YOUR WEATHER  


Customize
Your Weather
   (Set Options)
 
Select US/Int'l City
U.S. State/City List
Canadian Weather
International Weather


Enter "City, State", ZIP Code or ICAO:  Customize | NOAA Streaming Audio
Now/Forecast Hourly Forecast Warnings/Watches Special Radars Tropics/Satellite
VT Summary VT Climate Data VT Discussion VT Forecast VT Public Info VT Fire Weather
Vermont State Discussion:
Use Ctrl+F to search for specific keywords

00008A0F000
FXUS61 KALY 081741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF CAPE MAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND 976 MB...IS
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL
THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE FA AND
AS A RESULT VERY DRY AIR IS WORKING SOUTHWARD. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE CAUSING THE PRECIP
TO INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THE ONE AREA WHERE
WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO BE SATURATED ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO REACH
THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A
FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SEEMS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD AS SEEN IN
THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH PERSISTENT DROPS SEEN THIS MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TOO REVEALS CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW WARMING OVER
THE REGION AND 1KM 1-MIN SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER CENTRAL NY.  WHILE SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...IT NOW APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION IS DIMINISHING WHICH FAVORS A MORE IMPROVE AVIATION
FORECAST.  WE WILL PLACE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SNOW THAT IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR.  A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT 10KTS
OR LESS.

AS UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 081739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF CAPE MAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND 976 MB...IS
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL
THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE FA AND
AS A RESULT VERY DRY AIR IS WORKING SOUTHWARD. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE CAUSINGTHE
PRECIP TO INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THE ONE
AREA WHERE WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO BE SATURATED ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A
FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1227 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081720
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1220 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS
00004000
 THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL A
00004000
CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BE
00004000
FORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEP
00002A57
T A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KALY 081138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND
980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST
CT...AND FAR SOUTHERN RI/MASS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD...AND REACH INTO NW CT BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE 10Z 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW
CT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY WIND UP BEING IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS LATER TODAY. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR 
00004000
CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 081138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND
980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST
CT...AND FAR SOUTHERN RI/MASS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD...AND REACH INTO NW CT BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE 10Z 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW
CT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY WIND UP BEING IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS LATER TODAY. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 081138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND
980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST
CT...AND FAR SOUTHERN RI/MASS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD...AND REACH INTO NW CT BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE 10Z 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW
CT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY WIND UP BEING IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS LATER TODAY. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
00003FAE
 ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 080936
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
436 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 436 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA...AROUND 980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO
EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES
ARE COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG
ISLAND. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND 06Z HRRR GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST
THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS NW CT BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHEAST.
EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...3KM HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT 2-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW CT BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND DUE TO STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...05Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200
MILES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING TO
ITS NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE
COD MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THIS ALL MEANS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKENING AND LOWER AFTER SUNRISE.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWER TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KPOU DURING THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 080920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER
00004000
.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 080920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 080920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 080852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK F
00004000
ROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 080621
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1247 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT A QUIET EVENING WITH SOME CIRRUS
OVER THE REGION. WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE EVENING. I CONTINUED TO DROP MIN
TEMPS BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WITH LOW TO MID TEENS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KALY 080609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK...THERE WILL BE
THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EST...IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
AND WELL WRAPPED UP STORM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH A
SHIELD OF CLOUDS HEADED NORTHWARD TOWARDS UPSTATE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOUDY WITH THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. MOST AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY...ALTHOUGH THE 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD START SPREADING INTO NW CT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO MISS OUR AREA...HOWEVER...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GRAZE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL...AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST 00Z NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE 3KM HRRR. MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR
DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MODEL QPF IS FAIRLY
LIGHT...AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT SOME OF THIS PRECIP
INITIALLY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. STILL...CAN EXPECT A COATING
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NY...AND TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENLAND...THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS
POINT...THIS SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
TRENDS...IF AN ADVISORY COULD POSSIBLY BE NEEED FOR PARTS OF NW CT
OR WESTERN MASS.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. N-NE
WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...05Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200
MILES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING TO
ITS NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE
COD MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THIS ALL MEANS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKENING AND LOWER AFTER SUNRISE.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWER TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KPOU DURING THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TOMORROW...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF
HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 080241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR
REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE

00004000
WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL
FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
INCREASING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE COASTAL CYCLONE NEAR COASTAL
NC. SKYCOVER WAS ADJUSTED FOR THE INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING AND LOWERING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 TRENDS ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE
LIGHT SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COASTAL WAVE...THAT WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. THE POPS WERE REDUCED ACROSS NW CT AND THE SRN BERKS UNTIL
12Z-15Z/MON. EXPECT A COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY
MID AND U20S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT THE CT RIVER VALLEY EAST
OF THE SRN GREENS WHERE SOME LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
FROM WELL EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER
SRN LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FCST AREA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A COASTAL SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU PRIOR TO 12Z/MON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SOME LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPSF BY 12Z IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KPSF-KPOU BTWN 17Z-19Z...WHEN MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KALB-KGFL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE 21Z/MON-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME...AND
VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB WITH LIGHT SNOW AT 22Z/MON.

THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 080241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR
REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL
FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
INCREASING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE COASTAL CYCLONE NEAR COASTAL
NC. SKYCOVER WAS ADJUSTED FOR THE INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING AND LOWERING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 TRENDS ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE
LIGHT SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COASTAL WAVE...THAT WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. THE POPS WERE REDUCED ACROSS NW CT AND THE SRN BERKS UNTIL
12Z-15Z/MON. EXPECT A COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY
MID AND U20S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT THE CT RIVER VALLEY EAST
OF THE SRN GREENS WHERE SOME LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
FROM WELL EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER
SRN LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FCST AREA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A COASTAL SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU PRIOR TO 12Z/MON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SOME LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPSF BY 12Z IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KPSF-KPOU BTWN 17Z-19Z...WHEN MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KALB-KGFL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE 21Z/MON-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME...AND
VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB WITH LIGHT SNOW AT 22Z/MON.

THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 080241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR
REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL
FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
INCREASING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE COASTAL CYCLONE NEAR COASTAL
NC. SKYCOVER WAS ADJUSTED FOR THE INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING AND LOWERING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 TRENDS ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE
LIGHT SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COASTAL WAVE...THAT WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. THE POPS WERE REDUCED ACROSS NW CT AND THE SRN BERKS UNTIL
12Z-15Z/MON. EXPECT A COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY
MID AND U20S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT THE CT RIVER VALLEY EAST
OF THE SRN GREENS WHERE SOME LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
FROM WELL EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER
SRN LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FCST AREA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL

00008000
BRIEFLY BUILD IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A COASTAL SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU PRIOR TO 12Z/MON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SOME LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPSF BY 12Z IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KPSF-KPOU BTWN 17Z-19Z...WHEN MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KALB-KGFL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE 21Z/MON-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME...AND
VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB WITH LIGHT SNOW AT 22Z/MON.

THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 080157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
857 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 856 PM EST SUNDAY...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY AND HAVE NEEDED TO ADJUST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
BETWEEN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES
BRINGING BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS
EXCEPT MVFR CIG KPBG. CIGS LIFTED NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
STAY PUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH KPBG MVFR BCMG VFR. PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL
SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH VCSH AT KRUT/KMPV. POPS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 23Z KBTV/KPBG/KSLK HOWEVER TOO FAR OUT IN
TAF PERIOD TO INCLUDE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 080006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
706 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH
CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 632 PM EST...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS EVENING AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY
BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE COASTAL
SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINAS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR CLOUDS.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FA AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM WELL
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER SRN
LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS FA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXCEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A COASTAL SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU PRIOR TO 12Z/MON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SOME LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPSF BY 12Z IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KPSF-KPOU BTWN 17Z-19Z...WHEN MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KALB-KGFL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE 21Z/MON-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME...AND
VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB WITH LIGHT SNOW AT 22Z/MON.

THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 080006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
706 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH
CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 632 PM EST...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS EVENING AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY
BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE COASTAL
SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINAS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR CLOUDS.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FA AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM WELL
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER SRN
LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS FA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXCEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A COASTAL SYSTEM.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU PRIOR TO 12Z/MON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SOME LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPSF BY 12Z IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KPSF-KPOU BTWN 17Z-19Z...WHEN MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KALB-KGFL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE 21Z/MON-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME...AND
VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB WITH LIGHT SNOW AT 22Z/MON.

THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 072333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 618 PM EST SUNDAY...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES... CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AREA IS IN BETWEEN DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH AND STORM OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
BETWEENAPPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES
BRINGING BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS
EXCEPT MVFR CIG KPBG. CIGS LIFTED NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
STAY PUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH KPBG MVFR BCMG VFR. PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL
SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH VCSH AT KRUT/KMPV. POPS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 23Z KBTV/KPBG/KSLK HOWEVER TOO FAR OUT IN
TAF PERIOD TO INCLUDE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 072333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 618 PM EST SUNDAY...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES... CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AREA IS IN BETWEEN DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH AND STORM OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
BETWEENAPPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES
BRINGING BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS
EXCEPT MVFR CIG KPBG. CIGS LIFTED NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
STAY PUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH KPBG MVFR BCMG VFR. PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL
SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH VCSH AT KRUT/KMPV. POPS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 23Z KBTV/KPBG/KSLK HOWEVER TOO FAR OUT IN
TAF PERIOD TO INCLUDE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 072333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 618 PM EST SUNDAY...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES... CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AREA IS IN BETWEEN DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH AND STORM OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL 
00008000
SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
BETWEENAPPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES
BRINGING BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS
EXCEPT MVFR CIG KPBG. CIGS LIFTED NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
STAY PUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH KPBG MVFR BCMG VFR. PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL
SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH VCSH AT KRUT/KMPV. POPS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 23Z KBTV/KPBG/KSLK HOWEVER TOO FAR OUT IN
TAF PERIOD TO INCLUDE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 072332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH
CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 632 PM EST...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS EVENING AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY
BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE COASTAL
SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINAS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR CLOUDS.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FA AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM WELL
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER SRN
LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS FA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXCEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 072332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH
CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 632 PM EST...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS EVENING AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY
BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE COASTAL
SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINAS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR CLOUDS.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FA AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM WELL
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER SRN
LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS FA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXCEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 072332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH
CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 632 PM EST...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS EVENING AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY
BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE COASTAL
SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINAS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR CLOUDS.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FA AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM WELL
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER SRN
LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS FA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXCEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 072319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 618 PM EST SUNDAY...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES... CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AREA IS IN BETWEEN DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH AND STORM OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS VFR/MVFR. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SOUTH INCLUDING RUT. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES BECOMING VFR. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS
WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF
SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 072059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST
GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL SET US UP FOR A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY
BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FA AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM WELL
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS FA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXCEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 072036
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER DEEP CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER
THE SE CONUS. MEANWHILE...OUR REGION CONTINUES TO BE IN FAST
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
DRY TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
BETWEEN SURFACE AND 800MB. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NE...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL TREND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
P
00008000
ERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS VFR/MVFR. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SOUTH INCLUDING RUT. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES BECOMING VFR. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS
WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF
SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 072031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.

FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS VFR/MVFR. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SOUTH INCLUDING RUT. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES BECOMING VFR. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS
WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF
SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
249 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST
GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL SET US UP FOR A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY
BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FA AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM WELL
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS FA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXCEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA...AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST ENCOUNTER WITH WIND CHILL FLAGS. SCT -SHSN
WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY LES WITH LESS THAN
AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
MORE WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071837
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST
GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL SET US UP FOR A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY
BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FA AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM WELL
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS FA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHEDBETWEEN
EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXCEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER. CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071837
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST
GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL SET US UP FOR A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY
BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FA AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM WELL
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS FA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHEDBETWEEN
EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXCEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER. CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071837
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST
GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL SET US UP FOR A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY
BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO UPPER 20S.

MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FA AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM WELL
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS FA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHEDBETWEEN
EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXCEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER. CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST
GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL SET US UP FOR A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST...MOST OF THE FA WAS MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE CLOUDS WERE STARTING
TO THIN OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON ..EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO
CALM WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY
BEFORE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST
AREAS...AROUND 20 NORTHERN AREAS.

DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WI
00004000
TH GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST MONDAY AND
AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATINGAROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER. CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST
GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL SET US UP FOR A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST...MOST OF THE FA WAS MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE CLOUDS WERE STARTING
TO THIN OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON ..EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO
CALM WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY
BEFORE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST
AREAS...AROUND 20 NORTHERN AREAS.

DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST MONDAY AND
AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATINGAROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER. CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST
GLANCING OUR REGION.  LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL SET US UP FOR A PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST...MOST OF THE FA WAS MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE CLOUDS WERE STARTING
TO THIN OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON ..EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO
CALM WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY
BEFORE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST
AREAS...AROUND 20 NORTHERN AREAS.

DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST MONDAY AND
AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATINGAROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER. CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERAT
0000085B
IONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.

FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD
00004000
 STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS MOSTLY MVFR. HAVE
GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES EXCEPT SLK VFR AFTER ABOUT 06Z MONDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS
MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.

FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS MOSTLY MVFR. HAVE
GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES EXCEPT SLK VFR AFTER ABOUT 06Z MONDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS
MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.

FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS MOSTLY MVFR. HAVE
GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES EXCEPT SLK VFR AFTER ABOUT 06Z MONDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS
MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.

FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 
000021D0
SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS MOSTLY MVFR. HAVE
GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES EXCEPT SLK VFR AFTER ABOUT 06Z MONDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS
MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.

FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS MOSTLY MVFR. HAVE
GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES EXCEPT SLK VFR AFTER ABOUT 06Z MONDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS
MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGH
00004000
T SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1223 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST...MOST OF THE FA WAS MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE CLOUDS WERE STARTING
TO THIN OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON ..EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO
CALM WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY
BEFORE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST
AREAS...AROUND 20 NORTHERN AREAS.

DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST MONDAY AND
AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS
BY MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. AS WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS BY THE TIME WE REACH DAY
BREAK. A COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU/KPSF. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
INCLUDING VCSH CONDITIONS AROUND 15Z MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPOU/KPSF AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL
TAF SITES AS OVERCAST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER 15Z MONDAY WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND A SNOW
SHOWER MAY AT TIMES BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVER NIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK....WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 T0 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071713
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.

FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071713
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.

FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
00004000
...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071713
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.

FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KALY 071700
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1200 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST...MOST OF THE FA WAS MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE CLOUDS WERE STARTING
TO THIN OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON ..EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO
CALM WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY
BEFORE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST
AREAS...AROUND 20 NORTHERN AREAS.

DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST MONDAY AND
AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS
BY MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071700
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1200 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST...MOST OF THE FA WAS MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE CLOUDS WERE STARTING
TO THIN OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON ..EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO
CALM WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY
BEFORE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST
AREAS...AROUND 20 NORTHERN AREAS.

DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST MONDAY AND
AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS
BY MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOW
00001FEA
EVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071700
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1200 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM EST...MOST OF THE FA WAS MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE CLOUDS WERE STARTING
TO THIN OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON ..EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO
CALM WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY
BEFORE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST
AREAS...AROUND 20 NORTHERN AREAS.

DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST MONDAY AND
AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND
THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS
BY MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
931 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

00004000
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071420
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
920 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 916 AM EST SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST
VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071420
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
920 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 916 AM EST SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST
VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EST SUNDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEV
00004000
EL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EST SUNDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KALY 071131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANC
00004000
E
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS IS ERODING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD
REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 071113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS IS ERODING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD
REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 070913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS IS ERODING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD
REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
T
00004000
EMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070911
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST SUNDAY...A QUIET FORECAST IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO
STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT
HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY
QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER THE OVERALL
THREAT IS LOW SO I ONLY CARRIED VCSH FOR KMSS AND KSLK WITH REST
OF THE TERMINALS REMAINING DRY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AND WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST SUNDAY...A QUIET FORECAST IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO
STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT
HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY
QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER THE OVERALL
THREAT IS LOW SO I ONLY CARRIED VCSH FOR KMSS AND KSLK WITH REST
OF THE TERMINALS REMAINING DRY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AND WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070555
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1251 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL THREAT OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. OTHERWISE SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WITH SOME
WIND...TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD FALL
LITTLE FROM CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELO
00004000
PING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER THE OVERALL
THREAT IS LOW SO I ONLY CARRIED VCSH FOR KMSS AND KSLK WITH REST
OF THE TERMINALS REMAINING DRY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AND WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070555
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1251 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL THREAT OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. OTHERWISE SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WITH SOME
WIND...TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD FALL
LITTLE FROM CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER THE OVERALL
THREAT IS LOW SO I ONLY CARRIED VCSH FOR KMSS AND KSLK WITH REST
OF THE TERMINALS REMAINING DRY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AND WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL

000
FXUS61 KALY 070539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GRIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA
CUT OFF WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE
OF -SNSH WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME
PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP
WILL TEMPS WILL TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 070539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GRIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNI
00004000
GHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA
CUT OFF WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE
OF -SNSH WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME
PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP
WILL TEMPS WILL TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 070539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GRIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA
CUT OFF WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE
OF -SNSH WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME
PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP
WILL TEMPS WILL TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 070539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GRIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIE
00004000
NTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA
CUT OFF WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE
OF -SNSH WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME
PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP
WILL TEMPS WILL TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 070539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GRIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA
CUT OFF WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE
OF -SNSH WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME
PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP
WILL TEMPS WILL TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 070518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHENR
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GFIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY C
00004000
OAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 070518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHENR
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GFIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 070300
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 958 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE NJ
AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS SE QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE
CANADA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
A SLIGHT CHC OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

00004000
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 924 PM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL THREAT OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. OTHERWISE SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WITH SOME
WIND...TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD FALL
LITTLE FROM CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN TAF SITES
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH 03Z. HANDLED IT WITH A VCSH.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES LOW AND ONLY KSLK GOT
A VCSH WITH THE REST REMAINING DRY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH WEAK
FRONT TO NORTH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 924 PM EST SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL THREAT OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. OTHERWISE SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WITH SOME
WIND...TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD FALL
LITTLE FROM CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN TAF SITES
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH 03Z. HANDLED IT WITH A VCSH.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES LOW AND ONLY KSLK GOT
A VCSH WITH THE REST REMAINING DRY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH WEAK
FRONT TO NORTH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 070005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AN
00004000
D
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 070005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 070005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 633 PM EST SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED A BIT THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA LOOKS TO BE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA AS IT MOVES EAST
TONIGHT. THUS ADDITIONAL FORCING TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A BIT LIMITED
AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS AND WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FACTOR INTO LOW
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S 
00004000
MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN TAF SITES
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH 03Z. HANDLED IT WITH A VCSH.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES LOW AND ONLY KSLK GOT
A VCSH WITH THE REST REMAINING DRY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH WEAK
FRONT TO NORTH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 633 PM EST SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED A BIT THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA LOOKS TO BE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA AS IT MOVES EAST
TONIGHT. THUS ADDITIONAL FORCING TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A BIT LIMITED
AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS AND WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FACTOR INTO LOW
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN TAF SITES
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH 03Z. HANDLED IT WITH A VCSH.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES LOW AND ONLY KSLK GOT
A VCSH WITH THE REST REMAINING DRY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH WEAK
FRONT TO NORTH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 633 PM EST SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED A BIT THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA LOOKS TO BE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA AS IT MOVES EAST
TONIGHT. THUS ADDITIONAL FORCING TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A BIT LIMITED
AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS AND WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FACTOR INTO LOW
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN TAF SITES
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH 03Z. HANDLED IT WITH A VCSH.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES LOW AND ONLY KSLK GOT
A VCSH WITH THE REST REMAINING DRY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH WEAK
FRONT TO NORTH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH WEAK 5H VORT AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN NY INTO VT BTWN 00-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE 925MB TO 850MB FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS...HELPING TO ADVECT SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE
INTO THE DACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN GREENS NEAR JAY PEAK. BOTTOM
LINE EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS
AND ACCUMULATIONS A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO BY MORNING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT LATEST
VIS SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH LOWER SFC DWPTS OVER SOUTHERN VT NEAR
VSF. WILL MENTION VALUES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COOLER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMP
00004000
ACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN TAF SITES
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH 03Z. HANDLED IT WITH A VCSH.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES LOW AND ONLY KSLK GOT
A VCSH WITH THE REST REMAINING DRY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH WEAK
FRONT TO NORTH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH WEAK 5H VORT AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN NY INTO VT BTWN 00-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE 925MB TO 850MB FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS...HELPING TO ADVECT SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE
INTO THE DACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN GREENS NEAR JAY PEAK. BOTTOM
LINE EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS
AND ACCUMULATIONS A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO BY MORNING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT LATEST
VIS SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH LOWER SFC DWPTS OVER SOUTHERN VT NEAR
