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0000C000000
FXUS61 KBTV 271156
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAINING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 12-15Z...KMPV 13-
15Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KRUT/KMPV 14Z-
22Z...KBTV/KPBG 17Z-21Z AND KSLK 18Z-23Z.

SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6-12KTS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AROUND 25KTS BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271156
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAINING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 12-15Z...KMPV 13-
15Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KRUT/KMPV 14Z-
22Z...KBTV/KPBG 17Z-21Z AND KSLK 18Z-23Z.

SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6-12KTS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AROUND 25KTS BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 271156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE
OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL
BE MODERATE AT MOST. THE SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST...IT TIME TO DOWNGRADE THE REMAINING OF THE EASTERN
NEW YORK/S COUNTIES. RADARS INDICATING THAT THE SNOW SHIELD WAS
HAVING TROUBLED EVEN MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AS DRIER AIR
WAS HANGING TOUCH. ALSO...THE SHIELD WAS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
ONLY A FEW MORE ELEMENTS OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY...PERHAPS A FEW 7 INCH AMOUNTS
LOCALLY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING OF THE SNOW.
ALSO...DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE HARD TO MELT THE
SNOW OFF ANY OF THE ROADS.

PER COORDINATION...WE KEPT ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT FOR
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL AROUND 980 MBS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. IT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS NEARING IT. THIS MEANS THAT STORM HAS
JUST ABOUT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND IT IS PUMMELING THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MAYBE MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE
WITH US LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL
RATES A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF A
POWDERY NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE
ORDER OF 15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
STILL...WITH VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE
HARD FOR CREWS TO TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY
MELTED SNOW COULD BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL
BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 6-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 8-16 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 271156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE
OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL
BE MODERATE AT MOST. THE SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST...IT TIME TO DOWNGRADE THE REMAINING OF THE EASTERN
NEW YORK/S COUNTIES. RADARS INDICATING THAT THE SNOW SHIELD WAS
HAVING TROUBLED EVEN MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AS DRIER AIR
WAS HANGING TOUCH. ALSO...THE SHIELD WAS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
ONLY A FEW MORE ELEMENTS OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY...PERHAPS A FEW 7 INCH AMOUNTS
LOCALLY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING OF THE SNOW.
ALSO...DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE HARD TO MELT THE
SNOW OFF ANY OF THE ROADS.

PER COORDINATION...WE KEPT ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT FOR
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL AROUND 980 MBS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. IT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS NEARING IT. THIS MEANS THAT STORM HAS
JUST ABOUT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND IT IS PUMMELING THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MAYBE MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE
WITH US LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL
RATES A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF A
POWDERY NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE
ORDER OF 15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
STILL...WITH VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE
HARD FOR CREWS TO TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY
MELTED SNOW COULD BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL
BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 6-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 8-16 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 271156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE
OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL
BE MODERATE AT MOST. THE SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST...IT TIME TO DOWNGRADE THE REMAINING OF THE EASTERN
NEW YORK/S COUNTIES. RADARS INDICATING THAT THE SNOW SHIELD WAS
HAVING TROUBLED EVEN MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AS DRIER AIR
WAS HANGING TOUCH. ALSO...THE SHIELD WAS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
ONLY A FEW MORE ELEMENTS OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY...PERHAPS A FEW 7 INCH AMOUNTS
LOCALLY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING OF THE SNOW.
ALSO...DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE HARD TO MELT THE
SNOW OFF ANY OF THE ROADS.

PER COORDINATION...WE KEPT ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT FOR
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL AROUND 980 MBS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. IT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS NEARING IT. THIS MEANS THAT STORM HAS
JUST ABOUT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND IT IS PUMMELING THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MAYBE MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE
WITH US LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL
RATES A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF A
POWDERY NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE
ORDER OF 15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
STILL...WITH VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE
HARD FOR CREWS TO TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY
MELTED SNOW COULD BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL
BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 6-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 8-16 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 271156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF CA
00004000
PE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE
OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL
BE MODERATE AT MOST. THE SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST...IT TIME TO DOWNGRADE THE REMAINING OF THE EASTERN
NEW YORK/S COUNTIES. RADARS INDICATING THAT THE SNOW SHIELD WAS
HAVING TROUBLED EVEN MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AS DRIER AIR
WAS HANGING TOUCH. ALSO...THE SHIELD WAS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
ONLY A FEW MORE ELEMENTS OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY...PERHAPS A FEW 7 INCH AMOUNTS
LOCALLY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING OF THE SNOW.
ALSO...DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE HARD TO MELT THE
SNOW OFF ANY OF THE ROADS.

