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0000C000000
FXUS61 KALY 161716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL...FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HAVE PULLED BACK A BIT ON HIGHS FOR THE DAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER/LIMITED SUNSHINE...LOOKING AT LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
BEING INDICATED ON RADAR...THESE TOO WILL DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AT THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES FOR
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS BY 20Z WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN IFR/MVFR FOG AT
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AMIDST THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO DEVELOP FIRST AT KGFL AND KPSF IN THE
03-06Z TIMEFRAME...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR FOG AT KALB AND KPOU AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING SHOULD LIMIT IFR FOG FORMATION...ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS TONIGHT.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TREND TOWARDS CALM WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161656
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1256 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT TUESDAY...SLOW CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS
NRN NY IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH HAS
EXITED EAST OF VERMONT. STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES
ACROSS NRN VT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ACROSS VERMONT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTN...WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS MID-DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY EAST OF KMSS. SKIES SLOWLY
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
ENOUGH CLEARING...KMPV AND KSLK WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIFR FOG.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 161528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1128 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND
COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A FEW
SMALL BREAKS. CLEARING IS NOTED UPSTREAM FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO THE ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO AREAS. STILL EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT IMAGERY.

RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
BASED ON THIS HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER THE PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE DEVELOPED. LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 60S BECAUSE OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 161528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1128 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND
COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A FEW
SMALL BREAKS. CLEARING IS NOTED UPSTREAM FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO THE ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO AREAS. STILL EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT IMAGERY.

RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
BASED ON THIS HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER THE PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE DEVELOPED. LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 60S BECAUSE OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY EXITED TO THE
EAST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHIFTS INTO
NH/ME. JUST THE CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN VT.
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT LIGHT
WEST 5-10 MPH THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS MID-DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY EAST OF KMSS. SKIES SLOWLY
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
ENOUGH CLEARING...KMPV AND KSLK WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIFR FOG.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY EXITED TO THE
EAST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHIFTS INTO
NH/ME. JUST THE CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN VT.
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT LIGHT
WEST 5-10 MPH THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS MID-DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY EAST OF KMSS. SKIES SLOWLY
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
ENOUGH CLEARING...KMPV AND KSLK WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIFR FOG.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MO
00004000
ISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL

00004000
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FR
00008000
ONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WINDING DOWN
ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND BULK OF
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
MIDDAY PERIOD. NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS MID-DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY EAST OF KMSS. SKIES SLOWLY
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
ENOUGH CLEARING...KMPV AND KSLK WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIFR FOG.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WINDING DOWN
ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND BULK OF
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
MIDDAY PERIOD. NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WINDING DOWN
ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND BULK OF
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
MIDDAY PERIOD. NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 161025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOST OF SOUTHERN VT. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...SOME SHOWERS ARE FINALLY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...SE CATSKILLS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS SE
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHER N AND W...THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF STEADY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E BETWEEN 7 AND
9 AM...BUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY
LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...INTO SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS BETWEEN
THROUGH AROUND 9 AM...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
PERSIST THROUGH NOONTIME AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES E.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY.
CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 161025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOST OF SOUTHERN VT. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...SOME SHOWERS ARE FINALLY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...SE CATSKILLS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS SE
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHER N AND W...THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF STEADY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E BETWEEN 7 AND
9 AM...BUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY
LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...INTO SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS BETWEEN
THROUGH AROUND 9 AM...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
PERSIST THROUGH NOONTIME AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES E.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY.
CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWIN
00004000
G MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 160851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BENNINGTON/WINDHAM
COS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ONLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS
FALLEN THIS FAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...NORTH INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS.

THROUGH SUNRISE...WE EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO PERSIST
ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER S AND E INTO MUCH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL BERKSHIRES BY
SUNRISE. FURTHER S AND E...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA SLIDE E.

AFTER SUNRISE...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS SE AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHER N AND W...THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...INTO SOUTHERN VT AND
WESTERN MA. ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND 10 AM...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH NOONTIME AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES E.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY.
CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN OCNL MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. KALB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS BUT MAINTAIN VFR
CONDS WHILE KPOU WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL AFT 05Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS
AND VSBYS TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT F
00004000
OR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 160851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BENNINGTON/WINDHAM
COS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ONLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS
FALLEN THIS FAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...NORTH INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS.

THROUGH SUNRISE...WE EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO PERSIST
ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER S AND E INTO MUCH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL BERKSHIRES BY
SUNRISE. FURTHER S AND E...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA SLIDE E.

