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0000B4B4000
FXUS61 KALY 040814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO
START THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...AS WE REMAIN
IN A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MICHIGAN/INDIANA...WHILE A VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS NORTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION INCREASING
POPS ACROSS THE REGION TO THE LIKELY RANGE.

IT WILL NOT BE RAINING FOR THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COOL...DAMP AND DREARY AGAIN TODAY. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES AND MENTION
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY THE 50S TODAY...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS CONTINUES THE TREND OF WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TO START THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT...AS
THE VORT MAX MOVES OUT AND THE FORCING ABATES. STILL...A FEW MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE YET ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY...AS WE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. WILL ONLY MENTION
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME. WITH A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN ONCE AGAIN AND SHOULD BE AROUND
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FAIRLY WET DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING...AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF QPF DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...BUT
AGAIN TRENDS RESULTING IN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND I-90
SOUTHWARD. TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL...BUT MAY
MODERATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE MID 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE SOONER.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE
MAIN FORCING SHIFTS WEST OF THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH THE PESKY CUT-OFF LOW REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS UNSETTLED...BUT A TREND TOWARDS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINS POTENTIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY OPENS WITH THE PESKY CUTOFF LOW STILL NEAR NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IT FINALLY OPENS UP...AS SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SAT
MORNING...AS ONE MORE IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE DECAYING CUTOFF
WITH A CHC SHOWERS TO START THE DAY. ANY AFTERNOON ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY WITH MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC/WPC
GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM S/SE CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SAT NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE SURGING TOWARDS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A QUICKER
PASSAGE IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM FOR THE ALY FCST AREA. THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST JUST YET. EXTREMELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST 00Z GFS /7-8C/KM/...BUT THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
HIGH CHC POPS ARE USED EAST OF THE WRN DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN DACK AND
MOHAWK VALLEY. SLIGHT CHC AND LOW CHC POPS ARE USED IN THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONT. LOWS SAT
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE U50S
TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL BE BRISK DUE TO THE STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS...AND DEEPER
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER COMMENCING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO THE MID WEEK...AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR A EXTENDED TIME OF FAIR AND BENIGN WEATHER. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK...BUT BY TUESDAY H850 TEMPS
RISE TO +3 TO +6C WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE U60S TO L70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U50S
TO M60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED TODAY.
MEANWHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
OF THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE WITH SCT SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE.

DRIZZLE AND SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE FROM KALB/KPSF SOUTH TO KPOU. VSBYS
HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. FURTHER NORTH CIGS ARE
IN THE HIGH MVFR/VFR RANGE AT KGFL...BUT THEY SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOW MVFR/IFR RANGE QUICKLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LEVELS BY 15Z-18Z.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AGAIN WITH LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KALB NORTH TO KGFL...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS WOULD RETURN LATE THIS PM AT
KPOU. IN THE MOIST AND DAMP AIR MASS KPSF WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5
KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE NE TO SE AT
6 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 TO
75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN INTENSITY MUCH OF THE TIME.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF
INCH...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH THE RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE
PROCESS OF GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY
OR ONLY SHOW SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 040814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO
START THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...AS WE REMAIN
IN A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MICHIGAN/INDIANA...WHILE A VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS NORTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION INCREASING
POPS ACROSS THE REGION TO THE LIKELY RANGE.

IT WILL NOT BE RAINING FOR THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COOL...DAMP AND DREARY AGAIN TODAY. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES AND MENTION
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY THE 50S TODAY...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS CONTINUES THE TREND OF WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TO START THE MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT...AS
THE VORT MAX MOVES OUT AND THE FORCING ABATES. STILL...A FEW MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE YET ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY...AS WE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. WILL ONLY MENTION
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME. WITH A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN ONCE AGAIN AND SHOULD BE AROUND
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FAIRLY WET DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING...AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF QPF DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...BUT
AGAIN TRENDS RESULTING IN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND I-90
SOUTHWARD. TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL...BUT MAY
MODERATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE MID 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE SOONER.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE
MAIN FORCING SHIFTS WEST OF THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH THE PESKY CUT-OFF LOW REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS UNSETTLED...BUT A TREND TOWARDS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL WEATHER BEGINS POTENTIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY OPENS WITH THE PESKY CUTOFF LOW STILL NEAR NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IT FINALLY OPENS UP...AS SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SAT
MORNING...AS ONE MORE IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE DECAYING CUTOFF
WITH A CHC SHOWERS TO START THE DAY. ANY AFTERNOON ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY WITH MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC/WPC
GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM S/SE CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SAT NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE SURGING TOWARDS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A QUICKER
PASSAGE IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM FOR THE ALY FCST AREA. THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST JUST YET. EXTREMELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST 00Z GFS /7-8C/KM/...BUT THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
HIGH CHC POPS ARE USED EAST OF THE WRN DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN DACK AND
MOHAWK VALLEY. SLIGHT CHC AND LOW CHC POPS ARE USED IN THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONT. LOWS SAT
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE U50S
TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL BE BRISK DUE TO THE STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS...AND DEEPER
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER COMMENCING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO THE MID WEEK...AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR A EXTENDED TIME OF FAIR AND BENIGN WEATHER. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK...BUT BY TUESDAY H850 TEMPS
RISE TO +3 TO +6C WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE U60S TO L70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U50S
TO M60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED TODAY.
MEANWHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
OF THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE WITH SCT SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE.