PER COORDINATION...WE KEPT ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT FOR
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL AROUND 980 MBS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. IT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS NEARING IT. THIS MEANS THAT STORM HAS
JUST ABOUT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND IT IS PUMMELING THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MAYBE MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE
WITH US LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL
RATES A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF A
POWDERY NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE
ORDER OF 15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
STILL...WITH VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE
HARD FOR CREWS TO TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY
MELTED SNOW COULD BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL
BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 6-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 8-16 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CON
00004000
DITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 271116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE H
00008000
IGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 271116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 271116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 271116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GEN
00004000
ERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 M
00004000
PH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDRO
000015AB
LOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST
NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A
CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING
FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL
QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS
SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND
WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE
PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT
00004000
 AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST
NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A
CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING
FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL
QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS
SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND
WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE
PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST
NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A
CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING
FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL
QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS
SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND
WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE
PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TR
00004000
OUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST
NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A
CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING
FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL
QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS
SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND
WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE
PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALRE
00004000
ADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAI
00004000
N VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAM
00004000
PLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER
OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOME OF EASTERN NEW YORK. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
00004000

A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WAS WORKING THROUGH
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND INTO DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT
OVER BERKSHIRE WAS WEAKENING SOME BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION WAS STILL
LOOK PRETTY HEALTHY.

WE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...ONLY A SMATTERING OF LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT SNOW TAKING
PLACE WITH MANY AREAS DRY.

IT WAS VERY COLD WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE TEENS...BUT THE WIND WAS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY NOT DROP MUCH IF AT ALL FURTHER DOWN
OVERNIGHT.

GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STORM TRACKING A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST (AS OPPOSED TO NORTH NORTHEAST). THE
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. SURFACE WINDS WERE NNE AT BOTH NANTUCKET AND
PROVINCETOWN CAPE COD. IT LOOKS LIKELY THIS STORM WILL PASS TO THE
EAST OF CAPE COD. A 985 MB LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES OFF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST...WHICH IS NORMALLY WELL TO FAR EAST TO BRING MOST
OF OUR AREA TO BRING HEAVY SNOW.

NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WE WANT TO EXAMINE
ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLE SALE CHANGES ON ANY OF
OUR HEADLINES...INCLUDING THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.

ONLY LIKELIHOOD THIS STORM WILL MOVE TO THE NO
SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON ALL THE
NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...BUT WAITING
FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD TOMORROW COULD STILL
THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR SOME VERY DRY
SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT LESS. SURFACE
ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST AND THE SURFACE
LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE FALLS EAST...RATHER
THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT
OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED
FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL
RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER
OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOME OF EASTERN NEW YORK. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WAS WORKING THROUGH
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND INTO DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT
OVER BERKSHIRE WAS WEAKENING SOME BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION WAS STILL
LOOK PRETTY HEALTHY.

WE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...ONLY A SMATTERING OF LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT SNOW TAKING
PLACE WITH MANY AREAS DRY.

IT WAS VERY COLD WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE TEENS...BUT THE WIND WAS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY NOT DROP MUCH IF AT ALL FURTHER DOWN
OVERNIGHT.

GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STORM TRACKING A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST (AS OPPOSED TO NORTH NORTHEAST). THE
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. SURFACE WINDS WERE NNE AT BOTH NANTUCKET AND
PROVINCETOWN CAPE COD. IT LOOKS LIKELY THIS STORM WILL PASS TO THE
EAST OF CAPE COD. A 985 MB LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES OFF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST...WHICH IS NORMALLY WELL TO FAR EAST TO BRING MOST
OF OUR AREA TO BRING HEAVY SNOW.

NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WE WANT TO EXAMINE
ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLE SALE CHANGES ON ANY OF
OUR HEADLINES...INCLUDING THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.

ONLY LIKELIHOOD THIS STORM WILL MOVE TO THE NO
SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON ALL THE
NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...BUT WAITING
FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD TOMORROW COULD STILL
THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR SOME VERY DRY
SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT LESS. SURFACE
ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST AND THE SURFACE
LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE FALLS EAST...RATHER
THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT
OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED
FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL
RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING 
00004000
CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1228 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WI
00004000
TH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
TAF SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1228 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
TAF SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN 
00004000
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

