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000098AF000
FXUS61 KBTV 260225
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare
outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern
counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and
seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and
summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with
moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry,
there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1021 PM EDT Wednesday...updated forecast to remove mention
of showers as threat of any precip has ended. in addition...with
the very limited areal coverage of the isolated showers
earlier...have reduced the fog coverage tonight across the
northeast kingdom/eastern sections. still thinking the sheltered
valleys of the passumpsic and ct river valleys will see some
patchy fog after midnight. dewpoints have jumped into the
lower/mid 50s this evening...but expect them to drop back into the
40s/lower 50s overnight as north winds behind weak boundary
advects drier air into our region. still looking at lows mainly in
the upper 40s to upper 50s.

By later tonight skies gradually trend mostly clear and winds
become light as surface high pressure returns to the region. Some
patchy fog will be possible in any areas that do receive rainfall
this evening, with highest probabilities across northeastern VT.
Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance,
generally from 45 to 55 with some variability.

On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with
mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb
temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little
airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper
70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual
increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the
forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust
this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the
ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.  At this point have
introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks
west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for
this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm front will traverse across
the North Country Thursday night through Friday, producing showers
and thunderstorms with the best chance for thunderstorms occurring
Friday afternoon. PWATS increase to 1-1.5 inches which could help
showers and thunderstorms create periods of heavy rain. NAM BUFKIT
forecast sounding profiles show CAPE values greater than 1000J/kg
with enough daytime heating to reach convective temperatures. This
along with possible elevated mixed layer that will move across the
St Lawrence Valley and Northern tier of CWA support potential for
convection on Friday. Caveat being lack of lift on Friday, so will
mainly rely on heating and moist atmosphere.

Showers, clouds and warmer air filtering in will keep min
temperatures Thursday night in the 50s to low 60s. 925mb
temperatures increase into the low 20s on Friday, resulting in
maxes in the 70s to mid 80s.

Friday night will see showers and thunderstorms diminish with
nocturnal cooling settling in and ridging aloft begins to build to
our south and east. Min temperatures will remain above normal,
generally in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled weather expected
throughout the long term as we remain on the periphery of the
upper ridge. This will result in chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon, throughout the
holiday weekend. Max temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s
with some spots in the southern valleys nearing 90 when the upper
ridge axis begins to crest over the region.

On Sunday, upper level disturbances will move into the region
keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms. While upstream,
upper level shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region,
reflected at the surface as a gradually strengthening low pressure
system. This system will drag a cold front across the area Monday
with showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, models
diverge on how dry conditions will be.

Overall, above normal temperatures continue with summer-like
conditions...aka showers and thunderstorm potential.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR expected through the period. A weak
frontal boundary has passed through the region and winds have
shifted to northwesterly at 05-10 knots and will go light and
variable overnight before resuming lightly out of the north
friday morning. There is a small window for potential fog at SLK
from 09-11z and possible IFR conditions along with that.
Confidence is not high at this time so have gone with a MVFR in
the taf to reflect the potential.

Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday...

18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/MV

000
FXUS61 KALY 260005
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight.  The boundary will lift back northward as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions will persist for the
holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT... not much change to the forecast at this time
with weak frontal boundary drifting southward with some isolated
showers. The other batch of showers across Litchfield County
continues to dissipate. So just FEW-SCT clouds, mainly the mid
level variety, to continue this evening. A period of clearing is
expected overnight before some increase in clouds arrives from
upstream.

Prev Disc...A weak cold front continues to move across eastern NY
and western New England with a band of clouds and some isolated
showers/sprinkles from the Capital Region north...and a wind shift
from the south to southwest to the west to northwest. Some wind
gusts have been close to 30 kts...and temps spiked into the upper
80s to 90F /KPOU/ ahead of the front. The low-levels remain dry
with sfc dewpts in the 40s to l50s. That will change FRI into the
holiday weekend.

The boundary will stall over eastern NY and south-central New
England. There is no clean synoptic forcing with the front...so we
expect the isolated showers to die off with the daytime
heating...and variable cloudy conditions to persist tonight. The
winds will become light and variable which will allow temps to
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s in many of the valley
spots...and upper 40s to mid 50s over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tomorrow...Most of the day should be dry...as our forecast leans
closer to the latest NAM/EC trends with the front starting to lift
back north as a warm front during the afternoon time frame. The
Showalter stability values do not become very negative...and it
will take a little time for the low-level moisture to increase.
Clouds will increase from the south and west during the
afternoon...with the best chc of showers or a thunderstorm west of
the Hudson River Valley. Highs will again run above normal by
10-15 degrees with highs in the mid 80s /with a few upper 80s in
the mid Hudson Valley/ in valley locations...and 70s to lower 80s
over the hills and mountains.

Tonight...The better synoptic lift with the warm front is during
this time frame. Weak elevated instability is implied with pockets
of Showalter values of 0 to -2C. The weak warm advection should
help expand the shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of weak
midlevel short-wave with the front. High chc pops were kept in the
forecast with the chc of showers and thunderstorms. Lows will be
of the wet bulb variety in the upper 50 to mid 60s.

Friday...Some residual showers and thunderstorms will persist from
the Capital Region north and east in the morning. Sfc dewpts into
the lower to mids 60s in the warm sector. It will become hot and
humid with H850 temps rising to +15C to +17C with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and u70s to mid
80s over the hills and mountains. Some pop-up thunderstorms may
occur in the afternoon.

