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0000C000000
FXUS61 KALY 272127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
527 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...LEAVING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HERKIMER...HAMILTON...WARREN...FULTON...MONTGOMERY AND SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SW VT INTO MUCH
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM WASHINGTON/SARATOGA COUNTIES SOUTH
TO THE ULSTER/DUTCHESS CO LINE. AREAS S AND E OF THIS LINE...SB
CAPES REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 1500 J/KG.
SO CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS.
FARTHER N AND W...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED EARLIER...THE AIR
MASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER ENOUGH...AND THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED.

THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING E/SE...ENTERING BENNINGTON AND
BERKSHIRE COS THROUGH 7 PM...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH NW LITCHFIELD CO AS WELL BETWEEN 6
AND 7 PM.

AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT ANY RENEWED ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL WEST OF
THE REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM THE RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
TOMORROW...AND STILL WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL BE DRIER THAN TODAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
AREAS MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. IN THESE EASTERN AREAS...HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE CELL IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER HIGH...SO STILL EXPECT
WARM TEMPS ON FRI...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU
NT/FRI AM WILL BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S. FRI NT/SAT
AM WILL BE MILDER...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT-SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAT SAT...AND PASS THROUGH SAT NT/EARLY SUN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AS SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS POSSIBLY GETS
CAUGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SO...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD S AND E FOR MOST AREAS N AND W
OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT BY SUNSET. DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY...SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO SAT NT AND
SUN AM...ESP FOR AREAS S AND E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. TEMPS ON SAT
SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST AREAS. COOLER ON SUN...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SUN NT-WED...SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR SUN NT-
MON...DEPENDING IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND LESS
HUMID OTHER AREAS...BEFORE HUMIDITY INCREASES AGAIN BY WED. TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT THROUGH FRI NT.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROUGHT LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...MOST AREAS GENERALLY RECEIVED ONE TENTH...TO ONE THIRD
OF AN INCH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT THROUGH FRI NT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LATE SAT
INTO SAT NT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 272127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
527 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...LEAVING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HERKIMER...HAMILTON...WARREN...FULTON...MONTGOMERY AND SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SW VT INTO MUCH
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM WASHINGTON/SARATOGA COUNTIES SOUTH
TO THE ULSTER/DUTCHESS CO LINE. AREAS S AND E OF THIS LINE...SB
CAPES REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 1500 J/KG.
SO CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS.
FARTHER N AND W...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED EARLIER...THE AIR
MASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER ENOUGH...AND THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED.

THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING E/SE...ENTERING BENNINGTON AND
BERKSHIRE COS THROUGH 7 PM...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH NW LITCHFIELD CO AS WELL BETWEEN 6
AND 7 PM.

AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT ANY RENEWED ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL WEST OF
THE REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM THE RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
TOMORROW...AND STILL WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL BE DRIER THAN TODAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
AREAS MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. IN THESE EASTERN AREAS...HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE CELL IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 35 MPH. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER HIGH...SO STILL EXPECT
WARM TEMPS ON FRI...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU
NT/FRI AM WILL BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S. FRI NT/SAT
AM WILL BE MILDER...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT-SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAT SAT...AND PASS THROUGH SAT NT/EARLY SUN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AS SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS POSSIBLY GETS
CAUGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SO...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD S AND E FOR MOST AREAS N AND W
OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT BY SUNSET. DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY...SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO SAT NT AND
SUN AM...ESP FOR AREAS S AND E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. TEMPS ON SAT
SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST AREAS. COOLER ON SUN...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SUN NT-WED...SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR SUN NT-
MON...DEPENDING IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND LESS
HUMID OTHER AREAS...BEFORE HUMIDITY INCREASES AGAIN BY WED. TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT THROUGH FRI NT.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROUGHT LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...MOST AREAS GENERALLY RECEIVED ONE TENTH...TO ONE THIRD
OF AN INCH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT THROUGH FRI NT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LATE SAT
INTO SAT NT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF VERMONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR VERMONT TILL 7 PM. WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
NORTHERN NY AS STORMS HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST. STORMS FORMED OVER
ADIRONDACKS DURING MIDDAY AND STRENGTHENED WHILE DEVELOPING INTO A
LINE WHILE MOVING EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
VERMONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS
IN AREAS YET TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FURTHER WEST...PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF AND EXPECT
THIS DRYING TREND TO PROGRESS EAST THIS EVENING AS LINE OF STORMS
DEPARTS. THE DRYING WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS CHANCE
OF SHOWERS RETURNS TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN NEW
YORK...WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FROM ABOUT
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED.
FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z BUT ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. IT WILL
BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG...WHILE ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MAYBE EVEN SEVERE
STORMS DEPENDING ON TIME OF FROPA. STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...
BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY PERIOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE
70S. THE NIGHTS WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MINS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

KMSS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

KSLK...VFR WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING UP
FROM THE SW THROUGH 20Z, THEN EXPECT ONLY VCSH.