DRIZZLE AND SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE FROM KALB/KPSF SOUTH TO KPOU. VSBYS
HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. FURTHER NORTH CIGS ARE
IN THE HIGH MVFR/VFR RANGE AT KGFL...BUT THEY SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOW MVFR/IFR RANGE QUICKLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LEVELS BY 15Z-18Z.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AGAIN WITH LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KALB NORTH TO KGFL...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS WOULD RETURN LATE THIS PM AT
KPOU. IN THE MOIST AND DAMP AIR MASS KPSF WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5
KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE NE TO SE AT
6 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 TO
75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN INTENSITY MUCH OF THE TIME.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF
INCH...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH THE RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE
PROCESS OF GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY
OR ONLY SHOW SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY DAY TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR SOME SPOTTY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON HOW FAR
NORTH SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
STILL TARGETING NORTHERN NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LATEST
WATER VAPOR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS THE DIGGING/DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY, TAPPING
INTO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALSO OF NOTE ON CURRENT
UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND RADAR IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION/LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INTO INDIANS. SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY COULD MAKE INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LEAD AND
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DACKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE MOVE ON INTO TONIGHT, WHILE WE`LL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, FORCING WILL BE THE MISSING
INGREDIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
AND SHIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENN`S/KENTUCKY
BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. I`LL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING, BUT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, IT`LL BE ANOTHER TRICKY MAXT FORECAST FOR
TODAY, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES AT BOTH 10M AND
500M SHOW OUR SOURCE AIR COMES FROM COASTAL NH/ME WHERE TEMPS
YESTERDAY WERE MUCH LIKE HERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. SURFACE FLOW
DOES TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SO I THINK WE`LL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND I DON`T THINK WE`LL GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOW 50S EAST,
TO UPPER 50S WEST. LIGHT FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TONIGHT`S TEMPS MILD AS WELL, THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BEST DYNAMIC FORCING
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
VERMONT. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SUGGESTS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE TEMPERED JUST A BIT. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO BRING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST AS A STRONG
UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKING AT A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LIKE THE IDEA IN THE FORECAST OF MENTIONING SHOWERS LIKELY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND IS
REPLACED WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, BUT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR
WILL MAINLY COME FROM CIGS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR VSBY TO LOWER
TO MVFR BEING AT KSLK AND KRUT. AFTER 18Z, CIGS REMAIN LARGELY
MVFR BUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO
VFR AT KBTV AND KMSS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRI.
12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO
THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS
CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE
OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY DAY TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR SOME SPOTTY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON HOW FAR
NORTH SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
STILL TARGETING NORTHERN NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LATEST
WATER VAPOR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS THE DIGGING/DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY, TAPPING
INTO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALSO OF NOTE ON CURRENT
UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND RADAR IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION/LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INTO INDIANS. SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY COULD MAKE INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LEAD AND
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DACKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE MOVE ON INTO TONIGHT, WHILE WE`LL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, FORCING WILL BE THE MISSING
INGREDIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
AND SHIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENN`S/KENTUCKY
BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. I`LL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING, BUT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, IT`LL BE ANOTHER TRICKY MAXT FORECAST FOR
TODAY, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES AT BOTH 10M AND
500M SHOW OUR SOURCE AIR COMES FROM COASTAL NH/ME WHERE TEMPS
YESTERDAY WERE MUCH LIKE HERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. SURFACE FLOW
DOES TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SO I THINK WE`LL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND I DON`T THINK WE`LL GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOW 50S EAST,
TO UPPER 50S WEST. LIGHT FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TONIGHT`S TEMPS MILD AS WELL, THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BEST DYNAMIC FORCING
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
VERMONT. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SUGGESTS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE TEMPERED JUST A BIT. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO BRING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST AS A STRONG
UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKING AT A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LIKE THE IDEA IN THE FORECAST OF MENTIONING SHOWERS LIKELY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND IS
REPLACED WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, BUT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR
WILL MAINLY COME FROM CIGS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR VSBY TO LOWER
TO MVFR BEING AT KSLK AND KRUT. AFTER 18Z, CIGS REMAIN LARGELY
MVFR BUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO
VFR AT KBTV AND KMSS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRI.
12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO
THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS
CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE
OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 040555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMP...SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THIS UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO MENTION CLOUDY SKIES...AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE THE ENTIRE REGION IS SOCKED IN AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA. AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE
PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED TODAY.
MEANWHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
OF THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE WITH SCT SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE.