00004000
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATI
00004000
ON OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
     A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
     A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHO
00004000
WS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
     A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACRO
00004000
SS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
     A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10
00000039
-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
00000291
. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 35
00004000
5 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL R
00003E27
EMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 262344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STORM TRACK
AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW JUST PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY MODERATE OR HEAVIER SNOW
STILL QUITE A DISTANCE UPSTREAM. THE EVENTUAL NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HIGH SNOW R
00004000
ATIOS
COULD STILL MAKE UP FOR ANY SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION. THE ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY
BE TELLING WHERE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
SETTING UP...WITH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT JUST UNDER THE ENHANCED
CLOUD TOPS...BUT STILL EARLY IN THE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED. JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO
WORD LIGHT SNOW AND ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STILL...THE OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME ONCE THE HEAVIER STEADIER SNOW MOVES
IN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLIGHTLY GREATER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING
POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 262344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STORM TRACK
AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW JUST PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY MODERATE OR HEAVIER SNOW
STILL QUITE A DISTANCE UPSTREAM. THE EVENTUAL NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HIGH SNOW RATIOS
COULD STILL MAKE UP FOR ANY SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION. THE ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY
BE TELLING WHERE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
SETTING UP...WITH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT JUST UNDER THE ENHANCED
CLOUD TOPS...BUT STILL EARLY IN THE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED. JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO
WORD LIGHT SNOW AND ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STILL...THE OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME ONCE THE HEAVIER STEADIER SNOW MOVES
IN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLIGHTLY GREATER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING
POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM 
00004000
PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 262344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STORM TRACK
AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW JUST PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY MODERATE OR HEAVIER SNOW
STILL QUITE A DISTANCE UPSTREAM. THE EVENTUAL NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HIGH SNOW RATIOS
COULD STILL MAKE UP FOR ANY SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION. THE ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY
BE TELLING WHERE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
SETTING UP...WITH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT JUST UNDER THE ENHANCED
CLOUD TOPS...BUT STILL EARLY IN THE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED. JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO
WORD LIGHT SNOW AND ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STILL...THE OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME ONCE THE HEAVIER STEADIER SNOW MOVES
IN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLIGHTLY GREATER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING
POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND F
00004000
ORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 262344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STORM TRACK
AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW JUST PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY MODERATE OR HEAVIER SNOW
STILL QUITE A DISTANCE UPSTREAM. THE EVENTUAL NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HIGH SNOW RATIOS
COULD STILL MAKE UP FOR ANY SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION. THE ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY
BE TELLING WHERE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
SETTING UP...WITH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT JUST UNDER THE ENHANCED
CLOUD TOPS...BUT STILL EARLY IN THE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED. JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO
WORD LIGHT SNOW AND ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STILL...THE OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME ONCE THE HEAVIER STEADIER SNOW MOVES
IN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLIGHTLY GREATER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING
POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 262139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG
WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL HAS BEEN UPDATED. A GRAPHIC OF THIS CAN BE FOUND ON
OUR WEBSITE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER SNOWFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS
DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCU
00004000
MULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB WELL INTO THIS
EVENING...WHILE KPOU/KPSF HAVE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SPREADING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. AT KPOU WIDESPREAD IFR OR LESS
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR AFTER 27/01Z...03Z AT KPSF...05Z AT
KALB...AND 08Z AT KGFL. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY...
MAINLY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW.

SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...THEN 8 TO 12 KTS TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS AT
KPSF/KPOU. ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 262139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG
WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL HAS BEEN UPDATED. A GRAPHIC OF THIS CAN BE FOUND ON
OUR WEBSITE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER SNOWFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS
DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB WELL INTO THIS
EVENING...WHILE KPOU/KPSF HAVE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SPREADING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. AT KPOU WIDESPREAD IFR OR LESS
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR AFTER 27/01Z...03Z AT KPSF...05Z AT
KALB...AND 08Z AT KGFL. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY...
MAINLY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW.

SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...THEN 8 TO 12 KTS TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS AT
KPSF/KPOU. ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
00004000