KPBG/KBTV...THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z, WITH VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE, DRY VFR CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN DURING THE EVENING/03Z THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHEN MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

KMPV/KRUT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING, SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 19Z-20Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH 00Z AND VCSH
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT STARTING
AROUND 08Z BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND FOG DISSIPATES AROUND 10/11Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES
OF MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH
MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 323 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LAKE THUNDERSTORM AND WIND ADVISORIES
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN ARE NOW IN EFFECT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS. WAVE HIEGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FOR THE AFTERNOON AND AS HIGH AS
2-4 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...VERASAMY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF VERMONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR VERMONT TILL 7 PM. WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
NORTHERN NY AS STORMS HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST. STORMS FORMED OVER
ADIRONDACKS DURING MIDDAY AND STRENGTHENED WHILE DEVELOPING INTO A
LINE WHILE MOVING EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
VERMONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS
IN AREAS YET TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FURTHER WEST...PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF AND EXPECT
THIS DRYING TREND TO PROGRESS EAST THIS EVENING AS LINE OF STORMS
DEPARTS. THE DRYING WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS CHANCE
OF SHOWERS RETURNS TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN NEW
YORK...WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FROM ABOUT
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED.
FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z BUT ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. IT WILL
BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG...WHILE ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MAYBE EVEN SEVERE
STORMS DEPENDING ON TIME OF FROPA. STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...
BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY PERIOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE
70S. THE NIGHTS WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MINS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

KMSS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

KSLK...VFR WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING UP
FROM THE SW THROUGH 20Z, THEN EXPECT ONLY VCSH.

KPBG/KBTV...THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z, WITH VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE, DRY VFR CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN DURING THE EVENING/03Z THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHEN MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

KMPV/KRUT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING, SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 19Z-20Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH 00Z AND VCSH
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT STARTING
AROUND 08Z BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND FOG DISSIPATES AROUND 10/11Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES
OF MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH
MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 323 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LAKE THUNDERSTORM AND WIND ADVISORIES
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN ARE NOW IN EFFECT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS. WAVE HIEGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FOR THE AFTERNOON AND AS HIGH AS
2-4 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...VERASAMY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF VERMONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR VERMONT TILL 7 PM. WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
NORTHERN NY AS STORMS HAVE MOVED FURTHER EAST. STORMS FORMED OVER
ADIRONDACKS DURING MIDDAY AND STRENGTHENED WHILE DEVELOPING INTO A
LINE WHILE MOVING EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
VERMONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS
IN AREAS YET TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FURTHER WEST...PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF AND EXPECT
THIS DRYING TREND TO PROGRESS EAST THIS EVENING AS LINE OF STORMS
DEPARTS. THE DRYING WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS CHANCE
OF SHOWERS RETURNS TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN NEW
YORK...WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...TO AROUND 70 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FROM ABOUT
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED.
FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z BUT ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. IT WILL
BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG...WHILE ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MAYBE EVEN SEVERE
STORMS DEPENDING ON TIME OF FROPA. STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...
BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY PERIOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE
70S. THE NIGHTS WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MINS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

KMSS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

KSLK...VFR WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING UP
FROM THE SW THROUGH 20Z, THEN EXPECT ONLY VCSH.

KPBG/KBTV...THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z, WITH VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE, DRY VFR CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN DURING THE EVENING/03Z THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHEN MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

KMPV/KRUT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING, SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 19Z-20Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH 00Z AND VCSH
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT STARTING
AROUND 08Z BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND FOG DISSIPATES AROUND 10/11Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES
OF MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH
MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 323 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LAKE THUNDERSTORM AND WIND ADVISORIES
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN ARE NOW IN EFFECT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS. WAVE HIEGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FOR THE AFTERNOON AND AS HIGH AS
2-4 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...VERASAMY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY NY. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF VERMONT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN AS
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL SHAPING UP TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE NECESSARY
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

KMSS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

KSLK...VFR WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING UP
FROM THE SW THROUGH 20Z, THEN EXPECT ONLY VCSH.

KPBG/KBTV...THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z, WITH VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE, DRY VFR CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN DURING THE EVENING/03Z THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHEN MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

KMPV/KRUT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING, SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 19Z-20Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH 00Z AND VCSH
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT STARTING
AROUND 08Z BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND FOG DISSIPATES AROUND 10/11Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES
OF MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH
MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 323 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LAKE THUNDERSTORM AND WIND ADVISORIES
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN ARE NOW IN EFFECT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS. WAVE HIEGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FOR THE AFTERNOON AND AS HIGH AS
2-4 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...VERASAMY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY NY. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF VERMONT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN AS
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL SHAPING UP TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE NECESSARY
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COL
00004000
D FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

KMSS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

KSLK...VFR WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING UP
FROM THE SW THROUGH 20Z, THEN EXPECT ONLY VCSH.

KPBG/KBTV...THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z, WITH VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE, DRY VFR CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN DURING THE EVENING/03Z THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHEN MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

KMPV/KRUT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING, SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 19Z-20Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH 00Z AND VCSH
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT STARTING
AROUND 08Z BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND FOG DISSIPATES AROUND 10/11Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES
OF MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH
MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 323 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LAKE THUNDERSTORM AND WIND ADVISORIES
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN ARE NOW IN EFFECT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS. WAVE HIEGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FOR THE AFTERNOON AND AS HIGH AS
2-4 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...VERASAMY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY NY. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF VERMONT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN AS
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL SHAPING UP TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE NECESSARY
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION8 /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

KMSS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

KSLK...VFR WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING UP
FROM THE SW THROUGH 20Z, THEN EXPECT ONLY VCSH.

KPBG/KBTV...THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z, WITH VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE, DRY VFR CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN DURING THE EVENING/03Z THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHEN MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

KMPV/KRUT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING, SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 19Z-20Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH 00Z AND VCSH
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT STARTING
AROUND 08Z BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND FOG DISSIPATES AROUND 10/11Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES
OF MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH
MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY NY. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF VERMONT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN AS
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL SHAPING UP TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE NECESSARY
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
P
00004000
RES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION8 /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

KMSS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

KSLK...VFR WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING UP
FROM THE SW THROUGH 20Z, THEN EXPECT ONLY VCSH.

KPBG/KBTV...THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z, WITH VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE, DRY VFR CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN DURING THE EVENING/03Z THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHEN MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

KMPV/KRUT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING, SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 19Z-20Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH 00Z AND VCSH
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT STARTING
AROUND 08Z BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND FOG DISSIPATES AROUND 10/11Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES
OF MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH
MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 271743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING IS NOW AVAILABLE.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING IS NOW AVAILABLE.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHE
0000C000
AR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING IS NOW AVAILABLE.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING IS NOW AVAILABLE.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

A 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

A 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A
00004000
LTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

A 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
00004000
 WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

A 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE 
00004000
RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

A 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

A 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS 
00004000
THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

A 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT 
00004000
AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NYS AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

A 17Z/WED KALY SOUNDING WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 24Z/01Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
EXACT TIMING...BUT SELECTED AN HOUR OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
AT EACH TAF SITE...WHICH CAN BE AMENDED OR SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN...
THIS FAR OUT CAN AMEND TO INCLUDE IFR DEPENDING ON HOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE. AFTER ABOUT 01Z/02Z...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW LINGER SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT KPSF AND KGFL
AFTER 10Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 10Z...BUT AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS AT KPSF AND
KGFL. BY 14Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AT 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL TREND TO WEST
BY 16Z-18Z AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OR GREATER BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...
AND WILL BE REFLECTED ONCE THE TAF VALID TIME EXTENDS BEYOND 18Z
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NYS
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NE
00004000
W ENGLAND...

