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0000C000000
FXUS61 KALY 272034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS
AND SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH. FOR THIS EVENING HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT TO THE
SOUTH. LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE TO DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE 35 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSSITENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO RELEASE ITS
GRIP ON THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. AFTER A
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY START...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTER...AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT SKY COVER WILL
STILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY SINCE THERE IS NO LARGE SURFACE HIGH
IN THE AREA THAT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR CLEAR/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH LOWS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY BETWEEN 60 AND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECAST MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY REGARDING A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND SPAWN
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE N/S CAROLINA COAST. THE STORM IS THEN FORECAST
TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE...BUT WELL OFF THE COAST. SO THIS
RESULTS IN A DRIER FORECAST FOR OUR REGION WITH A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER
THE OCEAN. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD AND A FEW PIECES
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE NEAR NORMAL BUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND.

THE OCEAN STORM WILL PULL EVEN FARTHER AWAY BY SATURDAY...WITH A
RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GFS DOES
SHOW AN UPPER LOW TRACKING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE ANY SIGNS OF THIS FEATURE. SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EITHER WAY IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH OUT AND MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY WARM MID-SPRING
TEMPERATURES.

AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING FOR A
MILD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S MAY BE
ATTAINABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND GRADUAL CLEARING TO SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE OVER MOST
OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 18Z/TUE. HOWEVER...A FEW PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESP AT KPSF TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT AGAIN...THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
PLENTY OF CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND
30 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HAVE COORDINATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND STATE/LOCAL OFFICIALS...AND AT THIS TIME
THERE IS LITTLE INTEREST IN ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RH VALUES ON TUESDAY...AND BECAUSE
STATE/LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT THAT FINE FUELS ARE NOT THAT DRY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THIS
WEEK.

