YOUR WEATHER  


Customize
Your Weather
   (Set Options)
 
Select US/Int'l City
U.S. State/City List
Canadian Weather
International Weather


Enter "City, State", ZIP Code or ICAO:  Customize | NOAA Streaming Audio
Now/Forecast Hourly Forecast Warnings/Watches Special Radars Tropics/Satellite
VT Summary VT Climate Data VT Discussion VT Forecast VT Public Info VT Fire Weather
Vermont State Discussion:
Use Ctrl+F to search for specific keywords

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230618
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
218 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND
WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS
COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER
HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/
MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX
DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR
TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 230526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS SHOWING ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A GUSTY WEST WIND HAS ALREADY ENSUED AT ALBANY AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ALBANY WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE NEARS...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN SOME
SPOTS...NAMELY THE CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS REMAINDER REGIONS UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS SCATTERED AS WE WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF. CEILINGS
WILL DIP INTO PERIODS OF MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.  THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES FROM WEST OR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY OF 25 TO 35 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO
SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS SHOWING ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A GUSTY WEST WIND HAS ALREADY ENSUED AT ALBANY AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ALBANY WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE NEARS...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN SOME
SPOTS...NAMELY THE CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS REMAINDER REGIONS UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF 
000031BE
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX. THURSDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230455
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND
WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS
COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER
HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/
MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX
DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR
TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF
SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230235
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN AIRMASS...HAS
JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND WHICH LIES THE
COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING
LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH
FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS COOLS...LOOK FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GOING FORECAST HAS
IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE RESULT
WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA

00004000
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 230204
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING THROUGH THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ADJUSTING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE
NEAR TERM...AND THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE.
SOME OTHER VERY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV AFD DESCRIBES FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND IS BELOW...

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUHG THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 222329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. INITIAL COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE
IN AIRMASS...EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS VERMONT...WHILE
SECONDARY FRONT BEHIND WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR IS STILL BACK IN
THE OTTAWA VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL FORECAST...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DID
ADD THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR
EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON SOME ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE IT MAKES IT MUCH FURTHER EAST.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...BUT NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT MINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLDY SKIES AND -RW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTNOON AS COLD
FRONT MVS THRU THE AREA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PASSING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MDL TRACK WILL CONTINUE HAVING
THIS SYSTEM MVG EAST OF REGION THRU THE OVERNGT HRS. WITH THIS
TRACK...CWA WILL SEE TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR CAA TO WORK INTO THE AREA AS THE
EVENING/OVERNGT HRS PROGRESS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND FLOW...PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO BECM MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE W/ FOCUS OVER HIR
TRRN. COLDER AIR WILL CHANGEOVER PRECIP TO LIGHT -SW OVER HIR TRRN
WITH LIGHT ACCUM TOWARDS WED MORNING. OVERNGT TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE L40S
00000540
 IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE 30S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY 
00004000
DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 222323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LARGER AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST BUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE WEST COULD STILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV AFD DESCRIBES FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND IS BELOW...

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUHG THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 222312
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLDY SKIES AND -RW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTNOON AS COLD FRONT MVS THRU THE AREA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MDL TRACK
WILL CONTINUE HAVING THIS SYSTEM MVG EAST OF REGION THRU THE
OVERNGT HRS. WITH THIS TRACK...CWA WILL SEE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR CAA TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE EVENING/OVERNGT HRS PROGRESS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND
FLOW...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO BECM MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE W/
FOCUS OVER HIR TRRN. COLDER AIR WILL CHANGEOVER PRECIP TO LIGHT
-SW OVER HIR TRRN WITH LIGHT ACCUM TOWARDS WED MORNING. OVERNGT
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE L40S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE 30S IN
HIR TRRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERT
00004000
AINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 222112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
NYS...ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. A BAND
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS
FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WET BULB COOLING HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO FALL BACK THROUGH
THE 60S...AND INTO THE 50S WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.

WE EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE SWEEPING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 9
PM. IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 530 PM...INTO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL REGION...AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
BETWEEN 530 PM AND 7 PM...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT...WESTERN MA...THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM. THERE
HAVE BEEN NO LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED UPSTREAM...AND GIVEN VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS
EVENING.