AS OF 125 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AFTER 14Z. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH)
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 21Z TO 01Z AT KPSF.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NYS
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS OF 125 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC D
00004000
EWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AFTER 14Z. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH)
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 21Z TO 01Z AT KPSF.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NYS
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS OF 125 PM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NOW ALSO ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SB CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 35-40 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 25-30 KT FARTHER S AND E. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN THE
5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT IS INCREASING FROM W TO
E AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND ALSO AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NYS.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AREAS CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E...REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4-7 PM. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE
THESE APPROXIMATE TIMES.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WHICH MAY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

ALSO...WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WELCOME...SHOULD ANY CELLS TRAIN ALONG LINES...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 85-90 IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER/MID 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE ANY CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AFTER 14Z. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH)
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 21Z TO 01Z AT KPSF.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VA
00001A77
LUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY NY. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF VERMONT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN AS
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL SHAPING UP TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE NECESSARY
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
00004000
MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY NY. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF VERMONT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN AS
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL SHAPING UP TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE NECESSARY
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY NY. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF VERMONT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN AS
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL SHAPING UP TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE NECESSARY
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTO
00004000
RMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY NY. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF VERMONT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN AS
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL SHAPING UP TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE NECESSARY
ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS/SKY AND TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS
ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY OVER ADIRONDACKS...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS/SKY AND TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS
ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY OVER ADIRONDACKS...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER V
00004000
ALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS/SKY AND TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS
ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY OVER ADIRONDACKS...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS/SKY AND TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS
ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY OVER ADIRONDACKS...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE O
00004000
F HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS/SKY AND TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS
ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY OVER ADIRONDACKS...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS/SKY AND TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS
ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY OVER ADIRONDACKS...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONAB
00004000
LE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 271412
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS NOT TERRIBLY UNSTABLE...AND IN FACT SHOW
SOMEWHAT OF A MIDLEVEL CAP/WARM LAYER. INCREASING COVERAGE OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD BE HINTING AT A
LITTLE LESS SUN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..BUT IN THIS WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS...EVEN PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S...SOME UPPER 80S. FORECASTED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SUPPORT CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OR BROKEN LINE
OF THUDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS TYPE OF CONVECTIVE MODE.

SOME SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY PULSE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
LINE/BROKEN LINE AND ELEVATED CORES DROP DOWN AS ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFTS...AGAIN...RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DYNAMICS LAG
FAR TO THE WEST...AND CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SOME MODERATE DEEP SHEAR OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH AGAIN SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
MARGINAL SEVERE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. ALSO A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

MORE BIG PICTURE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON
THU...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS
ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AFTER 14Z. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH)
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 21Z TO 01Z AT KPSF.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC 
00004000
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271412
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS NOT TERRIBLY UNSTABLE...AND IN FACT SHOW
SOMEWHAT OF A MIDLEVEL CAP/WARM LAYER. INCREASING COVERAGE OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD BE HINTING AT A
LITTLE LESS SUN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..BUT IN THIS WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS...EVEN PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S...SOME UPPER 80S. FORECASTED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SUPPORT CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OR BROKEN LINE
OF THUDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS TYPE OF CONVECTIVE MODE.

SOME SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY PULSE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
LINE/BROKEN LINE AND ELEVATED CORES DROP DOWN AS ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFTS...AGAIN...RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DYNAMICS LAG
FAR TO THE WEST...AND CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SOME MODERATE DEEP SHEAR OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH AGAIN SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
MARGINAL SEVERE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. ALSO A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

MORE BIG PICTURE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON
THU...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS
ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AFTER 14Z. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH)
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 21Z TO 01Z AT KPSF.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
758 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 758 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS
TO COVER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOPP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RIS
00004000
K FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
758 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 758 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS
TO COVER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOPP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
758 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 758 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS
TO COVER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOPP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CRE
00004000
ATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
758 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 758 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS
TO COVER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOPP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 271134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 650 AM EDT...SOME ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE SRN DACKS. SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
POPS AND WEATHER THIS MORNING THERE. ALSO REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CT. IT CONTINUES TO BE
VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SEVERE WX THREAT CONTINUES
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG
THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS
SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WIL
00004000
L ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AFTER 14Z. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH)
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 21Z TO 01Z AT KPSF.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 650 AM EDT...SOME ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE SRN DACKS. SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
POPS AND WEATHER THIS MORNING THERE. ALSO REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CT. IT CONTINUES TO BE
VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SEVERE WX THREAT CONTINUES
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG
THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS
SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AFTER 14Z. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER
18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH)
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 21Z TO 01Z AT KPSF.

LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCATION RECEIVES...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z.