Fri night into Saturday...The subtropical or Bermuda high builds
in with heights exceeding 585 dams at H500. It will be warm and
humid with lows in the 60s with any diurnally driven convection
diminishing quickly Fri night. Some differential heating/pop-up
showers and thunderstorms are possible especially SAT afternoon.
Despite increasing CAPE and PWATS /1-1.5"/ their is no clear
trigger to focus convection and a low to mid level CAP should be
setting up to suppress it. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the above normal PWATS. Highs once again will be in the 80s
with some lower 90s in the valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Bermuda high is expected to have a hold of the eastern United
States. Our region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system for the latter half of the long holiday weekend. This places
us in a warm and unstable airmass with chances for convection each
day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it
appears the low pressure system`s cold front should cross the region
late Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the flow aloft becoming
zonal over the region the cold front is expected to stall to are
south likely in the vicinity of I-80 and the New York Metropolitan
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Overall highs are expected to run above normal by around 10 degrees
both for highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions to continue with the potential for some
mist/fog mainly at KGFL. There will be an increase in clouds late
tonight and through Thursday along with the chance of
showers/storms during the afternoon. For now, we will place VCSH.

Winds will diminish from the westerly direction around 10kts to
light and variable tonight. Then a gradual shift to the south-
southeast less than 10kts Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

The RH values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and then
lower to 35 to 45 percent tomorrow afternoon. Expect a nearly full
recovery Thursday night to 90 to 100 percent with showers and
thunderstorms around.

The winds will decrease from the southwest to northwest at 10 to
20 mph...to light in variable in direction at 5 mph or less
tonight. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph tomorrow into tomorrow night.

Warm and humid conditions will persist for the holiday weekend
with the Bermuda high in control...as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
This feature will bring humid days and nights will a full RH
recovery.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Monday.

A warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts will vary from a few hundredths to a quarter of
an inch or so locally.

As a Bermuda high forms, we can expect warm and increasingly
humid weather Friday through the weekend. While most of that time
will be rainfree, there is an increasing chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. These look scattered...but as
precipitable water values increase well above normal in the inch
to an inch and a half range, then locally heavy rainfall will
possible through the holiday weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula

000
FXUS61 KBTV 252319
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare
outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern
counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and
seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and
summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with
moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry,
there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 656 PM EDT Wednesday...updated forecast to decrease areal
coverage of showers and thunderstorms and remove mention of gusty
winds. water vapor shows deep layer aloft across our
region...which has suppressed any convective development. best
combination of dynamics associated with tail of 5h vort and some
limited 850 to 500mb moisture will be across northern vt into the
northeast kingdom through 03z. have continued to mention chance
pops with slight chance of thunder...as current radar shows
two weak cells approaching the international border. utilizing the
distance arrival tool has them approaching our border by 00z. will
continue to monitor for potential lightning...but so far nothing
noted. rest of forecast in good shape.

By later tonight skies gradually trend mostly clear and winds
become light as surface high pressure returns to the region. Some
patchy fog will be possible in any areas that do receive rainfall
this evening, with highest probabilities across northeastern VT.
Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance,
generally from 45 to 55 with some variability.

On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with
mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb
temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little
airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper
70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual
increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the
forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust
this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the
ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.  At this point have
introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks
west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for
this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm front will traverse across
the North Country Thursday night through Friday, producing showers
and thunderstorms with the best chance for thunderstorms occurring
Friday afternoon. PWATS increase to 1-1.5 inches which could help
showers and thunderstorms create periods of heavy rain. NAM BUFKIT
forecast sounding profiles show CAPE values greater than 1000J/kg
with enough daytime heating to reach convective temperatures. This
along with possible elevated mixed layer that will move across the
St Lawrence Valley and Northern tier of CWA support potential for
convection on Friday. Caveat being lack of lift on Friday, so will
mainly rely on heating and moist atmosphere.

Showers, clouds and warmer air filtering in will keep min
temperatures Thursday night in the 50s to low 60s. 925mb
temperatures increase into the low 20s on Friday, resulting in
maxes in the 70s to mid 80s.

Friday night will see showers and thunderstorms diminish with
nocturnal cooling settling in and ridging aloft begins to build to
our south and east. Min temperatures will remain above normal,
generally in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled weather expected
throughout the long term as we remain on the periphery of the
upper ridge. This will result in chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon, throughout the
holiday weekend. Max temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s
with some spots in the southern valleys nearing 90 when the upper
ridge axis begins to crest over the region.

On Sunday, upper level disturbances will move into the region
keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms. While upstream,
upper level shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region,
reflected at the surface as a gradually strengthening low pressure
system. This system will drag a cold front across the area Monday
with showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, models
diverge on how dry conditions will be.

Overall, above normal temperatures continue with summer-like
conditions...aka showers and thunderstorm potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR expected through the period. A weak
frontal boundary has passed through the region and winds have
shifted to northwesterly at 05-10 knots and will go light and
variable overnight before resuming lightly out of the north
friday morning. There is a small window for potential fog at SLK
from 09-11z and possible IFR conditions along with that.
Confidence is not high at this time so have gone with a MVFR in
the taf to reflect the potential.

Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday...

18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/MV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 251900
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare
outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern
counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and
seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and
summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with
moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry,
there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains on track as we
progress toward the late afternoon/early evening hours. The tail
end of a weak surface trough/front is in the process of dropping
south into our northern counties as of 300 pm with a modest wind
shift to the west/northwest behind the boundary across neighboring
southern QE/ON. The front will cross the region this evening with
little fanfare, though weak instability, combined with increasing
0-6km shear and some PVA from a shortwave passing off to our
northeast may be just enough to spark a few showers/isolated
storms along and north of a KSLK to K1V4 line through 8-9pm or so.
Given our deep boundary layer this afternoon (to 10 kft) any storm
that does develop will have the potential to produce locally gusty
winds and will continue this idea through early evening. The
threat is conditional however. By later tonight skies gradually
trend mostly clear and winds become light as surface high pressure
returns to the region. Some patchy fog will be possible in any
areas that do receive rainfall this evening, with highest
probabilities across northeastern VT. Low temperatures a blend of
bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance, generally from 45 to 55
with some variability.

