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0000B2D9000
FXUS61 KALY 311650
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.

UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...REMOVED THE TEMPO FOR THUNDER OUT OF BOTH KALB
AND KPSF.

RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF THESE
AIRPORTS. THERE COULD BE SOME OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT LOOKS LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH.

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH A POSSIBLE WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MATCHED UP THE
HOURLY FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SEEMS LIKE THE HRRR
MODEL IS DOING OKAY, SO RELIED ON THAT FOR PUTTING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING DETAILS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT A DEVELOPING LINE OF T-STORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. PART OF THAT LINE IS
LOOKING "BOWISH" AND IT WILL BE REACHING ESSEX COUNTY NY SHORTLY.
HAVE ALREADY HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL OUT IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAIRLY PROLIFIC ON LIGHTNING AS WELL. NEARLY
60 CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES BETWEEN 10A-1015A JUST IN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY. PROBABLY TWICE THAT AMOUNT IN IN-CLOUD FLASHES AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME, SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT
IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH THE
HEATING WE ARE GETTING. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH CHILLY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
FAIRLY LOW (8000-9000FT) SO HAIL IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH STORMS,
AND WE`VE ALREADY SEEN THAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION INTO CONVECTIVE
LINES -- AGAIN, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT.

SHOULD BE A BIT BUSY THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO, BUT THE STORMS SHOULD
BE PRETTY MUCH OFF TO OUR EAST BY 5 OR 6PM AT THE LATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MATCHED UP THE
HOURLY FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SEEMS LIKE THE HRRR
MODEL IS DOING OKAY, SO RELIED ON THAT FOR PUTTING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING DETAILS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT A DEVELOPING LINE OF T-STORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. PART OF THAT LINE IS
LOOKING "BOWISH" AND IT WILL BE REACHING ESSEX COUNTY NY SHORTLY.
HAVE ALREADY HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL OUT IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAIRLY PROLIFIC ON LIGHTNING AS WELL. NEARLY
60 CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES BETWEEN 10A-1015A JUST IN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY. PROBABLY TWICE THAT AMOUNT IN IN-CLOUD FLASHES AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME, SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT
IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH THE
HEATING WE ARE GETTING. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH CHILLY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
FAIRLY LOW (8000-9000FT) SO HAIL IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH STORMS,
AND WE`VE ALREADY SEEN THAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION INTO CONVECTIVE
LINES -- AGAIN, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT.

SHOULD BE A BIT BUSY THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO, BUT THE STORMS SHOULD
BE PRETTY MUCH OFF TO OUR EAST BY 5 OR 6PM AT THE LATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MATCHED UP THE
HOURLY FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SEEMS LIKE THE HRRR
MODEL IS DOING OKAY, SO RELIED ON THAT FOR PUTTING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING DETAILS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT A DEVELOPING LINE OF T-STORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. PART OF THAT LINE IS
LOOKING "BOWISH" AND IT WILL BE REACHING ESSEX COUNTY NY SHORTLY.
HAVE ALREADY HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL OUT IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAIRLY PROLIFIC ON LIGHTNING AS WELL. NEARLY
60 CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES BETWEEN 10A-1015A JUST IN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY. PROBABLY TWICE THAT AMOUNT IN IN-CLOUD FLASHES AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME, SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT
IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH THE
HEATING WE ARE GETTING. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH CHILLY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
FAIRLY LOW (8000-9000FT) SO HAIL IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH STORMS,
AND WE`VE ALREADY SEEN THAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION INTO CONVECTIVE
LINES -- AGAIN, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT.

SHOULD BE A BIT BUSY THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO, BUT THE STORMS SHOULD
BE PRETTY MUCH OFF TO OUR EAST BY 5 OR 6PM AT THE LATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MATCHED UP THE
HOURLY FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SEEMS LIKE THE HRRR
MODEL IS DOING OKAY, SO RELIED ON THAT FOR PUTTING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING DETAILS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT A DEVELOPING LINE OF T-STORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. PART OF THAT LINE IS
LOOKING "BOWISH" AND IT WILL BE REACHING ESSEX COUNTY NY SHORTLY.
HAVE ALREADY HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL OUT IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAIRLY PROLIFIC ON LIGHTNING AS WELL. NEARLY
60 CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES BETWEEN 10A-1015A JUST IN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY. PROBABLY TWICE THAT AMOUNT IN IN-CLOUD FLASHES AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME, SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT
IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH THE
HEATING WE ARE GETTING. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH CHILLY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
FAIRLY LOW (8000-9000FT) SO HAIL IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH STORMS,
AND WE`VE ALREADY SEEN THAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION INTO CONVECTIVE
LINES -- AGAIN, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT.

SHOULD BE A BIT BUSY THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO, BUT THE STORMS SHOULD
BE PRETTY MUCH OFF TO OUR EAST BY 5 OR 6PM AT THE LATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 311308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.

UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...

A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.

WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.

WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 311308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.

UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GE
00004000
NERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...

A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.

WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.

WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
00004000
 A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 311137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...

A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.

WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.

WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 311137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEA
0000DFB6
RBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...

A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.

WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.

WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 311047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON....SOME STORMS COULD BE STRING TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. HAVE
ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z TO
21Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED
IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST. RADIATIONAL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 311047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON....SOME STORMS COULD BE STRING TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. HAVE
ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z TO
21Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED
IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST. RADIATIONAL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311028
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 310835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR
JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY
EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY
MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN
US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

IN ADDITON TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGHTENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z
TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG AT KPSF EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE OME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY  RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINEUD THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN ARAES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE HAS BEEN
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE STRENGTH OF
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.
GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL
GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 500
J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE HAS BEEN
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE STRENGTH OF
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.
GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL
GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 500
J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE HAS BEEN
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE STRENGTH OF
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.
GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL
GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 500
J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE HAS BEEN
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE STRENGTH OF
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.
GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL
GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 500
J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 310602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 202 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR
JAMES BAY CANADA...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THIS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT 
00001130
INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SO
00004000
AKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z
TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG AT KPSF EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 310602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 202 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR
JAMES BAY CANADA...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THIS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z
TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG AT KPSF EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK COULD GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD
SUNRISE AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE...BUT
KEPT EVERYONE ELSE DRY. REMAINED OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SI
00004000
GNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK COULD GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD
SUNRISE AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE...BUT
KEPT EVERYONE ELSE DRY. REMAINED OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310512
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK COULD GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD
SUNRISE AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE...BUT
KEPT EVERYONE ELSE DRY. REMAINED OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS VFR. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST THAT WE EXPECT FOG
AT SLK/MPV AFTER 04-12Z...AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 12Z. DURING
THURSDAY MORNING...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE MORNING THOUGH AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT
6-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310512
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK COULD GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD
SUNRISE AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE...BUT
KEPT EVERYONE ELSE DRY. REMAINED OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS VFR. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST THAT WE EXPECT FOG
AT SLK/MPV AFTER 04-12Z...AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 12Z. DURING
THURSDAY MORNING...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE MORNING THOUGH AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT
6-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM

000
FXUS61 
00004000
KBTV 310230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR CHANGES AT THE 1000 PM
HOUR...MAINLY TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER DOWNWARD ACROSS
ERN VT WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OCCURRING. WEAK SFC TROUGH AND
ASSOC SCT SHOWER/ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EDGE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE
06-09Z TIME FRAME PER LATEST WRF/HRRR RUNS. ONLY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF
EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF SHOWER/ISOLD STORM STILL POSSIBLE ERN
NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S...THOUGH WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY (A
FEW 40S NERN VT/DACKS AND LOCALLY NEAR 60 CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). ALSO
HELD ONTO PATCHY FOG ACROSS ERN VT WHERE MORE CLEARING/RADIATIVE
EFFECTS WILL OCCUR. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS VFR. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST THAT WE EXPECT FOG
AT SLK/MPV AFTER 04-12Z...AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 12Z. DURING
THURSDAY MORNING...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE MORNING THOUGH AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT
6-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 310201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF
DIMINISHING CONVECTION ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS JUST
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR KROC. WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING IS OVER...ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS THEY
APPROACH EASTERN NY. THIS TOO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE
REFLECTIVITY MODELS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHC OR CHC CATEGORIES.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL NY MAY LIMIT OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N
AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL OF
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VIS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCH FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

WHILE CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF KPOU. AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 310201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF
DIMINISHING CONVECTION ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS JUST
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR KROC. WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING IS OVER...ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
CLOUDS A
00004000
ND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS THEY
APPROACH EASTERN NY. THIS TOO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE
REFLECTIVITY MODELS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHC OR CHC CATEGORIES.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL NY MAY LIMIT OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N
AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL OF
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VIS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCH FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

WHILE CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF KPOU. AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/TDS AND SKY COVER TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL WATCHING DECAYING CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH AS OF 700 PM...WITH CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGESTING THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WE LOSE INSOLATION. THUS CURRENT IDEA OF 20/30 POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH 900 PM STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER-WISE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CAP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE
BIT OF INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH MAY PROVE
TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH
THE EVENING. LATEST RAP/BTV6/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL...BUT
QUICKLY DISSIPATES ANYTHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
MAY SLIDE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
AGAIN WON`T LAST LONG. ALL IN ALL...LOOKING AT GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE
PLACID NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS VFR. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST THAT WE EXPECT FOG
AT SLK/MPV AFTER 04-12Z...AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 12Z. DURING
THURSDAY MORNING...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE MORNING THOUGH AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT
6-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 302350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS JUST AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR KBUF. WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING IS OVER...ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS THEY APPROACH EASTERN NY. THIS
TOO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE REFLECTIVITY MODELS. SO
WE WILL INCREASE POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHC OR CHC CATEGORIES.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL NY MAY LIMIT OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N
AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
00004000

MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL OF
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VIS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCH FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

WHILE CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF KPOU. AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302320
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/TDS AND SKY COVER TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL WATCHING DECAYING CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH AS OF 700 PM...WITH CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGESTING THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WE LOSE INSOLATION. THUS CURRENT IDEA OF 20/30 POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH 900 PM STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER-WISE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CAP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE
BIT OF INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH MAY PROVE
TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH
THE EVENING. LATEST RAP/BTV6/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL...BUT
QUICKLY DISSIPATES ANYTHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
MAY SLIDE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
AGAIN WON`T LAST LONG. ALL IN ALL...LOOKING AT GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE
PLACID NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302320
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/TDS AND SKY COVER TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL WATCHING DECAYING CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH AS OF 700 PM...WITH CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGESTING THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WE LOSE INSOLATION. THUS CURRENT IDEA OF 20/30 POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH 900 PM STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER-WISE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CAP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE
BIT OF INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH MAY PROVE
TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH
THE EVENING. LATEST RAP/BTV6/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL...BUT
QUICKLY DISSIPATES ANYTHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...ON
00004000
GOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
MAY SLIDE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
AGAIN WON`T LAST LONG. ALL IN ALL...LOOKING AT GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE
PLACID NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 302047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS...AND ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. TEMPS HAVE REACHED
THE MID/UPPER 70S WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREDOMINATED...WITH MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.

THUS FAR...ALMOST NO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH FAR WESTERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SETTING SUN...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AFTER SUNSET. ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 302047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID
00004000
 CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS...AND ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. TEMPS HAVE REACHED
THE MID/UPPER 70S WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREDOMINATED...WITH MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.

THUS FAR...ALMOST NO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH FAR WESTERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SETTING SUN...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AFTER SUNSET. ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 302047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS...AND ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. TEMPS HAVE REACHED
THE MID/UPPER 70S WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREDOMINATED...WITH MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.

THUS FAR...ALMOST NO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH FAR WESTERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SETTING SUN...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AFTER SUNSET. ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE M
00004000
AIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 302047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS...AND ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. TEMPS HAVE REACHED
THE MID/UPPER 70S WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PREDOMINATED...WITH MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.

THUS FAR...ALMOST NO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS AND PA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH FAR WESTERN AREAS AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SETTING SUN...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TOWARD AND
AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AFTER SUNSET. ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA
00004000
.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER-WISE OUT THERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST
RAP/BTV6/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATES
ANYTHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK MAY
SLIDE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT AGAIN
WON`T LAST LONG. ALL IN ALL...LOOKING AT GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE
PLACID NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER-WISE OUT THERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST
RAP/BTV6/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATES
ANYTHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK MAY
SLIDE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT AGAIN
WON`T LAST LONG. ALL IN ALL...LOOKING AT GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE
PLACID NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER-WISE OUT THERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST
RAP/BTV6/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATES
ANYTHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK MAY
SLIDE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT AGAIN
WON`T LAST LONG. ALL IN ALL...LOOKING AT GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE
PLACID NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HA
00004000
LF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER-WISE OUT THERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST
RAP/BTV6/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATES
ANYTHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK MAY
SLIDE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT AGAIN
WON`T LAST LONG. ALL IN ALL...LOOKING AT GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE
PLACID NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT M
0000391F
PV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG

00004000
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT 
000014B4
LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 301728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...CU/STRATO-CU ARE FORMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OR
SLIGHTLY SURPASSED. NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DYNAMICS INCREASE
A BIT FURTHER AROUND SUNSET...SO AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT INCREASE
UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.

FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEA
00004000
TING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 301728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...CU/STRATO-CU ARE FORMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OR
SLIGHTLY SURPASSED. NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DYNAMICS INCREASE
A BIT FURTHER AROUND SUNSET...SO AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT INCREASE
UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.

FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 301728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...CU/STRATO-CU ARE FORMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OR
SLIGHTLY SURPASSED. NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DYNAMICS INCREASE
A BIT FURTHER AROUND SUNSET...SO AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT INCREASE
UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.

FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO A
00004000
LL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 301728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...CU/STRATO-CU ARE FORMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OR
SLIGHTLY SURPASSED. NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DYNAMICS INCREASE
A BIT FURTHER AROUND SUNSET...SO AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT INCREASE
UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.

FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION.

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF
THEM.

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT
KPSF).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301644
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV TILL ABOUT
13Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...THEN SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION
VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 06Z WITH
VFR AT REST OF SITES. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS O
00008000
R LESS
TODAY...THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV TILL ABOUT
13Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...THEN SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION
VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 06Z WITH
VFR AT REST OF SITES. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY...THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV TILL ABOUT
13Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...THEN SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION
VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 06Z WITH
VFR AT REST OF SITES. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY...THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 301410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER.
A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED MOISTURE...TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
CAP.

