 HPA/3 HRS N/NE OF THE SFC WAVE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE
DELMARVA AT 1600 UTC. EXPECTING THIS STORM TO TRACK INSIDE THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...JUST EAST OF MONTAUK...AND NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING.

CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE SARATOGA REGION COULD GET INTO
THE SWEET SPOT WITH CLOSE TO DOUBLE DIGITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HAVE
KEPT 8-16 INCH RANGE NOW. FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE STAFF TO UPGRADE
NRN FULTON AND NRN WARREN TO WARNINGS FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
BASED ON A SLIGHT NW JOG OF THE THREE QUARTER INCH QPF LINE WITH
THE NAM/GFS. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...LESS MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT WITH 8-14 INCHES NOW FORECASTED.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THERE MAX VALUES IN THE MID TO U30S...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTOE H20S TO L30S.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING OF WINDS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/LITCHFIELD HILLS. IN THESE
AREAS...GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LUCKILY...THE SNOW
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WET IN CONSISTENCY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...SO BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO BAD
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...BANDS OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER IN
INTENSITY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2
AM...ALTHOUGH IT COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO SOME MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY...AGAIN MAINLY 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT DRIER IN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT...SOME SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

FOR THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONE MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY WITH THOSE HIGHER POPS INTO
THE TERRAIN.  AS THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  IN
ITS WAKE THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES
WILL LEAVE US UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE
SKY COVER. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT HELP TOO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES
AS H850 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN -10C TO -13C.  HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER HALF OF THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT LONG TERM DISCUSSION...LONG TERM PERIOD
OF THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM
AIR RETURNING BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS FAVOR A GRADUAL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND.  THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL FAVOR A REBOUND IN THE
THERMAL PROFILES...HOWEVER...THE ISSUE WILL BE A GRADUAL MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.  PRECIP TYPES WILL VARY DUE TO THE THERMAL COLUMN AND
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES TO WARRANT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  WE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WHICH WERE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF-MOS/GMOS.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE DAY OF TRANSITION AS
THAT SHARP COLD FRONT/ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  IN FACT...TRENDS IN THE SHOWALTER INDEX
ARE GETTING LOWER WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE TRENDS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.  REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION...THIS
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...TO -10C TO
-15C MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND M-U30S FOR THE TERRAIN.  MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES THANKS TO
1040MB SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE TEENS AND MID 20S AND WITH SOME
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE LOWER.

TUESDAY...CONSENSUS FAVORS A LARGE 1040MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
UPSTATE NY WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD AMOUNT OF EARLY DECEMBER SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND WILL RESULT SOME SNOW MELT AND RIPENING OF SNOW PACK. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 261732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN FULTON...AND
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A WARNING NOW.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 1203 PM EST...THE SNOW SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY
FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE NRN REACHES OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS HAVE SET UP OVER ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SNOW RATES COMING IN A 1-2 INCH/HR CLIP
OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FEEL
CONFIDENT A SINGLE MESOSCALE BAND MAY FORM BASED ON THE CSTAR
RESEARCH WITH SUNYA OVER THE PAST DECADE. A POTENT MULTI-BAND MAY
FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW RATES REVVING UP TO 3 INCHES
OR SO AN HOUR. NAM CROSS-SECTIONS OF FGEN/EPV/OMEGA/RH/SNOW GROWTH
ZONE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SINGLE BAND EVOLUTION. TREMENDOUS
QG OMEGA HAS SET UP IN THE H700-500 LAYER ON THE N/NE SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING CYCLONE. MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE CLOSE
TO 5-6 HPA/3 HRS N/NE OF THE SFC WAVE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE
DELMARVA AT 1600 UTC. EXPECTING THIS STORM TO TRACK INSIDE THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...JUST EAST OF MONTAUK...AND NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING.

CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE SARATOGA REGION COULD GET INTO
THE SWEET SPOT WITH CLOSE TO DOUBLE DIGITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HAVE
KEPT 8-16 INCH RANGE NOW. FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE STAFF TO UPGRADE
NRN FULTON AND NRN WARREN TO WARNINGS FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
BASED ON A SLIGHT NW JOG OF THE THREE QUARTER INCH QPF LINE WITH
THE NAM/GFS. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...LESS MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT WITH 8-14 INCHES NOW FORECASTED.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THERE MAX VALUES IN THE MID TO U30S...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTOE H20S TO L30S.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING OF WINDS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/LITCHFIELD HILLS. IN THESE
AREAS...GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LUCKILY...THE SNOW
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WET IN CONSISTENCY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...SO BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO BAD
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...BANDS OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER IN
INTENSITY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2
AM...ALTHOUGH IT COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO SOME MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY...AGAIN MAINLY 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT DRIER IN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT...SOME SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

FOR THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONE MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY WITH THOSE HIGHER POPS INTO
THE TERRAIN.  AS THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  IN
ITS WAKE THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES
WILL LEAVE US UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE
SKY COVER. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT HELP TOO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES
AS H850 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN -10C TO -13C.  HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER HALF OF THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT LONG TERM DISCUSSION...LONG TERM PERIOD
OF THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM
AIR RETURNING BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS FAVOR A GRADUAL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND.  THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL FAVOR A REBOUND IN THE
THERMAL PROFILES...HOWEVER...THE ISSUE WILL BE A GRADUAL MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.  PRECIP TYPES WILL VARY DUE TO THE THERMAL COLUMN AND
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES TO WARRANT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  WE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WHICH WERE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF-MOS/GMOS.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE DAY OF TRANSITION AS
THAT SHARP COLD FRONT/ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  IN FACT...TRENDS IN THE SHOWALTER INDEX
ARE GETTING LOWER WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE TRENDS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.  REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION...THIS
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...TO -10C TO
-15C MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND M-U30S FOR THE TERRAIN.  MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...THE
COMBINATI
00004000
ON OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES THANKS TO
1040MB SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE TEENS AND MID 20S AND WITH SOME
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE LOWER.

TUESDAY...CONSENSUS FAVORS A LARGE 1040MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
UPSTATE NY WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD AMOUNT OF EARLY DECEMBER SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND WILL RESULT SOME SNOW MELT AND RIPENING OF SNOW PACK. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 261732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN FULTON...AND
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A WARNING NOW.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 1203 PM EST...THE SNOW SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY
FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE NRN REACHES OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS HAVE SET UP OVER ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SNOW RATES COMING IN A 1-2 INCH/HR CLIP
OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FEEL
CONFIDENT A SINGLE MESOSCALE BAND MAY FORM BASED ON THE CSTAR
RESEARCH WITH SUNYA OVER THE PAST DECADE. A POTENT MULTI-BAND MAY
FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW RATES REVVING UP TO 3 INCHES
OR SO AN HOUR. NAM CROSS-SECTIONS OF FGEN/EPV/OMEGA/RH/SNOW GROWTH
ZONE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SINGLE BAND EVOLUTION. TREMENDOUS
QG OMEGA HAS SET UP IN THE H700-500 LAYER ON THE N/NE SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING CYCLONE. MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE CLOSE
TO 5-6 HPA/3 HRS N/NE OF THE SFC WAVE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE
DELMARVA AT 1600 UTC. EXPECTING THIS STORM TO TRACK INSIDE THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...JUST EAST OF MONTAUK...AND NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING.

CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE SARATOGA REGION COULD GET INTO
THE SWEET SPOT WITH CLOSE TO DOUBLE DIGITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HAVE
KEPT 8-16 INCH RANGE NOW. FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE STAFF TO UPGRADE
NRN FULTON AND NRN WARREN TO WARNINGS FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
BASED ON A SLIGHT NW JOG OF THE THREE QUARTER INCH QPF LINE WITH
THE NAM/GFS. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...LESS MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT WITH 8-14 INCHES NOW FORECASTED.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THERE MAX VALUES IN THE MID TO U30S...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTOE H20S TO L30S.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING OF WINDS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/LITCHFIELD HILLS. IN THESE
AREAS...GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LUCKILY...THE SNOW
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WET IN CONSISTENCY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...SO BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO BAD
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...BANDS OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER IN
INTENSITY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2
AM...ALTHOUGH IT COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO SOME MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY...AGAIN MAINLY 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT DRIER IN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT...SOME SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

FOR THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONE MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY WITH THOSE HIGHER POPS INTO
THE TERRAIN.  AS THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  IN
ITS WAKE THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES
WILL LEAVE US UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE
SKY COVER. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT HELP TOO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES
AS H850 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN -10C TO -13C.  HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER HALF OF THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT LONG TERM DISCUSSION...LONG TERM PERIOD
OF THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM
AIR RETURNING BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS FAVOR A GRADUAL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND.  THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL FAVOR A REBOUND IN THE
THERMAL PROFILES...HOWEVER...THE ISSUE WILL BE A GRADUAL MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.  PRECIP TYPES WILL VARY DUE TO THE THERMAL COLUMN AND
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES TO WARRANT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  WE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WHICH WERE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF-MOS/GMOS.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE DAY OF TRANSITION AS
THAT SHARP COLD FRONT/ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  IN FACT...TRENDS IN THE SHOWALTER INDEX
ARE GETTING LOWER WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE TRENDS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.  REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION...THIS
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...TO -10C TO
-15C MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND M-U30S FOR THE TERRAIN.  MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES THANKS TO
1040MB SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE TEENS AND MID 20S AND WITH SOME
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE LOWER.

TUESDAY...CONSENSUS FAVORS A LARGE 1040MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
UPSTATE NY WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD AMOUNT OF EARLY DECEMBER SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND WILL RESULT SOME SNOW MELT AND RIPENING OF SNOW PACK. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 261732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN FULTON...AND
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A WARNING NOW.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 1203 PM EST...THE SNOW SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY
FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE NRN REACHES OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS HAVE SET UP OVER ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SNOW RATES COMING IN A 1-2 INCH/HR CLIP
OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FEEL
CONFIDENT A SINGLE MESOSCALE BAND MAY FORM BASED ON THE CSTAR
RESEARCH WITH SUNYA OVER THE PAST DECADE. A POTENT MULTI-BAND MAY
FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW RATES REVVING UP TO 3 INCHES
OR SO AN HOUR. NAM CROSS-SECTIONS OF FGEN/EPV/OMEGA/RH/SNOW GROWTH
ZONE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SINGLE BAND EVOLUTION. TREMENDOUS
QG OMEGA HAS SET UP IN THE H700-500 LAYER ON THE N/NE SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING CYCLONE. MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE CLOSE
TO 5-6 HPA/3 HRS N/NE OF THE SFC WAVE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE
DELMARVA AT 1600 UTC. EXPECTING THIS STORM TO TRACK INSIDE THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...JUST EAST OF MONTAUK...AND NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING.

CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE SARATOGA REGION COULD GET INTO
THE SWEET SPOT WITH CLOSE TO DOUBLE DIGITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HAVE
KEPT 8-16 INCH RANGE NOW. FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE STAFF TO UPGRADE
NRN FULTON AND NRN WARREN TO WARNINGS FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
BASED ON A SLIGHT NW JOG OF THE THREE QUARTER INCH QPF LINE WITH
THE NAM/GFS. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...LESS MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT WITH 8-14 INCHES NOW FORECASTED.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THERE MAX VALUES IN THE MID TO U30S...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTOE H20S TO L30S.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING OF WINDS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/LITCHFIELD HILLS. IN THESE
AREAS...GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LUCKILY...THE SNOW
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WET IN CONSISTENCY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...SO BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO BAD
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...BANDS OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER IN
INTENSITY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2
AM...ALTHOUGH IT COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO SOME MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY...AGAIN MAINLY 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT DRIER IN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT...SOME SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

FOR THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...A
00004000
ND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONE MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY WITH THOSE HIGHER POPS INTO
THE TERRAIN.  AS THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  IN
ITS WAKE THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES
WILL LEAVE US UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE
SKY COVER. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT HELP TOO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES
AS H850 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN -10C TO -13C.  HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER HALF OF THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT LONG TERM DISCUSSION...LONG TERM PERIOD
OF THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM
AIR RETURNING BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS FAVOR A GRADUAL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND.  THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL FAVOR A REBOUND IN THE
THERMAL PROFILES...HOWEVER...THE ISSUE WILL BE A GRADUAL MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.  PRECIP TYPES WILL VARY DUE TO THE THERMAL COLUMN AND
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES TO WARRANT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  WE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WHICH WERE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF-MOS/GMOS.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE DAY OF TRANSITION AS
THAT SHARP COLD FRONT/ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  IN FACT...TRENDS IN THE SHOWALTER INDEX
ARE GETTING LOWER WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE TRENDS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.  REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION...THIS
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...TO -10C TO
-15C MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND M-U30S FOR THE TERRAIN.  MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES THANKS TO
1040MB SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE TEENS AND MID 20S AND WITH SOME
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE LOWER.

TUESDAY...CONSENSUS FAVORS A LARGE 1040MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
UPSTATE NY WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD AMOUNT OF EARLY DECEMBER SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND WILL RESULT SOME SNOW MELT AND RIPENING OF SNOW PACK. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 261704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1204 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN FULTON...AND
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A WARNING NOW.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 1203 PM EST...THE SNOW SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY
FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE NRN REACHES OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS HAVE SET UP OVER ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SNOW RATES COMING IN A 1-2 INCH/HR CLIP
OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FEEL
CONFIDENT A SINGLE MESOSCALE BAND MAY FORM BASED ON THE CSTAR
RESEARCH WITH SUNYA OVER THE PAST DECADE. A POTENT MULTI-BAND MAY
FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW RATES REVVING UP TO 3 INCHES
OR SO AN HOUR. NAM CROSS-SECTIONS OF FGEN/EPV/OMEGA/RH/SNOW GROWTH
ZONE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SINGLE BAND EVOLUTION. TREMENDOUS
QG OMEGA HAS SET UP IN THE H700-500 LAYER ON THE N/NE SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING CYCLONE. MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE CLOSE
TO 5-6 HPA/3 HRS N/NE OF THE SFC WAVE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE
DELMARVA AT 1600 UTC. EXPECTING THIS STORM TO TRACK INSIDE THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...JUST EAST OF MONTAUK...AND NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING.

CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE SARATOGA REGION COULD GET INTO
THE SWEET SPOT WITH CLOSE TO DOUBLE DIGITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HAVE
KEPT 8-16 INCH RANGE NOW. FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE STAFF TO UPGRADE
NRN FULTON AND NRN WARREN TO WARNINGS FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
BASED ON A SLIGHT NW JOG OF THE THREE QUARTER INCH QPF LINE WITH
THE NAM/GFS. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...LESS MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT WITH 8-14 INCHES NOW FORECASTED.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THERE MAX VALUES IN THE MID TO U30S...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTOE H20S TO L30S.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING OF WINDS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/LITCHFIELD HILLS. IN THESE
AREAS...GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LUCKILY...THE SNOW
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WET IN CONSISTENCY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...SO BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO BAD
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...BANDS OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER IN
INTENSITY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2
AM...ALTHOUGH IT COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO SOME MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY...AGAIN MAINLY 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT DRIER IN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT...SOME SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

FOR THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONE MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY WITH THOSE HIGHER POPS INTO
THE TERRAIN.  AS THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  IN
ITS WAKE THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES
WILL LEAVE US UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE
SKY COVER. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT HELP TOO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES
AS H850 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN -10C TO -13C.  HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER HALF OF THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT LONG TERM DISCUSSION...LONG TERM PERIOD
OF THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM
AIR RETURNING BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS FAVOR A GRADUAL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND.  THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL FAVOR A REBOUND IN THE
THERMAL PROFILES...HOWEVER...THE ISSUE WILL BE A GRADUAL MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.  PRECIP TYPES WILL VARY DUE TO THE THERMAL COLUMN AND
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES TO WARRANT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  WE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WHICH WERE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF-MOS/GMOS.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE DAY OF TRANSITION AS
THAT SHARP COLD FRONT/ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  IN FACT...TRENDS IN THE SHOWALTER INDEX
ARE GETTING LOWER WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE TRENDS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.  REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION...THIS
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...TO -10C TO
-15C MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND M-U30S FOR THE TERRAIN.  MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES THANKS TO
1040MB SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE TEENS AND MID 20S AND WITH SOME
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE LOWER.

TUESDAY...CONSENSUS FAVORS A LARGE 1040MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
UPSTATE NY WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD AMOUNT OF EARLY DECEMBER SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AS THERE IS A DRY
LAYER IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THAT IS TAKING TIME TO SATURATE. SO
PUSHED BACK TIMING OF SNOW BEGINNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 12Z
AND 16Z. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX IN FOR A FEW
HOURS AT KPOU AT THE ONSET BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE ALL SNOW FOR THE KALB/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
INITIALLY BE VFR/MVFR...QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO IFR BY LATE THIS
MORNING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR. SNOW WILL START TO LIGHTEN IN
INTENSITY AFTER 01Z-02Z THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND WILL RESULT SOME SNOW MELT AND RIPENING OF SNOW PACK. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 261704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1204 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN FULTON...AND
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A WARNING NOW.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 1203 PM EST...THE SNOW SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY
FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE NRN REACHES OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS HAVE SET UP OVER ERN
NY AND NEW ENG
00004000
LAND WITH SNOW RATES COMING IN A 1-2 INCH/HR CLIP
OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FEEL
CONFIDENT A SINGLE MESOSCALE BAND MAY FORM BASED ON THE CSTAR
RESEARCH WITH SUNYA OVER THE PAST DECADE. A POTENT MULTI-BAND MAY
FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW RATES REVVING UP TO 3 INCHES
OR SO AN HOUR. NAM CROSS-SECTIONS OF FGEN/EPV/OMEGA/RH/SNOW GROWTH
ZONE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SINGLE BAND EVOLUTION. TREMENDOUS
QG OMEGA HAS SET UP IN THE H700-500 LAYER ON THE N/NE SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING CYCLONE. MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE CLOSE
TO 5-6 HPA/3 HRS N/NE OF THE SFC WAVE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE
DELMARVA AT 1600 UTC. EXPECTING THIS STORM TO TRACK INSIDE THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...JUST EAST OF MONTAUK...AND NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING.

CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE SARATOGA REGION COULD GET INTO
THE SWEET SPOT WITH CLOSE TO DOUBLE DIGITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HAVE
KEPT 8-16 INCH RANGE NOW. FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE STAFF TO UPGRADE
NRN FULTON AND NRN WARREN TO WARNINGS FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
BASED ON A SLIGHT NW JOG OF THE THREE QUARTER INCH QPF LINE WITH
THE NAM/GFS. EXPECT PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...LESS MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT WITH 8-14 INCHES NOW FORECASTED.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THERE MAX VALUES IN THE MID TO U30S...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTOE H20S TO L30S.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING OF WINDS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/LITCHFIELD HILLS. IN THESE
AREAS...GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LUCKILY...THE SNOW
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WET IN CONSISTENCY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...SO BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO BAD
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...BANDS OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER IN
INTENSITY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2
AM...ALTHOUGH IT COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO SOME MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY...AGAIN MAINLY 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT DRIER IN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT...SOME SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

FOR THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONE MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY WITH THOSE HIGHER POPS INTO
THE TERRAIN.  AS THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  IN
ITS WAKE THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES
WILL LEAVE US UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE
SKY COVER. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT HELP TOO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES
AS H850 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN -10C TO -13C.  HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER HALF OF THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT LONG TERM DISCUSSION...LONG TERM PERIOD
OF THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM
AIR RETURNING BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS FAVOR A GRADUAL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND.  THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL FAVOR A REBOUND IN THE
THERMAL PROFILES...HOWEVER...THE ISSUE WILL BE A GRADUAL MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.  PRECIP TYPES WILL VARY DUE TO THE THERMAL COLUMN AND
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES TO WARRANT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  WE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WHICH WERE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF-MOS/GMOS.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE DAY OF TRANSITION AS
THAT SHARP COLD FRONT/ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  IN FACT...TRENDS IN THE SHOWALTER INDEX
ARE GETTING LOWER WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE TRENDS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.  REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION...THIS
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...TO -10C TO
-15C MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND M-U30S FOR THE TERRAIN.  MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES THANKS TO
1040MB SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE TEENS AND MID 20S AND WITH SOME
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE LOWER.

TUESDAY...CONSENSUS FAVORS A LARGE 1040MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
UPSTATE NY WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD AMOUNT OF EARLY DECEMBER SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AS THERE IS A DRY
LAYER IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THAT IS TAKING TIME TO SATURATE. SO
PUSHED BACK TIMING OF SNOW BEGINNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 12Z
AND 16Z. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX IN FOR A FEW
HOURS AT KPOU AT THE ONSET BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE ALL SNOW FOR THE KALB/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
INITIALLY BE VFR/MVFR...QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO IFR BY LATE THIS
MORNING.

SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR. SNOW WILL START TO LIGHTEN IN
INTENSITY AFTER 01Z-02Z THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND WILL RESULT SOME SNOW MELT AND RIPENING OF SNOW PACK. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261650
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1150 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.