On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with
mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb
temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little
airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper
70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual
increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the
forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust
this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the
ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.  At this point have
introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks
west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for
this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area
thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday.
thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum
temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s...
then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very
warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from
warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a
bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures
continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place.
they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day
forecast...both days feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms
also. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will
ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold
front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for
sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance
for showers on sunday. for monday and tuesday temperatures will
trend back towards seasonal normals with a low passing north of
our area and showers spreading across the north country.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR expected through the period. Weak
frontal boundary passing through the region this afternoon will
foster a wind shift to northwesterly in the 18-00Z time frame,
after which winds trend light and variable overnight into Thursday
morning. Along the front, just an outside chance of a
shower/thunderstorm at northern terminals through 01Z or so.
Threat is conditional at this time and confidence is low that any
storm will discretely affect any terminal. If it were to occur,
brief gusty winds and MVFR visibilities would be possible. After
12Z Thursday VFR continues under light northerly flow.

Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday...

18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat apears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 251800
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move southward from the Saint Lawrence Valley
this afternoon. This boundary will eventually stall across the
region tonight then move back north as a warm front late in the
week. A large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather as we
head into the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 159 PM EDT...High pressure is ridging in from the
south...as a cold front has become stationary near the St Lawrence
River Valley. Temps are exceeding current forecasted values...so
have increased 2 to 3 degrees with mid and upper 80s possible in
the Hudson River Valley. A few showers are possible for the
western Adirondacks with a weak disturbance ahead of the front.
Slight chc pops were kept in there. Better Chances for any
convection should be limited to northern New York and the
Adirondacks in the vicinity of the boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any convection will dissipate quickly after sunset. We will be
left with a clear to partly cloudy night with a summery feel, as
low temperatures only dip to around 50 in the coolest spots, 55-60
in most areas, warmest right in the Capital region. The wind will
become light and once again there could be a few patches of fog
around daybreak.

We continue to see some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage
of clouds and how extensive any shower or thunderstorm activity
will be on Thursday and Friday. It looks as if a weak boundary
and another disturbance could trigger some convection later
Thursday as dewpoints increase into the 60s, although SBCAPES do
not look that high (500-1000 J/KG). Most of the day will be dry
and there will a good of deal sunshine as well. Very warm
temperatures will likely be a point or two higher than Wednesday.

Scattered convection could linger into Thursday night as the
aforementioned boundary slowly lifts northward as warm front
through our region.

By Friday, 500 MB heights continue to rise as an impressive ridge
builds just to our south, reaching close to 590 hectopascals  , not
too shabby for May. Rising heights tend to induce subsidence and
capping.

Still most models do indicate a scattered of showers and
thunderstorms for mainly Friday afternoon so will continue with
low chances of thunderstorms. It will be another very warm to hot
day with highs 85-90 in the valleys, 80-85 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.

There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through
Monday with a chance of showers on Tuesday. The activity will be
most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours. The forecast
area will be impacted by ridge rollers as moisture rides along theof the ridge which will be anchored to our south. Sunday and
Monday are the days during which the thunderstorm activity looks
most widespread as a back door cold front drops southwest on Sunday
and returns north as a warm front on Monday.

Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with highs on Sunday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Highs on Monday are
expected to be in the 70s with mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows
Friday night and Saturday night are expected to be in the 60s with
lows Sunday night and Monday night in the mid 50s to around 60.

Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aloft, heights will continue to rise as ridging builds in through
the overnight into Thursday. At the surface, a cold front is
approaching from the Saint Lawrence Valley. This boundary will
move gradually southeastward across the region through Thursday.
Chances for any convection through the TAF period 18z/Thu should
be limited to the northern New York in the vicinity of the boundary
this afternoon, north of KGFL.

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, 18Z/Thu. The exception
will be the possibility will be for MVFR due to fog at KGFL late
tonight.

Westerly winds with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon will diminish
this evening.

Outlook...
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday night through Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA...and mainly PM TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Outside of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms across the
Adirondacks, it should be a dry warm day today. RH values will
drop into the 30s in most valley locations this afternoon, but
stay in the 40s across most of the higher terrain. A west wind
will average 10 mph later in the morning through early evening.
There will be some gusts to 20 mph across the higher elevations,
Mohawk valley and Greater Capital District.

A Bermuda high will take control of our weather for the next
several upcoming day. This feature will bring very warm
increasingly humid days and nights will full recovery. There will
be chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
especially over the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Saturday.

Today looks mainly dry outside a few possible showers and
thunderstorms across the Adirondacks. As a Bermuda high forms, we
can expect warm and increasingly humid weather Thursday through
the weekend.

While most of that time will be rainfree, there is an increasing
chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. These look
scattered but as PWATS increase well over an inch, isolated heavy
rainfall will possible by Friday afternoon.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/Wasula
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 251426
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1026 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire
holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes
established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this
afternoon and enhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of
which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on
Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend
will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about
chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1026 AM EDT Wednesday...Current forecast remains on track
and only some nominal adjustments to hourly temperatures/dewpoints
were needed to shore up short term trends. Have a great day. Prior
discussion follows.

Prior discussion...
Going forecast in good shape with only some minor tweaks to
temperatures and dew points to match current conditions.
Otherwise...relatively quiet weather is expected this
morning...but as a cold front moves down out of Canada later today
through the first part of tonight...the threat for thunderstorms
will exist. The best potential for storms still looks to be north
of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In addition...dry air
in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help to create an
inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher based
thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty winds.
Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this afternoon
and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by midnight.
High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft
develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before
midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night.
Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to
the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a
good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little
cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area
thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday.
thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum
temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s...
then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very
warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from
warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a
bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures
continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place.
they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day
forecast...both days feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms
also. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will
ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold
front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for
sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance
for showers on sunday. for monday and tuesday temperatures will
trend back towards seasonal normals with a low passing north of
our area and showers spreading across the north country.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. still some
fg at mpv and rut early this morning. think that fog should lift
by about 10 am. then, VFR continues with mainly clear skies
through 18z. There will be an increasing threat of showers and a
few storms after 18Z an have vcsh mentioned at this time. showers
will end with loss of daytime heating later on this evening.

Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday...

12Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles

000
FXUS61 KBTV 251120
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire
holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes
established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this
afternoon and e
00002EF6
nhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of
which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on
Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend
will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about
chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 654 AM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in good shape with
only some minor tweaks to temperatures and dew points to match
current conditions. Otherwise...relatively quiet weather is
expected this morning...but as a cold front moves down out of
Canada later today through the first part of tonight...the threat
for thunderstorms will exist. The best potential for storms still
looks to be north of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In
addition...dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help
to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher
based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty
winds. Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by
midnight. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft
develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before
midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night.
Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to
the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a
good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little
cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area
thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday.
thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum
temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s...
then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very
warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from
warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a
bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures
continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place.
they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day
forecast...both days feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms
also. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will
ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold
front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for
sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance
for showers on sunday. for monday and tuesday temperatures will
trend back towards seasonal normals with a low passing north of
our area and showers spreading across the north country.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. still some
fg at mpv and rut early this morning. think that fog should lift
by about 10 am. then, VFR continues with mainly clear skies
through 18z. There will be an increasing threat of showers and a
few storms after 18Z an have vcsh mentioned at this time. showers
will end with loss of daytime heating later on this evening.

Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday...

12Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles

000
FXUS61 KBTV 250842
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
442 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire
holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes
established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this
afternoon and enhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of
which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on
Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend
will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about
chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Relatively quiet weather is expected
this morning...but as a cold front moves down out of Canada later
today through the first part of tonight...the threat for
thunderstorms will exist. The best potential for storms still
looks to be north of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In
addition...dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help
to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher
based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty
winds. Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by
midnight. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft
develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before
midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night.
Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to
the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a
good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little
cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area
thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area.
warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday.
thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum
temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s...
then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very
warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from
warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm
temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a
bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures
continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place.
they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day
forecast. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will
ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold
front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for
sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance
for showers to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. clearing
skies and light winds across the area overnight. will see some br
at times for mpv and rut after soaking rains today left abundant
low level moisture. After 12Z, VFR continues with mainly clear
skies through 18z. There will be an increasing threat of showers
and a few storms after 18Z an have vcsh mentioned at this time.

Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday...

06Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles

000
FXUS61 KBTV 250808
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
408 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire
holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes
established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this
afternoon and enhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of
which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on
Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend
will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about
chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Relatively quiet weather is expected
this morning...but as a cold front moves down out of Canada later
today through the first part of tonight...the threat for
thunderstorms will exist. The best potential for storms still
looks to be north of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In
addition...dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help
to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher
based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty
winds. Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by
midnight. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft
develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before
midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night.
Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to
the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a
good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little
cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday evening will see some
lingering showers as an upper level shortwave continues to affect
the North Country. Showers will exit south and east as the
shortwave shifts into the Gulf of Maine. Drying trend for the rest
of Wednesday night with mild temperatures in the mid 40s to mid
50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region. On Thursday, 925mb
temperatures increase to the upper teens to near 20C. Southerly
flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will accompany
maximum temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will be interrupted by a
weakening upper level shortwave moving from west to east Thursday
night. This will result in increasing clouds with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. The mid-upper level pattern transitions
to keep the North Country in the periphery of ridging which looks
to allow a chance of convective showers and thunderstorms every
day through the weekend.

There is the potential for a cold front to move through the region
over the weekend, which could lead to a break in precip and slightly
cooler temperatures. Overall, much uncertainty exists in the long
term due to more zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to be
above normal throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. clearing
skies and light winds across the area overnight. will see some br
at times for mpv and rut after soaking rains today left abundant
low level moisture. After 12Z, VFR continues with mainly clear
skies through 18z. There will be an increasing threat of showers
and a few storms after 18Z an have vcsh mentioned at this time.

Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday...

06Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Neiles

000
FXUS61 KALY 250611
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a 
00004000
large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 210 AM EDT...showers have dissipated across all of our region,
and so have many of the clouds.

However, as moisture pooled from the Hudson valley eastward,
patchy dense fog was beginning to form from the Hudson valley
eastward with dewpoints still around 50 or higher, compared to much
lower levels just west, where they were from the upper 30s to mid
40s.

At this time of night, with decoupling, there really is no way for
these dewpoints to advect further east, so we don`t expect much in
them overnight.

We did however, lower some places a couple of degrees. Look for lows
generally 45-50 with light or calm wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.

Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.

There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.

A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/.  We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend.  However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.

Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region.  As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer.  Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c.  So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids.  Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY.  If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern.  For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.

For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast.  Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It looks as if we will dealing with quite a bit of IFR flying
conditions through 11Z thanks to residual low level moisture trapped
in the Hudson valley and Berkshires. This despite our local Fog
study program did not forecast any fog in any of the TAFs.

As of 06Z Low IFR was already reported at KGFL and KPSF. While KALB
was still VFR their remarks indicated patches of fog (BCFG) so we
believe they too will have at least temporary times of IFR.

KPOU looks to have some IFR fog although studies have indicated it
is hard to fog at the site.

Any and all fog will be gone before 12Z leaving us to a VFR flying
day as dry air will mix down as a breeze kicks in from the west, 5-
10KTS, gusting to 20KTS by midday at KPSF and KALB. After 12Z clouds
will be few-sct with some cumulus around 5 KFT and a few higher
clouds at times.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.

RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.