THE CAP LOOKS TO WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE NOTED
OVER MI WILL COOL THE MID LEVEL COLUMN. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK
SOME WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THIS
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN...THE BEST FORCING
GOES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES.

WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SOME (ALREADY WERE HERE AT OUR
OFFICE). THEREFORE...BASED ON THE LATEST RAOB WE WILL LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONE.

SO...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOK FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75-80
IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 301410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER.
A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED MOISTURE...TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
CAP.

THE CAP LOOKS TO WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE NOTED
OVER MI WILL COOL THE MID LEVEL COLUMN. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK
SOME WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THIS
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN...THE BEST FORCING
GOES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES.

WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SOME (ALREADY WERE HERE AT OUR
OFFICE). THEREFORE...BASED ON THE LATEST RAOB WE WILL LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONE.

SO...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOK FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75-80
IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 301410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER.
A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED MOISTURE...TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
CAP.

THE CAP LOOKS TO WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE NOTED
OVER MI WILL COOL THE MID LEVEL COLUMN. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK
SOME WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THIS
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN...THE BEST FORCING
GOES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES.

WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SOME (ALREADY WERE HERE AT OUR
OFFICE). THEREFORE...BASED ON THE LATEST RAOB WE WILL LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONE.

SO...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOK FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75-80
IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 301410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER.

00008000
A LOOK AT THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED MOISTURE...TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
CAP.

THE CAP LOOKS TO WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE NOTED
OVER MI WILL COOL THE MID LEVEL COLUMN. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK
SOME WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THIS
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN...THE BEST FORCING
GOES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES.

WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SOME (ALREADY WERE HERE AT OUR
OFFICE). THEREFORE...BASED ON THE LATEST RAOB WE WILL LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONE.

SO...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOK FOR AN INITIAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75-80
IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

JUST SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING. VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION BUT STILL EXPECTING
PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV TILL ABOUT
13Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...THEN SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION
VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 06Z WITH
VFR AT REST OF SITES. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY...THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DE
00008000
GREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

JUST SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING. VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION BUT STILL EXPECTING
PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

JUST SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING. VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION BUT STILL EXPECTING
PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 301045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 301045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DU
00008000
E TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300842
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 442 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300842
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 442 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFT
00004000
ERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300842
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 442 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300842
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 442 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300759
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 149 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE
SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS PRODUCING PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE AS WELL.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY 10-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH 
00004000
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300759
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 149 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE
SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS PRODUCING PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE AS WELL.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY 10-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 300603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 300603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOU
00008000
RS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 300552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 300552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300549
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 149 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE
SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS PRODUCING PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE AS WELL.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY 10-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300549
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 149 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE
SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS PRODUCING PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE AS WELL.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY 10-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. LOOKING UPSTREAM
     MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN
ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48
HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z. BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK
REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 10-12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 AM EDT WED JUL
00005D58
 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. LOOKING UPSTREAM
     MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN
ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48
HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z. BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK
REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 10-12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 300248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS NOW OCCURRING PER THE REGIONAL
METARS AND THE LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO WITH THIS
UPDATE DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
/PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. SOME
BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND
MOIST GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 300248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS NOW OCCURRING PER THE REGIONAL
METARS AND THE LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO WITH THIS
UPDATE DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
/PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. SOME
BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND
MOIST GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST
SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. LOOKING UPSTREAM
...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN
ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48
HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z. BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK
REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. ADDED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 10-12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST. CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT LARGER CLOUD SHIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WHICH S
00004000
HOULD THEN BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK AND KMPV THROUGH 12Z.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KBTV AND KRUT DURING THIS
TIME. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST. CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT LARGER CLOUD SHIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WHICH SHOULD THEN BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK AND KMPV THROUGH 12Z.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KBTV AND KRUT DURING THIS
TIME. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE T
00008000
HRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 292340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA
SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z.
BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 292338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION PER THE REGIONAL METARS AND THE LAST VISIBLE GOES IMAGERY OF
DAYLIGHT.  SO WITH THIS UPDATE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION /PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW.  SOME BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND MOIST
GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 292338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION PER THE REGIONAL METARS AND THE LAST VISIBLE GOES IMAGERY OF
DAYLIGHT.  SO WITH THIS UPDATE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION /PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW.  SOME BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND MOIST
GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDA
00004000
Y LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER A DRY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
JAMES BAY REGION. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES THOUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT...AND
LOW/MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER A DRY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
JAMES BAY REGION. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES THOUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT...AND
LOW/MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH C
00003E20
OLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

      
      

  
    
  
  
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