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0000C000000
FXUS61 KALY 070828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER AROUND
FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED OVER
WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH SOME LOWER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...AND
BERKSHIRES.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND
THESE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOON. WITH THE
DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AT SOME POINT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE NEARBY DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW THEM TO HAVE A
GREATER COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 3KM
HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...PWAT VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL.
BECAUSE OF THIS...CAN EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE
OF RATHER HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SVR STORMS AREN/T A CONCERN TODAY
THANKS TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS.

SKIES TODAY LOOK TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GET VALLEY AREAS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH 70S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS STORM/S SFC COLD FRONT...IT
WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...AND
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LOOKS TO
PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR VERY EARLY
AFTN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED SO NOT
EVERYWHERE WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS/PWATS REMAINING
HIGH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERN AREAS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE
CAPITAL REGION SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTN HOURS.

MOST AREAS LOOK DRY FOR WED NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN AND LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A DEEPER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD
WITH LINGER AFFECTS SOUTH OF I90 EARLY ON WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A NARROW RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
SUMMERLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. DETAILS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WERE SLOWLY FAVORING A LITTLE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPROACH REMAINS THE SAME FOR NOW AS
TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND REFINE FURTHER AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
KPOU-KPSF. THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB
SOON THEN INTO KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH EITHER A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR.  HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.

AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND DROP
TO 40-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES. IF A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED
AREA...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OCCURRING TODAY.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 070828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER AROUND
FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED OVER
WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH SOME LOWER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...AND
BERKSHIRES.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND
THESE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOON. WITH THE
DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AT SOME POINT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE NEARBY DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW THEM TO HAVE A
GREATER COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 3KM
HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...PWAT VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL.
BECAUSE OF THIS...CAN EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE
OF RATHER HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SVR STORMS AREN/T A CONCERN TODAY
THANKS TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS.

SKIES TODAY LOOK TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GET VALLEY AREAS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH 70S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS STORM/S SFC COLD FRONT...IT
WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...AND
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LOOKS TO
PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR VERY EARLY
AFTN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED SO NOT
EVERYWHERE WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS/PWATS REMAINING
HIGH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERN AREAS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE
CAPITAL REGION SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTN HOURS.

MOST AREAS LOOK DRY FOR WED NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN AND LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A DEEPER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD
WITH LINGER AFFECTS SOUTH OF I90 EARLY ON WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A NARROW RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
SUMMERLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. DETAILS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WERE SLOWLY FAVORING A LITTLE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPROACH REMAINS THE SAME FOR NOW AS
TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND REFINE FURTHER AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
KPOU-KPSF. THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB
SOON THEN INTO KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH EITHER A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR.  HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.

AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND DROP
TO 40-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES. IF A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED
AREA...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OCCURRING TODAY.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 070828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER AROUND
FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED OVER
WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH SOME LOWER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...AND
BERKSHIRES.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND
THESE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOON. WITH THE
DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AT SOME POINT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE NEARBY DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW THEM TO HAVE A
GREATER COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 3KM
HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...PWAT VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL.
BECAUSE OF THIS...CAN EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE
OF RATHER HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SVR STORMS AREN/T A CONCERN TODAY
THANKS TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS.

SKIES TODAY LOOK TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GET VALLEY AREAS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH 70S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS STORM/S SFC COLD FRONT...IT
WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...AND
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LOOKS TO
PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR VERY EARLY
AFTN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED SO NOT
EVERYWHERE WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS/PWATS REMAINING
HIGH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERN AREAS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE
CAPITAL REGION SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTN HOURS.

MOST AREAS LOOK DRY FOR WED NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN AND LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A DEEPER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD
WITH LINGER AFFECTS SOUTH OF I90 EARLY ON WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A NARROW RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
SUMMERLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. DETAILS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WERE SLOWLY FAVORING A LITTLE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPROACH REMAINS THE SAME FOR NOW AS
TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND REFINE FURTHER AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
KPOU-KPSF. THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB
SOON THEN INTO KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH EITHER A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR.  HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.

AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND DROP
TO 40-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES. IF A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED
AREA...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OCCURRING TODAY.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 070828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER AROUND
FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED OVER
WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WITH SOME LOWER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...AND
BERKSHIRES.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND
THESE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOON. WITH THE
DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AT SOME POINT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE NEARBY DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW THEM TO HAVE A
GREATER COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 3KM
HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...PWAT VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL.
BECAUSE OF THIS...CAN EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE
OF RATHER HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SVR STORMS AREN/T A CONCERN TODAY
THANKS TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS.