SCATTERE TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURNING LATER THIS
WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AS
WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS KEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS THE LAST SEVERAL DAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
NOVA SCOTIA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD MIXING WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE TUESDAY
MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURE TO
CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT,
LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A CONSENSUS IN
REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WORKS IN OUR FAVOR WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WE BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL HAVE JUST PHASED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FURTHER THE FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL LOW PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EXPECTED NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
INSTEAD SUPPORTING A NICE BIT OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT SKIES WON`T EXACTLY BE CLEAR, BUT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S,
PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. A WEAK LOW
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AGAIN. TEMPS REMAIN
FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO
8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY
UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS KEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS THE LAST SEVERAL DAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
NOVA SCOTIA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD MIXING WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE TUESDAY
MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURE TO
CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT,
LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A CONSENSUS IN
REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WORKS IN OUR FAVOR WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WE BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL HAVE JUST PHASED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FURTHER THE FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL LOW PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EXPECTED NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
INSTEAD SUPPORTING A NICE BIT OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT SKIES WON`T EXACTLY BE CLEAR, BUT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S,
PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. A WEAK LOW
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AGAIN. TEMPS REMAIN
FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO
8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY
UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS KEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS THE LAST SEVERAL DAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
NOVA SCOTIA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD MIXING WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE TUESDAY
MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURE TO
CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT,
LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A CONSENSUS IN
REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WORKS IN OUR FAVOR WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WE BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL HAVE JUST PHASED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FURTHER THE FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL LOW PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EXPECTED NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
INSTEAD SUPPORTING A NICE BIT OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT SKIES WON`T EXACTLY BE CLEAR, BUT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S,
PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. A WEAK LOW
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AGAIN. TEMPS REMAIN
FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO
8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY
UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS KEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS THE LAST SEVERAL DAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
NOVA SCOTIA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD MIXING WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE TUESDAY
MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURE TO
CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT,
LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A CONSENSUS IN
REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WORKS IN OUR FAVOR WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WE BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL HAVE JUST PHASED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FURTHER THE FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL LOW PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EXPECTED NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
INSTEAD SUPPORTING A NICE BIT OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT SKIES WON`T EXACTLY BE CLEAR, BUT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S,
PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. A WEAK LOW
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AGAIN. TEMPS REMAIN
FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO
8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY
UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271854
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
254 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME. JUST LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY A DEGREE OR TWO AND ALSO ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT,
LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A CONSENSUS IN
REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WORKS IN OUR FAVOR WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WE BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL HAVE JUST PHASED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FURTHER THE FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL LOW PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EXPECTED NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
INSTEAD SUPPORTING A NICE BIT OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT SKIES WON`T EXACTLY BE CLEAR, BUT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S,
PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. A WEAK LOW
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AGAIN. TEMPS REMAIN
FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO
8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY
UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271854
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
254 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME. JUST LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY A DEGREE OR TWO AND ALSO ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT,
LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A CONSENSUS IN
REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WORKS IN OUR FAVOR WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WE BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL HAVE JUST PHASED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FURTHER THE FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL LOW PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EXPECTED NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
INSTEAD SUPPORTING A NICE BIT OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT SKIES WON`T EXACTLY BE CLEAR, BUT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S,
PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. A WEAK LOW
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AGAIN. TEMPS REMAIN
FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO
8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY
UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 271744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...NOT MUCH CHANNGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH. HAVE KEPT
THE SKY COVER AND POP FORECAST AS THEY WERE...WITH ONLY MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THEIR HIGHS FOR TODAY OR WILL ONLY GO UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...SO HAVE FORECAST TEMPS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND GRADUAL CLEARING TO SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE OVER MOST
OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 18Z/TUE. HOWEVER...A FEW PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESP AT KPSF TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT AGAIN...THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDI
00004000
NATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 271744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...NOT MUCH CHANNGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH. HAVE KEPT
THE SKY COVER AND POP FORECAST AS THEY WERE...WITH ONLY MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THEIR HIGHS FOR TODAY OR WILL ONLY GO UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...SO HAVE FORECAST TEMPS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND GRADUAL CLEARING TO SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE OVER MOST
OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 18Z/TUE. HOWEVER...A FEW PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESP AT KPSF TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT AGAIN...THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME. JUST LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY A DEGREE OR TWO AND ALSO ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO
8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY
UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME. JUST LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY A DEGREE OR TWO AND ALSO ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO
8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY
UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME. JUST LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY A DEGREE OR TWO AND ALSO ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO
8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY
UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME. JUST LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY A DEGREE OR TWO AND ALSO ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO
8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY
UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME. JUST LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY A DEGREE OR TWO AND ALSO ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. 
0000F851
BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF MAINLY OVC MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SCT IFR AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 15Z. DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCT -RA/-SHRAS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION TODAY/THIS EVENING AS PESKY UPPER LOW
LINGERS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO
IMPROVE AFTER 00Z WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF -SHRAS TAPERING OFF.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MAINLY SCT/BKN VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME SCT MVFR AND SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 12Z TUE TO 12Z WED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME. JUST LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY A DEGREE OR TWO AND ALSO ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF MAINLY OVC MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SCT IFR AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 15Z. DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCT -RA/-SHRAS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION TODAY/THIS EVENING AS PESKY UPPER LOW
LINGERS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO
IMPROVE AFTER 00Z WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF -SHRAS TAPERING OFF.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MAINLY SCT/BKN VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME SCT MVFR AND SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 12Z TUE TO 12Z WED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 271448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 271448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 271448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 271448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1043 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP OF THE NORTHEAST
SHOWING ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 717 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE TO CAPTURE
LATEST CONDITIONS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
THRU OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING 1ST
ROUND TO EXIT OUR REGION BY 15Z...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 18Z TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IT WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND DAMP
TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO LOWER 50S VALLEYS. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1043 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP OF THE NORTHEAST
SHOWING ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 717 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE TO CAPTURE
LATEST CONDITIONS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
THRU OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING 1ST
ROUND TO EXIT OUR REGION BY 15Z...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 18Z TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IT WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND DAMP
TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO LOWER 50S VALLEYS. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1043 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP OF THE NORTHEAST
SHOWING ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 717 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE TO CAPTURE
LATEST CONDITIONS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
THRU OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING 1ST
ROUND TO EXIT OUR REGION BY 15Z...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 18Z TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IT WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND DAMP
TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO LOWER 50S VALLEYS. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1043 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP OF THE NORTHEAST
SHOWING ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 717 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE TO CAPTURE
LATEST CONDITIONS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
THRU OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING 1ST
ROUND TO EXIT OUR REGION BY 15Z...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 18Z TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IT WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND DAMP
TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO LOWER 50S VALLEYS. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1043 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP OF THE NORTHEAST
SHOWING ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 717 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE TO CAPTURE
LATEST CONDITIONS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
THRU OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING 1ST
ROUND TO EXIT OUR REGION BY 15Z...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 18Z TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IT WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND DAMP
TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO LOWER 50S VALLEYS. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1043 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP OF THE NORTHEAST
SHOWING ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO ROTATE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AND NORTHERN MAINE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 717 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE TO CAPTURE
LATEST CONDITIONS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
THRU OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING 1ST
ROUND TO EXIT OUR REGION BY 15Z...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 18Z TODAY. BOTTOM LINE IT WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND DAMP
TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO LOWER 50S VALLEYS. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND 