DRIZZLE AND SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE FROM KALB/KPSF SOUTH TO KPOU. VSBYS
HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. FURTHER NORTH CIGS ARE
IN THE HIGH MVFR/VFR RANGE AT KGFL...BUT THEY SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOW MVFR/IFR RANGE QUICKLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LEVELS BY 15Z-18Z.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AGAIN WITH LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KALB NORTH TO KGFL...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS WOULD RETURN LATE THIS PM AT
KPOU. IN THE MOIST AND DAMP AIR MASS KPSF WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5
KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE NE TO SE AT
6 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 040555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMP...SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THIS UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO MENTION CLOUDY SKIES...AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE THE ENTIRE REGION IS SOCKED IN AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA. AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE
PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED TODAY.
MEANWHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
OF THE REGION WILL KE
000012FA
EP THE WEATHER ACTIVE WITH SCT SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE.

DRIZZLE AND SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE FROM KALB/KPSF SOUTH TO KPOU. VSBYS
HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. FURTHER NORTH CIGS ARE
IN THE HIGH MVFR/VFR RANGE AT KGFL...BUT THEY SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOW MVFR/IFR RANGE QUICKLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LEVELS BY 15Z-18Z.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AGAIN WITH LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KALB NORTH TO KGFL...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS WOULD RETURN LATE THIS PM AT
KPOU. IN THE MOIST AND DAMP AIR MASS KPSF WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5
KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE NE TO SE AT
6 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 143 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS WE`RE LOOKING AT A CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS LIKELY ALREADY REALIZED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THERE. EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS TO BE ALONG THE INTL BORDER WHERE SOME
CLEARING STILL EXISTS RIGHT NOW, WITH TEMPS ELSEWHERE REMAINING
FAIRLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE THE FORCING
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN
THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL
BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR
VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.

AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING
THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT 
00004000
SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK
UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT
WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER
TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING.
SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT
OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, BUT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR
WILL MAINLY COME FROM CIGS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR VSBY TO LOWER
TO MVFR BEING AT KSLK AND KRUT. AFTER 18Z, CIGS REMAIN LARGELY
MVFR BUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO
VFR AT KBTV AND KMSS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRI.
12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO
THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS
CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE
OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 143 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS WE`RE LOOKING AT A CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS LIKELY ALREADY REALIZED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THERE. EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS TO BE ALONG THE INTL BORDER WHERE SOME
CLEARING STILL EXISTS RIGHT NOW, WITH TEMPS ELSEWHERE REMAINING
FAIRLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE THE FORCING
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN
THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL
BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR
VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.

AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING
THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK
UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT
WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER
TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING.
SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT
OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, BUT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR
WILL MAINLY COME FROM CIGS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR VSBY TO LOWER
TO MVFR BEING AT KSLK AND KRUT. AFTER 18Z, CIGS REMAIN LARGELY
MVFR BUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO
VFR AT KBTV AND KMSS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRI.
12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO
THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS
CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE
OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 040500
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMP...SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THIS UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO MENTION CLOUDY SKIES...AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE THE ENTIRE REGION IS SOCKED IN AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA. AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE
PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY. THESE SHOWERY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY
PERSISTENT.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 040500
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMP...SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THIS UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO MENTION CLOUDY SKIES...AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE THE ENTIRE REGION IS SOCKED IN AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA. AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE
PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE W
00004000
ITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY. THESE SHOWERY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY
PERSISTENT.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040214
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT TUESDAY...IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ADVECTING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CWA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED BY EARLY WEDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH FARTHER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HAVE NOTICED SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON
RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY MOVING TOWARD OUR NORTHERN NY AND
SOUTHERN VT ZONES...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE. ALL COVERAGE WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO CAPTURE LATEST CONDITIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS.

CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE
EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE OFF
THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC. ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE
THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN
VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.

AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING
THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK
UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT
WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER
TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING.
SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT
OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
WITH A MARINE LAYER OVER MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AT
THIS WITH MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY RETURN
OVERNIGHT TO THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS MOST AREAS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME
MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF. THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT
CHANCE MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO
THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS
CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE
OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/DEAL/SISSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 040143
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
943 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY. THESE SHOWERY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY
PERSISTENT.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
806 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN RETURNS FOR THE R
00004000
EST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 PM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR CWA IS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM AND SPREAD MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
OVER NORTHERN NY BY SUNRISE ON WEDS. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WEDS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT...WHERE QPF
AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 0.25".

FOR THIS EVENINGS UPDATE I INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND EXPANDED DEVELOPING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL NY INTO THE DACKS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES BY
06Z...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 30S MTNS TO MID 40S WARMER
VALLEYS. MAINLY LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE
EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE OFF
THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC. ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE
THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN
VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.

AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING
THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK
UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT
WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER
TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING.
SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT
OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
WITH A MARINE LAYER OVER MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AT
THIS WITH MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY RETURN
OVERNIGHT TO THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS MOST AREAS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME
MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF. THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT
CHANCE MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO
THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS
CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE
OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/DEAL/SISSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
806 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 PM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR CWA IS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM AND SPREAD MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
OVER NORTHERN NY BY SUNRISE ON WEDS. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WEDS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT...WHERE QPF
AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 0.25".