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
HEADLINES:
*A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
 INCLUDING ORANGE...RUTLAND...WINDSOR. THE WARNING IS FOR 8-14
 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
*A WINTER STORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
 VERMONT INCLUDING ESSEX...CALEDONIA...WASHINGTON...ADDISON. THE
 ADVISORY IS FOR 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW  AND IS IN EFFECT FROM
 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OFF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS REALLY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOPING
HOWEVER THOSE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING NEAR 10PM AS THE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONG FRONTOGENIES IS STILL WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS TO NOT
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10-20KT
RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 30KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER VERMONT AND OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5 AND ZERO DEGREES. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE APPROACHING WIND CHILL CRITERIA BETWEEN -15 AND
-20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO BE FALLING AS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THROUGHOUT VERMONT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL
SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST
THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION.
THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF
QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF
RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY
A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT 850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
HEADLINES:
*A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
 INCLUDING ORANGE...RUTLAND...WINDSOR. THE WARNING IS FOR 8-14
 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
*A WINTER STORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
 VERMONT INCLUDING ESSEX...CALEDONIA...WASHINGTON...ADDISON. THE
 ADVISORY IS FOR 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW  AND IS IN EFFECT FROM
 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OFF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS REALLY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOPING
HOWEVER THOSE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING NEAR 10PM AS THE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONG FRONTOGENIES IS STILL WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS TO NOT
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10-20KT
RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 30KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER VERMONT AND OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5 AND ZERO DEGREES. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE APPROACHING WIND CHILL CRITERIA BETWEEN -15 AND
-20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO BE FALLING AS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THROUGHOUT VERMONT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL
SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST
THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION.
THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF
QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF
RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY
A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT 850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     W
00004000
INTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY
00004000
. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. T
00004000
HIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1258 PM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS ITS NORTHERN TREK INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ON TRACK AS WE
ARE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LOW TEENS ALREADY SO MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SHOULD WORK OUT QUITE WELL TODAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS STILL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE FEW LIGHT ECHOS THAT HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP TO THE SOUTH ON COMPOSITE RADAR WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
FALLING AS PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1258 PM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS ITS NORTHERN TREK INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ON TRACK AS WE
ARE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LOW TEENS ALREADY SO MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SHOULD WORK OUT QUITE WELL TODAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS STILL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE FEW LIGHT ECHOS THAT HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP TO THE SOUTH ON COMPOSITE RADAR WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
FALLING AS PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1258 PM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS ITS NORTHERN TREK INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ON TRACK AS WE
ARE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LOW TEENS ALREADY SO MAX
TEMPS IN THE M
00004000
ID TEENS SHOULD WORK OUT QUITE WELL TODAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS STILL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE FEW LIGHT ECHOS THAT HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP TO THE SOUTH ON COMPOSITE RADAR WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
FALLING AS PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1258 PM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS ITS NORTHERN TREK INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ON TRACK AS WE
ARE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LOW TEENS ALREADY SO MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SHOULD WORK OUT QUITE WELL TODAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS STILL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE FEW LIGHT ECHOS THAT HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP TO THE SOUTH ON COMPOSITE RADAR WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
FALLING AS PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE ONLY UPDATE WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO MAKE SOME MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY.

INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR
WILL INITIALLY WIN OUT...KEEPING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AROUND 20 TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE 06Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS OF EACH. THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY LIGHT
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUNS...WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY
AS OL
00000D0C
DER GUIDANCE MAYBE SIGNALED A TREND TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS AGAIN.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION BAND CAN GET.
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE GOOD FGEN BAND (WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES) SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THU
00004000
NDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB WELL INTO THIS
EVENING...WHILE KPOU/KPSF HAVE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SPREADING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. AT KPOU WIDESPREAD IFR OR LESS
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR AFTER 27/01Z...03Z AT KPSF...05Z AT
KALB...AND 08Z AT KGFL. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY...
MAINLY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW.

SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...THEN 8 TO 12 KTS TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS AT
KPSF/KPOU. ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD
TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR SNOW TOTALS WITH
THIS UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW TO DELAY ONSET OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. LIGHT SNOW MAKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER PA. SECONDARY BATCH OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVED INTO DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD...HOWEVER THIS AREA IS
WEAKENING TOO...AS THE COASTAL STORM IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT
STAGES AND THE FIRST MAIN SNOW BAND STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER
LONG ISLAND. SO SCALED BACK POPS/QPF/SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE THE
COASTAL STORM INTENSIFIES AND FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. WILL HAVE A
MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE UPDATE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM WITH UPDATED
SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTE
00004000
R WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD
TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR SNOW TOTALS WITH
THIS UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW TO DELAY ONSET OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. LIGHT SNOW MAKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER PA. SECONDARY BATCH OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVED INTO DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD...HOWEVER THIS AREA IS
WEAKENING TOO...AS THE COASTAL STORM IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT
STAGES AND THE FIRST MAIN SNOW BAND STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER
LONG ISLAND. SO SCALED BACK POPS/QPF/SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE THE
COASTAL STORM INTENSIFIES AND FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. WILL HAVE A
MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE UPDATE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM WITH UPDATED
SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD
TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR SNOW TOTALS WITH
THIS UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW TO DELAY ONSET OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. LIGHT SNOW MAKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER PA. SECONDARY BATCH OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVED INTO DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD...HOWEVER THIS AREA IS
WEAKENING TOO...AS THE COASTAL STORM IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT
STAGES AND THE FIRST MAIN SNOW BAND STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER
LONG ISLAND. SO SCALED BACK POPS/QPF/SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE THE
COASTAL STORM INTENSIFIES AND FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. WILL HAVE A
MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE UPDATE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM WITH UPDATED
SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIF
00004000
TING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD
TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM EST...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR SNOW TOTALS WITH
THIS UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW TO DELAY ONSET OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. LIGHT SNOW MAKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER PA. SECONDARY BATCH OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVED INTO DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD...HOWEVER THIS AREA IS
WEAKENING TOO...AS THE COASTAL STORM IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT
STAGES AND THE FIRST MAIN SNOW BAND STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER
LONG ISLAND. SO SCALED BACK POPS/QPF/SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE THE
COASTAL STORM INTENSIFIES AND FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. WILL HAVE A
MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE UPDATE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM WITH UPDATED
SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE ONLY UPDATE W
00004000
ITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO MAKE SOME MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY.

INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR
WILL INITIALLY WIN OUT...KEEPING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AROUND 20 TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE 06Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS OF EACH. THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY LIGHT
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUNS...WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY
AS OLDER GUIDANCE MAYBE SIGNALED A TREND TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS AGAIN.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION BAND CAN GET.
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE GOOD FGEN BAND (WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES) SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE ONLY UPDATE WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO MAKE SOME MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY.

INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR
WILL INITIALLY WIN OUT...KEEPING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AROUND 20 TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE 06Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS OF EACH. THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY LIGHT
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUNS...WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY
AS OLDER GUIDANCE MAYBE SIGNALED A TREND TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS AGAIN.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION BAND CAN GET.
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE GOOD FGEN BAND (WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES) SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNT
00004000
Y. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE ONLY UPDATE WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO MAKE SOME MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY.

INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR
WILL INITIALLY WIN OUT...KEEPING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AROUND 20 TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE 06Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS OF EACH. THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY LIGHT
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUNS...WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY
AS OLDER GUIDANCE MAYBE SIGNALED A TREND TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS AGAIN.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION BAND CAN GET.
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE GOOD FGEN BAND (WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES) SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 26
00004000
1450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE ONLY UPDATE WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO MAKE SOME MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY.

INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR
WILL INITIALLY WIN OUT...KEEPING MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AROUND 20 TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE 06Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS OF EACH. THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY LIGHT
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUNS...WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY
AS OLDER GUIDANCE MAYBE SIGNALED A TREND TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS AGAIN.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION BAND CAN GET.
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE GOOD FGEN BAND (WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES) SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER RE
00004000
MAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE ONLY UPDATE WITH THIS ISSUANCE (OTHER THAN TWEAK HOURLY GRIDS)
WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE FACT THE
CLOUDS WERE THICKENING PRETTY FAST.

AS 645 AM...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL WEAK...AND SO
FAR...ONLY PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE.

TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE BELOW ZERO WELL NORTHWEST OF
ALBANY...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...TEENS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY WIN
OUT...KEEP MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH
MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES
FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AROUND 20 TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE 06Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS OF EACH. THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY LIGHT
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUNS...WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY
AS OLDER GUIDANCE MAYBE SIGNALED A TREND TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS AGAIN.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION BAND CAN GET.
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE GOOD FGEN BAND (WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES) SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIG
00004000
H...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE ONLY UPDATE WITH THIS ISSUANCE (OTHER THAN TWEAK HOURLY GRIDS)
WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE FACT THE
CLOUDS WERE THICKENING PRETTY FAST.

AS 645 AM...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL WEAK...AND SO
FAR...ONLY PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE.

TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE BELOW ZERO WELL NORTHWEST OF
ALBANY...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...TEENS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY WIN
OUT...KEEP MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH
MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES
FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AROUND 20 TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE 06Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS OF EACH. THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY LIGHT
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUNS...WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY
AS OLDER GUIDANCE MAYBE SIGNALED A TREND TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS AGAIN.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION BAND CAN GET.
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE GOOD FGEN BAND (WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES) SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PRED
00004000
ICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE ONLY UPDATE WITH THIS ISSUANCE (OTHER THAN TWEAK HOURLY GRIDS)
WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE FACT THE
CLOUDS WERE THICKENING PRETTY FAST.

AS 645 AM...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL WEAK...AND SO
FAR...ONLY PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE.

TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE BELOW ZERO WELL NORTHWEST OF
ALBANY...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...TEENS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY WIN
OUT...KEEP MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH
MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES
FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AROUND 20 TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE 06Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS OF EACH. THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY LIGHT
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUNS...WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY
AS OLDER GUIDANCE MAYBE SIGNALED A TREND TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS AGAIN.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION BAND CAN GET.
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE GOOD FGEN BAND (WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES) SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE ONLY UPDATE WITH THIS ISSUANCE (OTHER THAN TWEAK HOURLY GRIDS)
WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE FACT THE
CLOUDS WERE THICKENING PRETTY FAST.