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY
23/01Z-02Z...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A STRATO-CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET IS FORECAST FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 18 KTS. AFTER THE FRONT
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 222007
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLDY SKIES AND -RW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTNOON AS COLD FRONT MVS THRU THE AREA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MDL TRACK
WILL CONTINUE HAVING THIS SYSTEM MVG EAST OF REGION THRU THE
OVERNGT HRS. WITH THIS TRACK...CWA WILL SEE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR CAA TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE EVENING/OVERNGT HRS PROGRESS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND
FLOW...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO BECM MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE W/
FOCUS OVER HIR TRRN. COLDER AIR WILL CHANGEOVER PRECIP TO LIGHT
-SW OVER HIR TRRN WITH LIGHT ACCUM TOWARDS WED MORNING. OVERNGT
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE L40S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE 30S IN
HIR TRRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO
00004000
 AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS
THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE
CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS
BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT
TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY
20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS
DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 222001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER
THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM
THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N
NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS
FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST
LOOK GD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS
THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE
CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS
BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT
TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY
20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS
DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 221759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT...SHOWERS STILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY REAL SOLID RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE
ECHOES FARTHER EAST HAVE ERODES DUE TO DRY WEDGE IN LOW LEVELS. COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND ADVANCING EASTWARD. AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS
SHOULD START REACHING THE GROUND TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. DELAYED TIMING OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO RAISED TEMPS IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY THICKENED.

HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING A POSSIBLE LINE OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LIKELY TIED TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DUE TO
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING DUE TO WET
BULB EFFECTS ALREADY TAKING PLACE FARTHER WEST WHERE SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL...ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING EXPECTED FARTHER EAST LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY
23/01Z-02Z...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A STRATO-CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET IS FORECAST FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 18 KTS. AFTER THE FRONT
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED AFTN AND NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. S
00004000
CATTERED SHRA.
BREEZY.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 221749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT...SHOWERS STILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY REAL SOLID RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE
ECHOES FARTHER EAST HAVE ERODES DUE TO DRY WEDGE IN LOW LEVELS. COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND ADVANCING EASTWARD. AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS
SHOULD START REACHING THE GROUND TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. DELAYED TIMING OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO RAISED TEMPS IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY THICKENED.

HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING A POSSIBLE LINE OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LIKELY TIED TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DUE TO
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING DUE TO WET
BULB EFFECTS ALREADY TAKING PLACE FARTHER WEST WHERE SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL...ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING EXPECTED FARTHER EAST LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER
THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM
THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N
NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS
FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST
LOOK GD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS
THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE
CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS
BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT
TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY
20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS
DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHO
00004000
WERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER
THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM
THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N
NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS
FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST
LOOK GD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING
EWD THROUGH THE REGION AND TRIGGERING -SHRA/RA AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES...PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. UPSTREAMS OBS
SHOW THAT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT TO END THE TAF PERIOD IN MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BCM GUSTY BY MID-LATE
MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING THE EVENING HRS...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATED TO FORECAST ISSUED TO ACCT FOR
PRECIP/FROPA TIMING OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY...MCLDY/CLDY SKIES
OVER THE REGION WITH SCT --RW OUT AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP BAND WITH
FRONT. TIMING FOR FRONTAL PRECIP NOT CHANGED...BUT HAVE SHIFTED SL
CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THRU REST OF MORNING HRS. CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDER IN FORECAST ATTM. WK INSTABILITY OVER
AREA...BETTER CHANCES SOUTH AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AT NEXT UPDATE
TIME. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF
ANYTHING IS FALLING FROM THIS IT WOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MATCH PRESENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND
BACK OFF ON TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MID
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS COLD FRONT TRAILS TO SSW.
FRONT WILL ENTER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER NOON...COINCIDING WITH MAX
HEATING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. ADDED SLGT
CHC OF THUNDER TO FORECAST FROM ABOUT 18Z-23Z.

TEMPS...WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. 52 DEG AT 4AM AT KBTV...SO
MAXES DON`T HAVE TO RISE VERY FAR TO HIT THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING
EWD THROUGH THE REGION AND TRIGGERING -SHRA/RA AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES...PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. UPSTREAMS OBS
SHOW THAT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT TO END THE TAF PERIOD IN MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BCM GUSTY BY MID-LATE
MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING THE EVENING HRS...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 221341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...THE KENX 88-D RADAR CONTINUES TO PICK UP RETURNS
OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE AND WERE NOT CHANGED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE AIR HAS BEEN SATURATING AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE 20S TO
30S REGION WIDE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLA
00004000
CES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF
ANYTHING IS FALLING FROM THIS IT WOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MATCH PRESENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND
BACK OFF ON TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MID
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS COLD FRONT TRAILS TO SSW.
FRONT WILL ENTER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER NOON...COINCIDING WITH MAX
HEATING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. ADDED SLGT
CHC OF THUNDER TO FORECAST FROM ABOUT 18Z-23Z.

TEMPS...WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. 52 DEG AT 4AM AT KBTV...SO
MAXES DON`T HAVE TO RISE VERY FAR TO HIT THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING
EWD THROUGH THE REGION AND TRIGGERING -SHRA/RA AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES...PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. UPSTREAMS OBS
SHOW THAT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT TO END THE TAF PERIOD IN MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BCM GUSTY BY MID-LATE
MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING THE EVENING HRS...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF
ANYTHING IS FALLING FROM THIS IT WOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MATCH PRESENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND
BACK OFF ON TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MID
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS COLD FRONT TRAILS TO SSW.
FRONT WILL ENTER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER NOON...COINCIDING WITH MAX
HEATING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. ADDED SLGT
CHC OF THUNDER TO FORECAST FROM ABOUT 18Z-23Z.

TEMPS...WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. 52 DEG AT 4AM AT KBTV...SO
MAXES DON`T HAVE TO RISE VERY FAR TO HIT THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME SHRA
TO KMSS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT KBTV/KPBG AND
-SHRA AT KMSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THRU MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE REGION...TRIGGERING
-SHRA/RA AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIME...PRODUCING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE KEEPING -SHRA AND LVL MVFR CIGS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING
THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY NGT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...THE KENX 88-D RADAR WAS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS
WORKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY. MIGHT JUST BE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...OR
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. UPSTREAM OBS REMAIN DRY UNTIL ONE GOES BACK
TOWARD ROCHESTER NY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED AROUND 50 TO 55 IN THE HUDSON V
00004000
ALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH. (NOTE GLENS FALLS FOR A CHANGE WAS ONE OF THE MILDEST
PLACES AT 56!) OTHER PLACES WERE IN THE 45-50 RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE AIR HAS BEEN SATURATING AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE 20S TO
30S REGION WIDE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...THE KENX 88-D RADAR WAS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS
WORKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY. MIGHT JUST BE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...OR
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. UPSTREAM OBS REMAIN DRY UNTIL ONE GOES BACK
TOWARD ROCHESTER NY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED AROUND 50 TO 55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH. (NOTE GLENS FALLS FOR A CHANGE WAS ONE OF THE MILDEST
PLACES AT 56!) OTHER PLACES WERE IN THE 45-50 RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE AIR HAS BEEN SATURATING AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE 20S TO
30S REGION WIDE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
W
00004000
EDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF
ANYTHING IS FALLING FROM THIS IT WOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MID
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS COLD FRONT TRAILS TO SSW.
FRONT WILL ENTER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER NOON...COINCIDING WITH MAX
HEATING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. ADDED SLGT
CHC OF THUNDER TO FORECAST FROM ABOUT 18Z-23Z.

TEMPS...WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. 52 DEG AT 4AM AT KBTV...SO
MAXES DON`T HAVE TO RISE VERY FAR TO HIT THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME SHRA
TO KMSS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT KBTV/KPBG AND
-SHRA AT KMSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THRU MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE REGION...TRIGGERING
-SHRA/RA AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIME...PRODUCING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE KEEPING -SHRA AND LVL MVFR CIGS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING
THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY NGT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 220831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATING A FEW MORE POSSIBLE SPRINKLES
OVER EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
GRADUALLY THICKENING CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST CASES...STILL IN THE 50S AT
THE HOUR! SOME AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE 40S DUE TO A MORE MARINE AIRMASS.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY A FEW MORE DEGREES. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY (OTHER THAN A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS). TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...45 TO AROUND 50 CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND EVEN POINTS NORTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS MIDDAY...AND
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AIR HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY DRY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD
WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. FURTHER SOUTH
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE 40S AND EVEN NEAR 50. THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE AIR WILL SHIPPED IN THIS MORNING...SENDING PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD
FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM MODELS
INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION IS
REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL DISCOUNT
THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDAC
0000053E
KS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

00004000

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS ON FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220701
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT TUESDAY...RADAR TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME SHRA
TO KMSS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT KBTV/KPBG AND
-SHRA AT KMSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THRU MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE REGION...TRIGGERING
-SHRA/RA AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIME...PRODUCING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE KEEPING -SHRA AND LVL MVFR CIGS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING
THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY NGT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220549
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT TUESDAY...RADAR TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME SHRA
TO KMSS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT KBTV/KPBG AND
-SHRA AT KMSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THRU MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE REGION...TRIGGERING
-SHRA/RA AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIME...PRODUCING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE KEEPING -SHRA AND LVL MVFR CIGS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING
THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY NGT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 220536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSUR
00004000
E SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...FOR THIS UPDATE NEEDED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE SEVERAL DEGREES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY NOT
FALLEN MUCH AT ALL. THIS WAS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS REMAINDER VERY LOW.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES) HAVE SKIMMED OUR NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THESE WERE MOVING
AWAY...AND THERE WERE NO MORE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.

TRIMMED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREDIBLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND THE FACT THAT LATEST RUC INDICATED NO SHOWERS
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
FALL...HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LOCALLY AROUND 50 AT ALBANY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY OVERNT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 220525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...FOR THIS UPDATE NEEDED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE SEVERAL DEGREES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY NOT
FALLEN MUCH AT ALL. THIS WAS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS REMAINDER VERY LOW.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES) HAVE SKIMMED OUR NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THESE WERE MOVING
AWAY...AND THERE WERE NO MORE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.

TRIMMED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREDIBLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND THE FACT THAT LATEST RUC INDICATED NO SHOWERS
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
FALL...HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LOCALLY AROUND 50 AT ALBANY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220519
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT TUESDAY...RADARA TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OV
00004000
ER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG
FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH PREVAILING -RA AT MSS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT BUT INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES KMSS BY 15Z
TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR VISIBILTY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH DAY BRINGING WITH IT A LINE OF MODERATE RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND +RA RIGHT ALONG THE
LINE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILTY
AND CEILINGS AS THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAYY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z WEDS. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/NF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1016 PM EDT MONDAY...PRVS CHGS TO FCST APPEAR TO BE ON THE
RIGHT TREND THUS NO CHGS NEEDED THIS PKG.

700 PM EDT DISCUSSION...RDR TRENDS AND FINER RESOLUTION MDLS SHOWING SCT -SHRA
ACTVTY WILL TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF CNDN BDR CTYS IN NRN NY AND TO
SOME EXTENT IN VT AS WELL OVERNGT. THEREFORE... HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR ERLR/HIER POPS IN NY AND HAVE RAISED MIN T FCSTS
AS WELL.

421 PM EDT DISCUSSION...GREAT DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DESPITE
LINGERING CLD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. TEMPS
THIS AFTNOON RANGING IN THE 60S UP THRU THE LOW 70S...ALL RELATED
TO CLD CONDITIONS. SCT -RW ACROSS THE N NY ZONES ATTM...BUT WITH
AREA BEING SO DRY WITH RH READINGS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE...SPOTS
JUST SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES WITH TRACE ACCUM AT BEST. THESE SHOULD
PUSH THRU/DRY UP OVER NEXT COUPLE HRS ALLOWING FOR MINOR REPRIEVE
BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES. STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
ARRIVAL OF MAIN AREA OF RAIN WHICH BEGINS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. WITH
AIRMASS ALREADY DRY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH QPF UP TO 0.10" AT BEST. HIGHEST AMTS WILL BE IN
THE ST LAW VALLEY AND CLOSE TO 12Z TUESDAY WHEN SFC LOW
APPROACHES. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F
IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG
FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH PREVAILING -RA AT MSS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT BUT INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES KMSS BY 15Z
TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR VISIBILTY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH DAY BRINGING WITH IT A LINE OF MODERATE RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND +RA RIGHT ALONG THE
LINE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILTY
AND CEILINGS AS THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAYY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z WEDS. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/NF

000
FXUS61 KALY 220153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL TO THE
NORTH MOVING MAINLY EAST...SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AT LOW LEVELS BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH AND CURRENT
FORECASTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY ARE IN THE
BALL PARK. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OV
00004000
ERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 220152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL TO THE
NORTH MOVING MAINLY EAST...SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AT LOW LEVELS BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO MUCH AND CURRENT
FORECASTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY ARE IN THE
BALL PARK. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220010 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
810 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 801 PM EDT MONDAY...RDR TRENDS AND FINER RESOLUTION MDLS
SHOWING SCT -SHRA ACTVTY WILL TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF CNDN BDR CTYS
IN NRN NY AND TO SOME EXTENT IN VT AS WELL OVERNGT. THEREFORE...
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR ERLR/HIER POPS IN NY AND HAVE RAISED MIN
T FCSTS AS WELL.

421 PM EDT DISCUSSION...GREAT DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DESPITE
LINGERING CLD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. TEMPS
THIS AFTNOON RANGING IN THE 60S UP THRU THE LOW 70S...ALL RELATED
TO CLD CONDITIONS. SCT -RW ACROSS THE N NY ZONES ATTM...BUT WITH
AREA BEING SO DRY WITH RH READINGS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE...SPOTS
JUST SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES WITH TRACE ACCUM AT BEST. THESE SHOULD
PUSH THRU/DRY UP OVER NEXT COUPLE HRS ALLOWING FOR MINOR REPRIEVE
BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES. STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
ARRIVAL OF MAIN AREA OF RAIN WHICH BEGINS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. WITH
AIRMASS ALREADY DRY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH QPF UP TO 0.10" AT BEST. HIGHEST AMTS WILL BE IN
THE ST LAW VALLEY AND CLOSE TO 12Z TUESDAY WHEN SFC LOW
APPROACHES. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F
IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG
FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH PREVAILING -RA AT MSS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT BUT INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES KMSS BY 15Z
TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR VISIBILTY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH DAY BRINGING WITH IT A LINE OF MODERATE RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND +RA RIGHT ALONG THE
LINE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILTY
AND CEILINGS AS THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAYY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z WEDS. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/NF

000
FXUS61 KALY 212320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISC BELOW...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT SINCE MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...EVEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AS A
SOUTHERLY WINDS K
00004000
EEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 212318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 716 PM EDT MONDAY...RDR TRENDS AND FINER RESOLUTION MDLS
SHOWING SCT -SHRA ACTVTY WILL TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF CNDN BDR CTYS
IN NRN NY AND TO SOME EXTENT IN VT AS WELL OVERNGT. THEREFORE...
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR ERLR/HIER POPS IN NY AND HAVE RAISED MIN
T FCSTS AS WELL.

421 PM EDT DISCUSSION...GREAT DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DESPITE
LINGERING CLD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. TEMPS
THIS AFTNOON RANGING IN THE 60S UP THRU THE LOW 70S...ALL RELATED
TO CLD CONDITIONS. SCT -RW ACROSS THE N NY ZONES ATTM...BUT WITH
AREA BEING SO DRY WITH RH READINGS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE...SPOTS
JUST SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES WITH TRACE ACCUM AT BEST. THESE SHOULD
PUSH THRU/DRY UP OVER NEXT COUPLE HRS ALLOWING FOR MINOR REPRIEVE
BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES. STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
ARRIVAL OF MAIN AREA OF RAIN WHICH BEGINS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. WITH
AIRMASS ALREADY DRY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH QPF UP TO 0.10" AT BEST. HIGHEST AMTS WILL BE IN
THE ST LAW VALLEY AND CLOSE TO 12Z TUESDAY WHEN SFC LOW
APPROACHES. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F
IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR
THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z
TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS
AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC
COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES
AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z
WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 212318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MONIR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISC BELOW...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT SINCE MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...EVEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AS A
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

00004000

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 212040 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT SINCE MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE...EVEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AS A SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
TEMPS FROM FALLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...GJM/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 212021
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...GREAT DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DESPITE
LINGERING CLD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. TEMPS
THIS AFTNOON RANGING IN THE 60S UP THRU THE LOW 70S...ALL RELATED
TO CLD CONDITIONS. SCT -RW ACROSS THE N NY ZONES ATTM...BUT WITH
AREA BEING SO DRY WITH RH READINGS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE...SPOTS
JUST SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES WITH TRACE ACCUM AT BEST. THESE SHOULD
PUSH THRU/DRY UP OVER NEXT COUPLE HRS ALLOWING FOR MINOR REPRIEVE
BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES. STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
ARRIVAL OF MAIN AREA OF RAIN WHICH BEGINS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. WITH
AIRMASS ALREADY DRY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH QPF UP TO 0.10" AT BEST. HIGHEST AMTS WILL BE IN
THE ST LAW VALLEY AND CLOSE TO 12Z TUESDAY WHEN SFC LOW
APPROACHES. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F
IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR
THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z
TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS
AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC
COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES
AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. I
00004000
N
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z
WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED ZONE FORECAST SENT TO REFLECT
CURRENT CLD COVER AND TEMP TRENDS. EXPECTING A FINAL SURGE OF CLDS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
AREA SLOWLY MVG THRU THE ST LAW VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS...W/ SCT
CLDS ELSEWHERE. SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS BUT AFTNOON HRS
PROGRESSING WITH LESS TIME TO JUMP TO REACH THE 70F MARK. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS IN N NY TO BRING IT CLOSE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CVLY. REST OF CWA M/U60S WITH SOME SPOT 70F POSSIBLE...BUT IS
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS BKN/OVC DECK MVG EAST IN N NY
ATTM. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO WINDS...OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN
EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR
THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z
TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS
AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC
COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES
AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z
WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211741 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR TODAY WITH THIS UPDATE.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE
BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILDER THAN SUNDAY. THEY ARE
PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH 60-65 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME EXTRA
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BUT SHOULD NOT
TEMPER THE WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MOST
PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A
PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT
THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FEATURE.

WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME
POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND
70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP
TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD
ACCUMULATE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF
TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER
30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS
NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...
A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY
FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW
DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER
BLOCKY.  TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS.
WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION.  WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE
BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW
PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 211741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR TODAY WITH THIS UPDATE.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE
BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILDER THAN SUNDAY. THEY ARE
PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH 60-65 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME EXTRA
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BUT SHOULD NOT
TEMPER THE WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S 
00004000
IN MOST
PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A
PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT
THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FEATURE.

WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME
POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND
70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP
TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD
ACCUMULATE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF
TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER
30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS
NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...
A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY
FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW
DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER
BLOCKY.  TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS.
WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION.  WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE
BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW
PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED ZONE FORECAST SENT TO REFLECT
CURRENT CLD COVER AND TEMP TRENDS. EXPECTING A FINAL SURGE OF CLDS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
AREA SLOWLY MVG THRU THE ST LAW VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS...W/ SCT
CLDS ELSEWHERE. SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS BUT AFTNOON HRS
PROGRESSING WITH LESS TIME TO JUMP TO REACH THE 70F MARK. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS IN N NY TO BRING IT CLOSE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CVLY. REST OF CWA M/U60S WITH SOME SPOT 70F POSSIBLE...BUT IS
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS BKN/OVC DECK MVG EAST IN N NY
ATTM. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO WINDS...OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN
EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR
THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z
TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS
AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC
COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES
AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z
WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211715
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED ZONE FORECAST SENT TO REFLECT
CURRENT CLD COVER AND TEMP TRENDS. EXPECTING A FINAL SURGE OF CLDS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
AREA SLOWLY MVG THRU THE ST LAW VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS...W/ SCT
CLDS ELSEWHERE. SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS BUT AFTNOON HRS
PROGRESSING WITH LESS TIME TO JUMP TO REACH THE 70F MARK. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS IN N NY TO BRING IT CLOSE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CVLY. REST OF CWA M/U60S WITH SOME SPOT 70F POSSIBLE...BUT IS
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS BKN/OVC DECK MVG EAST IN N NY
ATTM. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO WINDS...OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN
EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND..
00004000
.BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 01Z TONIGHT AT MSS/SLK AND 04Z AT PBG/BTV. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED SO ONLY PUT VCSH IN FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH 10-20 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 211439
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR TODAY WITH THIS UPDATE.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE
BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILDER THAN SUNDAY. THEY ARE
PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH 60-65 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME EXTRA
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BUT SHOULD NOT
TEMPER THE WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MOST
PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A
PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT
THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FEATURE.

WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME
POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND
70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP
TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD
ACCUMULATE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF
TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER
30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS
NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...
A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY
FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW
DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER
BLOCKY.  TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS.
WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION.  WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FEW-SCT HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY.

DURING THE REST OF TODAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN...WITH BKN CIGS OF 12-15 KFT IN PLACE BY THE
AFTN HOURS FOR KALB/KGFL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE BEST MIXING IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE
BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW
PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211424
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR LATEST UPDATE TO
FORECAST IS PERSISTENT CLDS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAVE
REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS AFFECTING
TEMPS AS WELL AS ISOLATED -RW THAT HAVE SHOWN UP. UNTIL THE CLD
COVER BREAKS...HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
CWA-WIDE. HAVE ALSO PUT IN ISOLATED -RW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTNOON HRS. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ONE MORE DRY AND WARM
DAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. IT WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY
THOUGH...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME
REFLECTIVITIES MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA...THOUGH AIRMASS IS MAINLY
TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOSEST OB THAT HAS
HAD RAIN IS OTTAWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN
EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 01Z TONIGHT AT MSS/SLK AND 04Z AT PBG/BTV. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED SO ONLY PUT VCSH IN FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH 10-20 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ONE MORE DRY AND WARM
DAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. IT WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY
THOUGH...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. RADA
00004000
R CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME
REFLECTIVITIES MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA...THOUGH AIRMASS IS MAINLY
TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOSEST OB THAT HAS
HAD RAIN IS OTTAWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN
EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 01Z TONIGHT AT MSS/SLK AND 04Z AT PBG/BTV. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED SO ONLY PUT VCSH IN FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH 10-20 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 211130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED AROUND 40 DEGREES FROM
ALBANY NORTHWARD...WHILE DOWN IN THE 30S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THAT IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST HAD LESS WIND AND
CLOUDS COMPARED TO THOSE AREAS NORTH WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
PERSISTENT BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM RADIATION
AS MUCH.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY A VERY MINOR RETWEAKING OF THE GRIDS.

TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FINE SPRING DAY. THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COMPARED TO SUNDAY...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK
MILDER THAN SUNDAY. THEY ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
60-65 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MOST
PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A
PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT
THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FEATURE.

WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME
POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND
70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP
TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD
ACCUMULATE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF
TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER
30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS
NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...
A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY
FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW
DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER
BLOCKY.  TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS.
WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION.  WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FEW-SCT HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY.

DURING THE REST OF TODAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN...WITH BKN CIGS OF 12-15 KFT IN PLACE BY THE
AFTN HOURS FOR KALB/KGFL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE BEST MIXING IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE
BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW
PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
     THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 211054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED AROUND 40 DEGREES FROM
ALBANY NORTHWARD...WHILE DOWN IN THE 30S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THAT IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST HAD LESS WIND AND
CLOUDS COMPARED TO THOSE AREAS NORTH WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
PERSISTENT BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM RADIATION
AS MUCH.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY A VERY MINOR RETWEAKING OF THE GRIDS.

TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FINE SPRING DAY. THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COMPARED TO SUNDAY...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK
MILDER THAN SUNDAY. THEY ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
60-65 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MOST
PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A
PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT
THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FEATURE.

WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME
POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND
70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP
TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD
ACCUMULATE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
00004000
 LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF
TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER
30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS
NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...
A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY
FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW
DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER
BLOCKY.  TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS.
WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION.  WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z TUESDAY.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE THRUWAY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY...WITH BKN CIGS OF 12-15 KFT IN
PLACE BY THE AFTN HOURS FOR KALB/KGFL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE BEST MIXING IN
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THU-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE
BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW
PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
     THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END
OFF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 527 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ONE MORE DRY AND WARM
DAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 527 AM EDT MONDAY...TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. POPS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THE
EVENING...AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH TIMING OF FRONT
AND LOW IS SILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE
NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TEMPERATURES
ARE A LITTLE TRICKY FOR MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY DUE TO POSITION OF
THE FRONT. LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH
ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 01Z TONIGHT AT MSS/SLK AND 04Z AT PBG/BTV. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED SO ONLY PUT VCSH IN FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH 10-20 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN/NEILES/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN/NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210929
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
529 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END
OFF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 527 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ONE MORE DRY AND WARM
DAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 527 AM EDT MONDAY...TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. POPS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THE
EVENING...AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH TIMING OF FRONT
AND LOW IS SILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE
NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TEMPERATURES
ARE A LITTLE TRICKY FOR MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY DUE TO POSITION OF
THE FRONT. LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH
ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 03Z MONDAY NIGHT AT MSS/SLK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS AT BTV/MPV AND
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AT RUT. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LIKELY AT MSS WITH 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000
FEET. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH 10-20 KNOT
GUSTS...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND
NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN/NEILES/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN/NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
526 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END
OFF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ONE MORE DRY AND WARM DAY
AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST AND REMAINING THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER
DRY WARM DAY IS IN ORDER FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. POPS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
LIKELY IN THE ST LAW
00004000
RENCE VALLEY BY THE EVENING...AND LIKELY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH TIMING OF FRONT AND LOW IS SILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY
18Z...AND THEN EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY
FOR MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY DUE TO POSITION OF THE FRONT. LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 03Z MONDAY NIGHT AT MSS/SLK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS AT BTV/MPV AND
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AT RUT. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LIKELY AT MSS WITH 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000
FEET. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH 10-20 KNOT
GUSTS...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND
NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN/NEILES/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN/NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 210902
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...MANY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA
STILL INDICATE A SOUTHEAST BREEZE STILL HAPPENING IN THE RANGE OF 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A WHOLE
LOT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO
PREVENTED RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...GLENS FALLS WAS MILDER THAN
ALBANY! (ALB/44 VERSUS GFL/47).

IN OUR SOUTH AND EASTERN ZONES...THE WIND HAS DECOUPLED AND THE SKY
WAS THE CLEAREST. THIS HAS ALLOW THESE AREAS TO INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS BUT
EVERYONE WAS DRY.

THROUGH SUNRISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES AND IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...
EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY UP NORTH OF GLENS FALLS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY COULD DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES.

TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FINE SPRING DAY. THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER, AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILDER THAN SUNDAY.
THEY ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN 60-65 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MOST
PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A
PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT
THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FEATURE.

WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME
POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND
70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP
TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD
ACCUMULATE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF
TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER
30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS
NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...
A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY
FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW
DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER
BLOCKY.  TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS.
WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION.  WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z TUESDAY.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE THRUWAY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY...WITH BKN CIGS OF 12-15 KFT IN
PLACE BY THE AFTN HOURS FOR KALB/KGFL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE BEST MIXING IN
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THU-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE
BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW
PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 210900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...MANY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA
STILL INDICATE A SOUTHEAST BREEZE STILL HAPPENING IN THE RANGE OF 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A WHOLE
LOT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO
PREVENTED RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...GLENS FALLS WAS MILDER THAN
ALBANY! (ALB/44 VERSUS GFL/47).

IN OUR SOUTH AND EASTERN ZONES...THE WIND HAS DECOUPLED AND THE SKY
WAS THE CLEAREST. THIS HAS ALLOW THESE AREAS TO INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS BUT
EVERYONE WAS DRY.

THROUGH SUNRISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES AND IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...
EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY UP NORTH OF GLENS FALLS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY COULD DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES.

TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FINE SPRING DAY. THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER, AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILDER THAN SUNDAY.
THEY ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN 60-65 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MOST
PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A
PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT
THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FEATURE.

WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME
POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND
70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME H
00003B0F
IGHER GUSTS.

COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP
TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD
ACCUMULATE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF
TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER
30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BREEZE
WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS
NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...
A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY
FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW
DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER
BLOCKY.  TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS.
WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION.  WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z TUESDAY.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE THRUWAY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY...WITH BKN CIGS OF 12-15 KFT IN
PLACE BY THE AFTN HOURS FOR KALB/KGFL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE BEST MIXING IN
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THU-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS).

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE
BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW
PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY ...THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
GOING INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END
OFF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY...ONLY MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST.

VARYING AMOUNT OF HI/MID CLDS ACRS FA BUT ITS A BRISK LLVL JET IN
S-N VLYS THAT IS CAUSING A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS WITH CHMPL VLY THE
MILDEST. THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN FCST...THUS NO CHGS
NEEDED.

324 PM DISCUSSION...A GREAT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GREAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH MORE OF A SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ ONTARIO AND WILL NOT AFFECT THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT WITH THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD TO MOVE THROUGH. WIND
REGIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL STAY SSW AROUND 5-15 MPH.
BIGGEST DROP IN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET/EARLY
EVENING. LARGE T/TD SPREAD OVER THE AREA ATTM WILL SHRINK AFTER
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN EASTERN VERMONT/
DACKS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE WILL BE THE RANGE OF LOWS
FOR THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST AND REMAINING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY...SPREADING PRECIP INTO THE REST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY MORNING. FROPA OCCURS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH A
TAPERING OF MOST PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER...MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY WILL HAVE AREA MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL CLOUDS REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
BLANKETING THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY. WITH RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH SOME SLOW
CLEARING IN VALLEY LOCALES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY WITH
FROPA...PUTTING FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ENTIRE AREA MONDAY
AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH EASTERN CWA SEEING SITUATION OF EARLY HIGHS
WITH FROPA OCCURRING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH STRONG SSW GRADIENT DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WILL HAVE AREA SEEING AT OR BELOW NOUNAL TEMPS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CAA ON NORTHERLY FETCH. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
FACTOR IN OVERNGT LOWS TUESDAY. OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
ON MONDAY WITH 50S IN N NY/60S IN VT FOR TUESDAY WITH DIFFERENCE
BEING FRONT PLACEMENT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO
L40S...COLDEST IN HIR TRRN TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN SSW WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTEN AS FRONT APPROACHES. LOOKING FOR 5-15 MPH WITH
AREAS 10-20 MPH WITH FRONT. WITH FROPA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SFC LOW PASSES OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHIFTS TO
MORE NORTHERLY REMAINING IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE UNTIL UPPER
SUPPORT PASSES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

PRECIP...MAIN P-TYPE WITH FROPA WILL FALL AS RAINSHOWERS...WITH
SOME RW/SW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR BLEEDS INTO REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSSIBLE
IN THESE SPOTS. OVERALL QPF FOR THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 0.30"
TO 0.60".

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 03Z MONDAY NIGHT AT MSS/SLK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS AT BTV/MPV AND
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AT RUT. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LIKELY AT MSS WITH 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000
FEET. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH 10-20 KNOT
GUSTS...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND
NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN/NEILES/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

      
      

  
    
  
  
        US Dept of Commerce
          National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
          National Weather Service
          1325 East West Highway
          Silver Spring, MD 20910
          Page Author:  NWS Internet Services Team
    Disclaimer
      Information Quality
      Credits
      Glossary
    Privacy Policy
      Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
      About Us
      Career Opportunities
  

      
    
  

00000000










US Forecasts are Public Domain and derived from the
National Weather Service - (IWIN) and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Canadian forecasts are obtained from and are copyright of Environment Canada.


Home / Live U.S. Radar & Cities By State | WXnation Wire: Weather, Space News Blog | National / International | Streaming Radars & Webcams | Your Weather | Hurricanes | Site Map

Privacy Policy/Terms Of Use | About Us | Contact Us/Comment
Copyright © 2002-2014 WXnation.com  All rights reserved.