SKIES TODAY LOOK TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GET VALLEY AREAS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH 70S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS STORM/S SFC COLD FRONT...IT
WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...AND
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS IN MANY
PLACES AS WELL.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
TONIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LOOKS TO
PASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR VERY EARLY
AFTN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED SO NOT
EVERYWHERE WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS/PWATS REMAINING
HIGH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT...WITH NORTHWESTERN AREAS ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE
CAPITAL REGION SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 80...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTN HOURS.

MOST AREAS LOOK DRY FOR WED NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WHERE THE FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE AREA.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE MOST SUN AND LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED WITH A DEEPER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD
WITH LINGER AFFECTS SOUTH OF I90 EARLY ON WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A NARROW RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TO RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
SUMMERLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. DETAILS REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WERE SLOWLY FAVORING A LITTLE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPROACH REMAINS THE SAME FOR NOW AS
TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AND REFINE FURTHER AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
KPOU-KPSF. THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB
SOON THEN INTO KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH EITHER A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR.  HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.

AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND DROP
TO 40-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES. IF A HEAVY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER AN URBANIZED
AREA...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE SOME MINOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OCCURRING TODAY.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM/JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.8" WITH 70 TD IN THE MID ATLANTIC SPARKING SCT TSRA EARLY
THIS MORNING TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.8" WITH 70 TD IN THE MID ATLANTIC SPARKING SCT TSRA EARLY
THIS MORNING TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WI
00004000
TH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
00004000
 OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VA
00004000
LUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO
1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHA
00004000
NCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 070527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ...WHERE
SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND BERKSHIRES. THESE CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK FOR CLOUDS
TO BUILD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.

MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK OVER THE CATSKILLS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE 3KM HRRR
SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...ALTHOUGH
SOME 50S WILL OCCUR OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THE LONGEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL MUGGY....AS THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR KPOU-KPSF.
THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB SOON THEN INTO
KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH EITHER A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR.  HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.

AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND ONLY
DROP TO 50-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 070527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ...WHERE
SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND BERKSHIRES. THESE CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK FOR CLOUDS
TO BUILD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.

MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK OVER THE CATSKILLS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE 3KM HRRR
SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...ALTHOUGH
SOME 50S WILL OCCUR OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THE LONGEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL MUGGY....AS THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAV
00004000
E A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR KPOU-KPSF.
THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB SOON THEN INTO
KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH EITHER A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR.  HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.

AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND ONLY
DROP TO 50-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 070527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ...WHERE
SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND BERKSHIRES. THESE CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK FOR CLOUDS
TO BUILD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.

MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK OVER THE CATSKILLS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE 3KM HRRR
SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...ALTHOUGH
SOME 50S WILL OCCUR OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THE LONGEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL MUGGY....AS THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR KPOU-KPSF.
THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB SOON THEN INTO
KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH EITHER A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR.  HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.

AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND ONLY
DROP TO 50-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 070527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA.

IR SATELL
00004000
ITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ...WHERE
SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND BERKSHIRES. THESE CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK FOR CLOUDS
TO BUILD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.

MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK OVER THE CATSKILLS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE 3KM HRRR
SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...ALTHOUGH
SOME 50S WILL OCCUR OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THE LONGEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL MUGGY....AS THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR KPOU-KPSF.
THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB SOON THEN INTO
KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH EITHER A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR.  HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.

AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND ONLY
DROP TO 50-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 070527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ...WHERE
SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND BERKSHIRES. THESE CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK FOR CLOUDS
TO BUILD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.

MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK OVER THE CATSKILLS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE 3KM HRRR
SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...ALTHOUGH
SOME 50S WILL OCCUR OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THE LONGEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL MUGGY....AS THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.A
00004000
VIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR KPOU-KPSF.
THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB SOON THEN INTO
KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH EITHER A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR.  HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.

AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND ONLY
DROP TO 50-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 070527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN PA AND IS HEADING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ...WHERE
SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND BERKSHIRES. THESE CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK FOR CLOUDS
TO BUILD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.

MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK OVER THE CATSKILLS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE 3KM HRRR
SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...ALTHOUGH
SOME 50S WILL OCCUR OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THE LONGEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL MUGGY....AS THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ REVEALS THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR KPOU-KPSF.
THIS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KALB SOON THEN INTO
KGFL LATER OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH EITHER A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR OR JUST GO
ABOVE INTO VFR.  HOWEVER...PER THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...SEEMS THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY IMPACT THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS.

AS FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...IT DOES EXIST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF THIS FAR OUT
REMAINS LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTN...AND ONLY
DROP TO 50-60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH TODAY...AND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST
LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR
RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO A NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 070243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1043 PM EDT...LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN THE NYC/NJ AREA AND WILL WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WV SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE RIDING NORTH...AND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS S AND W.

AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD...TEMPS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME FALLING MUCH...ESP LATER TONIGHT ONCE
CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 65-70
RANGE IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTI
00004000
ON OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER TOO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 3-7 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON
TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE
SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL
BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER
STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 070243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1043 PM EDT...LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN THE NYC/NJ AREA AND WILL WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WV SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE RIDING NORTH...AND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS S AND W.

AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD...TEMPS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME FALLING MUCH...ESP LATER TONIGHT ONCE
CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 65-70
RANGE IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER TOO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 3-7 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON
TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE
SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL
BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER
STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 070243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WED
00004000
NESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1043 PM EDT...LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN THE NYC/NJ AREA AND WILL WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WV SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE RIDING NORTH...AND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS S AND W.

AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD...TEMPS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME FALLING MUCH...ESP LATER TONIGHT ONCE
CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 65-70
RANGE IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER TOO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 3-7 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON
TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE
SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL
BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER
STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 070243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1043 PM EDT...LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN THE NYC/NJ AREA AND WILL WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WV SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE RIDING NORTH...AND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS S AND W.

AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD...TEMPS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME FALLING MUCH...ESP LATER TONIGHT ONCE
CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 65-70
RANGE IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THERE IS A C
000027FF
HANCE OF THUNDER TOO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 3-7 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON
TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE
SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL
BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER
STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST OF MID-
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND
S-CENTRAL VT TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 62-67F
RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTH/SE...AROUND 5 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST OF MID-
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND
S-CENTRAL VT TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 62-67F
RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTH/SE...AROUND 5 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00004000

AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 062352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...SO
HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND EVENTUALLY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WE EXPECT
LOWER CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE RIDING
NORTH...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N AROUND OR
AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS S AND W.

AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD...TEMPS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME FALLING MUCH...ESP LATER TONIGHT ONCE
CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 65-70
RANGE IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER TOO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 3-7 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON
TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE
SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL
BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER
STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 062352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...SO
HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND EVENTUALLY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WE EXPECT
LOWER CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE RIDING
NORTH...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N AROUND OR
AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS S AND W.

AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD...TEMPS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME FALLING MUCH...ESP LATER TONIGHT ONCE
CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 65-70
RANGE IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT

00004000
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER TOO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 3-7 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON
TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE
SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL
BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER
STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-U
00004000
PPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTI
00004000
AL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 062037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE TENDED TO ERODE AS THEY
APPROACHED THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS SE CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOW FOR SOME
LINGERING SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE RIDING
NORTH...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO...AFTER THE INITIAL
ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...THERE MAY BE A LULL
IN PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP
FROM S TO N CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS S AND W.

AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD...TEMPS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME FALLING MUCH...ESP LATER TONIGHT ONCE
CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 65-70
RANGE IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REG
00004000
ION BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
INDICATED CHC POPS...FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO WESTERN MA/SW VT...WHERE A LOCAL MAX
OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO GREATER PROXIMITY TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. AS PWAT/S INCREASE ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...SOME BREAKS OF
SUN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM W TO E AND RESULT IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...BUT WE ALSO MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTERBALANCE THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY.
SO...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE QUITE NEBULOUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOONER...THEN
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ALSO...TOWARD SUNSET...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER CO BY OR AFTER SUNSET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY ONLY REACH THE 70S. IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID...HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER AT NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W. IT
SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK. IT
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN INTO
WESTERN MA/NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THEREFORE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FURTHER N AND W...ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MUCH LESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SW MA/NW CT.