The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 250012
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT...Weak deformation axis association with
scattered to broken band of showers just east of the Hudson River
should continue into the evening hours. The upper low in the
vicinity of Providence, RI is beginning to show signs of tracking
ENE per the latest H2O loop analysis. With this movement we should
see a diminishing trend in the showers which too is suggested by
the HRRR. So main update was to the sky coverage, PoPs/WX, removed
the mention of thunder and expanded the fog a little further west
to include the Hudson River Valley overnight as skies should clear
overnight under diminishing winds. Question will be just how much
fog impact will occur as dewpoints upstream were between 30-40F
compared to mid 50s across eastern NY. We will monitor closely.

Prev disc...Upper low departing northeast slowly but steadily.
Very narrow band of rain in eastern NY with some isolated
thunderstorms from the Berkshires through NW CT and the mid Hudson
Valley. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will build east and
dissipate through the evening...and clearing will take place
through the night.

Quite a bit of clearing outside of the moisture field of the upper
low...so by daybreak most areas should be clear to mostly clear.
There could be some patchy fog as low level winds should trend to
calm and areas with wet ground could support some patchy fog but
with dryer surface dewpoints advecting in...it could minimize
chances for fog. Only including patchy fog for areas east of the
Hudson Valley into western New England where most of the rain has
fallen. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good consensus in guidance for sunny to mostly sunny sky over most
of our region Wednesday...but weak upper energy scraping far
northern areas...along with a tightening of the boundary layer
temperature gradient could support some isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Winds from the surface through the
boundary layer are expected to be west...and could be a bit gusty
in the afternoon. The mixing should help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 80s in many areas...a few upper 80s mid Hudson Valley
and upper 70s to lower 80s northern areas.

Some mixed signals in guidance as to coverage of clouds and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Wherever the weak boundary stalls Wednesday night...will
return north Thursday...and could be a diffuse focus for some
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in northern areas.
Increasing low level moisture and instability could support
diurnal type isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in other areas of terrain Thursday afternoon and
evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.

There could be some old convective debris that could filter the
sun at times Thursday and Friday...too. Upper level ridging and
low level ridging build east...allowing for deep southwest
flow...warming boundary layer temperatures and increasing low
level humidity. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 to lower 80s in higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 80s...but around 90 southern areas and lower 80s northern
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.

A very active weather pattern across the eastern seaboard as we
monitor the tropics, frontal boundary nearby along with increasing
temperatures and humidity /along with the heat index/.  We are well
into the warm sector Friday night as H850 temps surge well into the
mid-teens which should continue into the weekend.  However, several
instability factors also climb, although, shear parameters are less
than ideal.

Through Saturday, ridge axis at the surface and especially aloft
builds across the region.  As dewpoints climb well into the 60s and
PWATS climbing toward 1.50 inches, it will definitely feel more like
summer.  Surface based CAPES too climb toward 2000 J/KG /even higher
with slight modifications of the soundings/ with surface lifted
index values to at or below -5c.  So plenty of instability around
but aforementioned shear parameters are generally 15kts or less. For
now, we will leave the chance-scattered PoPs in the grids.  Later
into the holiday weekend will be the position of the backdoor front
as the GFS is the most aggressive with taking this front well west
of the region with the ECMWF/GGEM remaining somewhat stationary
across eastern NY.  If the later scenario were to verify, the
potential for not only additional convection but heavy rainfall
would be another concern.  For now, we will leave in the chance-
scattered PoPs along with partly cloudy-mostly cloudy conditions.

For Memorial Day, confidence is rather low as we monitor the
potential tropical entity along the east coast.  Please refer to the
latest tropical outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to impact the Hudson River Valley and points east
which is mainly where our TAFs are located. Included a VCSH or a
TEMPO group for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the evening hours.

The question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All
terminals will clear out overnight. Winds will be light but
dewpoints upstream are about 10-15 degrees cooler than those
observed across eastern NY and western NE. At this time, the best
IFR chances for FG are at KPSF/KGFL where showers and trapped
moisture near the inversion. Have also included IFR conditions at
KGFL in BR. At KALB and KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.

After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will briefly build into our region through early
Wednesday. A weak front will bring some showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of the Capital region Wednesday afternoon. After
that, a large Bermuda high will take hold of our weather with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into the weekend.

RH values at night tonight and tomorrow night should be in the 70
to 100 percent range. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon are
expected to be 30 to 40 percent in southern areas and 40 to 55
percent in northern areas. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon
should be 40 to 55 percent.

The surface wind will be light and variable tonight...generally
5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph...with a
few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Winds trend to
near calm Wednesday night and then become south at 15 mph or less
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. At this time additional
rainfall amounts of up to a tenth of an inch in most areas...with
some isolated quarter inch amounts in any thunderstorms in the mid
Hudson Valley...Berkshires and NW CT. We do not expect this
rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and
reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
00000D48
 Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

www.weather.gov/albany

000
FXUS61 KBTV 250009
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
809 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end this evening
as upper low pressure slowly pulls away to the north and east. A
weak cold front will push into the region by Wednesday afternoon
with a renewed threat of showers and storms, especially across
northern counties.  Behind this system, building warmth and humidity
will bring the first summerlike conditions to the region for the
remainder of the work week and into the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 721 PM EDT Tuesday...minor update to shrink areal coverage
of rain showers with embedded rumbles of thunder based on radar
trends. latest data shows line of showers extending from near 1v4
to marshfield to near rutland with some lightning activity noted
near marshfield. thinking the threat for convection will continue
for another hour or two...but once the sunsets...stability will
increase from the loss of surface heating and showers will
dissipate. still anticipating some areas of patchy
fog...especially in areas that received rainfall today across
central/eastern vt. otherwise...a pleasant evening is expected
across the champlain valley and northern ny with temps slowly
falling back into the 50s and 60s by midnight.

