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000088C6000
FXUS61 KALY 191419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1019 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ALONG THE NYS/CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PASS THROUGH
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SFC TROUGH
PASSAGE...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OCCUR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH COULD REACH 25-30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 825-850 MB IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DESPITE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...STILL EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESP IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WHERE ADDED DOWNSLOPING
MAY GIVE A FURTHER BOOST IN TEMPS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAINLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS POSSIBLY BARELY REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A DRY...CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
RATHER COLD LEVELS FOR MID APRIL BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...WITH EVEN SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LOWER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SHOULD WINDS
PERSIST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD
OCCUR.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...EXPECT SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH 60-65 IN VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ESP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...PERHAPS REACHING 10-20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...TRICKY CALL ON MIN TEMPS...AS A SOUTH WIND...SOME
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER THAN SAT NT/SUN AM. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 30S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AS A
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD
THE REGION WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MOST OF
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF MONDAY...AND ONLY REACHING
N/W AREAS MON NT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. SO...KEEPING MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
INDICATED FOR MON NT FOR FAR N/W AREAS LATE. FURTHER LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW MON MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A RATHER MILD MON NT IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH MOST MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WET IN MOST AREAS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTH
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS MOST OF TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSS THE REGION SO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY. SO AFTER A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...ALTHOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WHICH ENDS AT 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SKC MUCH OF THE TIME
WITH JUST A FEW PASSING CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS UNTIL MID
MORNING...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ON TODAY. THE WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...
     LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO 5-15 MPH...AND SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 5-15 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
WILL THEN DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER HAS DROPPED TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
THESE FEATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A RATHER DREARY START TO
SATURDAY WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOWER-
ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 1500 FT (AS PER WEBCAMS AND BTV-4 BUFKIT
THERMAL PROFILES). HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INDICATE AREAL
COVERAGE WORDING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION. WITH STILL A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS BACK ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC...FEEL HIGHS MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES TOO WARM. THOUGH SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH A POST-FRONTAL
COLD AND DRY ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY ONLY SUPPORT
HIGHS INTO THE 40S...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ONCE SKIES
DO CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY (PEAKING OUT AROUND 30 MPH) AS COLD
ADVECTION ESTABLISHES BETTER MIXING DEPTHS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING IS DELIVERING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING...HANGING ON IN EASTERN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITES THE LONGEST. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RUT ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING OR ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR...MAINLY DUE TO SOME LOWER CEILINGS POST-FRONT
IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SLK IS SEEING SOME IFR. IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z IS
FORECAST WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS LIKELY.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE BORDER HELPING TO ENHANCE
PRECIP SLIGHTLY. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES
WILL BECOME SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 850
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...UP TO 25
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING IS DELIVERING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING...HANGING ON IN EASTERN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITES THE LONGEST. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RUT ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING OR ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR...MAINLY DUE TO SOME LOWER CEILINGS POST-FRONT
IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SLK IS SEEING SOME IFR. IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z IS
FORECAST WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS LIKELY.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 191050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY...UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING IS DELIVERING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING...HANGING ON IN EASTERN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITES THE LONGEST. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RUT ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING OR ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR...MAINLY DUE TO SOME LOWER CEILINGS POST-FRONT
IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SLK IS SEEING SOME IFR. IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z IS
FORECAST WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS LIKELY.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 191024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PASS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG THE NYS/CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PASS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH
MID MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT
OCCUR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT PASSES. THEN...FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH COULD REACH 25-30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 825-850 MB IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DESPITE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...STILL EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESP IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WHERE ADDED DOWNSLOPING
MAY GIVE A FURTHER BOOST IN TEMPS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAINLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS POSSIBLY BARELY REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A DRY...CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
RATHER COLD LEVELS FOR MID APRIL BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...WITH EVEN SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LOWER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SHOULD WINDS
PERSIST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD
OCCUR.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...EXPECT SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH 60-65 IN VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ESP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...PERHAPS REACHING 10-20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...TRICKY CALL ON MIN TEMPS...AS A SOUTH WIND...SOME
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER THAN SAT NT/SUN AM. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 30S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AS A
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD
THE REGION WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MOST OF
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF MONDAY...AND ONLY REACHING
N/W AREAS MON NT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. SO...KEEPING MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
INDICATED FOR MON NT FOR FAR N/W AREAS LATE. FURTHER LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW MON MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A RATHER MILD MON NT IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH MOST MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WET IN MOST AREAS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTH
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS MOST OF TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSS THE REGION SO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY. SO AFTER A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...ALTHOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WHICH ENDS AT 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SKC MUCH OF THE TIME
WITH JUST A FEW PASSING CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS UNTIL MID
MORNING...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ON TODAY. THE WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPA
00004000
CT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...
...LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO 5-15 MPH...AND SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 5-15 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
WILL THEN DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER HAS DROPPED TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
507 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY...UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY
S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 190846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PASS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. EARLIER LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE
DISSIPATED AND/OR MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA
POISED TO PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING...SOME ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH MID MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SFC TROUGH...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OCCUR.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT PASSES. THEN...FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH COULD REACH 25-30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 825-850 MB IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DESPITE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...STILL EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESP IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WHERE ADDED DOWNSLOPING
MAY GIVE A FURTHER BOOST IN TEMPS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAINLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS POSSIBLY BARELY REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A DRY...CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
RATHER COLD LEVELS FOR MID APRIL BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...WITH EVEN SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LOWER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SHOULD WINDS
PERSIST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD
OCCUR.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...EXPECT SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH 60-65 IN VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ESP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...PERHAPS REACHING 10-20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...TRICKY CALL ON MIN TEMPS...AS A SOUTH WIND...SOME
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER THAN SAT NT/SUN AM. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 30S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AS A
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD
THE REGION WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MOST OF
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF MONDAY...AND ONLY REACHING
N/W AREAS MON NT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. SO...KEEPING MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
INDICATED FOR MON NT FOR FAR N/W AREAS LATE. FURTHER LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW MON MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A RATHER MILD MON NT IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH MOST MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WET IN MOST AREAS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTH
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS MOST OF TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSS THE REGION SO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY. SO AFTER A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...ALTHOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WHICH ENDS AT 06Z SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY SKIES WILL BECOME FEW060 TO SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND GUSTY AT TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...
...LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO 5-15 MPH...AND SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 5-15 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
WILL THEN DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER HAS DROPPED TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT
00003FC8
 SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK
HOWEVER...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING
AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A
WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO
START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW
WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING BACK
INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT WE`LL
ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY
S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK
HOWEVER...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING
AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A
WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY
S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 190528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS
STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WE
EXPECT SOME OF THESE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS...BUT AGAIN...WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE THAN ABOUT 2
HOURS AGO. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