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 14 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO OVER 20 KT
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL 
00004000
CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 650 AM EDT...SOME ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE SRN DACKS. SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
POPS AND WEATHER THIS MORNING THERE. ALSO REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CT. IT CONTINUES TO BE
VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SEVERE WX THREAT CONTINUES
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG
THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS
SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 271052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 650 AM EDT...SOME ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND THE SRN DACKS. SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
POPS AND WEATHER THIS MORNING THERE. ALSO REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CT. IT CONTINUES 
00004000
TO BE
VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SEVERE WX THREAT CONTINUES
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG
THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS
SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271052
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY HAIL REACHING SEVERE
CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL
FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF

00004000
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270844
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
444 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY HAIL REACHING SEVERE
CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL
FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MSS. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND
CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 04Z AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF MPV/RUT/BTV WITH A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 270842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN
00004000
 PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NE
00004000
W ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEE
00004000
P
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
R
00004000
IDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESD
00000AC9
AY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR R
00004000
AIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY HAIL REACHING SEVERE
CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL
FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MSS. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND
CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 04Z AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF MPV/RUT/BTV WITH A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 270824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUI
00004000
LD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMIC
00004000
S AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES IN 
00004000
SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME THAT IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CANADA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MSS. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND
CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 04Z AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF MPV/RUT/BTV WITH A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME THAT IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CANADA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MSS. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND
CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 04Z AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF MPV/RUT/BTV WITH A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 270521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUN
00004000
DARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS
00004000
 AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME THAT IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CANADA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LE
00004000
VEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MSS. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND
CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 04Z AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF MPV/RUT/BTV WITH A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME THAT IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CANADA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MSS. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND
CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 04Z AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF MPV/RUT/BTV WITH A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270502
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME THAT IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CANADA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270502
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME THAT IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CANADA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TR
00004000
OUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270502
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME THAT IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CANADA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270502
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME THAT IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CANADA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270502
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME THAT IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CANADA.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL

00004000
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS COULD FORM OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS COULD FORM OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS COULD FORM OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF 
00004000
CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS COULD FORM OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND HIGH RESOLUTION
DATA SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS COULD FORM OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN
REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KALY 270132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS FA. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL A PT-MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K 
00004000
J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 270132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS FA. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL A PT-MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262314
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND

00004000
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION MOVE OVERHEAD. MAY
ALSO SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FROM ANY CONVECTIVE REMNANTS.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262314
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION MOVE OVERHEAD. MAY
ALSO SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FROM ANY CONVECTIVE REMNANTS.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262314
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION MOVE OVERHEAD. MAY
ALSO SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FROM ANY CONVECTIVE REMNANTS.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262314
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AN
00002BDB
D
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION MOVE OVERHEAD. MAY
ALSO SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FROM ANY CONVECTIVE REMNANTS.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERI
00004000
OD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. 
00004000
THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262314
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION MOVE OVERHEAD. MAY
ALSO SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FROM ANY CONVECTIVE REMNANTS.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPE
00004000
CT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 262314
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION MOVE OVERHEAD. MAY
ALSO SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FROM ANY CONVECTIVE REMNANTS.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KALY 262231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
     SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERS
00004000
TORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 262231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
     SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...
00004000
BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
00004000

SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 TH
00004000
E EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH OF TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE
FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED. INCREASING
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND AROUND 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM 050-080 DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BRINGING A DECK OF VFR LOW CLOUDS. THERES A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z,
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST/NW. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN
10Z-16Z, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 16Z.

SW TO S WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT KPBG/KMSS AND KSLK UP TO
28KTS. KBTV MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT GUSTS SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS,
PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7-15KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY.

00Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

18Z ONWARD...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH OF TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE
FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED. INCREASING
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND AROUND 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM 050-080 DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BRINGING A DECK OF VFR LOW CLOUDS. THERES A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z,
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST/NW. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN
10Z-16Z, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 16Z.

SW TO S WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT KPBG/KMSS AND KSLK UP TO
28KTS. KBTV MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT GUSTS SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS,
PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7-15KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY.

00Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

18Z ONWARD...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH OF TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE
FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED. INCREASING
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND AROUND 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FR
00004000
IDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM 050-080 DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BRINGING A DECK OF VFR LOW CLOUDS. THERES A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z,
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST/NW. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN
10Z-16Z, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 16Z.

SW TO S WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT KPBG/KMSS AND KSLK UP TO
28KTS. KBTV MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT GUSTS SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS,
PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7-15KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY.

00Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

18Z ONWARD...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION INTO CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1222 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH LATEST
UPDATE. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND
22C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING FORECASTED VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM 050-080 DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BRINGING A DECK OF VFR LOW CLOUDS. THERES A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z,
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST/NW. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN
10Z-16Z, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 16Z.

SW TO S WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT KPBG/KMSS AND KSLK UP TO
28KTS. KBTV MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT GUSTS SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS,
PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7-15KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY.

00Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

18Z ONWARD...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION INTO CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1222 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH LATEST
UPDATE. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND
22C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING FORECASTED VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM 050-080 DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BRINGING A DECK OF VFR LOW CLOUDS. THERES A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z,
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST/NW. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN
10Z-16Z, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 16Z.

SW TO S WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT KPBG/KMSS AND KSLK UP TO
28KTS. KBTV MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT GUSTS SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS,
PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7-15KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY.

00Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

18Z ONWARD...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION INTO CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1222 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH LATEST
UPDATE. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND
22C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING FORECASTED VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER
00004000
 ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM 050-080 DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BRINGING A DECK OF VFR LOW CLOUDS. THERES A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z,
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST/NW. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN
10Z-16Z, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 16Z.

SW TO S WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT KPBG/KMSS AND KSLK UP TO
28KTS. KBTV MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT GUSTS SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS,
PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7-15KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY.

00Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

18Z ONWARD...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWE
00004000
R 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&
00000F04

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261632
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1232 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION INTO CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1222 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH LATEST
UPDATE. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND
22C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING FORECASTED VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERG
00004000
ENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN VT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED BY THIS AFTN. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 2 TO 6 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261632
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1232 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION INTO CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1222 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH LATEST
UPDATE. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND
22C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING FORECASTED VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN VT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED BY THIS AFTN. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 2 TO 6 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. SHOWERS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR EXITED THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 22C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING FORECASTED VALLEY HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL
WELL COVERED. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS
TEMPS/POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN VT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED BY THIS AFTN. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 2 TO 6 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. SHOWERS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR EXITED THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 22C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING FORECASTED VALLEY HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL
WELL COVERED. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS
TEMPS/POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WI
00001321
LL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN VT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED BY THIS AFTN. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 2 TO 6 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 261353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT...CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM W TO E
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH...AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH NOONTIME.

SO...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90...WHILE
CLOUDS PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. THEN...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ESP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND POSSIBLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION AFTER 3
00004000
 PM. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
BUF/PBZ AND ILN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...WITH RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD WE GET A PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S...THEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY GREATER AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESP GIVEN PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.25-1.50
INCHES.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT SLOW RISE DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 261353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT...CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM W TO E
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH...AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH NOONTIME.

SO...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90...WHILE
CLOUDS PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. THEN...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ESP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND POSSIBLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION AFTER 3 PM. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
BUF/PBZ AND ILN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...WITH RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD WE GET A PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S...THEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY GREATER AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESP GIVEN PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.25-1.50
INCHES.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT SLOW RISE DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR 
00004000
THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME MORNING SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 736 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
TODAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN VT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED BY THIS AFTN. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 2 TO 6 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME MORNING SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 736 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
TODAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN VT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED BY THIS AFTN. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 2 TO 6 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME MORNING SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 736 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN S
00004000
LIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
TODAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN VT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED BY THIS AFTN. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 2 TO 6 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME MORNING SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 736 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
TODAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN VT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED BY THIS AFTN. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 2 TO 6 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME MORNING SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 736 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
TODAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE L
00004000
OW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OR VIS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 09Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. WILL
CONT TO MENTION LLWS AT MSS THROUGH THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT
THREAT FOR SHEAR IS ENDING AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTS TODAY BTWN 18 AND 25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND
22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE
HEAVIER STORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY. HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME MORNING SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 736 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
TODAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OR VIS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 09Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. WILL
CONT TO MENTION LLWS AT MSS THROUGH THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT
THREAT FOR SHEAR IS ENDING AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTS TODAY BTWN 18 AND 25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND
22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE
HEAVIER STORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY. HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME MORNING SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 736 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
TODAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OR VIS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 09Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. WILL
CONT TO MENTION LLWS AT MSS THROUGH THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT
THREAT FOR SHEAR IS ENDING AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTS TODAY BTWN 18 AND 25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND
22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE
HEAVIER STORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY. HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME MORNING SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 736 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAI
00004000
N SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
TODAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR
THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON
OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER
WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL
WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5"
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT
LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OR VIS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 09Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. WILL
CONT TO MENTION LLWS AT MSS THROUGH THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT
THREAT FOR SHEAR IS ENDING AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTS TODAY BTWN 18 AND 25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND
22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE
HEAVIER STORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY. HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE
00004000
 NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STOR