Upper level low pressure continues to pivot while lifting slowly
northeast along the New England coast this afternoon. Backside
deformation combined with spoke of deeper moisture and boundary
layer convergence/weak instability will promote scattered
showers/isolated storms through early evening across our central
and eastern VT counties, with dry weather expected across northern
NY. By later this evening/tonight any lingering clouds east will
generally dissipate as the low pressure pulls further east,
leaving a mainly clear night across the area from roughly midnight
onward. Given wet ground from today`s rainfall, favorable
hydrolapse profiles and light boundary layer winds patchy mist/fog
will also be likely across our southern and southeastern VT
counties. Low temperatures a blend of available MOS and bias-
corrected data offering values generally in the 40s to lower 50s.

On Wednesday short range models remain consistent in showing a weak
surface trough pushing into the region by the afternoon hours. Some
rather distinct differences among latest MET/MAV MOS output
regarding rain chances with this feature.  However as steep low
level lapse rates interact with a slight increase in boundary layer
moisture and nominal instability we should see scattered showers and
a few storms develop across southern QE/ON and progress into our
northern and central counties by mid to late afternoon.  No severe
weather is expected, but enough 0-6 km shear combined with the
deeply mixed boundary layer and passage of a northern stream H5
vorticity center to allow for a few storms to produce brief gusty
winds and perhaps some small hail.  Highest confidence on this
occurring would be from the Adirondacks north and east
0000392B
 across the
northern half of VT in the 3-9 pm time frame.  Latest blended 925 mb
thermal progs support seasonally warm temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, perhaps a few mid-80s across the Champlain
Valley into southern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday evening will see some
lingering showers as an upper level shortwave continues to affect
the North Country. Showers will exit south and east as the
shortwave shifts into the Gulf of Maine. Drying trend for the rest
of Wednesday night with mild temperaturesin the mid 40s to mid
50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region. On Thursday, 925mb
temperatures increase to the upper teens to near 20C. Southerly
flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will accompany
maximum temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will be interupted by a
weakening upper level shortwave moving from west to east Thursday
night. This will result in increasing clouds with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. The mid-upper level pattern transitions
to keep the North Country in the periphery of ridging which looks
to allow a chance of convective showers and thunderstorms every
day through the weekend.

There is the potential for a cold front to move through the region
over the weekend, which could lead to a break in precip and slightly
cooler temperatures. Overall, much uncertainty exists in the long
term due to more zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to be
above normal throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. clearing
skies and light winds across central/eastern and southern vt that
witnessed rain showers this afternoon have the best chance for
mvfr/ifr and possibly lifr in radiational fog between 07-13z wed
which for taf sites means kmpv and to lesser extent krut as
climatologial se wind at 5-7 kts may prevent lifr/ifr. After 12Z
Wednesday, VFR continues with mainly clear skies through 18z.
There will be an increasing threat of showers and a few storms
after 18Z.

Outlook 00Z Thursday through Sunday...

00Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms, especially on

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 241921
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end this evening
as upper low pressure slowly pulls away to the north and east. A
weak cold front will push into the region by Wednesday afternoon
with a renewed threat of showers and storms, especially across
northern counties.  Behind this system, building warmth and humidity
will bring the first summerlike conditions to the region for the
remainder of the work week and into the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Upper level low pressure continues to
pivot while lifting slowly northeast along the New England coast
this afternoon. Backside deformation combined with spoke of deeper
moisture and boundary layer convergence/weak instability will
promote scattered showers/isolated storms through early evening
across our central and eastern VT counties, with dry weather
expected across northern NY. By later this evening/tonight any
lingering clouds east will generally dissipate as the low pressure
pulls further east, leaving a mainly clear night across the area
from roughly midnight onward. Given wet ground from today`s
rainfall, favorable hydrolapse profiles and light boundary layer
winds patchy mist/fog will also be likely across our southern and
southeastern VT counties. Low temperatures a blend of available
MOS and bias-corrected data offering values generally in the 40s
to lower 50s.

On Wednesday short range models remain consistent in showing a weak
surface trough pushing into the region by the afternoon hours. Some
rather distinct differences among latest MET/MAV MOS output
regarding rain chances with this feature.  However as steep low
level lapse rates interact with a slight increase in boundary layer
moisture and nominal instability we should see scattered showers and
a few storms develop across southern QE/ON and progress into our
northern and central counties by mid to late afternoon.  No severe
weather is expected, but enough 0-6 km shear combined with the
deeply mixed boundary layer and passage of a northern stream H5
vorticity center to allow for a few storms to produce brief gusty
winds and perhaps some small hail.  Highest confidence on this
occurring would be from the Adirondacks north and east across the
northern half of VT in the 3-9 pm time frame.  Latest blended 925 mb
thermal progs support seasonally warm temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, perhaps a few mid-80s across the Champlain
Valley into southern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday evening will see some
lingering showers as an upper level shortwave continues to affect
the North Country. Showers will exit south and east as the
shortwave shifts into the Gulf of Maine. Drying trend for the rest
of Wednesday night with mild temperaturesin the mid 40s to mid
50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region. On Thursday, 925mb
temperatures increase to the upper teens to near 20C. Southerly
flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will accompany
maximum temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will be interupted by a
weakening upper level shortwave moving from west to east Thursday
night. This will result in increasing clouds with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. The mid-upper level pattern transitions
to keep the North Country in the periphery of ridging which looks
to allow a chance of convective showers and thunderstorms every
day through the weekend.

There is the potential for a cold front to move through the region
over the weekend, which could lead to a break in precip and slightly
cooler temperatures. Overall, much uncertainty exists in the long
term due to more zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to be
above normal throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the period. SCT/BKN mid
level clouds and spotty showers/isolated thunder possible at
KRUT/KMPV terminals through 00Z, otherwise dry weather is expected
with light and variable terrain-driven/lake breezes less than 10
kts expected. After 00Z VFR continues with light winds. Increasing
confidence of patchy IFR/LIFR in BR/FG at KMPV/KRUT in the 06-12Z
time frame owing to wet ground from today`s rainfall adding low
level moisture to the surface layer. After 12Z Wednesday, VFR
continues with mainly clear skies. There will be an increasing
threat of showers and a few storms after 18Z, but this is beyond
the forecast at this point.

Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...

18Z Wed through 02Z Thu...VFR with scattered showers/storms,
mainly at northern terminals. Any heavier shower/storm may produce
brief IFR/MVFR visibilities and enhanced turbulence.

02Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms, especially on

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 241747
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southeast Long Island will bring scattered to
numerous showers across our region from the Capital District south
and east today with perhaps a rumble of afternoon thunder. Clouds
will keep temperatures a little less warm than yesterday. This
storm will move to our east tonight and high pressure will briefly
build in through early Wednesday. A weak front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Capital region
Wednesday afternoon. After that, a large Bermuda high will take
hold of our weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 134 PM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located just
southeast of the region off the coast of southern New England to
the east of Long Island. Moisture wrapping around this feature
continues to allow for some showers. The bulk of these have been
occurring over southern Vermont and into adjacent Washington and
Rensselaer Counties New York. Some parts of southern Vermont have
seen locally around an inch of rainfall according to the latest
MRMS precip estimation.

Temps continue to vary from northwest to southeast across the area
this afternoon. Thanks to partly to mostly sunny skies, some
parts of the central/western Adirondacks have already reached into
the mid 70s, while southern and eastern areas seeing lots of
clouds remain only in the low 60s. Temps look to be fairly steady
for the afternoon hours, with the warmest readings in northwest
parts of the area. Most places from Albany on south/east won`t see
much sun for the remainder of the day.

The latest 16z 3km HRRR suggests that the threat for showers will
remain in the forecast for this afternoon, mainly for areas east
of the Hudson River. There might be enough instability with colder
temperatures aloft for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon,
although most areas won`t see any thunder. Will continue with just
a slight chance of thunder for much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low is forecast to drift east of Cape Cod tonight taking
all the showers with it. Weak high pressure will build tonight
into early Wednesday with a return to sunshine and higher
temperatures back to 80-85 in the valleys, mid to upper 70s over
the higher elevations.

By afternoon, a weak back door front looks to slip southward into
the Adirondacks touching off some scattered showers and possibly
thunderstorms. One or two cells could make it south into the Capital
region and even northern Catskills.

A west to southwest wind 5-15 mph will become northwesterly during
the afternoon.

The front looks to washout by Wednesday night over the region as it
slides to our south. Wednesday night looks dry with perhaps a
little patchy fog as the wind will become light or calm overnight.

Thursday will start out dry, but with increasing moisture, and
perhaps a weak short wave, some scattered showers or thunderstorms
could develop by afternoon across the region. These will be hit and
miss with many areas likely not getting any rain at all.

Otherwise, temperatures will climb in the mid or upper 80s in the
valleys, 75-80 higher terrain. Dewpoints will reach the lower 60s in
the Hudson valley south of Albany, mid or upper 50s further north so
it will feel a little uncomfortably warm to some.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast features above normal temperatures for the
holiday weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day.

Friday-Friday night...the warm front finally moves through eastern
NY and western New England during this time frame. A warm and humid
air mass settles in...as dewpoints rise into the 60s.  The boundary
will likely be in the vicinity of the forecast area...and a weak
short-wave in the west to southwest flow aloft will likely focus
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The latest GFS20
has modest SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but the amount of
deep shear remains uncertain. It is hard to ascertain if the
convection will be severe this far out.  H850 temps rise to +14C to
+16C with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the valley
locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the mountains.  The
showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly with the boundary
retreating northward and the daytime heating gone.  Lows will be
upper 50s to lower 60s over most of the forecast area.

Saturday-Saturday Night...The subtropical high builds in from the
western Atlantic.  The ALY forecast get into a warm sector.  H850
temps nudge up to +15C to +17C on the latest ECMWF. PWATs increase
to 1-1.5 inches.  The GFS model soundings do not look very capped.
Pop-up diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
capable of heavy rainfall.  The big question is the timing of the
backdoor cold front from Northern New England and southeast Canada.
The guidance varies on the timing and placement of the boundary. Our
forecast reflects a timing more Saturday night into Sunday.  Highs
will be steamy for late May with humidity levels on the increase.
Highs will be mainly in the mid and upper 80s for elevations at 1000
ft or lower...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mountains.  A
slight to low chc of showers and thunderstorms will likely linger
most of the night as the backdoor cold front dips south/southwest
across the region.

Sunday into Memorial Day...Temps look a bit cooler...closer to
normal for late May on Sunday...as the backdoor cold front stalls
over central NY...eastern PA and northern NJ.  The ECMWF has H850
temps fall back to +10C to +12C from east to west over the forecast
area...as the cold front moves through...and high pressure builds in
from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.  There will continue to be solid
chances of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front looks to move
through.  The amount of instability available will be the main issue
for any strong to severe thunderstorms as the shear increases.  This
will continue to be monitored over the next several days.  Highs on
Sunday fall back into the mid 70s to lower 80s.  Lows Sunday night
fall back into the 50s to lower 60s.  Memorial Day will feature a
threat of a shower or thunderstorm...but it is uncertain where the
frontal boundary goes. The latest WPC guidance has it move north
into southern Quebec and Northern New England again. When a boundary
is in the area with light to moderate amounts of instability and
appreciable moisture...then a slight to low chc of showers and
thunderstorms...especially in the afternoon will persist through the
holiday weekend.  Overall...it does not look like a washout at this
point. After lows Sunday night in the 50s...highs will likely be in
the 7
00002FBE
0s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still some spokes of precipitation rotating around the low
pressure system to our east. Have VCSH at all terminals for the
afternoon. Not out of the question that a terminal could drop to
MVFR conditions in a shower...or perhaps IFR...but chances are
slight. Slight chances for TSRA this afternoon as well...but not
sufficient to warrant mention in TAFs. So will maintain VFR at
all terminals this afternoon.

Question for tonight will be how much BR/FG form. All terminals
will clear out tonight. Winds will be light. Best chances for FG
are at KPSF where showers deposited around 0.2 inch of rain today.
Have also included IFR conditions at KGFL in BR. At KALB and
KPOU...MVFR in BR forecast.

After BR/FG clears /by 12Z-13Z/ VFR conditions will prevail all
terminals for Wednesday through 18z.

Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH levels should remain elevated today dropping not low than about
50 percent most places. There will be scattered to numerous showers
mainly from the Capital region south and eastward. Most areas will
likely not receive a quarter inch, except perhaps Litchfield county
into the Mid Hudson valley and southern Catskills.

The showers will move out tonight leaving us with a nearly fully
recovery and likely the formation of dew as the wind will be light.

Wednesday, will start out dry and sunny. A weak disturbance could
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the
Capital region but a few could stray further south.

A full recovery tonight as the showers move out followed by warm
increasingly humid weather for the balance of the week.

Low pressure tracking close to southern New England will
scattered to numerous showers from the Capital region and perhaps
an afternoon thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region
south and east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid
Atlantic states and summer like weather will spread across our
region from the southwest through the end of next week.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at 10 to
15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms today. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an inch
in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall to
produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/HWJIV/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 241726
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system just off the mid-Atlantic coast
will move northeast today and reach eastern Maine tonight. This
will bring clouds to the area along with the threat of showers
across Vermont and parts of the northern Adirondacks. Dry weather
is expected Wednesday morning...but then an upper level
disturbance will move across the area Wednesday afternoon and
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the North Country.
Above normal temperatures are expected today and Wednesday with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 953 AM EDT Tuesday...Minor updates to winds/pops based off
current radar/observational trends, otherwise current forecast on
track. Steadier area of showers pivoting across southern VT will
tend to morph into a broader area of scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms across our VT counties later this afternoon/early
evening. High temperatures appear right on track per latest
modelled 925 mb thermal progs. Have a great day.

Prior discussion from 653 AM EDT Tuesday...
Overall forecast in good shape with just some minor cloud tweaks.
Otherwise...we will see a gradual increase in clouds across most
of the area today as an upper level low pressure system off the
mid-Atlantic coast moves slowly northeast. There will be a sharp
gradient of precipitation with this system across our area because
of the track of the system. Looking at most of northern New York
remaining dry today with a chance of showers across Essex County
New York and most of Vermont. There could even be an isolated
thunderstorm...mainly over southern and eastern Vermont. High
temperatures today will be in the mid 70s east to lower 80s west.

Upper level low continues to move northeast tonight and reach
eastern Main by Wednesday morning. Still looking at some lingering
showers over eastern Vermont tonight...but eventual dry conditions
develop over the entire area later tonight through Wednesday
morning. Eventually a shortwave trough moves across eastern Canada
and the Northeast Wednesday afternoon. This will increase dynamic
support over the area and bring a cold front into the region late
Wednesday afternoon. Instability should also increase ahead of the
front with highs getting into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dew points
will also be increasing...but feel model forecasts are doing their
usual overforecast of dew points which in turns creates more
instability. Feel CAPE values will be closer to 500 J/kg versus
the model forecasts of 1000 J/kg. This should be sufficient to
enhance the potential for convection and during this time of
maximum instability...deep layer shear is increasing. Neither the
instability or shear are strong...but enough to increase the
potential for thunderstorms and have included in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 435 AM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night and Thursday will
mainly be dry with an upper level ridge building over the North
country. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than seasonal
normals with warmer air reaching the area under aforementioned
ridge. 850 temps warm from around 11 C up to 15 C by Thursday
afternoon. There may be a few lingering showers during the first
half of Wednesday night across our Eastern zones as surface trof
and upper level short wave that brought some showers to the area
Wednesday afternoon both lift northeastward and away from the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 435 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night through
Tuesday...extended portion of the forecast will generally feature
a surface front situated somewhere very close to our area or even
right across our area. Location of this front will play a big
roll in our temperatures and chances for showers or convection.
Pattern will be fairly active due to this feature and have
mentioned several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the period as stationary/warm front
lifts north across our forecast area. Think that we will see
upper 80s in the warmer larger valleys of our forecast area but
even found some model guidance that pushes 90. Saturday and
Sunday front will remain very close to our area and depending
which side of the front we end up on will determine how warm we
are. Unfortunately the forecast gets lower confidence the further
out we get with not a lot of model agreement and boundary causing
big bust potential. Due to warm temps will see some surface
instability...especially Friday...bring chance for some boomers
to the region. Also have chance for convection mentioned
Saturday...then a cooler pattern will begin heading into early
next week and chance for convection wanes as we finally end up on
cooler side of aforementioned surface front/boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the period. SCT/BKN mid
level clouds and spotty showers/isolated thunder possible at
KRUT/KMPV terminals through 00Z, otherwise dry weather is expected
with light and variable terrain-driven/lake breezes less than 10
kts expected. After 00Z VFR continues with light winds. Increasing
confidence of patchy IFR/LIFR in BR/FG at KMPV/KRUT in the 06-12Z
time frame owing to wet ground from today`s rainfall adding low
level moisture to the surface layer. After 12Z Wednesday, VFR
continues with mainly clear skies. There will be an increasing
threat of showers and a few storms after 18Z, but this is beyond
the forecast at this point.

Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...

18Z Wed through 02Z Thu...VFR with scattered showers/storms,
mainly at northern terminals. Any heavier shower/storm may produce
brief IFR/MVFR visibilities and enhanced turbulence.

02Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms, especially on

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG

      
      

  
    
  
  
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