TRICKY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AS SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLIER HAVE ALLOWED SOME TEMPS TO DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SARATOGA REGION...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...WHILE RISING IN OTHER AREAS AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN. OVERALL...EXPECT A GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS
IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CLOUDS PASS BY...AND
SOME WIND PICKS UP. TEMPS ARE STILL LIKELY TO DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FURTHER E ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...BEFORE
RISING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL IN ABOUT 2 OR MORE HOURS AS THE
CLOUDS AND SOME WIND ALSO DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE BACK AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR.  ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.  ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE.  THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE T
00004000
REND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WHICH ENDS AT 06Z SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY SKIES WILL BECOME FEW060 TO SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND GUSTY AT TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

     RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1033 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK
HOWEVER...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING
AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A
WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY
S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1049 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1033 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK
HOWEVER...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING
AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A
WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NY THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT OVERNIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIR TRRN MAY ALSO BE OBSCD BETWEEN 04-09Z. A WIND
SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS INITIALLY S-SE ACROSS VT
AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING
FROPA. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G24KT.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 190218
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LINE OF BROKEN
SHOWERS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
FROM THE 00Z RAP/HRRR AND THE NEW ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z NAM CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FOR THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND TWEAKED POPS/WX PER
OBSERVATIONS AND AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST TRENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT WITH MEAGER QPF SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
00004000
. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR.  ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.  ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE.  THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE TREND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
00Z/SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY CLOUD COVER WITH JUST A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KALB. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CIGS
WITH INCREASING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO KPSF.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

     RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 182352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...UPSTREAM RADAR DEPICTS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
KROC-KART-KMSS WITH A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EASTWARD. AS NOTED IN
UPSTREAM METARS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LOW WITH
CEILINGS ABOVE 5K FEET. HRRR REFLECTIVITIES SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NORTH OF KALB TOWARD OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO NO
CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX AT THIS TIME AND JUST A MINOR TWEAK TO THE
ONGOING HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT WITH MEAGER QPF SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR.  ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.  ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE.  THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE TREND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
00Z/SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY CLOUD COVER WITH JUST A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KALB. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CIGS
WITH INCREASING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO KPSF.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

     RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 182341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 724 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING
INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SCHEDULE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO ADIRONDACKS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE PICS...AND TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT BY INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT
CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING
RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF
QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A
TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS
THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 
00004000
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NY THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT OVERNIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIR TRRN MAY ALSO BE OBSCD BETWEEN 04-09Z. A WIND
SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS INITIALLY S-SE ACROSS VT
AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING
FROPA. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G24KT.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 182324
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 724 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING
INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SCHEDULE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO ADIRONDACKS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE PICS...AND TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT BY INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT
CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING
RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF
QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A
TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS
THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 182323
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 717 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING
INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SCHEDULE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO ADIRONDACKS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE PICS...AND TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT BY INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO GRIDS.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME
PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE
30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM
RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT
EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE WINDS
TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST. LOWS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 181950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A THICKER BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. ALSO...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE A BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK FARTHER EAST LATE. SO JUST
EXPECTING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS BUT WITH MEAGER QPF SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
30S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR.  ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SU
00004000
NNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.  ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE.  THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE TREND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AT KPOU HAVE ERODED
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AT KGFL FROM 06Z TO
12Z. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE...ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE A
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE....ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS
TIME. ANY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 15Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

...RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME
PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE
30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM
RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT
EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE WINDS
TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST. LOWS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181912
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME
PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE
30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM
RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT
EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE WINDS
TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST. LOWS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT FRIDAY...IT`S A LOVELY SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH TEMPS JUST ABOUT 50 DEGREES OR WARMER UNDER
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECK. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
EASTWARD INTO VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...
00004000

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 181737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ARE TRANSPARENT ENOUGH TO MENTION PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THICKER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 6 PM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AT KPOU HAVE ERODED
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AT KGFL FROM 06Z TO
12Z. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE...ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE A
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE....ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS
TIME. ANY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 15Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/LFM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT FRIDAY...IT`S A LOVELY SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH TEMPS JUST ABOUT 50 DEGREES OR WARMER UNDER
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECK. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
EASTWARD INTO VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK THEN AFT 05Z KBTV/KPBG/KMPV/KRUT.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND 
00004000
THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT AND 12Z BTV. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK
AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT
VSBY TOO MUCH EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR VSBY IN -SHSN AT KSLK 8-12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....ANY -SHRA/SHRA ENDING THEN BECOMING
VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH G20-25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 181500
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1100 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. HOWEVER DO
HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500 FEET ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. INDICATIONS ARE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT AND BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY AROUND 5
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
PARTICULARLY THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. HOWEVER DO
HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500 FEET ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...KPOU. INDICATIONS ARE THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIFT AND BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TONIGHT CLOUD
COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
PARTICULARLY AT KALB. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/LFM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1022 AM EDT FRIDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT OBS
TRENDS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY FROM MORNING
LOWS...PUSHING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH A LITTLE LAG ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING
TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING TO OUR WEST...TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MORE TOWARDS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...BUT BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK THEN AFT 05Z KBTV/KPBG/KMPV/KRUT.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT AND 12Z BTV. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK
AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT
VSBY TOO MUCH EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR VSBY IN -SHSN AT KSLK 8-12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....ANY -SHRA/SHRA ENDING THEN BECOMING
VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH G20-25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 730 AM
UPDATE THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TODAY WILL
START OFF WITH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK FROM GREAT LAKES NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DU
00004000
RING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK THEN AFT 05Z KBTV/KPBG/KMPV/KRUT.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AMD GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT AND 12Z BTV. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK
AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT
VSBY TOO MUCH EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR VSBY IN -SHSN AT KSLK 8-12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....ANY -SHRA/SHRA ENDING THEN BECOMING
VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH G20-25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 181131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 730 AM
UPDATE THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TODAY WILL
START OFF WITH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK FROM GREAT LAKES NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AMD GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT VSBY TOO
MUCH.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06 TO 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AT KSLK.

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....BECOMING VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW
WITH G25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 181032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND SOME PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...AS A
THICKENING VEIL OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPS.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CLOUDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY POOLING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA. SOME OF THESE
MAY EVENTUALLY TRY TO DRIFT NORTH...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ERODE AS IT REACHES OUR REGION.

AFTER OUR CHILLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY GUST TO
AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY OVER 20 MPH IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPOU WHERE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH
MAINLY BKN250 CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
OVC120 AND REMAIN SO TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLE
00004000
YS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/LFM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 180856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
456 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...TODAY WILL START OFF WITH SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM GREAT LAKES
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR
CWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRONT
APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AMD GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT VSBY TOO
MUCH.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06 TO 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AT KSLK.