AS 645 AM...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL WEAK...AND SO
FAR...ONLY PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE.

TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE BELOW ZERO WELL NORTHWEST OF
ALBANY...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...TEENS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY WIN
OUT...KEEP MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH
MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES
FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...AROUND 20 TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE 06Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS OF EACH. THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY LIGHT
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUNS...WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY
AS OLDER GUIDANCE MAYBE SIGNALED A TREND TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS AGAIN.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION BAND CAN GET.
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE GOOD FGEN BAND (WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES) SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE
00004000
 NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

AS 430 AM...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER SW VA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK...AND SO FAR...ONLY
PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX FURTHER SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE.

TEMPERATURES HOVERED AROUND ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW NORTH OF
ALBANY...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...TEENS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL A COUPLE MORE POINTS THROUGH DAWN.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY WIN
OUT...KEEP MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH
MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES
FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AROUND 20 IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A ONLY A FEW POINTS
HIGHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IM
00004000
PACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS 
00004000
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
617 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE 
00004000
OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
617 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
617 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COU
00004000
LD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
617 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 616 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

AS 430 AM...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER SW VA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK...AND SO FAR...ONLY
PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX FURTHER SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE.

TEMPERATURES HOVERED AROUND ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW NORTH OF
ALBANY...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...TEENS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL A COUPLE MORE POINTS THROUGH DAWN.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY WIN
OUT...KEEP MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH
MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES
FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AROUND 20 IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A ONLY A FEW POINTS
HIGHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM
00004000
.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

AS 430 AM...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER SW VA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK...AND SO FAR...ONLY
PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX FURTHER SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE.

TEMPERATURES HOVERED AROUND ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW NORTH OF
ALBANY...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS...TEENS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL A COUPLE MORE POINTS THROUGH DAWN.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY WIN
OUT...KEEP MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH
MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES
FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AROUND 20 IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A ONLY A FEW POINTS
HIGHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME.
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY).

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED"
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND.

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA.

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR
PERIOD.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED B
00004000
Y ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260827
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...M
00004000
AINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260827
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260827
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260827
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF TH
00000DB9
E NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 260544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY...ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE STORM...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...STILL A LITTLE NORTHWEST WIND MAINLY EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPING BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THEY COULD AS THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM SYSTEM WERE RACING IN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET.

VERY LITTLE 
00004000
TO CHANGE WITH UPDATE...JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LOOK TO OCCUR FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT PLUS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTH AND EAST.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. LOOKING
FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING...EXPECT FOR
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WHICH REMAINS A WATCH.

THE WARNING HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO PARTS. PART ONE IS FOR
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. PART TWO IS FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...HELDERBERGS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...SARATOGA REGION...GLENS
FALLS AREA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR 8 TO 14 INCHES.

ALONG WITH NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY STILL IN A WATCH WE HAVE ADDED
FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WITH OCCUR MONDAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES INTO THE SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTENSE
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
WELL AS SLOWING IT MOVEMENT. THE LOW BECOME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WOBBLE NEAR MONT AUK POINT/CAPE COD TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE/QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE USED THE QPF
GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
GIVES US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD...AN INCH INTO
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING
OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. ALL SNOW FOR THIS
STORM...WITH FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS OF AROUND 14:1 TO 15:1.

SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB
PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL NOR`EASTER
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
FOR COLLABORATION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...BUT WITH A RECENT
FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER
POTENT PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY FROM THE
CLIPPER TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WHILE THERE ARE SIGNALS OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IF IT DOES. AT
THE VERY LEAST...A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IF A COASTAL LOW WERE TO
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE NOREASTER AFFECTING THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS...AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED WITH
LITTLE...IF ANY SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO
LOW 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEHIND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF
WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. FOR THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM 10 BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 260534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY...ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE STORM...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...STILL A LITTLE NORTHWEST WIND MAINLY EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPING BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THEY COULD AS THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM SYSTEM WERE RACING IN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET.

VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE WITH UPDATE...JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LOOK TO OCCUR FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT PLUS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTH AND EAST.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. LOOKING
FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING...EXPECT FOR
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WHICH REMAINS A WATCH.

THE WARNING HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO PARTS. PART ONE IS FOR
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. PART TWO IS FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...HELDERBERGS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...SARATOGA REGION...GLENS
FALLS AREA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR 8 TO 14 INCHES.