000
FXUS61 KALY 271123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 271123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RA
00004000
INFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 271123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 271123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 
00004000
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST CONDITIONS.
CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ROTATING THRU OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING 1ST ROUND TO EXIT OUR REGION
BY 15Z...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z TODAY. BOTTOM LINE
IT WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND DAMP TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S MTNS TO LOWER 50S VALLEYS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST CONDITIONS.
CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ROTATING THRU OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING 1ST ROUND TO EXIT OUR REGION
BY 15Z...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z TODAY. BOTTOM LINE
IT WILL BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND DAMP TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S MTNS TO LOWER 50S VALLEYS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271112
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH DEEP FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
TRENDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NY AND VT
TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME LIFT FROM WEAK WAA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS. BEST RIBBON OF UVV`S AND
DEEP 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATES THRU OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA
BTWN 12Z-21Z TODAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING POSSIBLE TWD
EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND VERY LIGHT
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE NEK OF VT...WITH
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 3000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT JUMP TO
SUMMIT LEVEL BY MIDDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS TREND TWD 0C. IF
PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO COOL COLUMN A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM MT
MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. OTHERWISE...GIV
00004000
EN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER/MID 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF MAINLY OVC MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SCT IFR AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 15Z. DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCT -RA/-SHRAS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION TODAY/THIS EVENING AS PESKY UPPER LOW
LINGERS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO
IMPROVE AFTER 00Z WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF -SHRAS TAPERING OFF.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MAINLY SCT/BKN VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME SCT MVFR AND SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 12Z TUE TO 12Z WED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 271029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 271029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE 
00004000
AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 271029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 271029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRA
00004000
IN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 270835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KENX RADAR
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THESE ARE SLOWING
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR MOST
AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ 
00004000
GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 270835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KENX RADAR
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THESE ARE SLOWING
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR MOST
AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 270835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KENX RADAR
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THESE ARE SLOWING
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR MOST
AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY
00004000
 WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 270835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KENX RADAR
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THESE ARE SLOWING
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR MOST
AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 270835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KENX RADAR
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THESE ARE SLOWING
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR MOST
AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MOND
00004000
AY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH DEEP FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
TRENDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NY AND VT
TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME LIFT FROM WEAK WAA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS. BEST RIBBON OF UVV`S AND
DEEP 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATES THRU OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA
BTWN 12Z-21Z TODAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING POSSIBLE TWD
EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND VERY LIGHT
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE NEK OF VT...WITH
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 3000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT JUMP TO
SUMMIT LEVEL BY MIDDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS TREND TWD 0C. IF
PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO COOL COLUMN A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM MT
MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER/MID 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ROTATE SSW INTO THE REGION FROM UPPER LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
CONDS TEND TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH DEEP FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
TRENDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NY AND VT
TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME LIFT FROM WEAK WAA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS. BEST RIBBON OF UVV`S AND
DEEP 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATES THRU OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA
BTWN 12Z-21Z TODAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING POSSIBLE TWD
EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND VERY LIGHT
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE NEK OF VT...WITH
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 3000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT JUMP TO
SUMMIT LEVEL BY MIDDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS TREND TWD 0C. IF
PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO COOL COLUMN A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM MT
MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER/MID 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ROTATE SSW INTO THE REGION FROM UPPER LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
CONDS TEND TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH DEEP FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
TRENDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NY AND VT
TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME LIFT FROM WEAK WAA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS. BEST RIBBON OF UVV`S AND
DEEP 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATES THRU OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA
BTWN 12Z-21Z TODAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING POSSIBLE TWD
EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND VERY LIGHT
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE NEK OF VT..
00004000
.WITH
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 3000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT JUMP TO
SUMMIT LEVEL BY MIDDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS TREND TWD 0C. IF
PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO COOL COLUMN A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM MT
MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER/MID 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ROTATE SSW INTO THE REGION FROM UPPER LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