AFTER SUNRISE...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS SE AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHER N AND W...THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...INTO SOUTHERN VT AND
WESTERN MA. ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND 10 AM...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH NOONTIME AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES E.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY.
CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN OCNL MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. KALB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS BUT MAINTAIN VFR
CONDS WHILE KPOU WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL AFT 05Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS
AND VSBYS TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160849
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
449 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE CHANCE OF A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD.
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACRO
00003B46
SS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160849
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
449 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE CHANCE OF A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD.
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOW
00004000
ERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTE
00004000
RED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 160524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE E/NE
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH SOME
SPRINKLES EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND FURTHER E AND S
INTO SOUTHERN VT...THE SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
SARATOGA/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE SOME POCKETS
OF MODERATE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. RAIN MAY BE A BIT MORE
INTERMITTENT AND LIGHTER SLIGHTLY FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

EVEN FURTHER S...INTO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION
AND NW CT...LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 1-3
HOURS. EVEN AFTER 4 AM...ONLY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AS A SOLID CLOUD DECK PREVAILS. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...WE EXPECT SOME WET BULB COOLING TO DROP TEMPS ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS...WITH MINS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST CLOSEST TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR
MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN OCNL MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. KALB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS BUT MAINTAIN VFR
CONDS WHILE KPOU WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL AFT 05Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS
AND VSBYS TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/FRUGIS/IAA
NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS/IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160452
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AN
00004000
D CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160452
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTI
00004000
CIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN
NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD
VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS
AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER.
LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST
SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN
NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD
VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS
AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER.
LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST
SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUS
00004000
TS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN
NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD
VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS
AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER.
LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST
SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 160230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN
NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD
VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS
AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER.
LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST
SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GR
00004000
OWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 160211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A
RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO ENCROACH OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. MOST OF THESE RADAR RETURNS ARE PROBABLY
NOT HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET...AS SEEN IN THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY. EVENTUALLY...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP...AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN 2 AM AND 7 AM.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO. CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY BKN-OVC AT 15-25 KFT. HOWEVER...BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AT ABOUT 4-5 KFT AND SHOWERS LOOK
TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WITHIN
SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS...AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR LATE NIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KGFL LATE
TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 160211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A
RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO ENCROACH OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. MOST OF THESE RADAR RETURNS ARE PROBABLY
NOT HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET...AS SEEN IN THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY. EVENTUALLY...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP...AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN 2 AM AND 7 AM.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO. CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY BKN-OVC AT 15-25 KFT. HOWEVER...BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AT ABOUT 4-5 KFT AND SHOWERS LOOK
TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WITHIN
SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS...AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR LATE NIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KGFL LATE
TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 
00004000
ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 152336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 152336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.

00004000
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 152336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 152336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL.
00004000
 MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 152334
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
734 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 734 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEPARTED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE DRY...SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED OUT RATHER DRY AND NEEDS TIME TO
MOISTEN UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO. CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY BKN-OVC AT 15-25 KFT. HOWEVER...BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AT ABOUT 4-5 KFT AND SHOWERS LOOK
TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WITHIN
SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS...AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR LATE NIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KGFL LATE
TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 152321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY M
00004000
OST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 152321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR 
00004000
WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 152321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 152321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WAR
00004000
M. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KALY 152046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DIG THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND WILL PASS
OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED OUT RATHER DRY AND
NEEDS TIME TO MOISTEN UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORITICTY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 152046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DIG THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND WILL PASS
OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED OUT RATHER DRY AND
NEEDS TIME TO MOISTEN UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORITICTY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
L
00004000
OWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 152046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DIG THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND WILL PASS
OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED OUT RATHER DRY AND
NEEDS TIME TO MOISTEN UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORITICTY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 152046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DIG THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND WILL PASS
OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED OUT RATHER DRY AND
NEEDS TIME TO MOISTEN UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORITICTY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCA
000023F5
LLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH
S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT B
00004000
TV/MSS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH
S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH
S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH
S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH
00004000
 LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH
S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID-
SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10
MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPE
00004000
RATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH

000
FXUS61 KALY 151751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 151751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 151751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOW
00004000
ED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 151751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 151711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TR
00004000
ICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORNING FOG STILL IMPACTING KALB...BUT HAS CLEARED OTHER TAF SITE.
EXPECT VFR WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFT WHEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
EVENING A SOLID DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH OVC050 IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL FIRST IMPACT KGFL
AND BE LAST TO IMPACT KPOU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 151711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORNING FOG STILL IMPACTING KALB...BUT HAS CLEARED OTHER TAF SITE.
EXPECT VFR WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFT WHEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
EVENING A SOLID DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH OVC050 IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL FIRST IMPACT KGFL
AND BE LAST TO IMPACT KPOU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151630
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID-
SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10
MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TE
00004000
RM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151630
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID-
SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10
MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151630
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID-
SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10
MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151630
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID-
SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10
MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. REMAINING VALLEY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT BY 15Z...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS WILL BE
MODERATING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
REACHING 60-65F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 5-8 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP (5-10 MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEPARTING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
00004000
 LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. REMAINING VALLEY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT BY 15Z...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS WILL BE
MODERATING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
REACHING 60-65F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 5-8 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP (5-10 MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEPARTING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. REMAINING VALLEY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT BY 15Z...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS WILL BE
MODERATING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
REACHING 60-65F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 5-8 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP (5-10 MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEPARTING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. REMAINING VALLEY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT BY 15Z...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS WILL BE
MODERATING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
REACHING 60-65F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 5-8 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP (5-10 MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEPARTING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRES
00004000
SURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 151319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
919 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT
STILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM...MOST OF THE AREA IS SUNNY. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND AREAS OF FOG
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...HUDSON VALLEY AND SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO AROUND 50 ELSEWHERE.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND EVENTUAL BREAKS OF SUN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