VSF. WILL MENTION VALUES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COOLER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN TAF SITES
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH 03Z. HANDLED IT WITH A VCSH.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES LOW AND ONLY KSLK GOT
A VCSH WITH THE REST REMAINING DRY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH WEAK
FRONT TO NORTH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH WEAK 5H VORT AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN NY INTO VT BTWN 00-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE 925MB TO 850MB FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS...HELPING TO ADVECT SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE
INTO THE DACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN GREENS NEAR JAY PEAK. BOTTOM
LINE EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS
AND ACCUMULATIONS A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO BY MORNING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT LATEST
VIS SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH LOWER SFC DWPTS OVER SOUTHERN VT NEAR
VSF. WILL MENTION VALUES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COOLER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN TAF SITES
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH 03Z. HANDLED IT WITH A VCSH.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES LOW AND ONLY KSLK GOT
A VCSH WITH THE REST REMAINING DRY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH WEAK
FRONT TO NORTH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 062123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SN
00004000
SH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMULATOINS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N
& W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY:LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062010
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH WEAK 5H VORT AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN NY INTO VT BTWN 00-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE 925MB TO 850MB FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS...HELPING TO ADVECT SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE
INTO THE DACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN GREENS NEAR JAY PEAK. BOTTOM
LINE EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS
AND ACCUMULATIONS A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO BY MORNING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT LATEST
VIS SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH LOWER SFC DWPTS OVER SOUTHERN VT NEAR
VSF. WILL MENTION VALUES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COOLER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT MSS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...AND AT SLK THROUGH 00Z. MAINLY
VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT BTV/PBG
WHERE BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK/MSS
HOLDING ON TO MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES 10-18Z SUNDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FROM MPV SOUTH.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20 KTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 062006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
306 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMULATOINS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N
& W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNY
00004000
DER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
305 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT
A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST SATURDAY...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE NOTED SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ON
THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED BTV 4KM AFTER 18Z. SO A COUPLE OF BURST ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY DRY...SO BEST POTENTIAL
OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S VALLEYS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VT...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE OBS SHOW MSS DOWN TO 1/2SM IN MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGHGATE
BRIEFLY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS BETTER
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 5H SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL DRYING AND LESS DYNAMICS ALOFT.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF AND SOME SURFACE
WARMING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HELP TO PRODUCE STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CHC/LIKELY WITH ANY ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY
CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT
CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE
-3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR
MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME
OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK
AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD
STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING
FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES
BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT MSS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...AND AT SLK THROUGH 00Z. MAINLY
VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT BTV/PBG
WHERE BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK/MSS
HOLDING ON TO MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES 10-18Z SUNDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FROM MPV SOUTH.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20 KTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
305 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT
A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST SATURDAY...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE NOTED SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ON
THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED BTV 4KM AFTER 18Z. SO A COUPLE OF BURST ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY DRY...SO BEST POTENTIAL
OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S VALLEYS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VT...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE OBS SHOW MSS DOWN TO 1/2SM IN MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGHGATE
BRIEFLY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS BETTER
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 5H SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL DRYING AND LESS DYNAMICS ALOFT.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF AND SOME SURFACE
WARMING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HELP TO PRODUCE STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CHC/LIKELY WITH ANY ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY
CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT
CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE
-3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR
MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME
OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK
AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD
STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING
FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES
BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT MSS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...AND AT SLK THROUGH 00Z. MAINLY
VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT BTV/PBG
WHERE BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK/MSS
HOLDING ON TO MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES 10-18Z SUNDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FROM MPV SOUTH.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20 KTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVID
00004000
ENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PROD
00000B89
UCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS

      
      

  
    
  
  
        US Dept of Commerce
          National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
          National Weather Service
          1325 East West Highway
          Silver Spring, MD 20910
          Page Author:  NWS Internet Services Team
    Disclaimer
      Information Quality
      Credits
      Glossary
    Privacy Policy
      Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
      About Us
      Career Opportunities
  

      
    
  

00000000










US Forecasts are Public Domain and derived from the
National Weather Service - (IWIN) and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Canadian forecasts are obtained from and are copyright of Environment Canada.


Home / Live U.S. Radar & Cities By State | National / International | Streaming Radars & Webcams | Your Weather | Hurricanes | Site Map

Privacy Policy/Terms Of Use | About Us | Contact Us/Comment
Copyright © 2002-2016 WXnation.com  All rights reserved.