CONDS TEND TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH DEEP FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
TRENDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NY AND VT
TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME LIFT FROM WEAK WAA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS. BEST RIBBON OF UVV`S AND
DEEP 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATES THRU OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA
BTWN 12Z-21Z TODAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING POSSIBLE TWD
EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND VERY LIGHT
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE NEK OF VT...WITH
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 3000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT JUMP TO
SUMMIT LEVEL BY MIDDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS TREND TWD 0C. IF
PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO COOL COLUMN A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM MT
MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER/MID 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID
WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON
WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN
850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE
SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE
30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A
MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER
SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH
OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT
IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD
IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT
NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ROTATE SSW INTO THE REGION FROM UPPER LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
CONDS TEND TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270532
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST SFC OBS. A LARGE BLOCK CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE
CONUS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING FROM
EAST TO WEST ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK WAA LIFT FROM THE
NORTH...WL PRODUCE ON AND OFF OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THRU 12Z EXPECTED. TEMPS WL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO L/M 40S
WARMER VALLEYS. ALL COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ROTATE SSW INTO THE REGION FROM UPPER LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
CONDS TEND TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN 
00004000
THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHE
00004000
R LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UP
00004000
PER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACT
00004000
S THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY F
00004000
ALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBAN
00004000
CES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FOREC
00004000
AST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST SFC OBS. A LARGE BLOCK CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE
CONUS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING FROM
EAST TO WEST ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK WAA LIFT FROM THE
NORTH...WL PRODUCE ON AND OFF OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THRU 12Z EXPECTED. TEMPS WL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO L/M 40S
WARMER VALLEYS. ALL COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GRE
00000276
AT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
00004000
 GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST SFC OBS. A LARGE BLOCK CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE
CONUS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING FROM
EAST TO WEST ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK WAA LIFT FROM THE
NORTH...WL PRODUCE ON AND OFF OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THRU 12Z EXPECTED. TEMPS WL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO L/M 40S
WARMER VALLEYS. ALL COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST SFC OBS. A LARGE BLOCK CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE
CONUS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING FROM
EAST TO WEST ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK WAA LIFT FROM THE
NORTH...WL PRODUCE ON AND OFF OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THRU 12Z EXPECTED. TEMPS WL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO L/M 40S
WARMER VALLEYS. ALL COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST SFC OBS. A LARGE BLOCK CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE
CONUS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING FROM
EAST TO WEST ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK WAA LIFT FROM THE
NORTH...WL PRODUCE ON AND OFF OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THRU 12Z EXPECTED. TEMPS WL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO L/M 40S
WARMER VALLEYS. ALL COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SL
00004000
OWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING...AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE INTO FORECAST AREA FROM QUEBEC AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS FOR SAME REASON. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING...AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE INTO FORECAST AREA FROM QUEBEC AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS FOR SAME REASON. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING...AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE INTO FORECAST AREA FROM QUEBEC AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
00004000
RE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS FOR SAME REASON. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING...AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE INTO FORECAST AREA FROM QUEBEC AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS FOR SAME REASON. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING...AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE INTO FORECAST AREA FROM QUEBEC AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS FOR SAME REASON. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LO
000025AC
W.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK LATE THIS EVENING...AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE INTO FORECAST AREA FROM QUEBEC AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS FOR SAME REASON. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KALY 270224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1024 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER
DIFFICULT TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
MIXED IN WITH SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME C
0000120C
LOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-
00004000
50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1024 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER
DIFFICULT TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
MIXED IN WITH SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...PERHAPS MIXED IN WITH SOME WET
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSH
00004000
ORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...PERHAPS MIXED IN WITH SOME WET
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...PERHAPS MIXED IN WITH SOME WET
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR 
00004000
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...PERHAPS MIXED IN WITH SOME WET
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER T
00004000
HAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 649 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRIFTING
SOUTH. MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK THROUGH 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 649 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRIFTING
SOUTH. MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK THROUGH 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 649 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRIFTING
SOUTH. MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK THROUGH 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NOR
00004000
THERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 649 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRIFTING
SOUTH. MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK THROUGH 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR INITIALLY, BUT DETERIORATING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (AFTER 09Z). COULD SEE
PERIODS IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z AS WELL.