LATEST UPDATE MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SKY AND
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORNING FOG STILL IMPACTING KALB...BUT HAS CLEARED OTHER TAF SITE.
EXPECT VFR WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFT WHEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
EVENING A SOLID DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH OVC050 IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL FIRST IMPACT KGFL
AND BE LAST TO IMPACT KPOU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 151319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
919 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT
STILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM...MOST OF THE AREA IS SUNNY. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND AREAS OF FOG
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...HUDSON VALLEY AND SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO AROUND 50 ELSEWHERE.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND EVENTUAL BREAKS OF SUN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

LATEST UPDATE MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SKY AND
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORNING FOG STILL IMPACTING KALB...BUT HAS CLEARED OTHER TAF SITE.
EXPECT VFR WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFT WHEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
EVENING A SOLID DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH OVC050 IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL FIRST IMPACT KGFL
AND BE LAST TO IMPACT KPOU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 151319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
919 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WI
00004000
LL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT
STILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM...MOST OF THE AREA IS SUNNY. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND AREAS OF FOG
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...HUDSON VALLEY AND SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO AROUND 50 ELSEWHERE.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND EVENTUAL BREAKS OF SUN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

LATEST UPDATE MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SKY AND
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORNING FOG STILL IMPACTING KALB...BUT HAS CLEARED OTHER TAF SITE.
EXPECT VFR WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFT WHEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
EVENING A SOLID DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH OVC050 IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL FIRST IMPACT KGFL
AND BE LAST TO IMPACT KPOU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 151319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
919 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT
STILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM...MOST OF THE AREA IS SUNNY. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND AREAS OF FOG
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...HUDSON VALLEY AND SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO AROUND 50 ELSEWHERE.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND EVENTUAL BREAKS OF SUN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

LATEST UPDATE MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SKY AND
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORNING FOG STILL IMPACTING KALB...BUT HAS CLEARED OTHER TAF SITE.
EXPECT VFR WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFT WHEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
EVENING A SOLID DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH OVC050 IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL FIRST IMPACT KGFL
AND BE LAST TO IMPACT KPOU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151153
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 752 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN VERMONT TO EXPIRE. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW
CLOUDS MOVING EAST FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO AVERAGE OUT PARTLY SUNNY FOR TODAY. ALSO
EXPECTING MORNING VALLEY FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 458 AM EDT MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND FOG HAS HELPED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. SARANAC LAKE NOW AT 37 DEGREES. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO COVER
FOR THIS. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM EDT
IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP THE FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDA
00004000
Y MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151153
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 752 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN VERMONT TO EXPIRE. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW
CLOUDS MOVING EAST FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO AVERAGE OUT PARTLY SUNNY FOR TODAY. ALSO
EXPECTING MORNING VALLEY FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 458 AM EDT MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND FOG HAS HELPED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. SARANAC LAKE NOW AT 37 DEGREES. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO COVER
FOR THIS. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM EDT
IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP THE FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151153
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 752 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN VERMONT TO EXPIRE. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW
CLOUDS MOVING EAST FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO AVERAGE OUT PARTLY SUNNY FOR TODAY. ALSO
EXPECTING MORNING VALLEY FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 458 AM EDT MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND FOG HAS HELPED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. SARANAC LAKE NOW AT 37 DEGREES. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO COVER
FOR THIS. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM EDT
IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP THE FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151153
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 752 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN VERMONT TO EXPIRE. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW
CLOUDS MOVING EAST FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO AVERAGE OUT PARTLY SUNNY FOR TODAY. ALSO
EXPECTING MORNING VALLEY FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 458 AM EDT MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND FOG HAS HELPED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. SARANAC LAKE NOW AT 37 DEGREES. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO COVER
FOR THIS. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM EDT
IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP THE FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING T
00004000
HURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG
HAS HELPED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
SARANAC LAKE NOW AT 37 DEGREES. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO COVER FOR THIS.
HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM EDT
IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP THE FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG
HAS HELPED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
SARANAC LAKE NOW AT 37 DEGREES. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO COVER FOR THIS.
HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM EDT
IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP THE FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 151043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...ALL FROST/FREEZE STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING E/SE...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BERKSHIRES AROUND DAYBREAK.
FURTHER N...PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE GEORGE/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT THROUGH MID MORNING AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OCCASIONAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH
8 AM...GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 30S BUT A FEW POCKETS OF MID
30S COULD STILL OCCUR. PATCHY FOG FORMATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY. SO...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN NW AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WHILE BECOMING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE...BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND EVENTUAL BREAKS OF SUN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD B
00004000
E MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT AT KPSF AND KPOU.
EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING RESULTING IN
SCT045-050 AT MOST TAF SITES UNTIL LATE AFT WHEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
EVENING A SOLID DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH OVC050 IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL FIRST IMPACT KGFL AND
BE LAST TO IMPACT KPOU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 151043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...ALL FROST/FREEZE STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING E/SE...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BERKSHIRES AROUND DAYBREAK.
FURTHER N...PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE GEORGE/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT THROUGH MID MORNING AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OCCASIONAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH
8 AM...GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 30S BUT A FEW POCKETS OF MID
30S COULD STILL OCCUR. PATCHY FOG FORMATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY. SO...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN NW AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WHILE BECOMING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE...BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND EVENTUAL BREAKS OF SUN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT AT KPSF AND KPOU.
EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING RESULTING IN
SCT045-050 AT MOST TAF SITES UNTIL LATE AFT WHEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
EVENING A SOLID DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH OVC050 IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL FIRST IMPACT KGFL AND
BE LAST TO IMPACT KPOU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 150859
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
459 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
E/SE...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN 850-700 MB...ALONG WITH
LAKE MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH
BELOW 40 IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POCKETS OF
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S.

BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVERAGE...AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED THE FROST ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN TACT FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SINCE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 30S...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING E/SE...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BERKSHIRES AROUND DAYBREAK.
FURTHER N...PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE GEORGE/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OCCASIONAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 30S BUT A FEW POCKETS OF MID
30S COULD STILL OCCUR. PATCHY FOG FORMATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY. SO...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN NW AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WHILE BECOMING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE...BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND EVENTUAL BREAKS OF SUN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE I
00004000
NVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KPOU. THE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT AT KALB AND KPSF AND
AS A RESULT WILL NOT FORECAST FOG FOR THESE TWO LOCATIONS. AT KGFL
EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z WITH FOG PRESENT AT TIMES
BTWN 08Z AND 11Z RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. KPOU WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS MOVING IN AT THIS SITE LATE TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING RAIN TO THE TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z MON.

CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 150859
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
459 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
E/SE...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN 850-700 MB...ALONG WITH
LAKE MOISTURE. THESE CLOUDS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH
BELOW 40 IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POCKETS OF
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S.

BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVERAGE...AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED THE FROST ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN TACT FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SINCE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 30S...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING E/SE...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BERKSHIRES AROUND DAYBREAK.
FURTHER N...PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE GEORGE/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OCCASIONAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 30S BUT A FEW POCKETS OF MID
30S COULD STILL OCCUR. PATCHY FOG FORMATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY. SO...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN NW AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...WHILE BECOMING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE...BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND EVENTUAL BREAKS OF SUN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KPOU. THE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT AT KALB AND KPSF AND
AS A RESULT WILL NOT FORECAST FOG FOR THESE TWO LOCATIONS. AT KGFL
EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z WITH FOG PRESENT AT TIMES
BTWN 08Z AND 11Z RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. KPOU WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS MOVING IN AT THIS SITE LATE TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING RAIN TO THE TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z MON.

CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/SND

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
458 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG
HAS HELPED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
SARANAC LAKE NOW AT 37 DEGREES. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO COVER FOR THIS.
HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM EDT
IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP THE FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER 
00004000
THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
458 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG
HAS HELPED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
SARANAC LAKE NOW AT 37 DEGREES. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO COVER FOR THIS.
HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM EDT
IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP THE FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 159 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUD COVER AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
ENTERING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME FROM ONTARIO. WILL KEEP UP FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 159 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUD COVER AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
ENTERING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME FROM ONTARIO. WILL KEEP UP FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB T
00003A87
EMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 159 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUD COVER AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
ENTERING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME FROM ONTARIO. WILL KEEP UP FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 159 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUD COVER AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
ENTERING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME FROM ONTARIO. WILL KEEP UP FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150559
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
159 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENE
00004000
RALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 159 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUD COVER AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
ENTERING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME FROM ONTARIO. WILL KEEP UP FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150559
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
159 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 159 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUD COVER AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS
ENTERING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME FROM ONTARIO. WILL KEEP UP FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 150537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OUTLYING AREAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND
ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT. IT APPEARS THAT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITHIN THE 850-700
MB LAYER...COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...IS CONTRIBUTING
TO THESE CLOUDS. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SITUATION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE BOOSTED UP CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED...WITH THE MOST
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OBVIOUSLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST APPEARS TO BE GREATLY
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND POCKETS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...WHERE MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WILL KEEP CURRENT FROST/FREEZE
STATEMENT IN TACT WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT SHOULD TRENDS WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE CONTINUE...LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE DROPPED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...WITH MIN TEMPS RAISED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KPOU. THE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT AT KALB AND KPSF AND
AS A RESULT WILL NOT FORECAST FOG FOR THESE TWO LOCATIONS. AT KGFL
EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z WITH FOG PRESENT AT TIMES
BTWN 08Z AND 11Z RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. KPOU WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS MOVING IN AT THIS SITE LATE TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING RAIN TO THE TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z MON.

CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>040-042-
     043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNIN
00004000
G FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/FRUGIS/SND
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 150537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OUTLYING AREAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND
ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT. IT APPEARS THAT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITHIN THE 850-700
MB LAYER...COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...IS CONTRIBUTING
TO THESE CLOUDS. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SITUATION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE BOOSTED UP CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED...WITH THE MOST
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OBVIOUSLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST APPEARS TO BE GREATLY
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND POCKETS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...WHERE MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WILL KEEP CURRENT FROST/FREEZE
STATEMENT IN TACT WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT SHOULD TRENDS WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE CONTINUE...LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE DROPPED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE...WITH MIN TEMPS RAISED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KPOU. THE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT AT KALB AND KPSF AND
AS A RESULT WILL NOT FORECAST FOG FOR THESE TWO LOCATIONS. AT KGFL
EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z WITH FOG PRESENT AT TIMES
BTWN 08Z AND 11Z RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. KPOU WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS MOVING IN AT THIS SITE LATE TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING RAIN TO THE TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z MON.

CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>040-042-
     043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/FRUGIS/SND
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND...
BUT MOST OF WHERE THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLEAR. ALREADY MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 30S...SO
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS SHOULD WORK OUT NICELY. JUST
TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A REMINDER...
FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...TAKE
PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY AREAS
TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND...
BUT MOST OF WHERE THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLEAR. ALREADY MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 30S...SO
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS SHOULD WORK OUT NICELY. JUST
TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A REMINDER...
FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...TAKE
PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY AREAS
TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
R
00004000
EINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND...
BUT MOST OF WHERE THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLEAR. ALREADY MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 30S...SO
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS SHOULD WORK OUT NICELY. JUST
TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A REMINDER...
FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...TAKE
PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY AREAS
TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND...
BUT MOST OF WHERE THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLEAR. ALREADY MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 30S...SO
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS SHOULD WORK OUT NICELY. JUST
TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A REMINDER...
FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...TAKE
PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY AREAS
TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND...
BUT MOST OF WHERE THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLEAR. ALREADY MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 30S...SO
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS SHOULD WORK OUT NICELY. JUST
TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A REMINDER...
FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...TAKE
PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY AREAS
TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIFR FOG AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK...WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY LOWERING TO LIFR OR LOWER. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12-13Z
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH
ONLY SCT CUMULUS AND AN INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM E
00004000
DT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT SUNDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND...
BUT MOST OF WHERE THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLEAR. ALREADY MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 30S...SO
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS SHOULD WORK OUT NICELY. JUST
TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A REMINDER...
FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...TAKE
PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY AREAS
TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIFR FOG AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK...WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY LOWERING TO LIFR OR LOWER. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12-13Z
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH
ONLY SCT CUMULUS AND AN INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
     010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 150228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1028 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. FROST CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLYING
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1028 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED EASTERN AREAS LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS AN AREA OF
LOWER CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS IS OVER CENTRAL NY...AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN OUT SOMEWHAT AS THEY APPROACH OUR WESTERN AREAS.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SOUTHERN
VT...BERKSHIRES...CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN TACONICS. WE CONTINUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...AS PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN LOW LYING AREAS AWAY
FROM BODIES OF WATER. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY BE DEPARTING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE AREA FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS A RESULT...SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. AN INCREASE IN SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>040-042-043-
     047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 150228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1028 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. FROST CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLYING
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1028 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED EASTERN AREAS LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS AN AREA OF
LOWER CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS IS OVER CENTRAL NY...AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN OUT SOMEWHAT AS THEY APPROACH OUR WESTERN AREAS.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...SOUTHERN
VT...BERKSHIRES...CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN TACONICS. WE CONTINUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...AS PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN LOW LYING AREAS AWAY
FROM BODIES OF WATER. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SU
00004000
RFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY BE DEPARTING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE AREA FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS A RESULT...SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. AN INCREASE IN SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>040-042-043-
     047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KBTV 142330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 637 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR
ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. STILL
LOOKING AT FAVORABLE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL BUT
THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A
REMINDER...FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...
TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY
AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIFR FOG AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK...WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY LOWERING TO LIFR OR LOWER. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12-13Z
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH
ONLY SCT CUMULUS AND AN INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 142330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 637 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR
ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. STILL
LOOKING AT FAVORABLE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL BUT
THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A
REMINDER...FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...
TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY
AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIFR FOG AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK...WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY LOWERING TO LIFR OR LOWER. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12-13Z
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH
ONLY SCT CUMULUS AND AN INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 142327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. FROST CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLYING
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WILL BE SHIFTING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS
AREA...SOUTHERN VT...BERKSHIRES...CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN TACONICS.
WE CONTINUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...AS PATCHY/AREAS OF
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN LOW
LYING AREAS AWAY FROM BODIES OF WATER. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  T
00004000
HE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY BE DEPARTING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE AREA FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS A RESULT...SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. AN INCREASE IN SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>040-042-
     043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 142327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. FROST CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLYING
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WILL BE SHIFTING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS
AREA...SOUTHERN VT...BERKSHIRES...CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN TACONICS.
WE CONTINUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...AS PATCHY/AREAS OF
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN LOW
LYING AREAS AWAY FROM BODIES OF WATER. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY BE DEPARTING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE AREA FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS A RESULT...SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. AN INCREASE IN SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>040-042-
     043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 142327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. FROST CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLYING
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WILL BE SHIFTING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS
AREA...SOUTHERN VT...BERKSHIRES...CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN TACONICS.
WE CONTINUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...AS PATCHY/AREAS OF
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN LOW
LYING AREAS AWAY FROM BODIES OF WATER. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUND
00004000
AY AS GFS AND
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY BE DEPARTING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE AREA FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS A RESULT...SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. AN INCREASE IN SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>040-042-
     043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 142327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. FROST CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLYING
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MOST
AREAS LOOK TO BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WILL BE SHIFTING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 30S FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS
AREA...SOUTHERN VT...BERKSHIRES...CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN TACONICS.
WE CONTINUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...AS PATCHY/AREAS OF
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN LOW
LYING AREAS AWAY FROM BODIES OF WATER. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY BE DEPARTING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE AREA FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS A RESULT...SOME IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. AN INCREASE IN SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>040-042-
     043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KBTV 142238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 637 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR
ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. STILL
LOOKING AT FAVORABLE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL BUT
THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A
REMINDER...FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...
TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY
AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ATTM AND WILL
CONTINUE BY 22Z AS SKIES CLEAR. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AFT
04Z TO 14Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT KSLK/KMPV BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND TODAY...LGT/VRBL TNGT AND MON.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR.