FOR THIS EVENINGS UPDATE I INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND EXPANDED DEVELOPING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL NY INTO THE DACKS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES BY
06Z...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 30S MTNS TO MID 40S WARMER
VALLEYS. MAINLY LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE
EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE OFF
THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC. ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE
THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN
VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.

AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING
THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK
UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT
WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER
TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING.
SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT
OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
WITH A MARINE LAYER OVER MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AT
THIS WITH MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY RETURN
OVERNIGHT TO THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS MOST AREAS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME
MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF. THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT
CHANCE MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO
THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS
CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE
OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/DEAL/SISSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 032325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 PM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR CWA IS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM AND SPREAD MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
OVER NORTHERN NY BY SUNRISE ON WEDS. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WEDS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT...WHERE QPF
AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 0.25".

FOR THIS EVENINGS UPDATE I INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND EXPANDED DEVELOPING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL NY INTO THE DACKS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES BY
06Z...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 30S MTNS TO MID 40S WARMER
VALLEYS. MAINLY LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE
EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE OFF
THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC. ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE
THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN
VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.

AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING
THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK
UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT
WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER
TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING.
SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT
OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS FINAL ERODE BREAKING THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. ONCE THAT INVERSION BREAKS EXPECT DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN
AND LEAD TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK. GIVEN THE LOWERED CHANCE I KEPT
MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE 18Z SUITE BUT EXPECT THEY WILL BE
INTRODUCED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHANCE MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 032324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 
0001CA9C
WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY. THESE SHOWERY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY
PERSISTENT.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 032324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY. THESE SHOWERY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY
PERSISTENT.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 032238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND THE GREAT CAPITAL DISTRICT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU
AND KPSF. HOWEVER...EVEN KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO ALL AREAS WILL INDICATE VCSH THROUGH THE
PERIOD SINCE ANY SPECIFIC BRIEF DRY PERIODS BETWEEN AREAS OF
SHOWERS TOUGH TO TIME.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF JUST INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KALB BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER THIS EVENING.  THESE SHOWERY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY PERSISTENT.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KALY 032000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARE SITUATED
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN ONTARIO
CANADA. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A MOIST S-SW FLOW HAS BEEN IN
PLACE...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS LOCATED OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND NEARBY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE REGION.

THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES START TO HEAD EASTWARD...THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS TONIGHT...ESP
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HELD INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...AND THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO THE E-SE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED AS THE FA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE A
FORECAST OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.

DRY WEATHER IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU
AND KPSF. HOWEVER...EVEN KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO ALL AREAS WILL INDICATE VCSH THROUGH THE
PERIOD SINCE ANY SPECIFIC BRIEF DRY PERIODS BETWEEN AREAS OF
SHOWERS TOUGH TO TIME.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF JUST INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KALB BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER THIS EVENING.  THESE SHOWERY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY PERSISTENT.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ALONG PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RH
VALUES WON/T FALL BELOW 55 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOT OVERLY STEADY...AND VEGETATION IN THE PROCESS OF
GREENING UP...THIS RAINFALL WON/T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR ONLY SHOW
SOME VERY MINOR RISES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE
THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS
THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC.
ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT
TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN
THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL
BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR
VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.

AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING
THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK
UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT
WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER
TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING.
SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT
OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS FINAL ERODE BREAKING THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. ONCE THAT INVERSION BREAKS EXPECT DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN
AND LEAD TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK. GIVEN THE LOWERED CHANCE I KEPT
MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE 18Z SUITE BUT EXPECT THEY WILL BE
INTRODUCED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHANCE MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE
THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS
THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEGINING TO INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC.
ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT
TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN
THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL
BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR
VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.

AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING
THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT
AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH
THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS
THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS FINAL ERODE BREAKING THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. ONCE THAT INVERSION BREAKS EXPECT DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN
AND LEAD TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK. GIVEN THE LOWERED CHANCE I
KEPT MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE 18Z SUITE BUT EXPECT THEY WILL BE
INTRODUCED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...DEAL/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031834
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
234 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER REMAINS TO BE THE TRICKY
SUBJECT FOR THE DAY. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS KEEP TEMPS
LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND WITH VIS IMAGERY NOT SHOWING A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THUS I`M NOT SURE WE
WILL BOUNCE UP TO NEAR 60 AS WE HAD IN THE FORECAST. THUS I DID
DROP TEMPS MAX TEMPS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE
THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS CHANCE FOR RAIN OR TOTAL
RAINFALL GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL
TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 850 TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT
+2C AND 925 TO ABOUT +7C TODAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN LATE. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO BRING AN LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NY BUT IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH OVER VT COULD SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST VT. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT
AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH
THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS
THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS FINAL ERODE BREAKING THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. ONCE THAT INVERSION BREAKS EXPECT DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN
AND LEAD TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK. GIVEN THE LOWERED CHANCE I
KEPT MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE 18Z SUITE BUT EXPECT THEY WILL BE
INTRODUCED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...DEAL/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031834
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
234 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER REMAINS TO BE THE TRICKY
SUBJECT FOR THE DAY. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS KEEP TEMPS
LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND WITH VIS IMAGERY NOT SHOWING A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THUS I`M NOT SURE WE
WILL BOUNCE UP TO NEAR 60 AS WE HAD IN THE FORECAST. THUS I DID
DROP TEMPS MAX TEMPS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE
THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS CHANCE FOR RAIN OR TOTAL
RAINFALL GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL
TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 850 TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT
+2C AND 925 TO ABOUT +7C TODAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN LATE. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO BRING AN LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NY BUT IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH OVER VT COULD SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST VT. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT
AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH
THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS
THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS FINAL ERODE BREAKING THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. ONCE THAT INVERSION BREAKS EXPECT DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN
AND LEAD TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK. GIVEN THE LOWERED CHANCE I
KEPT MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE 18Z SUITE BUT EXPECT THEY WILL BE
INTRODUCED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...DEAL/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 031727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND. WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NOW HEADING OUT TO SEA...STEADY
RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.  MEANWHILE...IT REMAINS
NEARLY FULLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONLY
LOCATION WHERE SOME BREAKS ARE OCCURRING ARE ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN OVERCAST. THE OVERCAST MAY BRIEFLY THIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SKY COVER WILL REMAIN TO BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST A FEW MORE BRIEF
PASSING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT IN BOTH INTENSITY AND QPF...WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH SOME HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS STUCK IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH AS WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU
AND KPSF. HOWEVER...EVEN KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO ALL AREAS WILL INDICATE VCSH THROUGH THE
PERIOD SINCE ANY SPECIFIC BRIEF DRY PERIODS BETWEEN AREAS OF SHOWERS
TOUGH TO TIME.

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE JUST SCATTERED AT BEST...SO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT JUST SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MAINLY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF JUST INTO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KALB BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER THIS EVENING.  THESE SHOWERY
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY PERSISTENT.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 031417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BRINGING
RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MORE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND. COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHING AS IT EXITS EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM WHERE THERE IS STILL WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SOME LINGERING UPPER DYNAMICS. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS RIGHT
NOW BUT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO REFORM IN THOSE
AREAS. SOME PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS OR BRIGHTENING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY THROUGH CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...
AND MAYBE TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT.

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS WITH BREAKS AND
BRIGHTENING...WHILE MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 50S MANY AREAS...MAYBE NEAR 60 WHERE
THE BREAKS AND BRIGHTENING OCCUR. MID 50S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO KPOU/KPSF INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KALB...AND WELL SOUTH OF
KGFL. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR AT
KPSF...AND LIKELY MVFR AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR AT KPOU THROUGH 15Z. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO
MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN VFR RANGE.

CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR LOOKS TO BE AT KPSF/KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
853 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 849 AM EDT TUESDAY...
CURRENT FORECAST IN IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. DENSE
FOG IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY IS STILL HOLDING ON BUT SHOULD
ERODE SHORTLY AS INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION WILL HELP TO WARM THE
SURFACE AND MIX THE FOG OUT. THE THICK STRATUS DECK OVER VERMONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY RISE AND BREAK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
INTO MID AFTERNOON, SLOWEST TO CLEAR IN VT WITH WEAK BLOCKED
UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW. LITTLE ADVECTION OF ANY SORT TODAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW- LEVELS SO IT WILL BE THE STRONG MAY SUN
THAT WILL DRIVE THE CLEARING AND MIXING OUT OF THE CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL
TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 850 TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT
+2C AND 925 TO ABOUT +7C TODAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN LATE. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO BRING AN LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NY BUT IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH OVER VT COULD SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST VT. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT
AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH
THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS
THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-AM,
GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP TO MAINLY VFR BY TUESDAY PM.
LIFR AT KMSS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING.

MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WILL
BE THINNING OUT AND MIXING OUT BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO ESPECIALLY KBTV BUT
NEAR CALM ELSEWHERE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.

AFTER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE EVENING SOME CLOUDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS ESP AT KMPV AND KSLK BY WED
MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SE AND ADVECTS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
853 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 849 AM EDT TUESDAY...
CURRENT FORECAST IN IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. DENSE
FOG IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY IS STILL HOLDING ON BUT SHOULD
ERODE SHORTLY AS INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION WILL HELP TO WARM THE
SURFACE AND MIX THE FOG OUT. THE THICK STRATUS DECK OVER VERMONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY RISE AND BREAK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
INTO MID AFTERNOON, SLOWEST TO CLEAR IN VT WITH WEAK BLOCKED
UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW. LITTLE ADVECTION OF ANY SORT TODAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW- LEVELS SO IT WILL BE THE STRONG MAY SUN
THAT WILL DRIVE THE CLEARING AND MIXING OUT OF THE CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL
TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 850 TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT
+2C AND 925 TO ABOUT +7C TODAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN LATE. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO BRING AN LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NY BUT IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH OVER VT COULD SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST VT. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT
AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH
THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS
THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-AM,
GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP TO MAINLY VFR BY TUESDAY PM.
LIFR AT KMSS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING.

MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WILL
BE THINNING OUT AND MIXING OUT BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO ESPECIALLY KBTV BUT
NEAR CALM ELSEWHERE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.

AFTER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE EVENING SOME CLOUDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS ESP AT KMPV AND KSLK BY WED
MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SE AND ADVECTS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. DENSE
FOG IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE WITH STRATUS ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG OVER VT
UNDER A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY RISE AND BREAK UP
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON, SLOWEST TO CLEAR IN VT
WITH WEAK BLOCKED UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW. LITTLE ADVECTION OF ANY SORT
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVELS SO IT WILL BE THE
STRONG MAY SUN THAT WILL DRIVE THE CLEARING AND MIXING OUT OF THE
CLOUDS.

SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL
TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 850 TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT
+2C AND 925 TO ABOUT +7C TODAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN LATE. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO BRING AN LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NY BUT IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH OVER VT COULD SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST VT. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT
AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH
THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS
THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-AM,
GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP TO MAINLY VFR BY TUESDAY PM.
LIFR AT KMSS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING.

MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WILL
BE THINNING OUT AND MIXING OUT BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO ESPECIALLY KBTV BUT
NEAR CALM ELSEWHERE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.

AFTER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE EVENING SOME CLOUDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS ESP AT KMPV AND KSLK BY WED
MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SE AND ADVECTS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 031122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BRINGING
RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MORE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 654 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE FROM THE
DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. OVER RUNNING RAINFALL/SHOWERS NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...AND AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
ACROSS SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE LIGHT RAINFALL HAS MADE IT
AS FAR NORTH AS ALBANY...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES. THE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/GFS/HRRR AS THE STEADIEST LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED IN THESE SOUTHERN
AREAS THIS MORNING.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE RAIN SHOULD DWINDLE TO ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE NRN TIER WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO
L60S. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST EXPECT 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE
BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO KPOU/KPSF INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KALB...AND WELL SOUTH OF
KGFL. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR AT
KPSF...AND LIKELY MVFR AT KALB/KPOU/KGFL. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR AT KPOU THROUGH 15Z. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO
MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN VFR RANGE.

CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR LOOKS TO BE AT KPSF/KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 031054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BRINGING
RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MORE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 654 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE FROM THE
DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. OVER RUNNING RAINFALL/SHOWERS NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...AND AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
ACROSS SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE LIGHT RAINFALL HAS MADE IT
AS FAR NORTH AS ALBANY...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES. THE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/GFS/HRRR AS THE STEADIEST LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED IN THESE SOUTHERN
AREAS THIS MORNING.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE RAIN SHOULD DWINDLE TO ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE NRN TIER WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO
L60S. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST EXPECT 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE
BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT KALB
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECTING STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR KPOU AND KPSF...WITH KALB
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KGFL. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR...LIKELY
DETERIORATING TO PREVAILING IFR BY AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER
AT KPSF MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FROM MID
MORNING ON.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 030818
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BRINGING
RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MORE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE FROM NEAR
THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. OVER RUNNING RAINFALL NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN NY
AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE RAINFALL HAS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES. THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BASED
ON THE LATEST NAM/GFS/HRRR FOR THE STEADIEST LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN TO BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED
HERE THIS MORNING.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE RAIN SHOULD DWINDLE TO ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE NRN TIER WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO
L60S. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST EXPECT 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE
BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT KALB
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECTING STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR KPOU AND KPSF...WITH KALB
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KGFL. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR...LIKELY
DETERIORATING TO PREVAILING IFR BY AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER
AT KPSF MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FROM MID
MORNING ON.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. DENSE
FOG IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE WITH STRATUS ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG OVER VT
UNDER A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY RISE AND BREAK UP
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON, SLOWEST TO CLEAR IN VT
WITH WEAK BLOCKED UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW. LITTLE ADVECTION OF ANY SORT
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVELS SO IT WILL BE THE
STRONG MAY SUN THAT WILL DRIVE THE CLEARING AND MIXING OUT OF THE
CLOUDS.

SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL
TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 850 TEMPS RISE TO
ABOUT +2 TODAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN LATE. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO BRING AN LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NY BUT IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH OVER VT COULD SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST VT. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT
AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH
THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS
THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY
AM, GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP TO MAINLY VFR BY TUESDAY
PM. LIFR AT KMSS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID
MORNING.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WINDS LIGHT
NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO ESPECIALLY KBTV BUT NEAR CALM
ELSEWHERE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

AFTER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE EVENING SOME CLOUDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS ESP AT KMPV AND KSLK BY
WED MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SE AND ADVECTS SOME
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY
BREAK.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030610
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
210 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 210 AM EDT TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. DENSE
FOG HAS FORMED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG
OVER VT UNDER A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNRISE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY RISE AND
BREAK UP MID TO LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON, SLOWEST TO CLEAR
IN VT WITH WEAK BLOCKED UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OTHERWISE NEAR CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN VERMONT
ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONG WAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN
00004000
. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY
AM, GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP TO MAINLY VFR BY TUESDAY
PM. LIFR AT KMSS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID
MORNING.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WINDS LIGHT
NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO ESPECIALLY KBTV BUT NEAR CALM
ELSEWHERE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

AFTER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE EVENING SOME CLOUDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS ESP AT KMPV AND KSLK BY
WED MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SE AND ADVECTS SOME
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY
BREAK.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 030546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A
QUICKER RETURN OF RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SE PA/MD CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS. THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL TO GET TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES THIS
MORNING /08-11Z/. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE USED...EXCEPT OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CATEGORICAL VALUES WERE USED. A
QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SE EXTREME OF THE AREA.

MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND U40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S AND L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT KALB
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECTING STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR KPOU AND KPSF...WITH KALB
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KGFL. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR...LIKELY
DETERIORATING TO PREVAILING IFR BY AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER
AT KPSF MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FROM MID
MORNING ON.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 030532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 132 AM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A
QUICKER RETURN OF RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SE PA/MD CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS. THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL TO GET TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES THIS
MORNING /08-11Z/. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE USED...EXCEPT OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CATEGORICAL VALUES WERE USED. A
QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SE EXTREME OF THE AREA.

MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND U40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S AND L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030224
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND
MATCH CURRENT OBS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT NEWPORT AND CALEDONIA AIRPORT...WITH SOME MIST AT SLK. THINKING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...MIST...AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO AREAS OF
FOG/BR LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY. STILL
ANTICIPATING TEMPS MAINLY IN TH
00004000
E MID/UPPER 30S DACKS TO MID 40S
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030224
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND
MATCH CURRENT OBS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT NEWPORT AND CALEDONIA AIRPORT...WITH SOME MIST AT SLK. THINKING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...MIST...AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO AREAS OF
FOG/BR LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY. STILL
ANTICIPATING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S DACKS TO MID 40S
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030224
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND
MATCH CURRENT OBS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT NEWPORT AND CALEDONIA AIRPORT...WITH SOME MIST AT SLK. THINKING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...MIST...AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO AREAS OF
FOG/BR LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY. STILL
ANTICIPATING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S DACKS TO MID 40S
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY 
00004000
FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030224
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND
MATCH CURRENT OBS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT NEWPORT AND CALEDONIA AIRPORT...WITH SOME MIST AT SLK. THINKING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...MIST...AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO AREAS OF
FOG/BR LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY. STILL
ANTICIPATING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S DACKS TO MID 40S
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 030121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THE STEADY RAIN HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE FA TEMPORARILY...PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST.

THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS ALREADY WORKING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR N AND W AS THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A MORE NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE LIKELY...AND BASED ON
UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO
00004000
 ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 022350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 748 PM EDT MONDAY...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM TODAY HAS
QUICKLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE PREVAILING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MATCH LATEST
OBS...ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THINKING
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY WHERE SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 022318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QU
00004000
ICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 022318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 022312
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW
COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO TH
00004000
E UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 022312
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW
COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 022220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE
00004000
 OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 022049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL
REGION..EXTENDING INTO THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD
SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW
COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MTNS. SOME
DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THE
RAIN MOVES OUT. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT
HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - WED: BECOMING
VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN
SHOWERS 
00004000
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW
COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MTNS. SOME
DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THE
RAIN MOVES OUT. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT
HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - WED: BECOMING
VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN
SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 021738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE STEADIER RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
NORTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN IS
OVER...AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE COOL MOIST
REGIME LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION. ALSO...WITH AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. SO...SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TO
THE NORTH.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY RISE ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT
LEVELS IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN AFFECTING KGFL...AND MORE RAIN UPSTREAM OF KGFL...SO PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF RAIN IS
RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AT KALB.
HOWEVER...RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KPSF AND KPOU AREAS. MOST
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IFR...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
EVEN JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALSO.

SURROUNDING AREAS ARE IFR...SO PREDOMINANT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
IFR AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT INDICATING TEMPO MVFR TO VFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR...EXCEPT
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS...LIKE WHAT IS
OCCURRING AROUND KPOU DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND.  BY
THIS EVENING...MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT SO
LIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES MUCH IF AT ALL...BUT IFR
CEILINGS COULD TREND TOWARD LIFR HEIGHTS.

CEILINGS COULD LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING IN SOME AREAS AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES KPOU AND KPSF MAINLY.
SO...INDICATING SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR AND JUST INTO
THE VFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES AND BRINGS SOME MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO KPSF
AND KPOU.