WED NT...TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CMC INDICATING A WEAKER
DISTURBANCE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY WILL BE
A COOLER DAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT THOUGH...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THURSDAY...THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID JULY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. APPROACH FOR NOW IS TO
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS AND REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR WITH EVEN A
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. THEREFORE RAINFALL CHANCES
WILL RANGE FROM VCSH TO -SHRA AT BEST DURING THIS RAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT AND VSBYS MAY BE
IMPACTED HENCE WHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR KGFL. CONDITIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 08Z TUESDAY TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD UP
TO AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THEN WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM 12Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON
TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE
SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL
BASINS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER
STEM RIVERS WILL MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS FROM A WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLOWLY
RISING OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS FROM A WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS SLOWLY
RISING OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNO
00004000
ON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERG
00004000
Y EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS
UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND
INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGG
00004000
Y NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATIO
00004000
N AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KALY 061726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE...AND
ALSO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH...PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...LATEST RADARS SUGGEST ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILLS. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT FROM A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND RATHER DENSE SMOKE ALOFT
HAS LED TO ONLY DIM SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE
GENERAL SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN DESCRIPTION AS PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO INCREASE MORE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR WITH EVEN A
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. THEREFORE RAINFALL CHANCES
WILL RANGE FROM VCSH TO -SHRA AT BEST DURING THIS RAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT AND VSBYS MAY BE
IMPACTED HENCE WHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR KGFL. CONDITIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 08Z TUESDAY TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD UP
TO AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THEN WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM 12Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE...AND
ALSO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH...PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...LATEST RADARS SUGGEST ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILLS. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT FROM A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND RATHER DENSE SMOKE ALOFT
HAS LED TO ONLY DIM SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE
GENERAL SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN DESCRIPTION AS PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO INCREASE MORE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
00004000
 THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR WITH EVEN A
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. THEREFORE RAINFALL CHANCES
WILL RANGE FROM VCSH TO -SHRA AT BEST DURING THIS RAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT AND VSBYS MAY BE
IMPACTED HENCE WHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR KGFL. CONDITIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 08Z TUESDAY TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD UP
TO AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THEN WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM 12Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE...AND
ALSO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH...PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...LATEST RADARS SUGGEST ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILLS. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT FROM A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND RATHER DENSE SMOKE ALOFT
HAS LED TO ONLY DIM SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE
GENERAL SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN DESCRIPTION AS PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO INCREASE MORE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE...AND
ALSO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH...PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...LATEST RADARS SUGGEST ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILLS. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT FROM A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND RATHER DENSE SMOKE ALOFT
HAS LED TO ONLY DIM SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE
GENERAL SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN DESCRIPTION AS PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO INCREASE MORE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE
00004000
/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE...AND
ALSO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH...PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...LATEST RADARS SUGGEST ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILLS. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT FROM A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND RATHER DENSE SMOKE ALOFT
HAS LED TO ONLY DIM SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE
GENERAL SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN DESCRIPTION AS PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO INCREASE MORE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE...AND
ALSO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH...PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...LATEST RADARS SUGGEST ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILLS. FURTHER ENHANCEMENT FROM A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND RATHER DENSE SMOKE ALOFT
HAS LED TO ONLY DIM SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE
GENERAL SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN DESCRIPTION AS PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO INCREASE MORE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AN
00004000
D IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061628
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1228 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND RATHER DENSE SMOKE
ALOFT HAS LED TO ONLY DIM SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE
GENERAL SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN DESCRIPTION AS PARTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO INCREASE MORE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO
CAPTURE CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S
TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMIN
00004000
G DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO
CAPTURE CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S
TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO
CAPTURE CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S
TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO
CAPTURE CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S
TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...
00004000
FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KALY 061401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM EDT...A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND RATHER THICK SMOKE
ALOFT HAS LED TO ONLY DIM SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE
GENERAL SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN DESCRIPTION AS PARTLY SUNNY.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD APPROACH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
SUNSET.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM EDT...A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND RATHER THICK SMOKE
ALOFT HAS LED TO ONLY DIM SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE
GENERAL SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MAIN DESCRIPTION AS PARTLY SUNNY.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD APPROACH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
SUNSET.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM P
00004000
ORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.
OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL
LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.
OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL
LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS (

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURL
00004000
INGTON VT
711 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.
OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL
LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.
OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL
LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS.
OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL
LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH
TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING
THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14
AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC
DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIO
00000F30
N IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
     SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 061019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED
NEAR WEST VIRGINA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...NOW STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINA BORDER IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

CONVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO STRE
00004000
AM
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
KEEP IT RAIN FREE TODAY.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...850 HPA TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES C...ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SO IT WILL
START TO FEEL MUGGY BY THIS AFTN...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED
NEAR WEST VIRGINA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...NOW STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINA BORDER IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

CONVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO STREAM
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
KEEP IT RAIN FREE TODAY.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...850 HPA TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES C...ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SO IT WILL
START TO FEEL MUGGY BY THIS AFTN...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED
NEAR WEST VIRGINA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...NOW STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINA BORDER IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

CONVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO STREAM
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
KEEP IT RAIN FREE TODAY.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...850 HPA TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES C...ALLOWING FOR 
00004000
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SO IT WILL
START TO FEEL MUGGY BY THIS AFTN...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED
NEAR WEST VIRGINA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...NOW STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINA BORDER IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

CONVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO STREAM
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
KEEP IT RAIN FREE TODAY.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...850 HPA TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES C...ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SO IT WILL
START TO FEEL MUGGY BY THIS AFTN...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED
NEAR WEST VIRGINA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...NOW STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINA BORDER IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

CONVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO STREAM
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
KEEP IT RAIN FREE TODAY.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...850 HPA TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES C...ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SO IT WILL
START TO FEEL MUGGY BY THIS AFTN...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEAR
00004000
ED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 061019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED
NEAR WEST VIRGINA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...NOW STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINA BORDER IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

CONVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO STREAM
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
KEEP IT RAIN FREE TODAY.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...850 HPA TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES C...ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SO IT WILL
START TO FEEL MUGGY BY THIS AFTN...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DID EVOLVE FOR KPSF-KGFL WHERE AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE CIGS DID OCCUR FOR A QUICK NARROWING THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
 HOWEVER...WITH SUNRISE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND JOIN KALB-KPOU.  A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CANOPY OF INCREASING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHICH TOO COULD RESULT IN
LOWERING VIS BUT REMAINING ABOVE IFR/MVFR AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 060816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED
BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS STARTING TO
SLIDE EASTWARD...WHILE A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS
STARTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

CONVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO STREAM
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
KEEP IT RAIN FREE TODAY.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...850 HPA TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES C...ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SO IT WILL
START TO FEEL MUGGY BY THIS AFTN...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE 
00004000
GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING NEAR TERM AVIATION FORECAST AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE RATHER NARROW...YET SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS
REVEAL A CANOPY OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS PLACING A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO IFR OR NOT. CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT PROFILES POINT
TOWARD A MORE CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE PROBABILITIES
FOR IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...WE WILL LOWER INTO TEMPO GROUPS FOR
KGFL-KPSF WITH IFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KALB-KPOU.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 060816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED
BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS STARTING TO
SLIDE EASTWARD...WHILE A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS
STARTING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

CONVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO STREAM
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
KEEP IT RAIN FREE TODAY.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...850 HPA TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES C...ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SO IT WILL
START TO FEEL MUGGY BY THIS AFTN...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. STILL...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATE TONIGHT...ESP
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL RATHER
MUGGY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING. IT/S UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT
CAPE VALUES WILL BE AIDED BY THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. WITH
PWATS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY
LOW...JUST 20-25 KTS...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS
WELL...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED.
SPC DOESN/T HAVE OUR REGION IN ANY OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO
THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS
LOOK TO REACH INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 IN VALLEY AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT COULD BE
CROSSING THE CWA BETWEEN THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS DON/T LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
PWATS COULD EXCEED 2.00 INCHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RATHER
DRY AND TRANQUIL WITH NEAR SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

WE BEGIN THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  AS THIS
FRONT SLIDES TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR...IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW...NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION.

WHAT WAVE/S/ DO TRACK AND IMPACT THE REGION WILL DEPART BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REGIME
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS/GGEM MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED.  THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL DRIVEN CU AND TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING NEAR TERM AVIATION FORECAST AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE RATHER NARROW...YET SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS
REVEAL A CANOPY OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS PLACING A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO IFR OR NOT. CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT PROFILES POINT
TOWARD A MORE CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE PROBABILITIES
FOR IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...WE WILL LOWER INTO TEMPO GROUPS FOR
KGFL-KPSF WITH IFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KALB-KPOU.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ANY THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. WHILE SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY SMALL BASINS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MOST LARGER STEM RIVERS WILL
MAINLY STAY STEADY OR ONLY SEE MINOR RISES.

SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING
TWD NY. THINKING THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
RIDGE THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY
THIS AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH
VALUES BTWN 14 AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. SFC DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNC
00004000
ERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING
TWD NY. THINKING THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
RIDGE THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY
THIS AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH
VALUES BTWN 14 AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. SFC DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED
INTO THE UPPER 40S DEEPER MTN VALUES TO NEAR 60F BTV. ONLY CHANGE
TO CRNT FCST WAS TO DROP EXPECTED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F CPV.

GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED
INTO THE UPPER 40S DEEPER MTN VALUES TO NEAR 60F BTV. ONLY CHANGE
TO CRNT FCST WAS TO DROP EXPECTED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F CPV.

GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TH
00004000
IS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED
INTO THE UPPER 40S DEEPER MTN VALUES TO NEAR 60F BTV. ONLY CHANGE
TO CRNT FCST WAS TO DROP EXPECTED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F CPV.

GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED
INTO THE UPPER 40S DEEPER MTN VALUES TO NEAR 60F BTV. ONLY CHANGE
TO CRNT FCST WAS TO DROP EXPECTED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F CPV.

GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED
INTO THE UPPER 40S DEEPER MTN VALUES TO NEAR 60F BTV. ONLY CHANGE
TO CRNT FCST WAS TO DROP EXPECTED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F CPV.

GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SU
00004000
NDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT...ALTHOUGH SKIES BEGAN THE NIGHT COMPLETELY
CLEAR...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ARE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKY COVER WILL RANGE FROM NEARLY CLEAR
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY THIN AND HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOWER
PATCHES OF CLOUDS AS WELL.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS
LAST NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADKS WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING NEAR TERM AVIATION FORECAST AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE RATHER NARROW...YET SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS
REVEAL A CANOPY OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS PLACING A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO IFR OR NOT. CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT PROFILES POINT
TOWARD A MORE CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE PROBABILITIES
FOR IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...WE WILL LOWER INTO TEMPO GROUPS FOR
KGFL-KPSF WITH IFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KALB-KPOU.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 060526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT...ALTHOUGH SKIES BEGAN THE NIGHT COMPLETELY
CLEAR...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ARE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKY COVER WILL RANGE FROM NEARLY CLEAR
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY THIN AND HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOWER
PATCHES OF CLOUDS AS WELL.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS
LAST NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADKS WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING NEAR TERM AVIATION FORECAST AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE RATHER NARROW...YET SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS
REVEAL A CANOPY OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS PLACING A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO IFR OR NOT. CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT PROFILES POINT
TOWARD A MORE CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE PROBABILITIES
FOR IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...WE WILL LOWER INTO TEMPO GROUPS FOR
KGFL-KPSF WITH IFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KALB-KPOU.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 060526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT...ALTHOUGH SKIES BEGAN THE NIGHT COMPLETELY
CLEAR...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ARE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKY COVER WILL RANGE FROM NEARLY CLEAR
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY THIN AND HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOWER
PATCHES OF CLOUDS AS WELL.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS
LAST NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADKS WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGH
00004000
T AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING NEAR TERM AVIATION FORECAST AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE RATHER NARROW...YET SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS
REVEAL A CANOPY OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS PLACING A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO IFR OR NOT. CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT PROFILES POINT
TOWARD A MORE CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE PROBABILITIES
FOR IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...WE WILL LOWER INTO TEMPO GROUPS FOR
KGFL-KPSF WITH IFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KALB-KPOU.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060518
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE COOLED
INTO THE UPPER 40S DEEPER MTN VALUES TO NEAR 60F BTV. ONLY CHANGE
TO CRNT FCST WAS TO DROP EXPECTED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SLK/NEK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F CPV.

GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR
LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8
KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE
AT PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT...ALTHOUGH SKIES BEGAN THE NIGHT COMPLETELY
CLEAR...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ARE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKY COVER WILL RANGE FROM NEARLY CLEAR
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY THIN AND HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOWER
PATCHES OF CLOUDS AS WELL.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS
LAST NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADKS WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
KGFL/KPSF STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR AT KALB/KPOU FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BUT
FOG STILL POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 060508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT...ALTHOUGH SKIES BEGAN THE NIGHT COMPLETELY
CLEAR...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ARE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKY COVER WILL RANGE FROM NEARLY CLEAR
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY THIN AND HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOWER
PATCHES OF CLOUDS AS WELL.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FO
00004000
G
FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS
LAST NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADKS WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
KGFL/KPSF STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR AT KALB/KPOU FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BUT
FOG STILL POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 060508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT...ALTHOUGH SKIES BEGAN THE NIGHT COMPLETELY
CLEAR...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ARE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKY COVER WILL RANGE FROM NEARLY CLEAR
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY THIN AND HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOWER
PATCHES OF CLOUDS AS WELL.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS
LAST NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADKS WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
KGFL/KPSF STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR AT KALB/KPOU FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BUT
FOG STILL POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 060508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT...ALTHOUGH SKIES BEGAN THE NIGHT COMPLETELY
CLEAR...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ARE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKY COVER WILL RANGE FROM NEARLY CLEAR
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY THIN AND HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME LOWER
PATCHES OF CLOUDS AS WELL.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS
LAST NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADKS WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
KGFL/KPSF STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR AT KALB/KPOU FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BUT
FOG STILL POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND S
00004000
IGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 060230
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS FROM A FEW
HOURS AGO STILL SHOWED SMOKE AT HIGHER LEVELS FROM FOREST FIRES
WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION FROM CANADA. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS
NEAR BODIES OF WATER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
KGFL/KPSF STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR AT KALB/KPOU FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BUT
FOG STILL POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 060230
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS FROM A FEW
HOURS AGO STILL SHOWED SMOKE AT HIGHER LEVELS FROM FOREST FIRES
WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION FROM CANADA. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS
NEAR BODIES OF WATER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
KGFL/KPSF STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR AT KALB/KPOU FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BUT
FOG STILL POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH
AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED
MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8
KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE
AT PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS..
00004000
.WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH
AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED
MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8
KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE
AT PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 052349
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
749 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 749 PM EDT...DIURNAL CU CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS STILL SHOWING SMOKE AT HIGHER LEVELS FROM
FOREST FIRES WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION FROM
CANADA. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS
AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
KGFL/KPSF STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR AT KALB/KPOU FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BUT
FOG STILL POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 052349
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
749 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 749 PM EDT...DIURNAL CU CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS STILL SHOWING SMOKE AT HIGHER LEVELS FROM
FOREST FIRES WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION FROM
CANADA. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS
AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
KGFL/KPSF STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR AT KALB/KPOU FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BUT
FOG STILL POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUN
00004000
DERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL APPEAR A LITTLE HAZY ALOFT DUE SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THROUGH 70S INTO 60S
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT
ALL COVERED. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE
USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8
KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE
AT PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL APPEAR A LITTLE HAZY ALOFT DUE SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THROUGH 70S INTO 60S
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT
ALL COVERED. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE
USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8
KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE
AT PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL APPEAR A LITTLE HAZY ALOFT DUE SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THROUGH 70S INTO 60S
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT
ALL COVERED. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE
USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 643 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL APPEAR A LITTLE HAZY ALOFT DUE SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THROUGH 70S INTO 60S
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT
ALL COVERED. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING
PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FOR
00004000
M AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE
USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 052103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOWS PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...STLT PICS SHOW DIURNAL CU ALREADY DECREASING
AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
VISIBLE STLT PICS STILL SHOWING SMOKE AT HIGHER LEVELS FROM FOREST
FIRES WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE 50 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VSIBILITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK. IT
LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO FOR
NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 052103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOWS PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...STLT PICS SHOW DIURNAL CU ALREADY DECREASING
AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
VISIBLE STLT PICS STILL SHOWING SMOKE AT HIGHER LEVELS FROM FOREST
FIRES WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE 50 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VSIBILITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK. IT
LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO FOR
NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
00004000

NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO
-4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051847
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051847
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUG
00004000
H
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051847
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD
FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE
DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...MUCH BETTER DAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN...UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VSIBILITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK. IT
LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO FOR
NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...MUCH BETTER DAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN...UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. A
00004000
S FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VSIBILITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK. IT
LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO FOR
NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. THERE WAS SOME
RESIDUAL HAZE REPORTED AT POUGHKEEPSIE BUT THAT WILL MIX OUT SOON. THE 12A
ALY RAOB INDICATED THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE F
00004000
OR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VSIBILITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK. IT
LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO FOR
NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. THERE WAS SOME
RESIDUAL HAZE REPORTED AT POUGHKEEPSIE BUT THAT WILL MIX OUT SOON. THE 12A
ALY RAOB INDICATED THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VSIBILITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK. IT
LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO FOR
NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. THERE WAS SOME
RESIDUAL HAZE REPORTED AT POUGHKEEPSIE BUT THAT WILL MIX OUT SOON. THE 12A
ALY RAOB INDICATED THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT
000028FE
 SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBLITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK.
IT LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO
FOR NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. THERE WAS SOME
RESIDUAL HAZE REPORTED AT POUGHKEEPSIE BUT THAT WILL MIX OUT SOON. THE 12A
ALY RAOB INDICATED THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBLITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK.
IT LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO
FOR NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MO
00004000
ISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. THERE WAS SOME
RESIDUAL HAZE REPORTED AT POUGHKEEPSIE BUT THAT WILL MIX OUT SOON. THE 12A
ALY RAOB INDICATED THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBLITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK.
IT LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO
FOR NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. THERE WAS SOME
RESIDUAL HAZE REPORTED AT POUGHKEEPSIE BUT THAT WILL MIX OUT SOON. THE 12A
ALY RAOB INDICATED THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBLITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK.
IT LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO
FOR NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW
00004000
 WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
00004000

HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
117 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER
LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG
LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. THERE WAS SOME
RESIDUAL HAZE REPORTED AT POUGHKEEPSIE BUT THAT WILL MIX OUT SOON. THE 12A
ALY RAOB INDICATED THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS 1130Z...STILL DEALING WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG AT SOME OF OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT IT WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 13Z.

OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE NO AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY AS WE ENJOY
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY (ONCE THE FOG LIFTS)...A LIGHT WEST WIND
UNDER 10KTS AND EVENTUALLY FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000-6000 FEET BY
AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
IT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE IFR
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. THERE WAS SOME
RESIDUAL HAZE REPORTED AT POUGHKEEPSIE BUT THAT WILL MIX OUT SOON. THE 12A
ALY RAOB INDICATED THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS A LITTLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MOND
00004000
AY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS 1130Z...STILL DEALING WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG AT SOME OF OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT IT WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 13Z.

OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE NO AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY AS WE ENJOY
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY (ONCE THE FOG LIFTS)...A LIGHT WEST WIND
UNDER 10KTS AND EVENTUALLY FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000-6000 FEET BY
AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
IT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE IFR
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFAC
00004000
E FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THIS HIGH LEVEL THIN SMOKE LAYER IS COMING FROM WILDFIRES
OVER WESTERN CANADA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON
CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POT
00004000
ENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED
00004000
 OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR BETWEEN
06-12Z MON AT KSLK/KMPV.

WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...FOG WAS THE MAIN
CULPRIT ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.
 WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED POOR VISIBILITIES.
SUNRISE WILL ALLOW FOR THIS FOG TO BURN OFF SOON AND LEAVE BEHIND
A PTSUNNY-MOSUNNY SKY.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS 1130Z...STILL DEALING WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG AT SOME OF OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT IT WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 13Z.

OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE NO AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY AS WE ENJOY
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY (ONCE THE FOG LIFTS)...A LIGHT WEST WIND
UNDER 10KTS AND EVENTUALLY FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000-6000 FEET BY
AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
IT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE IFR
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...FOG WAS THE MAIN
CULPRIT ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.
 WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED POOR VISIBILITIES.
SUNRISE WILL ALLOW FOR THIS FOG TO BURN OFF SOON AND LEAVE BEHIND
A PTSUNNY-MOSUNNY SKY.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS 1130Z...STILL DEALING WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG AT SOME OF OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT IT WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 13Z.

OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE NO AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY AS WE ENJOY
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY (ONCE THE FOG LIFTS)...A LIGHT WEST WIND
UNDER 10KTS AND EVENTUALLY FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000-6000 FEET BY
AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
IT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE IFR
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMP
00004000
ACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...FOG WAS THE MAIN
CULPRIT ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.
 WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED POOR VISIBILITIES.
SUNRISE WILL ALLOW FOR THIS FOG TO BURN OFF SOON AND LEAVE BEHIND
A PTSUNNY-MOSUNNY SKY.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS 1130Z...STILL DEALING WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG AT SOME OF OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT IT WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 13Z.

OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE NO AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY AS WE ENJOY
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY (ONCE THE FOG LIFTS)...A LIGHT WEST WIND
UNDER 10KTS AND EVENTUALLY FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000-6000 FEET BY
AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
IT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE IFR
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...FOG WAS THE MAIN
CULPRIT ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.
 WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED POOR VISIBILITIES.
SUNRISE WILL ALLOW FOR THIS FOG TO BURN OFF SOON AND LEAVE BEHIND
A PTSUNNY-MOSUNNY SKY.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS 1130Z...STILL DEALING WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG AT SOME OF OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT IT WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 13Z.

OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE NO AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY AS WE ENJOY
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY (ONCE THE FOG LIFTS)...A LIGHT WEST WIND
UNDER 10KTS AND EVENTUALLY FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000-6000 FEET BY
AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
IT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE IFR
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

00004000

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING AND MATCH GRIDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. IR SAT SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCH FOG.
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
STILL EXPECTING SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND WEAK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M/U 70S MTN TOWNS
TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL
5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED
VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY
AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S
CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 625 AM EDT...FOG WAS THE MAIN
CULPRIT ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.
 WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED POOR VISBILITIES.
SUNRISE WILL ALLOW FOR THIS FOG TO BURN OFF SOON AND LEAVE BEHIND A
PTSUNNY-MOSUNNY SKY.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUES AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO W
00002DA7
ATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WITH STRONG SUNSHINE IN PLACE...MORNING FOG IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AND SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE FOR THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
12Z...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR ALL SITES.

SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE WITH W-SW WINDS AT 5-10
KTS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. IT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE IFR
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 625 AM EDT...FOG WAS THE MAIN
CULPRIT ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.
 WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED POOR VISBILITIES.
SUNRISE WILL ALLOW FOR THIS FOG TO BURN OFF SOON AND LEAVE BEHIND A
PTSUNNY-MOSUNNY SKY.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUES AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WITH STRONG SUNSHINE IN PLACE...MORNING FOG IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AND SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE FOR THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
12Z...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR ALL SITES.

SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE WITH W-SW WINDS AT 5-10
KTS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. IT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE IFR
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

      
      

  
    
  
  
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