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 142238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 637 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR
ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. STILL
LOOKING AT FAVORABLE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL BUT
THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A
REMINDER...FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING
00004000
...
TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY
AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ATTM AND WILL
CONTINUE BY 22Z AS SKIES CLEAR. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AFT
04Z TO 14Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT KSLK/KMPV BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND TODAY...LGT/VRBL TNGT AND MON.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR.

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KALY 142001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPANDED FROST ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

AS OF 400 PM...FAIR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND SOME PATCHY CUMULUS CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGHER
TE RAIN TO THE LOW 70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

A MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD SEPTEMBER NIGHT FORECAST. CURRENT DEWPOINTS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORECASTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE AREA AND
ABOVE NORMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS HAS LED US TO EXPAND FROST ADVISORY
TO COVER ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CT. GEFS ENSEMBLE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR ALBANY IS 33F WHILE
THE SREF ENSEMBLES SHOW 43F. WE FORECAST A LOW OF 40 AT THE ALBANY
AIRPORT...SO THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS THAT ARE USUALLY 5 DEG F OR SO
COLDER IN THAN THE AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE FROST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. STILL HAVE FREEZE WARNING FOR OUR
ADIRONDACK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE.

IN THE RADIATIVE COOLING ENVIRONMENT...SOME MIST OR FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONFIDENCE WAS THE
GREATEST TO PLACE LIFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF BTWN 08Z-13Z/MON.
ONLY MVFR VSBYS ARE FCST FOR SHALLOW RADIATIVE MIST AT KGFL AT
THIS TIME BTWN 08Z-12Z/MON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST SOME
SCT THIN AND FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH NEARBY WILL YIELD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WINDS AFTER 12Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>040-042-
     043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KALY 142001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPANDED FROST ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

AS OF 400 PM...FAIR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND SOME PATCHY CUMULUS CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGHER
TE RAIN TO THE LOW 70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

A MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD SEPTEMBER NIGHT FORECAST. CURRENT DEWPOINTS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORECASTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE AREA AND
ABOVE NORMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS HAS LED US TO EXPAND FROST ADVISORY
TO COVER ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CT. GEFS ENSEMBLE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR ALBANY IS 33F WHILE
THE SREF ENSEMBLES SHOW 43F. WE FORECAST A LOW OF 40 AT THE ALBANY
AIRPORT...SO THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS THAT ARE USUALLY 5 DEG F OR SO
COLDER IN THAN THE AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE FROST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. STILL HAVE FREEZE WARNING FOR OUR
ADIRONDACK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE.

IN THE RADIATIVE COOLING ENVIRONMENT...SOME MIST OR FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONFIDENCE WAS THE
GREATEST TO PLACE LIFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF BTWN 08Z-13Z/MON.
ONLY MVFR VSBYS ARE FCST FOR SHALLOW RADIATIVE MIST AT KGFL AT
THIS TIME BTWN 08Z-12Z/MON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THEREAFTER WITH 
00004000
JUST SOME
SCT THIN AND FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH NEARBY WILL YIELD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WINDS AFTER 12Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>040-042-
     043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND

000
FXUS61 KBTV 141927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...MID-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWING LOW-LEVEL STRATUS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH BETTER
MIXING TAKING PLACE BENEATH THE 925MB TEMPERATURE
INVERSION...WHICH HAS BEEN PRESENT ALL DAY. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL SET UP A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONTINUES TO LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A
COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY VT. WILL SEE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT.
HAVE CONTINUED FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN WRN CLINTON COUNTY NY AND
CENTRAL/ERN VT TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 29F AT KSLK...AND
GENERALLY 30-32F ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ESSEX COUNTY VT.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOW 40S AROUND LAKE
CHAMPLAIN WITH THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS.

FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...TAKE
PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY AREAS
TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY
DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE USUAL VALLEYS 05-13Z...INCLUDING THE
LOWER PASSUMPSIC...CONNECTICUT...AND WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ATTM AND WILL
CONTINUE BY 22Z AS SKIES CLEAR. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AFT
04Z TO 14Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT KSLK/KMPV BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND TODAY...LGT/VRBL TNGT AND MON.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR.

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 141927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...MID-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWING LOW-LEVEL STRATUS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH BETTER
MIXING TAKING PLACE BENEATH THE 925MB TEMPERATURE
INVERSION...WHICH HAS BEEN PRESENT ALL DAY. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL SET UP A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONTINUES TO LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A
COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY VT. WILL SEE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT.
HAVE CONTINUED FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN WRN CLINTON COUNTY NY AND
CENTRAL/ERN VT TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 29F AT KSLK...AND
GENERALLY 30-32F ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ESSEX COUNTY VT.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOW 40S AROUND LAKE
CHAMPLAIN WITH THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS.

FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...TAKE
PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY AREAS
TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY
DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE USUAL VALLEYS 05-13Z...INCLUDING THE
LOWER PASSUMPSIC...CONNECTICUT...AND WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ATTM AND WILL
CONTINUE BY 22Z AS SKIES CLEAR. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AFT
04Z TO 14Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT KSLK/KMPV BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND TODAY...LGT/VRBL TNGT AND MON.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR.

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 141812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
212 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES
WILL BE CLOUDY THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
AREAS OF FROST WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 106 PM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING THE START OF
A SLOW EROSION OF THE STRATUS LAYER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE BEGIN TO GET SOME BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING WITH PEAK
IN DAYTIME HEATING. WILL SEE A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST BASED ON THESE LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CONTINUED N-NW
WINDS AT 5-10 MPH.

CONCERNING THE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE WE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS...BASED ON EXPECTATION OF LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER
30S. ALSO ADDED WRN CLINTON COUNTY TO THE FROST ADVISORY.
REMAINDER OF THE FROST ADVISORY ACROSS VERMONT REMAINS THE SAME
FOR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. WILL SEE SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE USUAL VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LOWER
PASSUMPSIC...CONNECTICUT...AND WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT SUNDAY...A DRY DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY... SO EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BE DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHA
00004000
NCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ATTM AND WILL
CONTINUE BY 22Z AS SKIES CLEAR. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AFT
04Z TO 14Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT KSLK/KMPV BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND TODAY...LGT/VRBL TNGT AND MON.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR.

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 141812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
212 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES
WILL BE CLOUDY THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
AREAS OF FROST WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 106 PM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING THE START OF
A SLOW EROSION OF THE STRATUS LAYER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE BEGIN TO GET SOME BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING WITH PEAK
IN DAYTIME HEATING. WILL SEE A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST BASED ON THESE LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CONTINUED N-NW
WINDS AT 5-10 MPH.

CONCERNING THE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE WE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS...BASED ON EXPECTATION OF LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER
30S. ALSO ADDED WRN CLINTON COUNTY TO THE FROST ADVISORY.
REMAINDER OF THE FROST ADVISORY ACROSS VERMONT REMAINS THE SAME
FOR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. WILL SEE SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE USUAL VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LOWER
PASSUMPSIC...CONNECTICUT...AND WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT SUNDAY...A DRY DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY... SO EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BE DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ATTM AND WILL
CONTINUE BY 22Z AS SKIES CLEAR. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AFT
04Z TO 14Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT KSLK/KMPV BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND TODAY...LGT/VRBL TNGT AND MON.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR.

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

000
FXUS61 KALY 141752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...A MAINLY FAIR AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT...NORTHWARD TO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY. 1 PM TEMPERATURES
RANGED RANGED FROM A LOW OF 49 AT INLET AND LONG LAKE IN HAMILTON
COUNTY...TO 64 AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND 65 AT THOMASTON IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S.

GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER
TOMORROW MORNING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND
FROST ADVISORY WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE. OTHER CHANGES WERE MAINLY
TO REFRESH GRIDDED FIELDS THROUGH 8 AM WEDNESDAY WITH PRELIMINARY
NUMBERS INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FA AND WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A
TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TON OUR SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN LIKE
SATURDAYS SYSTEM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. LOWS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAVE BECOME A BIT
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING EASTERN
CANADA FOR WED-EARLY THU...AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE COOL SURGE INTO THE REGION
FOR THU-FRI. 850 TEMPS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 0 TO +3 C
RANGE FROM N TO S...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 C WARMER THAN MODEL OUTPUT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. NEVERTHELESS...STILL EXPECT COOLER TEMPS WED
NT-FRI...WITH SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM WED NT INTO THU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A MOISTENING LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS.

SO...FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WED MAXES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT MINS WED NT/THU AM TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS. FOR THU AND FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR FRI AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH GENERALLY MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES...WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. BY SAT...AFTER A CHILLY START WITH
MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WITH
MAXES REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER 70 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE.

IN THE RADIATIVE COOLING ENVIRONMENT...SOME MIST OR FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONFIDENCE WAS THE
GREATEST TO PLACE LIFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF BTWN 08Z-13Z/MON.
ONLY MVFR VSBYS ARE FCST FOR SHALLOW RADIATIVE MIST AT KGFL AT
THIS TIME BTWN 08Z-12Z/MON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST SOME
SCT THIN AND FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH NEARBY WILL YIELD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WINDS AFTER 12Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACRS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ042-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 141752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...A MAINLY FAIR AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT...NORTHWARD TO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY. 1 PM TEMPERATURES
RANGED RANGED FROM A LOW OF 49 AT INLET AND LONG LAKE IN HAMILTON
COUNTY...TO 64 AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND 65 AT THOMASTON IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S.

GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER
TOMORROW MORNING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND
FROST ADVISORY WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE. OTHER CHANGES WERE MAINLY
TO REFRESH GRIDDED FIELDS THROUGH 8 AM WEDNESDAY WITH PRELIMINARY
NUMBERS INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FA AND WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A
TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TON OUR SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN LIKE
SATURDAYS SYSTEM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. LOWS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAVE BECOME A BIT
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING EASTERN
CANADA FOR WED-EARLY THU...AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE COOL SURGE INTO THE REGION
FOR THU-FRI. 850 TEMPS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 0 TO +3 C
RANGE FROM N TO S...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 C WARMER THAN MODEL OUTPUT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. NEVERTHELESS...STILL EXPECT COOLER TEMPS WED
NT-FRI...WITH SOME AREAS OF FRO
00004000
ST POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM WED NT INTO THU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A MOISTENING LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS.

SO...FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WED MAXES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT MINS WED NT/THU AM TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS. FOR THU AND FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR FRI AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH GENERALLY MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES...WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. BY SAT...AFTER A CHILLY START WITH
MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WITH
MAXES REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER 70 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE.

IN THE RADIATIVE COOLING ENVIRONMENT...SOME MIST OR FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONFIDENCE WAS THE
GREATEST TO PLACE LIFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF BTWN 08Z-13Z/MON.
ONLY MVFR VSBYS ARE FCST FOR SHALLOW RADIATIVE MIST AT KGFL AT
THIS TIME BTWN 08Z-12Z/MON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST SOME
SCT THIN AND FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH NEARBY WILL YIELD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WINDS AFTER 12Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACRS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ042-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 141752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...A MAINLY FAIR AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT...NORTHWARD TO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY. 1 PM TEMPERATURES
RANGED RANGED FROM A LOW OF 49 AT INLET AND LONG LAKE IN HAMILTON
COUNTY...TO 64 AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND 65 AT THOMASTON IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S.

GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER
TOMORROW MORNING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND
FROST ADVISORY WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE. OTHER CHANGES WERE MAINLY
TO REFRESH GRIDDED FIELDS THROUGH 8 AM WEDNESDAY WITH PRELIMINARY
NUMBERS INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FA AND WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A
TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TON OUR SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN LIKE
SATURDAYS SYSTEM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. LOWS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAVE BECOME A BIT
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING EASTERN
CANADA FOR WED-EARLY THU...AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE COOL SURGE INTO THE REGION
FOR THU-FRI. 850 TEMPS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 0 TO +3 C
RANGE FROM N TO S...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 C WARMER THAN MODEL OUTPUT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. NEVERTHELESS...STILL EXPECT COOLER TEMPS WED
NT-FRI...WITH SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM WED NT INTO THU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A MOISTENING LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS.

SO...FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WED MAXES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT MINS WED NT/THU AM TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS. FOR THU AND FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR FRI AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH GENERALLY MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES...WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. BY SAT...AFTER A CHILLY START WITH
MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WITH
MAXES REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER 70 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE.

IN THE RADIATIVE COOLING ENVIRONMENT...SOME MIST OR FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONFIDENCE WAS THE
GREATEST TO PLACE LIFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF BTWN 08Z-13Z/MON.
ONLY MVFR VSBYS ARE FCST FOR SHALLOW RADIATIVE MIST AT KGFL AT
THIS TIME BTWN 08Z-12Z/MON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST SOME
SCT THIN AND FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH NEARBY WILL YIELD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WINDS AFTER 12Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACRS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ042-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 141752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...A MAINLY FAIR AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT...NORTHWARD TO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY. 1 PM TEMPERATURES
RANGED RANGED FROM A LOW OF 49 AT INLET AND LONG LAKE IN HAMILTON
COUNTY...TO 64 AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND 65 AT THOMASTON IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S.

GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER
TOMORROW MORNING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND
FROST ADVISORY WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE. OTHER CHANGES WERE MAINLY
TO REFRESH GRIDDED FIELDS THROUGH 8 AM WEDNESDAY WITH PRELIMINARY
NUMBERS INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FA AND WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A
TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TON OUR SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN LIKE
SATURDAYS SYSTEM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. LOWS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAVE BECOME A BIT
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING EASTERN
CANADA FOR WED-EARLY THU...AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE COOL SURGE INTO THE REGION
FOR THU-FRI. 850 TEMPS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 0 TO +3 C
RANGE FROM N TO S...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 C WARMER THAN MODEL OUTPUT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. NEVERTHELESS...STILL EXPECT COOLER TEMPS WED
NT-FRI...WITH SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM WED NT INTO THU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A MOISTENING LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS.

SO...FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WED MAXES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT MINS WED NT/THU AM TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS. FOR THU AND FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR FRI AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH GENERALLY MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND SOUTHE
00001450
RN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES...WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. BY SAT...AFTER A CHILLY START WITH
MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WITH
MAXES REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER 70 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE.

IN THE RADIATIVE COOLING ENVIRONMENT...SOME MIST OR FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONFIDENCE WAS THE
GREATEST TO PLACE LIFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF BTWN 08Z-13Z/MON.
ONLY MVFR VSBYS ARE FCST FOR SHALLOW RADIATIVE MIST AT KGFL AT
THIS TIME BTWN 08Z-12Z/MON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST SOME
SCT THIN AND FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH NEARBY WILL YIELD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WINDS AFTER 12Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACRS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ042-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

      
      

  
    
  
  
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