AFTER 12Z-15Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT
KPOU WHERE SOME RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
FOG...BUT WITH PREDOMINANT CLOUD COVER...NOT INDICATING PREDOMINANT
FOG TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...SHIFTING TO MAINLY WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 021738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE STEADIER RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
NORTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN IS
OVER...AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE COOL MOIST
REGIME LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION. ALSO...WITH AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. SO...SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TO
THE NORTH.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY RISE ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT
LEVELS IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-
00004000
WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN AFFECTING KGFL...AND MORE RAIN UPSTREAM OF KGFL...SO PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF RAIN IS
RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AT KALB.
HOWEVER...RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KPSF AND KPOU AREAS. MOST
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IFR...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
EVEN JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALSO.

SURROUNDING AREAS ARE IFR...SO PREDOMINANT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
IFR AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT INDICATING TEMPO MVFR TO VFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR...EXCEPT
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS...LIKE WHAT IS
OCCURRING AROUND KPOU DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND.  BY
THIS EVENING...MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT SO
LIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES MUCH IF AT ALL...BUT IFR
CEILINGS COULD TREND TOWARD LIFR HEIGHTS.

CEILINGS COULD LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING IN SOME AREAS AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES KPOU AND KPSF MAINLY.
SO...INDICATING SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR AND JUST INTO
THE VFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES AND BRINGS SOME MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO KPSF
AND KPOU.

AFTER 12Z-15Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT
KPOU WHERE SOME RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
FOG...BUT WITH PREDOMINANT CLOUD COVER...NOT INDICATING PREDOMINANT
FOG TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...SHIFTING TO MAINLY WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER
WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 118 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS.
RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED
TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN
5 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A
5-10 DEGREES TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. COOL HIGHS AGAIN
TODAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ALONG WITH SOME BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. COULD ALSO
BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MTNS. SOME
DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THE
RAIN MOVES OUT. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT
HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - WED: BECOMING VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES/SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING
RAIN BY NOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1008 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS.
STILL THINK RAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BY ABOUT
NOON TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED
TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN
5 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A
5-10 DEGREES TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. COOL HIGHS AGAIN
TODAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ALONG WITH SOME BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. COULD ALSO
BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL
OBSCURE MTNS.

CEILINGS/VIS INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KMSS/KSLK AND COULD HAPPEN
JUST ABOUT AT ANY TERMINAL TODAY ESPECIALLY 17-21Z WITH RAIN
EXPECTED. NOTED SOME THUNDER IN THE RAIN OVER WESTERN NY BUT NOT
EXPECTING I
00004000
T TO GET UP HERE. RAIN INTENSITY MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN NY AND IF IT GOES MODERATE VIS MAY DROP TO NEAR IFR.

FLOW TURNS FROM LIGHT NE/SE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AFT 00Z WITH TREND TOWARD VFR AT KMSS/KPBG
BY 03-06Z BUT PERSISTENT MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR LCL IFR CIGS. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW
CEILINGS.
TUE - WED: BECOMING VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 021321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...HEADED FOR THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW
CT THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AND THUNDER BASED
ON RADAR AND SATELLLITE TRENDS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AQND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS
WELL...DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN
AND FOG AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER AT KPOU TODAY. KPOU MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND FOG LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. ON
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING
RAIN BY NOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED
TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN
5 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN TAPERING
OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A 5-10 DEGREES
TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. COOL HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ALONG WITH SOME BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. COULD ALSO
BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL
OBSCURE MTNS.

CEILINGS/VIS INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KMSS/KSLK AND COULD HAPPEN
JUST ABOUT AT ANY TERMINAL TODAY ESPECIALLY 17-21Z WITH RAIN
EXPECTED. NOTED SOME THUNDER IN THE RAIN OVER WESTERN NY BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO GET UP HERE. RAIN INTENSITY MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN NY AND IF IT GOES MODERATE VIS MAY DROP TO NEAR IFR.

FLOW TURNS FROM LIGHT NE/SE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AFT 00Z WITH TREND TOWARD VFR AT KMSS/KPBG
BY 03-06Z BUT PERSISTENT MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR LCL IFR CIGS. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW
CEILINGS.
TUE - WED: BECOMING VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 021031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 631 AM EDT...A COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT- WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH N/NE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE PA/MD/WV BORDER
WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS...RAP AND HRRR
OUTPUT...SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER ERN OH
MOVING INTO N-CNTRL PA. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS W-CNTRL NY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO ERN NY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAIN SHOULD
ENCOMPASS ALL OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND
THEN THE ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE...THOUGH A POCKET OF STEEPER
MID LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE...AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES OF 0 TO
-2C ON THE LATEST NAM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PLACED IN THE GRIDS NOON TO THE MID
PM OVER THE WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
NEAR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

000022CA

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN
AND FOG AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER AT KPOU TODAY. KPOU MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND FOG LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. ON
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA

      
      

  
    
  
  
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