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....BECOMING VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW
WITH G25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 180820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND SOME PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...AS A THICKENING
VEIL OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH SEASONABLE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY GUST TO
AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY OVER 20 MPH IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVING WAY TO
BKN200 CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVC120 BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE ESE WINDS
WILL BE ARND 8 KTS. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA/LFM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 180757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT FRIDAY...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATE

00004000
WAS TO CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO
GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START THE
DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...MEAN BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL SOLUTION,
BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND EXACTLY
WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED AND HOW
FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY SO
HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C SHOULD HAVE
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL
BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST NORTHERLY
FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AMD GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT VSBY TOO
MUCH.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06 TO 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AT KSLK.

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....BECOMING VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH
G25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 180556
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT FRIDAY...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATE
WAS TO CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO
GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER
40S ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE
DRY ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A
VERY THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...MEAN BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AMD GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT VSBY TOO
MUCH.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06 TO 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AT KSLK.

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....BECOMING VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH
G25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 180525
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT FRIDAY...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATE
WAS TO CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO
GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER
40S ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE
DRY ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A
VERY THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...MEAN BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD... AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH 2330Z THURSDAY SHOWING MAINLY HIGH THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECTING SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 14Z-17Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 180519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED BREEZE...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTION
00004000
S OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD
ONCE AGAIN...CLOSER TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH GENERALLY 25-30 IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON RIVER
AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVING WAY TO
BKN200 CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVC120 BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE ESE WINDS
WILL BE ARND 8 KTS. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM

000
FXUS61 KALY 180510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND WIND FLOW
MAY PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED FORECAST MINS BY 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 20S
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
LOWER 30S NOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
REGION...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVING WAY TO
BKN200 CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVC120 BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE ESE WINDS
WILL BE ARND 8 KTS. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 180251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND
TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDA
00004000
Y...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 2330Z THURSDAY SHOWING MAINLY HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 14Z-17Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 180233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND WIND FLOW
MAY PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED FORECAST MINS BY 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 20S
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
LOWER 30S NOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
REGION...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT TO BKN CI/CS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...BKN CI/CS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM

000
FXUS61 KALY 180014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
814 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT...A THIN CANOPY OF CI/CS WAS ACROSS THE REGION
PER METARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THIS WILL THIN OUT FURTHER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO AN
OTHERWISE ONGOING EXCELLENT FORECAST.

AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR NEAR TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN THE
LOWER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
10 TO 15 MPH IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT TO BKN CI/CS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...BKN CI/CS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDA
00004000
Y: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 172347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY CHANGE WITH LATEST UPDATE WAS TO
INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS AND BLEND WITH EVENING
FORECAST. QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 2330Z THURSDAY SHOWING MAINLY HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 14Z-17Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 172329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY CHANGE WITH LATEST UPDATE WAS TO
INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS AND BLEND WITH EVENING
FORECAST. QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 172029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR NEAR TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN THE
LOWER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
10 TO 15 MPH IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE TAF SITES AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CALM WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.
00004000
..
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171935
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE
WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
307 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 171732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE
WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMPANY OBSERVATIONS OF PROLONGED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALB
000007B8
ANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY 
00004000
TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE TAF
SITES AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY WEST CANADA CREEK AND AT
FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH ARE BOTH CURRENTLY HOLDING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON THE FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS WILL BE
DROPPED LATER TODAY. AS FOR RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER...IT IS
IN MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 171718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 171701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE
WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMPANY OBSERVATIONS OF PROLONGED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE
WEST CANADA CREEK WITH BOTH JUST A HAIR ABOUT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...AT FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH IS ALSO
CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS
WILL BE DROPPED TODAY. RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS IN MAJOR
FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IS FALLS BELOW FOOD STAGE. WILL UPDATE
STATEMENTS WITH UPDATED FORECASTS LATE
00002FB8
R THIS MORNING.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 171454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS REGION. THEY ARE THICKER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. DID TWEAK AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A BIT. UPDATED
WINDS WILL LATEST GUIDANCE. CIRRUS SHOULD THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE
WEST CANADA CREEK WITH BOTH JUST A HAIR ABOUT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...AT FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH IS ALSO
CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS
WILL BE DROPPED TODAY. RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS IN MAJOR
FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IS FALLS BELOW FOOD STAGE. WILL UPDATE
STATEMENTS WITH UPDATED FORECASTS LATER THIS MORNING.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

      
      

  
    
  
  
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