ALONG WITH NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY STILL IN A WATCH WE HAVE ADDED
FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WITH OCCUR MONDAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES INTO THE SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTENSE
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
WELL AS SLOWING IT MOVEMENT. THE LOW BECOME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WOBBLE NEAR MONT AUK POINT/CAPE COD TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE/QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE USED THE QPF
GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
GIVES US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD...AN INCH INTO
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING
OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. ALL SNOW FOR THIS
STORM...WITH FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS OF AROUND 14:1 TO 15:1.

SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB
PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL NOR`EASTER
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
FOR COLLABORATION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...BUT WITH A RECENT
FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER
POTENT PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY FROM THE
CLIPPER TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WHILE THERE ARE SIGNALS OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IF IT DOES. AT
THE VERY LEAST...A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IF A COASTAL LOW WERE TO
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE NOREASTER AFFECTING THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS...AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED WITH
LITTLE...IF ANY SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO
LOW 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEHIND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF
WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. FOR THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM 10 BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WERE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME BKN-OVC AT 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MON NIGHT
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES FOR MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY
AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...W
00004000
INTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 260534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY...ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE STORM...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...STILL A LITTLE NORTHWEST WIND MAINLY EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPING BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THEY COULD AS THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM SYSTEM WERE RACING IN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET.

VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE WITH UPDATE...JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LOOK TO OCCUR FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT PLUS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTH AND EAST.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. LOOKING
FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING...EXPECT FOR
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WHICH REMAINS A WATCH.

THE WARNING HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO PARTS. PART ONE IS FOR
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. PART TWO IS FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...HELDERBERGS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...SARATOGA REGION...GLENS
FALLS AREA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR 8 TO 14 INCHES.

ALONG WITH NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY STILL IN A WATCH WE HAVE ADDED
FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WITH OCCUR MONDAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES INTO THE SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTENSE
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
WELL AS SLOWING IT MOVEMENT. THE LOW BECOME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WOBBLE NEAR MONT AUK POINT/CAPE COD TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE/QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE USED THE QPF
GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
GIVES US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD...AN INCH INTO
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING
OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. ALL SNOW FOR THIS
STORM...WITH FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS OF AROUND 14:1 TO 15:1.

SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB
PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL NOR`EASTER
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
FOR COLLABORATION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...BUT WITH A RECENT
FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER
POTENT PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY FROM THE
CLIPPER TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WHILE THERE ARE SIGNALS OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IF IT DOES. AT
THE VERY LEAST...A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IF A COASTAL LOW WERE TO
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE NOREASTER AFFECTING THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS...AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED WITH
LITTLE...IF ANY SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO
LOW 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEHIND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF
WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. FOR THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM 10 BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WERE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME BKN-OVC AT 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MON NIGHT
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES FOR MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY
AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER M
00004000
IDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO
10 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260517
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260517
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SA
00004000
TURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260517
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260517
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1022 PM EST SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN
00004000
 A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1022 PM EST SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1022 PM EST SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH 
00004000
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1022 PM EST SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 260234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY...ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE STORM...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LOOK TO OCCUR FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT PLUS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTH AND EAST.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. LOOKING
FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING...EXPECT FOR
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WHICH REMAINS A WATCH.

THE WARNING HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO PARTS. PART ONE IS FOR
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. PART TWO IS FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...HELDERBERGS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...SARATOGA REGION...GLENS
FALLS AREA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR 8 TO 14 INCHES.

ALONG WITH NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY STILL IN A WATCH WE HAVE ADDED
FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WITH OCCUR MONDAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES INTO THE SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTENSE
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
WELL AS SLOWING IT MOVEMENT. THE LOW BECOME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WOBBLE NEAR MONT AUK POINT/CAPE COD TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE/QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE USED THE QPF
GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
GIVES US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD...AN INCH INTO
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING
OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. ALL SNOW FOR THIS
STORM...WITH FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS OF AROUND 14:1 TO 15:1.

SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE
UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL NOR`EASTER
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
FOR COLLABORATION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...BUT WITH A RECENT
FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER
POTENT PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY FROM THE
CLIPPER TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WHILE THERE ARE SIGNALS OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IF IT DOES. AT
THE VERY LEAST...A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IF A COASTAL LOW WERE TO
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE NOREASTER AFFECTING THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS...AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED WITH
LITTLE...IF ANY SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO
LOW 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEHIND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF
WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. FOR THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM 10 BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WERE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME BKN-OVC AT 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MON NIGHT
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES FOR MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY
AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIO
00004000
NS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 260234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY...ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE STORM...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LOOK TO OCCUR FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT PLUS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTH AND EAST.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. LOOKING
FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING...EXPECT FOR
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WHICH REMAINS A WATCH.