PESKY DISTURBANCE OVER THE CANADA MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING. GRADUAL LOWERING IS
EXPECTED TO MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VISBYS IN THE 4-6SM RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER, IT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS.
RATHER THAN HIT CEILINGS HARD WITH THIS ISSUANCE, I`VE SHOWN
SCT008 DECK IN TAFS TO AT LEAST SHOW IDEA THAT IFR CEILINGS COULD
BE AROUND. WINDS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY.

LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FOR
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 649 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRIFTING
SOUTH. MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK THROUGH 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 649 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRIFTING
SOUTH. MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK THROUGH 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S
00004000
 ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 649 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRIFTING
SOUTH. MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK THROUGH 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 649 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRIFTING
SOUTH. MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK THROUGH 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 649 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRIFTING
SOUTH. MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS EASING BACK THROUGH 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDA
00004000
Y...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCRE
00004000
ASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGH
00004000
T IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA
00004000
.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BE
00004000
TWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT
THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT
00004000
 OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT
THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT
THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT
THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESUL
00004000
TING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261956
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AT
THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO ROTATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
SHOWERS...MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GFS MOS MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ON
TUESDAY...SO HAVE USED THIS GUIDANCE. NAM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TOO WARM ON TUESDAY...GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK,
AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A
COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES
BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S W
00004000
HERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A
BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO
THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE
THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A
HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
231 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
231 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
231 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TREND
00004000
S ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING
AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH
IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN
AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS
IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
STATION AFTER 14Z.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE
00004000
 WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE
00003E53
.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL P
00004000
RECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR
00003EFF
 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT
MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KALY 261717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
00004000

EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDE
000012B7
D PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECTING THESE
AREAS TO CLOUD OVER LATER TODAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A BAND OF 
00004000
THICKER CLOUD COVER IS
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AT THIS TIME AS WELL. WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOW TO SEE
HOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS...BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE A BIT WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH
TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY
AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W
ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN
FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECTING THESE
AREAS TO CLOUD OVER LATER TODAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A BAND OF THICKER CLOUD COVER IS
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AT THIS TIME AS WELL. WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOW TO SEE
HOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS...BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE A BIT WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH
TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY
AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W
ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN
FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECTING THESE
AREAS TO CLOUD OVER LATER TODAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A BAND OF THICKER CLOUD COVER IS
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AT THIS TIME AS WELL. WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOW TO SEE
HOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS...BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE A BIT WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH
TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY
AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W
ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN
FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H T
00004000
EMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECTING THESE
AREAS TO CLOUD OVER LATER TODAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A BAND OF THICKER CLOUD COVER IS
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AT THIS TIME AS WELL. WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOW TO SEE
HOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS...BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE A BIT WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH
TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY
AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W
ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN
FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE A
00004000
T THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OV
00004000
ERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MOR
00004000
E SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT
OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION
00004000
 OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT
OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT
OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERI
00004000
ODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT
OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT
OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CEILINGS STILL STUBBORNLY OVC BUT IN THE
VFR CATEGORY AND MAY DIP INTO MVFR FOR A BIT OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY KMPV AND KSLK. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS.

MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY...CAN`T RULE OUT INSTABILITY SHOWER BUT
DON.T HAVE IN MOST TAFS AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH. DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH SOME -SHRA FOR NRN AREAS BY 06Z MON AND LIGHT WINDS

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT
OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS B
00004000
TWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CEILINGS STILL STUBBORNLY OVC BUT IN THE
VFR CATEGORY AND MAY DIP INTO MVFR FOR A BIT OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY KMPV AND KSLK. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS.

MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY...CAN`T RULE OUT INSTABILITY SHOWER BUT
DON.T HAVE IN MOST TAFS AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH. DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH SOME -SHRA FOR NRN AREAS BY 06Z MON AND LIGHT WINDS

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT
OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CEILINGS STILL STUBBORNLY OVC BUT IN THE
VFR CATEGORY AND MAY DIP INTO MVFR FOR A BIT OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY KMPV AND KSLK. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS.

MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY...CAN`T RULE OUT INSTABILITY SHOWER BUT
DON.T HAVE IN MOST TAFS AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH. DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH SOME -SHRA FOR NRN AREAS BY 06Z MON AND LIGHT WINDS

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT
OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CEILINGS STILL STUBBORNLY OVC BUT IN THE
VFR CATEGORY AND MAY DIP INTO MVFR FOR A BIT OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY KMPV AND KSLK. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS.

MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY...CAN`T RULE OUT INSTABILITY SHOWER BUT
DON.T HAVE IN MOST TAFS AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH. DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH SOME -SHRA FOR NRN AREAS BY 06Z MON AND LIGHT WINDS

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN S
00004000
HOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 261033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
00004000
GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...G
00004000
JM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 261027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA
00004000
 RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 261027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH