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000
FXUS61 KALY 010552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING...AND TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...RETURNING TO NORMALS BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND REDUCED POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WERE RADAR LOOPS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CURRENT LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...TNGT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA
LATE SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING
SE INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT
HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES
NORTHWEST OR WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT
OR EARLY SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WELL INTO SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND
ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY
GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT- TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING
FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS
THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...ESP ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN MRNG THE 500HPA CUT OFF IS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AS AN INTENSE
SFC LOW IS ABOUT 300 MI SE OF CAPE COD. WINDS WILL BE HOWLING ACROSS
FCA AS A 25HPA SFC WIND GRADIENT IS OVER NY.

THE 00UTC GFS/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PVS FCST...AND THE NAM
HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER. AS THE INTENSE VERTICAL
SYSTEM LIFTS NE SUN CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS SKIES
CLR FM W TO E. STRONG WINDS...AND CAA WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE
WINTER THAN EARLY NOV. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S SUN...AND FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S SUN NT UNDER CLR SKIES
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM OHIO VLY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DIM AS 12 HPA WIND GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE FCA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE RELAXING MONDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM THE MISS VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD TUES. THE SFC HIGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST...BUT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND ALONG
THE ATLC COAST BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND BLO
NORMAL MONDAY W/MS CONDS. MON NT WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS AND CLOUDS LIMIT MINS. TUES A WMFNT WILL LIFT NE OF
THE REGION IN THE MRNG AS THE 500HPA RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE MORE INTO THE 50S WITH PC CONDS. TUES NT A TRAILING
CDFNT ASSOC WITH A LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FCA AS ITS WEAKENING AND SLOWING WITH LITTLE TO NO UPR
DYNAMICS. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TUE NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW EXTENDING FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER RUNS. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST FOR THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES WILL NOW FEATURE
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT PCPN. DURING SATURDAY EVENING...
RAIN IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KALB TAF
SITES...BUT WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB BY
THE TIME IT COOLS OFF ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW. AT
KPSF...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING
ON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IFR VSBYS IN THE SNOW. IFR VSBYS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
AT KPSF. JUST LIQUID PCPN IS EXPECTED AT KPOU THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
(THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD).

WINDS BE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING THE WIND AT THE TAF SITES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH AND THEN TO NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH
SPEED INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KTS BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 010542
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AMOUNTING TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 107 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS ACRS THE
DACKS BASED ON CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
CLOUD SKIES AND COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO 

000
FXUS61 KALY 010535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING...AND TRIGGERING AN INTENSE STORM OFFSHORE. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. IT
WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IT WILL
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND DRAW COLDER AIR INTO REGION WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...RETURNING TO NORMALS BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND REDUCED POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WERE RADAR LOOPS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CURRENT LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TODAY...TNGT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA
LATE SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING
SE INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT
HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES
NORTHWEST OR WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT
OR EARLY SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WELL INTO SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND
ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY
GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT- TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING
FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS
THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...ESP ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN MRNG THE 500HPA CUT OFF IS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AS AN INTENSE
SFC LOW IS ABOUT 300 MI SE OF CAPE COD. WINDS WILL BE HOWLING ACROSS
FCA AS A 25HPA SFC WIND GRADIENT IS OVER NY.

THE 00UTC GFS/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PVS FCST...AND THE NAM
HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER. AS THE INTENSE VERTICAL
SYSTEM LIFTS NE SUN CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH AS SKIES
CLR FM W TO E. STRONG WINDS...AND CAA WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE
WINTER THAN EARLY NOV. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S SUN...AND FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S SUN NT UNDER CLR SKIES
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM OHIO VLY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DIM AS 12 HPA WIND GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE FCA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE RELAXING MONDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM THE MISS VLY TO THE ATLC SEABOARD TUES. THE SFC HIGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST...BUT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND ALONG
THE ATLC COAST BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND BLO
NORMAL MONDAY W/MS CONDS. MON NT WAA OVER THE TOP OF THE 500HPA
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NR NORMALS AND CLOUDS LIMIT MINS. TUES A WMFNT WILL LIFT NE OF
THE REGION IN THE MRNG AS THE 500HPA RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE MORE INTO THE 50S WITH PC CONDS. TUES NT A TRAILING
CDFNT ASSOC WITH A LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FCA AS ITS WEAKENING AND SLOWING WITH LITTLE TO NO UPR
DYNAMICS. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TUE NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 010508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AMOUNTING TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 107 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS ACRS THE
DACKS BASED ON CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
CLOUD SKIES AND COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO 

000
FXUS61 KALY 010443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIR
WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HAVE RAINSED POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND REDUCED POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WERE RADAR LOOPS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CURRENT LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 010227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1027 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY
SHOULD BE FAIR WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1027 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE EVEN
NOTED HERE AT NWS OFFICE. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPANDED POPS INTO MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER
30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO GRIDDED DATABASE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS...
TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT
TIME EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER
N AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LI
0000164D
NGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 010215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AMOUNTING TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING UP WELL. I
DID RAISE MINS UP BY A DEGREE
00004000
 OR SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LOW-LEVELS STILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SO
GOING DRY FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS LOOKS GOOD. STARTING TO SEE
SOME LIGHT PRECIP SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO INTERIOR MA.
DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHERN VT ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AND MORE CONDUCIVE TO LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT OCCURRING UNTIL THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHEAST VT. ASIDE FROM POPULATING WITH
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 312355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
755 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AMOUNTING TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 733 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A REVIEW OF 18Z NAM/WRF AND BTV-4
GUIDANCE AND GIVEN RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...I`VE OPTED TO
REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ACCORDINGLY LOWERED QPF THERE AS WELL.

THOUGH COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY IS DETECTING LIGHT ECHOES EARLY
THIS EVENING...THAT`S SIMPLY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL OVERCAST DECK
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. RH`S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
ARE RATHER DRY (GENERALLY 50-60%) OWING TO DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. A LARGER RESERVOIR OF DRIER DEW POINTS (LOW
20S) EXISTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC. NEAR-SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON NORTHEAST GRADIENT FLOW...AS
POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ENERGIZING SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THAT DRY AIR SHOULD EVAPORATE
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OUT OF THE OVERCAST DECK
TONIGHT. 18Z GUIDANCE ALSO ISN`T PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION EITHER.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST DATA. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST LOWS...IN
THE 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO 

000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY
SHOULD BE FAIR WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 50S
IN THE MID HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS. NEAREST
PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE WEST ARE OVER THE FINGER LAKES...AND
ARE RELATIVELY STATIONARY. NEAREST PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE
EAST ARE OVER EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND MOVING NORTH. POPS REMAIN
LOW THIS EVENING. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT
TIME EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER
N AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AMOUNTING TO SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 733 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A REVIEW OF 18Z NAM/WRF AND BTV-4
GUIDANCE AND GIVEN RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...I`VE OPTED TO
REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ACCORDINGLY LOWERED QPF THERE AS WELL.

THOUGH COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY IS DETECTING LIGHT ECHOES EARLY
THIS EVENING...THAT`S SIMPLY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL OVERCAST DECK
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. RH`S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
ARE RATHER DRY (GENERALLY 50-60%) OWING TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S. A LARGER RESERVOIR OF DRIER DEWPOINTS (LOW 20S) EXISTS
TO THE NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC. NEAR-SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON NORTHEAST GRADIENT FLOW...AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ENERGIZING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THAT DRY AIR SHOULD EVAPORATE ANY LIGHT
PRECIP THAT FALLS OUT OF THE OVERCAST DECK TONIGHT. 18Z GUIDANCE
ALSO ISN`T PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON PRECIP EITHER.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST DATA. NO CHANGES TO FCST LOWS...IN THE 30S
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING 
0000127D
SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO 

000
FXUS61 KALY 312315
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
715 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY
SHOULD BE FAIR WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM...SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 50S
IN THE MID HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS. NEAREST
PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE WEST ARE OVER THE FINGER LAKES...AND
ARE RELATIVELY STATIONARY. NEAREST PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO THE
EAST ARE OVER EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND MOVING NORTH. POPS REMAIN
LOW THIS EVENING. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT
TIME EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER
N AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A CEILING
BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET...WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND
KPSF...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER 14Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU
AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN APPROACH 10 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SND
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 312042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS PERSIST FROM THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION SOUTH TO ALBANY AND INTO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE PREVALENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TRICKY CALL ON OVERALL SKY COVER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
EXPANDING WESTWARD...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM THE
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
FARTHER EAST...MAINLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT LOWER
CLOUDS...FROM MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
LI...TO EXPAND N AND W...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE
CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY FURTHER N
AND W LATER TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY RIDING NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN VA...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND LI...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
SE CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER N
AND W CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN...AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LINGER...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
WENT WITH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...WHICH MAY OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AG
00004000
AIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A CEILING
BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET...WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND
KPSF...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER 14Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU
AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN APPROACH 10 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311925
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN PLACE. SATELLITE AND LATEST NAM/RAP MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION/RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED NEAR WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO/SERN ONTARIO TO JUST NORTH OF
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE CARRIED 20-30 POPS IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. NELY WINDS FROM NEAR MONTREAL DOWN THE VALLEY
RESULTING IN SOME DRY ADVECTION AT LOW- LEVELS IN THIS AREA...SO
ANY QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIGHT (JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS).
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT N-NE. TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S...WITH EARLY AM LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE
A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT
THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER
LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z
GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN
CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH
POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL HALLOWEEN DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NO
00004000
RTH COUNTRY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S REGIONWIDE...OR 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
THE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO
TO NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR/ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY NE 5-10 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. JUST A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY AFFECTING ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS --
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW...

MONDAY:
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH.
GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY
THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START
OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

MONDAY NIGHT:
FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND
EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS
DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM
LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE
UNCERTAIN.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT
ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA
OF BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION
WITH POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL HALLOWEEN DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S REGIONWIDE...OR 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
THE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO
TO NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR/ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY NE 5-10 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. JUST A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY AFFECTING ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 

000
FXUS61 KALY 311729
AFDALY

AREA FOREC
00004000
AST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A CEILING
BETWEEN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET...WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND
KPSF...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER 14Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU
AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN APPROACH 10 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 311658
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW 
00004000
SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 311658
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL HALLOWEEN DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S REGIONWIDE...OR 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
THE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO
TO NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR/ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY NE 5-10 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. JUST A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY AFFECTING ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 

000
FXUS61 KALY 311339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
939 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE GONE VERY SOON...THEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNON. PREVIOUS FORECAST DESCRIBES
THE IMPORTANT FEATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND IS BELOW...

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 747 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 

000
FXUS61 KBTV 311135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 

000
FXUS61 KALY 311052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTE
00004000
RLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 311052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 310932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
531 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS

00001ED1
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
456 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC 
00004000
RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 

000
FXUS61 KALY 310825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-7
00004000
00MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 

000
FXUS61 KALY 310743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 310549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE
00004000
 EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT THURSDAY...TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO THE
MID- 40S LATE THIS EVENING AS EFFECTS OF OVERCAST SKIES MINIMIZING
RADIATIVE COOLING. THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE
BUILDING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN ON WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY COOLING THAT
TAKES PLACE WILL REMAIN SLOW. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
PRETTY WELL WITH ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOWS IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ADJACENT TO THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUS
00000B3C
TY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/
00004000
LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 310431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 310209
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1009 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT THURSDAY...TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO THE
MID- 40S LATE THIS EVENING AS EFFECTS OF OVERCAST SKIES MINIMIZING
RADIATIVE COOLING. THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE
BUILDING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN ON WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY COOLING THAT
TAKES PLACE WILL REMAIN SLOW. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
PRETTY WELL WITH ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOWS IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ADJACENT TO THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH

000
FXUS61 KALY 310122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNS
00004000
HINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING
UP WELL EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS NECESSARY WITH THIS UPDATE.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS PERSISTENT STRATUS/STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS...THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN
COMBINATION OF BLOCKED/SUBCRITICAL FLOW EVIDENT IN PROGGED FROUDE
NUMBERS AMD WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES
IN MEAN 925-700 MB WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...OPTED TO
RAISE HOURLY TEMPS UP A BIT AND LOWS UP 2-5 DEGREES WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS ALSO LOOKED A BIT TOO DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ADJUSTED THESE UPWARD BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL. EXPECTING
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD
SEE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM/`DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH

000
FXUS61 KALY 302313
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A
00004000
NY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302300
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DEALING WITH
PREVAILING STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS FROM NAM/RAP SOUNDING PROFILES
THAT CLOUD LAYER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
BREAKS. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S...AND A FEW LOWER 30S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. IF A FEW
ADDITIONAL BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME LOCALIZED
READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH

000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS 
00004000
AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DEALING WITH
PREVAILING STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS FROM NAM/RAP SOUNDING PROFILES
THAT CLOUD LAYER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
BREAKS. TRENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S...AND A FEW LOWER 30S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. IF A FEW
ADDITIONAL BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME LOCALIZED
READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KALY 301933
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
SOME CLEARING. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH AT
LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
00004000

WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH).
THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY
OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON`T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE`LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON`T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE `DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE`VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE `DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F.

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN`T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE`LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDR
00004000
OLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH).
THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY
OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH).
THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY
OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY A
00004000
ND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH
CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE
OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO 
00004000
CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT
WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER
STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA...

ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

F
00004000
OR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 301452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED
MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IFR CIGS AT
SLK. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT SLK THRU 14Z...BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AT MPV THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLW BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. REST OF TAF SITES WL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
HGHTS BTWN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY...BECOME LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF-
SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
MILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHE
00004000
R
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED
MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IFR CIGS AT
SLK. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT SLK THRU 14Z...BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AT MPV THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLW BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. REST OF TAF SITES WL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
HGHTS BTWN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY...BECOME LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF-
SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 301113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GEN
00004000
ERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
MILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECICP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300850
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS A
00004000
N UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECICP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

000
FXUS61 KALY 300841
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREAS.
THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HAVE RAISED
MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
AS CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AS SKIES HAVE
BRIEFLY CLEARED ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FORECASTED
LOW. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER STARTING TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECICP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INT
00000C29
ERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

      
      

  
    
  
  
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