THE WARNING HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO PARTS. PART ONE IS FOR
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. PART TWO IS FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...HELDERBERGS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...SARATOGA REGION...GLENS
FALLS AREA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR 8 TO 14 INCHES.

ALONG WITH NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY STILL IN A WATCH WE HAVE ADDED
FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WITH OCCUR MONDAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES INTO THE SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTENSE
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
WELL AS SLOWING IT MOVEMENT. THE LOW BECOME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WOBBLE NEAR MONT AUK POINT/CAPE COD TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE/QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE USED THE QPF
GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
GIVES US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD...AN INCH INTO
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING
OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. ALL SNOW FOR THIS
STORM...WITH FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS OF AROUND 14:1 TO 15:1.

SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE
UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL NOR`EASTER
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
FOR COLLABORATION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...BUT WITH A RECENT
FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER
POTENT PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY FROM THE
CLIPPER TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WHILE THERE ARE SIGNALS OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IF IT DOES. AT
THE VERY LEAST...A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IF A COASTAL LOW WERE TO
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE NOREASTER AFFECTING THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS...AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED WITH
LITTLE...IF ANY SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO
LOW 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEHIND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF
WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. FOR THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM 10 BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WERE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME BKN-OVC AT 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MON NIGHT
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES FOR MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY
AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 260234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY...ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE STORM...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LOOK TO OCCUR FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT PLUS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTH AND EAST.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. LOOKING
FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING...EXPECT FOR
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WHICH REMAINS A WATCH.

THE WARNING HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO PARTS. PART ONE IS FOR
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. PART TWO IS FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...HELDERBERGS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...SARATOGA REGION...GLENS
FALLS AREA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR 8 TO 14 INCHES.

ALONG WITH NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY STILL IN A WATCH WE HAVE ADDED
FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WITH OCCUR MONDAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES INTO THE SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTENSE
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
WELL AS SLOWING IT MOVEMENT. THE LOW BECOME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WOBBLE NEAR MONT AUK POINT/CAPE COD TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE/QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE USED THE QPF
GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
GIVES US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD...AN INCH INTO
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING
OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. ALL SNOW FOR THIS
STORM...WITH FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS OF AROUND 14:1 TO 15:1.

SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE
UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL NOR`EASTER
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
FOR COLLABORATION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...BUT WITH A RECENT
FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER
POTENT PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY FROM THE
CLIPPER TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WHILE THERE ARE SIGNALS OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IF IT DOES. AT
THE VERY LEAST...A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IF A COASTAL LOW WERE TO
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE NOREASTER AFFECTING THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS...AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED WITH
LITTLE...IF ANY SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO
LOW 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEHIND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF
WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. FOR THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM 10 BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WERE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME BKN-OVC AT 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MON NIGHT
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES FOR MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME
00004000
 GUSTY
AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 260234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY...ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE STORM...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LOOK TO OCCUR FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...WITH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT PLUS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTH AND EAST.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. LOOKING
FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING...EXPECT FOR
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WHICH REMAINS A WATCH.

THE WARNING HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO PARTS. PART ONE IS FOR
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. PART TWO IS FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...HELDERBERGS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...SARATOGA REGION...GLENS
FALLS AREA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR 8 TO 14 INCHES.

ALONG WITH NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY STILL IN A WATCH WE HAVE ADDED
FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WITH OCCUR MONDAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES INTO THE SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTENSE
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
WELL AS SLOWING IT MOVEMENT. THE LOW BECOME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WOBBLE NEAR MONT AUK POINT/CAPE COD TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE/QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE USED THE QPF
GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
GIVES US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD...AN INCH INTO
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING
OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. ALL SNOW FOR THIS
STORM...WITH FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS OF AROUND 14:1 TO 15:1.

SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE
UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL NOR`EASTER
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
FOR COLLABORATION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...BUT WITH A RECENT
FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER
POTENT PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY FROM THE
CLIPPER TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WHILE THERE ARE SIGNALS OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IF IT DOES. AT
THE VERY LEAST...A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IF A COASTAL LOW WERE TO
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE NOREASTER AFFECTING THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS...AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED WITH
LITTLE...IF ANY SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO
LOW 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEHIND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF
WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. FOR THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM 10 BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WERE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME BKN-OVC AT 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MON NIGHT
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES FOR MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY
AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EST SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
ZERO...RANGING FROM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WA
00004000
RNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EST SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
ZERO...RANGING FROM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 252355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EST SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
ZERO...RANGING FROM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS BY 12Z MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 252355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EST SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
ZERO...RANGING FROM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF 
00004000
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS BY 12Z MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 252355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EST SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
ZERO...RANGING FROM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS BY 12Z MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM