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0000C000000
FXUS61 KALY 061137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS.

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
HOWEVER IT WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ALOFT A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE IN DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY WITH A BITTERLY COLD START. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE UNDER SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NORMAL HIGH
FOR ALBANY NY FOR MARCH 6TH IS 40 DEGREES.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT CAUSING THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

MID AND LOW LEVELS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD
BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER LOW SAT
     THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE 500HPA FLOW CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. TUES THE FCA IS IN BTWN SYSTEMS AS THE N BRANCH SYSTEM
IS WELL NW OF FCA..AND S BRANCH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY W/PC CONDS AND TEMPS NR OR EVEN A FEW
DEG ABV NORMAL.

TUES NT INTO WED THE GFS DIGS A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA SHORT WV
AND A TRANSIENT TROF OVER NE AND DROPS A STRONGER CDFNT SE
THROUGH FCA. THE REST OF THE MDL SUITE (ECMWF/GEM/HPC) KEEP BOTH
THE FAST FLOW...MOST OF THE 500HPA ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WELL N OF FCA WED. IF IT PRODUCES ANY PCPN IT WILL BE
LIGHT AS IT TOO REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TWRD THIS SOLUTION.

THURS INTO FRI THE TROF OVER THE EAST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE
COLD CORE RETREATS NE INTO QB AND THE N ATLC. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD 500HPA RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ABV NORMALS INTO
THE MID 30 TO MID 40S.

WILL POPULATE EFP WITH HPC GRIDS AS THEY ARE IN THE CONSENSUS OF
GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

WE STARTING OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 061137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS.

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
HOWEVER IT WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ALOFT A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE IN DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY WITH A BITTERLY COLD START. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE UNDER SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NORMAL HIGH
FOR ALBANY NY FOR MARCH 6TH IS 40 DEGREES.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT CAUSING THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

MID AND LOW LEVELS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD
BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER LOW SAT
     THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE 500HPA FLOW CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. TUES THE FCA IS IN BTWN SYSTEMS AS THE N BRANCH SYSTEM
IS WELL NW OF FCA..AND S BRANCH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY W/PC CONDS AND TEMPS NR OR EVEN A FEW
DEG ABV NORMAL.

TUES NT INTO WED THE GFS DIGS A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA SHORT WV
AND A TRANSIENT TROF OVER NE AND DROPS A STRONGER CDFNT SE
THROUGH FCA. THE REST OF THE MDL SUITE (ECMWF/GEM/HPC) KEEP BOTH
THE FAST FLOW...MOST OF THE 500HPA ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WELL N OF FCA WED. IF IT PRODUCES ANY PCPN IT WILL BE
LIGHT AS IT TOO REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TWRD THIS SOLUTION.

THURS INTO FRI THE TROF OVER THE EAST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE
COLD CORE RETREATS NE INTO QB AND THE N ATLC. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD 500HPA RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ABV NORMALS INTO
THE MID 30 TO MID 40S.

WILL POPULATE EFP WITH HPC GRIDS AS THEY ARE IN THE CONSENSUS OF
GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

WE STARTING OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
608 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A FRIGID
START THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
READINGS AT 08Z INCLUDE -27F AT CANAAN VT...-25F AT SARANAC LAKE
NY...AND -6F AT BTV. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SLIDES TO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SAT WHILE MAINTAINING DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC
RIDGE...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE AFTN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW.
OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS GIVEN FULL SUN AND INCREASING MARCH SUN
ANGLE...BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL 14-18DEG BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW
WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T
BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS
NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE
WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT
A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F.

BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW.

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MID TO
LATE MORNING AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KMSS UP TO 20KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KMSS AND KSLK STARTING AROUND 09Z/10Z AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO AFFECT TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
608 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A FRIGID
START THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
READINGS AT 08Z INCLUDE -27F AT CANAAN VT...-25F AT SARANAC LAKE
NY...AND -6F AT BTV. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SLIDES TO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SAT WHILE MAINTAINING DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC
RIDGE...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE AFTN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW.
OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS GIVEN FULL SUN AND INCREASING MARCH SUN
ANGLE...BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL 14-18DEG BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW
WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T
BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS
NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE
WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT
A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F.

BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW.

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MID TO
LATE MORNING AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KMSS UP TO 20KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KMSS AND KSLK STARTING AROUND 09Z/10Z AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO AFFECT TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
608 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A FRIGID
START THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
READINGS AT 08Z INCLUDE -27F AT CANAAN VT...-25F AT SARANAC LAKE
NY...AND -6F AT BTV. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SLIDES TO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SAT WHILE MAINTAINING DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC
RIDGE...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE AFTN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW.
OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS GIVEN FULL SUN AND INCREASING MARCH SUN
ANGLE...BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL 14-18DEG BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW
WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T
BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS
NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE
WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT
A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F.

BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW.

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MID TO
LATE MORNING AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KMSS UP TO 20KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KMSS AND KSLK STARTING AROUND 09Z/10Z AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO AFFECT TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
608 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A FRIGID
START THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
READINGS AT 08Z INCLUDE -27F AT CANAAN VT...-25F AT SARANAC LAKE
NY...AND -6F AT BTV. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SLIDES TO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SAT WHILE MAINTAINING DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC
RIDGE...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE AFTN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW.
OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS GIVEN FULL SUN AND INCREASING MARCH SUN
ANGLE...BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL 14-18DEG BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW
WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T
BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS
NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE
WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT
A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F.

BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW.

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MID TO
LATE MORNING AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KMSS UP TO 20KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KMSS AND KSLK STARTING AROUND 09Z/10Z AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO AFFECT TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
608 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A FRIGID
START THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
READINGS AT 08Z INCLUDE -27F AT CANAAN VT...-25F AT SARANAC LAKE
NY...AND -6F AT BTV. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SLIDES TO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SAT WHILE MAINTAINING DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC
RIDGE...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE AFTN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW.
OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS GIVEN FULL SUN AND INCREASING MARCH SUN
ANGLE...BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL 14-18DEG BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW
WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T
BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS
NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE
WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT
A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F.

BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW.

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MID TO
LATE MORNING AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KMSS UP TO 20KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KMSS AND KSLK STARTING AROUND 09Z/10Z AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO AFFECT TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 061108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
608 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A FRIGID
START THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
READINGS AT 08Z INCLUDE -27F AT CANAAN VT...-25F AT SARANAC LAKE
NY...AND -6F AT BTV. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SLIDES TO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SAT WHILE MAINTAINING DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC
RIDGE...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE AFTN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW.
OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS GIVEN FULL SUN AND INCREASING MARCH SUN
ANGLE...BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL 14-18DEG BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW
WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T
BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS
NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE
WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT
A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F.

BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW.

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MID TO
LATE MORNING AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KMSS UP TO 20KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KMSS AND KSLK STARTING AROUND 09Z/10Z AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO AFFECT TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 060838
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND
WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ALOFT A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY LATE IN DAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY WITH A BITTERLY COLD START. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE UNDER SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NORMAL HIGH
FOR ALBANY NY FOR MARCH 6TH IS 40 DEGREES.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT CAUSING THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

MID AND LOW LEVELS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. IT WILL 
00004000
NOT BE AS COLD
BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER LOW SAT
     THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE 500HPA FLOW CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. TUES THE FCA IS IN BTWN SYSTEMS AS THE N BRANCH SYSTEM
IS WELL NW OF FCA..AND S BRANCH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY W/PC CONDS AND TEMPS NR OR EVEN A FEW
DEG ABV NORMAL.

TUES NT INTO WED THE GFS DIGS A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA SHORT WV
AND A TRANSIENT TROF OVER NE AND DROPS A STRONGER CDFNT SE
THROUGH FCA. THE REST OF THE MDL SUITE (ECMWF/GEM/HPC) KEEP BOTH
THE FAST FLOW...MOST OF THE 500HPA ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WELL N OF FCA WED. IF IT PRODUCES ANY PCPN IT WILL BE
LIGHT AS IT TOO REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TWRD THIS SOLUTION.

THURS INTO FRI THE TROF OVER THE EAST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE
COLD CORE RETREATS NE INTO QB AND THE N ATLC. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD 500HPA RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ABV NORMALS INTO
THE MID 30 TO MID 40S.

WILL POPULATE EFP WITH HPC GRIDS AS THEY ARE IN THE CONSENSUS OF
GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
T THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

WE STARTING OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z/SATURDAY
AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 060838
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND
WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ALOFT A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY LATE IN DAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY WITH A BITTERLY COLD START. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE UNDER SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NORMAL HIGH
FOR ALBANY NY FOR MARCH 6TH IS 40 DEGREES.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT CAUSING THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

MID AND LOW LEVELS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD
BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER LOW SAT
     THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE 500HPA FLOW CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. TUES THE FCA IS IN BTWN SYSTEMS AS THE N BRANCH SYSTEM
IS WELL NW OF FCA..AND S BRANCH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY W/PC CONDS AND TEMPS NR OR EVEN A FEW
DEG ABV NORMAL.

TUES NT INTO WED THE GFS DIGS A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA SHORT WV
AND A TRANSIENT TROF OVER NE AND DROPS A STRONGER CDFNT SE
THROUGH FCA. THE REST OF THE MDL SUITE (ECMWF/GEM/HPC) KEEP BOTH
THE FAST FLOW...MOST OF THE 500HPA ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WELL N OF FCA WED. IF IT PRODUCES ANY PCPN IT WILL BE
LIGHT AS IT TOO REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TWRD THIS SOLUTION.

THURS INTO FRI THE TROF OVER THE EAST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE
COLD CORE RETREATS NE INTO QB AND THE N ATLC. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD 500HPA RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ABV NORMALS INTO
THE MID 30 TO MID 40S.

WILL POPULATE EFP WITH HPC GRIDS AS THEY ARE IN THE CONSENSUS OF
GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
T THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

WE STARTING OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z/SATURDAY
AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A FRIGID
START THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
READINGS AT 08Z INCLUDE -27F AT CANAAN VT...-25F AT SARANAC LAKE
NY...AND -6F AT BTV. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SLIDES TO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SAT WHILE MAINTAINING DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC
RIDGE...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE AFTN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW.
OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS GIVEN FULL SUN AND INCREASING MARCH SUN
ANGLE...BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL 14-18DEG BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW
WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T
BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS
NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE
WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT
A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F.

BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW.

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK
00004000
 AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A FRIGID
START THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.
READINGS AT 08Z INCLUDE -27F AT CANAAN VT...-25F AT SARANAC LAKE
NY...AND -6F AT BTV. SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SLIDES TO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SAT WHILE MAINTAINING DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC
RIDGE...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE AFTN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW.
OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS GIVEN FULL SUN AND INCREASING MARCH SUN
ANGLE...BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL 14-18DEG BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW
WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T
BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS
NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE
WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT
A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F.

BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW.

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 060827
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 11 DEGREES AT
ALBANY AND 17 AT POUGHKEEPSIE AT MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER LOW SAT
...THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE 500HPA FLOW CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. TUES THE FCA IS IN BTWN SYSTEMS AS THE N BRANCH SYSTEM
IS WELL NW OF FCA..AND S BRANCH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY W/PC CONDS AND TEMPS NR OR EVEN A FEW
DEG ABV NORMAL.

TUES NT INTO WED THE GFS DIGS A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA SHORT WV
AND A TRANSIENT TROF OVER NE AND DROPS A STRONGER CDFNT SE
THROUGH FCA. THE REST OF THE MDL SUITE (ECMWF/GEM/HPC) KEEP BOTH
THE FAST FLOW...MOST OF THE 500HPA ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WELL N OF FCA WED. IF IT PRODUCES ANY PCPN IT WILL BE
LIGHT AS IT TOO REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TWRD THIS SOLUTION.

THURS INTO FRI THE TROF OVER THE EAST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE
COLD CORE RETREATS NE INTO QB AND THE N ATLC. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD 500HPA RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ABV NORMALS INTO
THE MID 30 TO MID 40S.

WILL POPULATE EFP WITH HPC GRIDS AS THEY ARE IN THE CONSENSUS OF
GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 060827
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 11 DEGREES AT
ALBANY AND 17 AT POUGHKEEPSIE AT MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER LOW SAT
...THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE 500HPA FLOW CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. TUES THE FCA IS IN BTWN SYSTEMS AS THE N BRANCH SYSTEM
IS WELL NW OF FCA..AND S BRANCH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY W/PC CONDS AND TEMPS NR OR EVEN A FEW
DEG ABV NORMAL.

TUES NT INTO WED THE GFS DIGS A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA SHORT WV
AND A TRANSIENT TROF OVER NE AND DROPS A STRONGER CDFNT SE
THROUGH FCA. THE REST OF THE MDL SUITE (ECMWF/GEM/HPC) KEEP BOTH
THE FAST FLOW...
00014000
MOST OF THE 500HPA ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WELL N OF FCA WED. IF IT PRODUCES ANY PCPN IT WILL BE
LIGHT AS IT TOO REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TWRD THIS SOLUTION.

THURS INTO FRI THE TROF OVER THE EAST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE
COLD CORE RETREATS NE INTO QB AND THE N ATLC. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD 500HPA RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ABV NORMALS INTO
THE MID 30 TO MID 40S.

WILL POPULATE EFP WITH HPC GRIDS AS THEY ARE IN THE CONSENSUS OF
GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 060827
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 11 DEGREES AT
ALBANY AND 17 AT POUGHKEEPSIE AT MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER LOW SAT
...THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE 500HPA FLOW CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. TUES THE FCA IS IN BTWN SYSTEMS AS THE N BRANCH SYSTEM
IS WELL NW OF FCA..AND S BRANCH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY W/PC CONDS AND TEMPS NR OR EVEN A FEW
DEG ABV NORMAL.

TUES NT INTO WED THE GFS DIGS A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA SHORT WV
AND A TRANSIENT TROF OVER NE AND DROPS A STRONGER CDFNT SE
THROUGH FCA. THE REST OF THE MDL SUITE (ECMWF/GEM/HPC) KEEP BOTH
THE FAST FLOW...MOST OF THE 500HPA ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WELL N OF FCA WED. IF IT PRODUCES ANY PCPN IT WILL BE
LIGHT AS IT TOO REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TWRD THIS SOLUTION.

THURS INTO FRI THE TROF OVER THE EAST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE
COLD CORE RETREATS NE INTO QB AND THE N ATLC. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD 500HPA RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ABV NORMALS INTO
THE MID 30 TO MID 40S.

WILL POPULATE EFP WITH HPC GRIDS AS THEY ARE IN THE CONSENSUS OF
GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 060827
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 11 DEGREES AT
ALBANY AND 17 AT POUGHKEEPSIE AT MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER LOW SAT
...THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE 500HPA FLOW CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. TUES THE FCA IS IN BTWN SYSTEMS AS THE N BRANCH SYSTEM
IS WELL NW OF FCA..AND S BRANCH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY W/PC CONDS AND TEMPS NR OR EVEN A FEW
DEG ABV NORMAL.

TUES NT INTO WED THE GFS DIGS A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA SHORT WV
AND A TRANSIENT TROF OVER NE AND DROPS A STRONGER CDFNT SE
THROUGH FCA. THE REST OF THE MDL SUITE (ECMWF/GEM/HPC) KEEP BOTH
THE FAST FLOW...MOST OF THE 500HPA ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WELL N OF FCA WED. IF IT PRODUCES ANY PCPN IT WILL BE
LIGHT AS IT TOO REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TWRD THIS SOLUTION.

THURS INTO FRI THE TROF OVER THE EAST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE
COLD CORE RETREATS NE INTO QB AND THE N ATLC. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD 500HPA RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ABV NORMALS INTO
THE MID 30 TO MID 40S.

WILL POPULATE EFP WITH HPC GRIDS AS THEY ARE IN THE CONSENSUS OF
GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 060658
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 11 DEGREES AT
ALBANY AND 17 AT POUGHKEEPSIE AT MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER
LOW SAT NT...THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUN WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS... FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060658
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 11 DEGREES AT
ALBANY AND 17 AT POUGHKEEPSIE AT MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER
LOW SAT NT...THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUN WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS... FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...DESPITE A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 11 DEGREES AT
ALBANY AND 17 AT POUGHKEEPSIE AT MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...DESPITE A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 11 DEGREES AT
ALBANY AND 17 AT POUGHKEEPSIE AT MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...DESPITE A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 11 DEGREES AT
ALBANY AND 17 AT POUGHKEEPSIE AT MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEMS MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...DESPITE A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY 11 DEGREES AT
ALBANY AND 17 AT POUGHKEEPSIE AT MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE.
ALOFT BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1238 AM EST FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOOKING AT LOW
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST SECTIONS INCLUDING AROUND
-20F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND COLDER VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT AND
-3F TO -8F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1238 AM EST FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOOKING AT LOW
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST SECTIONS INCLUDING AROUND
-20F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND COLDER VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT AND
-3F TO -8F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1238 AM EST FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOOKING AT LOW
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST SECTIONS INCLUDING AROUND
-20F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND COLDER VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT AND
-3F TO -8F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1238 AM EST FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOOKING AT LOW
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST SECTIONS INCLUDING AROUND
-20F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND COLDER VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT AND
-3F TO -8F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESUL
00004000
TING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 060301
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING CLIPPERS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...DESPITE A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ONLY REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN THIS AREA SHOULD
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT STILL AROUND 20 OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS PERSIST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME ADDED
LOW LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE.

THE COMBINATION OF WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A SNOWPACK IN PLACE...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE THEREFORE
SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS OF 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME
-5 TO -10 MINS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS.
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS OF -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRODNACKS. HOWEVER...SUCH LOW MIN TEMPS DEPEND ON IF THE WINDS
DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD WINDS PERSIST A BIT LONGER...
WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD RESULT. ALSO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
LOWEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS.
000006DA
..
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY LATER TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE END OF THETAF PERIOD AT 00Z
SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY INT HE TAF PERIOD...WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL D
00004000
OMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060301
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING CLIPPERS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...DESPITE A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ONLY REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN THIS AREA SHOULD
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT STILL AROUND 20 OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS PERSIST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME ADDED
LOW LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE.

THE COMBINATION OF WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A SNOWPACK IN PLACE...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE THEREFORE
SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS OF 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME
-5 TO -10 MINS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS.
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS OF -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRODNACKS. HOWEVER...SUCH LOW MIN TEMPS DEPEND ON IF THE WINDS
DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD WINDS PERSIST A BIT LONGER...
WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD RESULT. ALSO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
LOWEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY LATER TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE END OF THETAF PERIOD AT 00Z
SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY INT HE TAF PERIOD...WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060301
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING CLIPPERS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...DESPITE A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ONLY REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN THIS AREA SHOULD
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT STILL AROUND 20 OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS PERSIST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME ADDED
LOW LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE.

THE COMBINATION OF WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A SNOWPACK IN PLACE...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE THEREFORE
SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS OF 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME
-5 TO -10 MINS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS.
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS OF -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRODNACKS. HOWEVER...SUCH LOW MIN TEMPS DEPEND ON IF THE WINDS
DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD WINDS PERSIST A BIT LONGER...
WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD RESULT. ALSO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
LOWEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY LATER TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE END OF THETAF PERIOD AT 00Z
SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY INT HE TAF PERIOD...WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY.
00004000
..NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060301
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING CLIPPERS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...DESPITE A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ONLY REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN THIS AREA SHOULD
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT STILL AROUND 20 OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUDS PERSIST.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME ADDED
LOW LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE.

THE COMBINATION OF WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A SNOWPACK IN PLACE...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE THEREFORE
SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS OF 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME
-5 TO -10 MINS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS.
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS OF -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRODNACKS. HOWEVER...SUCH LOW MIN TEMPS DEPEND ON IF THE WINDS
DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD WINDS PERSIST A BIT LONGER...
WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD RESULT. ALSO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
LOWEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY LATER TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE END OF THETAF PERIOD AT 00Z
SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY INT HE TAF PERIOD...WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060246
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
946 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060246
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
946 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME L
00004000
IGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 060246
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
946 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 060003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING CLIPPERS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...DESPITE A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE MAY
CONTRIBUTE.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE. WE STILL EXPECT BRISK CONDITIONS WELL INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY GUSTING INTO THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
THEN...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A SNOWPACK IN PLACE COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESP RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH
THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS OF 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME -5 TO -10
MINS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY
COLDER MINS OF -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRODNACKS.
AGAIN...SUCH LOW MIN TEMPS DEPEND ON IF THE WINDS DROP OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD WINDS PERSIST A BIT LONGER...WARMER MIN TEMPS
WOULD RESULT. ALSO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...NO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ARE INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY LATER TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE END OF THETAF PERIOD AT 00Z
SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY INT HE TAF PERIOD...WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING CLIPPERS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...DESPITE A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE MAY
CONTRIBUTE.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE. WE STILL EXPECT BRISK CONDITIONS WELL INTO THIS
E
00004000
VENING...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY GUSTING INTO THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
THEN...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A SNOWPACK IN PLACE COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESP RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH
THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS OF 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME -5 TO -10
MINS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY
COLDER MINS OF -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRODNACKS.
AGAIN...SUCH LOW MIN TEMPS DEPEND ON IF THE WINDS DROP OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD WINDS PERSIST A BIT LONGER...WARMER MIN TEMPS
WOULD RESULT. ALSO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...NO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ARE INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY LATER TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE END OF THETAF PERIOD AT 00Z
SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY INT HE TAF PERIOD...WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 060003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING CLIPPERS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...DESPITE A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE MAY
CONTRIBUTE.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE. WE STILL EXPECT BRISK CONDITIONS WELL INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY GUSTING INTO THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
THEN...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A SNOWPACK IN PLACE COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESP RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH
THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS OF 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME -5 TO -10
MINS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY
COLDER MINS OF -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRODNACKS.
AGAIN...SUCH LOW MIN TEMPS DEPEND ON IF THE WINDS DROP OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD WINDS PERSIST A BIT LONGER...WARMER MIN TEMPS
WOULD RESULT. ALSO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...NO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ARE INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY LATER TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE END OF THETAF PERIOD AT 00Z
SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY INT HE TAF PERIOD...WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 636 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL
DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS
OUR CWA...UNDER THE
00004000
SE CONDITIONS...EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM -20F AT
SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT LAWRENCE/MOST OF
CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COLDEST VALUES
WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 636 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL
DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS
OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM -20F AT
SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT LAWRENCE/MOST OF
CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COLDEST VALUES
WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 636 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL
DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS
OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM -20F AT
SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT LAWRENCE/MOST OF
CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COLDEST VALUES
WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

000
FXUS6
00004000
1 KBTV 052336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 636 PM EST THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL
DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS
OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM -20F AT
SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT LAWRENCE/MOST OF
CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COLDEST VALUES
WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H
AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT
MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM -20F AT SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT
LAWRENCE/MOST OF CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COLDEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H
AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT
MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM -20F AT SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT
LAWRENCE/MOST OF CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COLDEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS
00004000
 TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

000
FXUS61 KALY 052147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING CLIPPERS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...DESPITE A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EST...THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
WAVE REMAINS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DESPITE A THICK MID
LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY WHICH EXTENDS WELL N AND W ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 20S WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...WITH MAINLY TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS HIGHER PEAKS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

WINDS REMAIN A BIT BRISK...FROM THE NW TO N AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS IN CHANNELED VALLEY AREAS.

FOR THE MOST PART...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL LAKE MOISTURE MAY
CONTRIBUTE.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE. WE STILL EXPECT BRISK CONDITIONS WELL INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY GUSTING INTO THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
THEN...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A SNOWPACK IN PLACE COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESP RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE THEREFORE SIDED WITH
THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS OF 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME -5 TO -10
MINS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY
COLDER MINS OF -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRODNACKS.
AGAIN...SUCH LOW MIN TEMPS DEPEND ON IF THE WINDS DROP OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD WINDS PERSIST A BIT LONGER...WARMER MIN TEMPS
WOULD RESULT. ALSO...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...NO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ARE INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
DEEP...DRY AIR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ANY THICKER CLOUDS
AND PRECIP FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO...THE DAY SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY...BEFORE INCREASING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND 15-20 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER TRICKY CALL ON POTENTIAL MIN TEMPS.
AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY THINNING. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME ADDED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HOW MUCH TIME ELAPSES BETWEEN
THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW LOW TEMPS CAN
GET...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD MIN TEMPS WILL EXIST GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION...ONE LATE SAT...AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH
SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAK SURGES OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VT...WHERE CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE WEEKEND TOTAL...AND
GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH FURTHER S AND E. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE OVERALL THIS WEEKEND...WITH SAT MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS. THEN...SUN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIELD
CO...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP BOOST TEMPS
UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO RECENT CONDITIONS...
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. HIGHS MONDAY 30 TO 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE IN A LONG TIME THAT TEMPS MAY REACH 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY NY WAS BACK
ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT IT WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4TH...AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA IT WAS ON
DECEMBER 25TH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/GJM
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H
AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT
MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM -20F AT SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT
LAWRENCE/MOST OF CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COLDEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-NORTH WINDS OF
8-15KTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHED FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H
AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT
MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM -20F AT SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT
LAWRENCE/MOST OF CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COLDEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO 
00004000
M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-NORTH WINDS OF
8-15KTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHED FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H
AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT
MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM -20F AT SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT
LAWRENCE/MOST OF CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COLDEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-NORTH WINDS OF
8-15KTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHED FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H
AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT
MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM -20F AT SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT
LAWRENCE/MOST OF CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COLDEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-NORTH WINDS OF
8-15KTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHED FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H
AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT
MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM -20F AT SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT
LAWRENCE/MOST OF CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COLDEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACRO
00004000
SS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-NORTH WINDS OF
8-15KTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHED FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATION BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H
AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT
MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM -20F AT SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT
LAWRENCE/MOST OF CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
COLDEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-NORTH WINDS OF
8-15KTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHED FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE
AROUND 7 AM. EARLIER SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY WERE UNDER AN INCH.
IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ALONG
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DISPLACING THE SNOWFLAKES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT RADAR ECHOES SUGGEST ALOFT...ARE PREVENTING MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS.

IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANY ECHOES ALOFT ARE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EVEN FARTHER S AND E. SO...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COS...NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...COMPOSED OF MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE
AROUND 7 AM. EARLIER SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY WERE UNDER AN INCH.
IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ALONG
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DISPLACING THE SNOWFLAKES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT RADAR ECHOES SUGGEST ALOFT...ARE PREVENTING MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS.

IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANY ECHOES ALOFT ARE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EVEN FARTHER S AND E. SO...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COS...NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...COMPOSED OF MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...S
00004000
O SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE
AROUND 7 AM. EARLIER SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY WERE UNDER AN INCH.
IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ALONG
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DISPLACING THE SNOWFLAKES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT RADAR ECHOES SUGGEST ALOFT...ARE PREVENTING MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS.

IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANY ECHOES ALOFT ARE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EVEN FARTHER S AND E. SO...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COS...NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...COMPOSED OF MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE
AROUND 7 AM. EARLIER SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY WERE UNDER AN INCH.
IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ALONG
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DISPLACING THE SNOWFLAKES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT RADAR ECHOES SUGGEST ALOFT...ARE PREVENTING MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS.

IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANY ECHOES ALOFT ARE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EVEN FARTHER S AND E. SO...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COS...NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...COMPOSED OF MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER
00004000
 AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE
AROUND 7 AM. EARLIER SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY WERE UNDER AN INCH.
IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ALONG
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DISPLACING THE SNOWFLAKES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT RADAR ECHOES SUGGEST ALOFT...ARE PREVENTING MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS.

IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANY ECHOES ALOFT ARE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EVEN FARTHER S AND E. SO...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COS...NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...COMPOSED OF MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE
AROUND 7 AM. EARLIER SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY WERE UNDER AN INCH.
IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ALONG
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DISPLACING THE SNOWFLAKES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT RADAR ECHOES SUGGEST ALOFT...ARE PREVENTING MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS.

IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANY ECHOES ALOFT ARE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EVEN FARTHER S AND E. SO...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COS...NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...COMPOSED OF MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE
AROUND 7 AM. EARLIER SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY WERE UNDER AN INCH.
IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ALONG
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DISPLACING THE SNOWFLAKES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT RADAR ECHOES SUGGEST ALOFT...ARE PREVENTING MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS.

IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANY ECHOES ALOFT ARE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EVEN FARTHER S AND E. SO...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COS...NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...COMPOSED OF MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLE
00004000
YS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE
AROUND 7 AM. EARLIER SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY WERE UNDER AN INCH.
IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ALONG
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DISPLACING THE SNOWFLAKES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT RADAR ECHOES SUGGEST ALOFT...ARE PREVENTING MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS.

IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANY ECHOES ALOFT ARE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EVEN FARTHER S AND E. SO...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COS...NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...COMPOSED OF MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE
AROUND 7 AM. EARLIER SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY WERE UNDER AN INCH.
IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ALONG
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DISPLACING THE SNOWFLAKES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT RADAR ECHOES SUGGEST ALOFT...ARE PREVENTING MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS.

IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANY ECHOES ALOFT ARE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EVEN FARTHER S AND E. SO...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COS...NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...COMPOSED OF MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSD
00004000
AY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE
AROUND 7 AM. EARLIER SNOWFALL AMTS GENERALLY WERE UNDER AN INCH.
IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ALONG
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DISPLACING THE SNOWFLAKES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT RADAR ECHOES SUGGEST ALOFT...ARE PREVENTING MUCH SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS.

IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANY ECHOES ALOFT ARE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EVEN FARTHER S AND E. SO...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COS...NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...COMPOSED OF MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
AND OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KPOU AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPOU
BUT WILL KEEP VCSH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AND HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER IN. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SLATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR CALM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST THURSDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST TEMPS
DOWN AGAIN BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR FA. CURRENT TEMP HERE AT
BTV IS ONLY 12F...WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES
BETWEEN 0F AND -10F.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH NASHVILLE VT WEB CAM SHOWING A BRIEF
SNOW SQUALL WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM SUGARBUSH TO STOWE TO
JAY PEAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES ASSOCIATED WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP NEAR
-22C BY 18Z THIS AFTN...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS TO NEAR 10F SLK TO 15F MSS TO UPPER TEENS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND LOWER TO MID 20S LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE COLD AIR WILL
TAKE THE LONGEST TO ARRIVE. HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES TO MATCH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-NORTH WINDS OF
8-15KTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHED FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST THURSDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST TEMPS
DOWN AGAIN BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR FA. CURRENT TEMP HERE AT
BTV IS ONLY 12F...WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY THIS EV
00004000
ENING. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES
BETWEEN 0F AND -10F.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH NASHVILLE VT WEB CAM SHOWING A BRIEF
SNOW SQUALL WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM SUGARBUSH TO STOWE TO
JAY PEAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES ASSOCIATED WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP NEAR
-22C BY 18Z THIS AFTN...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS TO NEAR 10F SLK TO 15F MSS TO UPPER TEENS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND LOWER TO MID 20S LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE COLD AIR WILL
TAKE THE LONGEST TO ARRIVE. HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES TO MATCH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-NORTH WINDS OF
8-15KTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHED FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1219 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST THURSDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST TEMPS
DOWN AGAIN BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR FA. CURRENT TEMP HERE AT
BTV IS ONLY 12F...WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES
BETWEEN 0F AND -10F.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH NASHVILLE VT WEB CAM SHOWING A BRIEF
SNOW SQUALL WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM SUGARBUSH TO STOWE TO
JAY PEAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES ASSOCIATED WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP NEAR
-22C BY 18Z THIS AFTN...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS TO NEAR 10F SLK TO 15F MSS TO UPPER TEENS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND LOWER TO MID 20S LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE COLD AIR WILL
TAKE THE LONGEST TO ARRIVE. HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES TO MATCH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KPBG
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW FLOW. WINDS OF 8-15KTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT
KMPV. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING, FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 051432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY LAYERS ALOFT SEEN IN AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE PREVENTING SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AROUND KPOU BUT SNOW FALLING JUST SOUTH
AND EAST...IN OTHER AREAS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
SO...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW CHANCES TO REDUCE CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ALSO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD MAINLY
STEADY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...AND THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL
LATER TODAY.

THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT TODAY AND IS
BELOW...

SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEP
00004000
SIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU
AND THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ALSO
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE THE POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY LAYERS ALOFT SEEN IN AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE PREVENTING SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AROUND KPOU BUT SNOW FALLING JUST SOUTH
AND EAST...IN OTHER AREAS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
SO...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW CHANCES TO REDUCE CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ALSO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD MAINLY
STEADY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...AND THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL
LATER TODAY.

THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT TODAY AND IS
BELOW...

SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU
AND THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ALSO
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE THE POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY LAYERS ALOFT SEEN IN AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE PREVENTING SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AROUND KPOU BUT SNOW FALLING JUST SOUTH
AND EAST...IN OTHER AREAS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
SO...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW CHANCES TO REDUCE CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ALSO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD MAINLY
STEADY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...AND THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL
LATER TODAY.

THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT TODAY AND IS
BELOW...

SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU
AND THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ALSO
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE THE POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCU
00004000
SSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY LAYERS ALOFT SEEN IN AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE PREVENTING SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AROUND KPOU BUT SNOW FALLING JUST SOUTH
AND EAST...IN OTHER AREAS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
SO...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW CHANCES TO REDUCE CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ALSO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD MAINLY
STEADY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...AND THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL
LATER TODAY.

THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT TODAY AND IS
BELOW...

SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU
AND THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ALSO
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE THE POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY LAYERS ALOFT SEEN IN AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE PREVENTING SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AROUND KPOU BUT SNOW FALLING JUST SOUTH
AND EAST...IN OTHER AREAS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
SO...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW CHANCES TO REDUCE CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ALSO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD MAINLY
STEADY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...AND THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL
LATER TODAY.

THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT TODAY AND IS
BELOW...

SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU
AND THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ALSO
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE THE POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY LAYERS ALOFT SEEN IN AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE PREVENTING SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AROUND KPOU BUT SNOW FALLING JUST SOUTH
AND EAST...IN OTHER AREAS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
SO...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW CHANCES TO REDUCE CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ALSO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD MAINLY
STEADY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...AND THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL
LATER TODAY.

THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT TODAY AND IS
BELOW...

SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS D
00004000
AWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU
AND THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ALSO
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE THE POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051421
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
921 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST THURSDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH NASHVILLE VT WEB
CAM SHOWING A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN VT THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
SUGARBUSH TO STOWE TO JAY PEAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES ASSOCIATED WITH
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ON LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS DROP NEAR -22C BY 18Z THIS AFTN...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO NEAR 10F SLK TO 15F MSS TO UPPER TEENS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LOWER TO MID 20S LOWER CT RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE COLD AIR WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO ARRIVE. HAVE
DROPPED HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TO MATCH THIS THINKING.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTN...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KPBG
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW FLOW. WINDS OF 8-15KTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT
KMPV. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING, FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051421
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
921 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST THURSDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH NASHVILLE VT WEB
CAM SHOWING A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN VT THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
SUGARBUSH TO STOWE TO JAY PEAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES ASSOCIATED WITH
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ON LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS DROP NEAR -22C BY 18Z THIS AFTN...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO NEAR 10F SLK TO 15F MSS TO UPPER TEENS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LOWER TO MID 20S LOWER CT RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE COLD AIR WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO ARRIVE. HAVE
DROPPED HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TO MATCH THIS THINKING.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTN...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KPBG
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW FLOW. WINDS OF 8-15KTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT
KMPV. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING, FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051421
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
921 AM
000017F2
 EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST THURSDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH NASHVILLE VT WEB
CAM SHOWING A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN VT THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM
SUGARBUSH TO STOWE TO JAY PEAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES ASSOCIATED WITH
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ON LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS DROP NEAR -22C BY 18Z THIS AFTN...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO NEAR 10F SLK TO 15F MSS TO UPPER TEENS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LOWER TO MID 20S LOWER CT RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE COLD AIR WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO ARRIVE. HAVE
DROPPED HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TO MATCH THIS THINKING.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTN...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KPBG
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW FLOW. WINDS OF 8-15KTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT
KMPV. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING, FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 05115
00004000
1
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 633 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE MAKING IT FEEL
COLDER. THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS RUSHING IN IS CREATING A BARRIER
TO SNOW MAKING ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES.

DRY CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. RADAR IMAGERY
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO A FEW HOURS AGO...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NOTED
WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING. SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE
AREAS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE.
SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU
AND THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ALSO
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE THE POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051151
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 633 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE MAKING IT FEEL
COLDER. THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS RUSHING IN IS CREATING A BARRIER
TO SNOW MAKING ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES.

DRY CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. RADAR IMAGERY
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO A FEW HOURS AGO...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NOTED
WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING. SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE
AREAS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE.
SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IT WILL HEAD OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU
AND THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ALSO
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHIFTED THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
HAS OPENED THE DOOR TO A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE THE POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO UP
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 633 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE MAKING IT FEEL
COLDER. THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS RUSHING IN IS CREATING A BARRIER
TO SNOW MAKING ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES.

DRY CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. RADAR IMAGERY
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO A FEW HOURS AGO...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NOTED
WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING. SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE
AREAS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE.
SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS
00004000
 TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 633 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE MAKING IT FEEL
COLDER. THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS RUSHING IN IS CREATING A BARRIER
TO SNOW MAKING ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES.

DRY CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. RADAR IMAGERY
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO A FEW HOURS AGO...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NOTED
WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING. SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE
AREAS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE.
SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 633 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE MAKING IT FEEL
COLDER. THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS RUSHING IN IS CREATING A BARRIER
TO SNOW MAKING ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES.

DRY CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. RADAR IMAGERY
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO A FEW HOURS AGO...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NOTED
WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING. SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE
AREAS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE.
SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS E
0000274A
VENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 051133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 633 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE MAKING IT FEEL
COLDER. THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS RUSHING IN IS CREATING A BARRIER
TO SNOW MAKING ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES.

DRY CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. RADAR IMAGERY
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO A FEW HOURS AGO...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NOTED
WHERE SNOW IS OCCURRING. SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE
AREAS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE.
SNOW TOTALS OF ONLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 547 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES VCNTY OF THE INTL BORDER FROM HIGHGATE TO JAY PEAK. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW A BIT STRONGER CLEARING TREND ACROSS
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN 
00004000
CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KPBG
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW FLOW. WINDS OF 8-15KTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT
KMPV. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING, FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 547 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES VCNTY OF THE INTL BORDER FROM HIGHGATE TO JAY PEAK. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW A BIT STRONGER CLEARING TREND ACROSS
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KPBG
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW FLOW. WINDS OF 8-15KTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT
KMPV. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING, FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 547 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES VCNTY OF THE INTL BORDER FROM HIGHGATE TO JAY PEAK. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW A BIT STRONGER CLEARING TREND ACROSS
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KPBG
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW FLOW. WINDS OF 8-15KTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT
KMPV. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING, FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 547 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES VCNTY OF THE INTL BORDER FROM HIGHGATE TO JAY PEAK. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW A BIT STRONGER CLEARING TREND ACROSS
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST M
00004000
ODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KPBG
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW FLOW. WINDS OF 8-15KTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT
KMPV. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING, FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051049
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
549 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 547 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES VCNTY OF THE INTL BORDER FROM HIGHGATE TO JAY PEAK. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW A BIT STRONGER CLEARING TREND ACROSS
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051049
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
549 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 547 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES VCNTY OF THE INTL BORDER FROM HIGHGATE TO JAY PEAK. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW A BIT STRONGER CLEARING TREND ACROSS
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051049
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
549 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 547 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES VCNTY OF THE INTL BORDER FROM HIGHGATE TO JAY PEAK. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW A BIT STRONGER CLEARING TREND ACROSS
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES
00000397
...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AM
00004000
PLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051049
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
549 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 547 AM EST THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
FLURRIES VCNTY OF THE INTL BORDER FROM HIGHGATE TO JAY PEAK. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW A BIT STRONGER CLEARING TREND ACROSS
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 050932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BRIEF GUSTINESS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS WELL AS A DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

DRY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE AND MAY ACTUALLY EXIT
THE AREA THEREAFTER. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS INTO
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATED...AS
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD IN WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BRIEF GUSTINESS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS WELL AS A DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

DRY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE AND MAY ACTUALLY EXIT
THE AREA THEREAFTER. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS INTO
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATED...AS
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD IN WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TO
00004000
DAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BRIEF GUSTINESS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS WELL AS A DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

DRY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE AND MAY ACTUALLY EXIT
THE AREA THEREAFTER. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS INTO
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATED...AS
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD IN WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BRIEF GUSTINESS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS WELL AS A DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

DRY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE AND MAY ACTUALLY EXIT
THE AREA THEREAFTER. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS INTO
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATED...AS
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD IN WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY WARM READINGS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS AT LEAST 50 DEGREES AT ALBANY
NY WAS BACK ON DECEMBER 27TH...AT POUGHKEEPSIE NY AND BENNINGTON VT
WAS BACK ON JANUARY 4TH AND AT GLENS FALLS NY AND PITTSFIELD MA WAS
ON DECEMBER 25TH.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH
00004000
WARD LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BRIEF GUSTINESS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS WELL AS A DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

DRY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE AND MAY ACTUALLY EXIT
THE AREA THEREAFTER. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS INTO
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATED...AS
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD IN WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BRIEF GUSTINESS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS WELL AS A DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

DRY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE AND MAY ACTUALLY EXIT
THE AREA THEREAFTER. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS INTO
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATED...AS
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD IN WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER
EARLY AM IR IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
MAY SEE SOME FILTERED SUN AT TIMES. AFTER OUR BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT BTV)...NW WINDS
AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG BELOW AVG).
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO...AND SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATAB
00004000
ATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER
EARLY AM IR IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
MAY SEE SOME FILTERED SUN AT TIMES. AFTER OUR BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT BTV)...NW WINDS
AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG BELOW AVG).
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO...AND SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER
EARLY AM IR IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
MAY SEE SOME FILTERED SUN AT TIMES. AFTER OUR BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT BTV)...NW WINDS
AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG BELOW AVG).
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO...AND SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER
EARLY AM IR IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
MAY SEE SOME FILTERED SUN AT TIMES. AFTER OUR BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT BTV)...NW WINDS
AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG BELOW AVG).
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO...AND SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURI
00004000
NG SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 050639
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRECIPITATION
STARTED OUT AS RAIN AT KPOU HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED ENOUGH AND THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE AT KPOU
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SHIELD IS NOT EXPECT TO IMPACT KGFL AND KALB BUT COULD BE
CLOSE AT KPSF AS THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MVFR-VFR ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF
THIS MORNING WITH PERSIST BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KGFL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN IN THE AFTN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050639
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRECIPITATION
STARTED OUT AS RAIN AT KPOU HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED ENOUGH AND THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE AT KPOU
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SHIELD IS NOT EXPECT TO IMPACT KGFL AND KALB BUT COULD BE
CLOSE AT KPSF AS THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MVFR-VFR ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF
THIS MORNING WITH PERSIST BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KGFL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN IN THE AFTN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
00004000
 NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050639
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRECIPITATION
STARTED OUT AS RAIN AT KPOU HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED ENOUGH AND THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE AT KPOU
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SHIELD IS NOT EXPECT TO IMPACT KGFL AND KALB BUT COULD BE
CLOSE AT KPSF AS THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MVFR-VFR ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF
THIS MORNING WITH PERSIST BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KGFL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN IN THE AFTN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050639
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRECIPITATION
STARTED OUT AS RAIN AT KPOU HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED ENOUGH AND THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE AT KPOU
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SHIELD IS NOT EXPECT TO IMPACT KGFL AND KALB BUT COULD BE
CLOSE AT KPSF AS THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MVFR-VFR ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF
THIS MORNING WITH PERSIST BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KGFL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN IN THE AFTN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050620
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN E
00004000
NTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRECIPITATION
STARTED OUT AS RAIN AT KPOU HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED ENOUGH AND THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE AT KPOU
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SHIELD IS NOT EXPECT TO IMPACT KGFL AND KALB BUT COULD BE
CLOSE AT KPSF AS THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AT KPSF THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KGFL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN IN THE AFTN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050620
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRECIPITATION
STARTED OUT AS RAIN AT KPOU HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED ENOUGH AND THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE AT KPOU
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SHIELD IS NOT EXPECT TO IMPACT KGFL AND KALB BUT COULD BE
CLOSE AT KPSF AS THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AT KPSF THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KGFL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN IN THE AFTN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050620
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THE
00004000
RE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRECIPITATION
STARTED OUT AS RAIN AT KPOU HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED ENOUGH AND THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE AT KPOU
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SHIELD IS NOT EXPECT TO IMPACT KGFL AND KALB BUT COULD BE
CLOSE AT KPSF AS THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AT KPSF THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KGFL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN IN THE AFTN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050620
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRECIPITATION
STARTED OUT AS RAIN AT KPOU HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED ENOUGH AND THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE AT KPOU
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SHIELD IS NOT EXPECT TO IMPACT KGFL AND KALB BUT COULD BE
CLOSE AT KPSF AS THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AT KPSF THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KGFL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN IN THE AFTN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050550
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST THURSDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE
REGION FROM NW-SE AT 05Z...AND IS RESULTING IN A NWLY WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE LIMITING RADIATIVE COOLING...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS...WITH A FEW UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY. BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY...WITH
LOWER 2-METER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE F
00004000
ASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050550
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST THURSDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE
REGION FROM NW-SE AT 05Z...AND IS RESULTING IN A NWLY WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE LIMITING RADIATIVE COOLING...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS...WITH A FEW UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY. BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY...WITH
LOWER 2-METER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050550
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST THURSDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE
REGION FROM NW-SE AT 05Z...AND IS RESULTING IN A NWLY WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE LIMITING RADIATIVE COOLING...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS...WITH A FEW UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY. BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY...WITH
LOWER 2-METER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050550
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST THURSDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE
REGION FROM NW-SE AT 05Z...AND IS RESULTING IN A NWLY WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE LIMITING RADIATIVE COOLING...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS...WITH A FEW UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY. BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY...WITH
LOWER 2-METER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOP
00003744
MENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050550
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST THURSDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE
REGION FROM NW-SE AT 05Z...AND IS RESULTING IN A NWLY WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE LIMITING RADIATIVE COOLING...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS...WITH A FEW UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY. BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY...WITH
LOWER 2-METER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050550
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST THURSDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE
REGION FROM NW-SE AT 05Z...AND IS RESULTING IN A NWLY WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE LIMITING RADIATIVE COOLING...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS...WITH A FEW UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY. BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY...WITH
LOWER 2-METER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 050541
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TE
00004000
ENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050541
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050541
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINL
00008000
Y IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050541
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050541
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050541
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS 
00004000
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT CIGS WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK EXPECTED.

WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT
15-20KTS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE AND NW WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10KTS. THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1006 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MA
00004000
JORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1006 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1006 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1006 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN
TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WE
00004000
EKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 050252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...PCPN STILL JUST SOUTH OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SLOW DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF STEADY PCPN IN THESE AREAS BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
HOWEVER...ONCE PCPN ARRIVES...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT THE SAME
AMOUTN OF SNOW AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO OUR LONG STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN VALLEY AREAS LOW OR MID 30S...AND MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LOW 20S ARE OCCURRING.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME
FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY ONCE PRECIP BECOMES A
STEADIER/HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
SO...EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW
CT...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LAST IN THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH
SLIGHTLY FURTHER N.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PRIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CODITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THORUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...PCPN STILL JUST SOUTH OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SLOW DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF STEADY PCPN IN THESE AREAS BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
HOWEVER...ONCE PCPN ARRIVES...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT THE SAME
AMOUTN OF SNOW AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO OUR LONG STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN VALLEY AREAS LOW OR MID 30S...AND MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LOW 20S ARE OCCURRING.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME
FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY ONCE PRECIP BECOMES A
STEADIER/HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
SO...EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW
CT...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LAST IN THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH
SLIGHTLY FURTHER N.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF
00004000
 SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PRIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CODITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THORUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO OUR LONG STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN VALLEY AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
MID 20S TO LWOER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE LITTLE...IF ANY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION PA IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO BACKING MID
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST US...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUITE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT...INTO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY ONCE PRECIP
BECOMES A BIT STEADIER/HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SO...EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW
CT...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LAST IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS
OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO
AND LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER
N.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PRIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CODITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THORUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO OUR LONG STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN VALLEY AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
MID 20S TO LWOER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE LITTLE...IF ANY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION PA IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO BACKING MID
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST US...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUITE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT...INTO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY ONCE PRECIP
BECOMES A BIT STEADIER/HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SO...EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW
CT...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LAST IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS
OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO
AND LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER
N.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THR
00004000
OUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PRIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CODITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THORUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 042359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
659 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO OUR LONG STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN VALLEY AREAS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...AND MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE LITTLE...IF ANY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME.

AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SW PA
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO BACKING MID
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST US...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUITE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT...INTO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY ONCE PRECIP
BECOMES A BIT STEADIER/HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SO...EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW
CT...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LAST IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS
OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO
AND LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER
N.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PRIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CODITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THORUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 042359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
659 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO OUR LONG STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN VALLEY AREAS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...AND MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE LITTLE...IF ANY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME.

AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SW PA
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO BACKING MID
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST US...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUITE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT...INTO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY ONCE PRECIP
BECOMES A BIT STEADIER/HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SO...EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW
CT...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LAST IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS
OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO
AND LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER
N.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.
00004000

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PRIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CODITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THORUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 042359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
659 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO OUR LONG STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN VALLEY AREAS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...AND MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE LITTLE...IF ANY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME.

AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SW PA
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO BACKING MID
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST US...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUITE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT...INTO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY ONCE PRECIP
BECOMES A BIT STEADIER/HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SO...EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW
CT...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LAST IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS
OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO
AND LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER
N.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE KALB/KGFL TAF SITES...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A VFR
CLOUD DECK DURING THE TAF PRIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AROUND 03Z WITH
CODITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN. BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THE MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND REMAIN VFR THORUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPSF...STEADY PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. IF
PCPN DOES NOT REACH KPSF...THEN THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IF PCPN DOES REACH KPSF...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST
ASPECT OF TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO
QUICK THAN WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED
WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGH
00004000
T. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST
ASPECT OF TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO
QUICK THAN WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED
WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST
ASPECT OF TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO
QUICK THAN WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED
WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST
ASPECT OF TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO
QUICK THAN WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED
WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIG
00004000
HT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WES
00004000
T-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 042140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO OUR LONG STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN VALLEY AREAS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...AND MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE LITTLE...IF ANY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME.

AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SW PA
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO BACKING MID
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST US...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUITE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT...INTO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY ONCE PRECIP
BECOMES A BIT STEADIER/HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SO...EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW
CT...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LAST IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS
OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO
AND LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER
N.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW 
00004000
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
RETURN TO MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW AT KPOU/KPSF...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AND KGFL.

THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE TAF
SITES BY 20Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO KPOU...WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KALB
AND KGFL. HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT KPOU BEGINNING AT 00Z...WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AT 03Z.
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AT KPSF AS SOME LIGHT FLURRIES MAY REACH INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW AT KPOU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/IRL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 042140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED TO OUR LONG STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD...WITH TEMPS IN VALLEY AREAS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...AND MAINLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE LITTLE...IF ANY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME.

AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SW PA
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO BACKING MID
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST US...AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUITE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT...INTO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NW CT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO WARM...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY ONCE PRECIP
BECOMES A BIT STEADIER/HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SO...EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW
CT...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LAST IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS
OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO
AND LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER
N.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
RETURN TO MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW AT KPOU/KPSF...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AND KGFL.

THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE TAF
SITES BY 20Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO KPOU...WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KALB
AND KGFL. HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT KPOU BEGINNING AT 00Z...WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AT 03Z.
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AT KPSF AS SOME LIGHT FLURRIES MAY REACH INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW AT KPOU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/IRL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH T
00004000
EMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD 
00001D7A
START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.

MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECWMF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR 
00004000
MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE
FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME
TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S.

THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 041754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS HAVE REACHED AROUND
40...AND MAY CLIMB AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWS TEMPS TO SETTLE BACK DOWNWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 30S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP N OF I-90 THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED. HAVE KEPT JUST SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS
REGION...IN CASE SOME SPRINKLES DEVELOP FROM THE PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PRESENT LEVELS IN MOST
VALLEYS...BEFORE GRADUALLY FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY BEING MET...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE MOISTURE
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SCRAPE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHEAST CATSKILLS...CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AS WELL...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. EITHER WAY QPF LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT AS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BE
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SIMILAR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AROUND 1-3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTING.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STARTING OUT WITH ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS IMPACTING THE REGION...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH SEASONAL READINGS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS AND THE FLOW
FLATTENING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THAT MOVE THROUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

EXPECTING TO START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLES DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
AS A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOT
AS COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY`S. BY TUESDAY ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 40S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHICH WOULD BE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 40
DEGREES IN ALBANY WAS BACK ON JANUARY 18TH...FOR GLENS FALLS
JANUARY 5TH AND POUGHKEEPSIE FEBRUARY 22ND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
RETURN TO MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW AT KPOU/KPSF...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AND KGFL.

THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE TAF
SITES BY 20Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO KPOU...WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KALB
AND KGFL. HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT KPOU BEGINNING AT 00Z...WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AT 03Z.
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AT KPSF AS SOME LIGHT FLURRIES MAY REACH INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW AT KPOU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BRIEF WARMUP WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARMTH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS.
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/IRL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 041754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS HAVE REACHED AROUND
40...AND MAY CLIMB AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWS TEMPS TO SETTLE BACK DOWNWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 30S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP N OF I-90 THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED. HAVE KEPT JUST SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS
REGION...IN CASE SOME SPRINKLES DEVELOP FROM THE PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PRESENT LEVELS IN MOST
VALLEYS...BEFORE GRADUALLY FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY BEING MET...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE MOISTURE
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SCRAPE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHEAST CATSKILLS...CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AS WELL...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. EITHER WAY QPF LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT AS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BE
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SIMILAR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AROUND 1-3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTING.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STARTING OUT WITH ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS IMPACTING THE REGION...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH SEASONAL READINGS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS AND THE FLOW
FLATTENING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THAT MOVE THROUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

EXPECTING TO START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLES DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
AS A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOT
AS COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY`S. BY TUESDAY ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 40S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHICH WOULD BE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 40
DEGREES IN ALBANY WAS BACK ON JANUARY 18TH...FOR GLENS FALLS
JANUARY 5TH AND POUGHKEEPSIE FEBRUARY 22ND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
RETURN TO MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW AT KPOU/KPSF...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AND KGFL.

THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE TAF
SITES BY 20Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO KPOU...WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KALB
AND KGFL. HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT KPOU BEGINNING AT 00Z...WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AT 03Z.
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AT KPSF AS SOME LIGHT FLURRIES MAY REACH INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW AT KPOU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BRIEF WARMUP WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARMTH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS.
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/IRL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 041754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO TH
00004000
E REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS HAVE REACHED AROUND
40...AND MAY CLIMB AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWS TEMPS TO SETTLE BACK DOWNWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 30S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP N OF I-90 THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED. HAVE KEPT JUST SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS
REGION...IN CASE SOME SPRINKLES DEVELOP FROM THE PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PRESENT LEVELS IN MOST
VALLEYS...BEFORE GRADUALLY FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY BEING MET...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE MOISTURE
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SCRAPE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHEAST CATSKILLS...CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AS WELL...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. EITHER WAY QPF LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT AS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BE
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SIMILAR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AROUND 1-3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTING.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STARTING OUT WITH ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS IMPACTING THE REGION...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH SEASONAL READINGS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS AND THE FLOW
FLATTENING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THAT MOVE THROUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

EXPECTING TO START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLES DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
AS A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOT
AS COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY`S. BY TUESDAY ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 40S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHICH WOULD BE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 40
DEGREES IN ALBANY WAS BACK ON JANUARY 18TH...FOR GLENS FALLS
JANUARY 5TH AND POUGHKEEPSIE FEBRUARY 22ND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
RETURN TO MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW AT KPOU/KPSF...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AND KGFL.

THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE TAF
SITES BY 20Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO KPOU...WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KALB
AND KGFL. HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT KPOU BEGINNING AT 00Z...WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AT 03Z.
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AT KPSF AS SOME LIGHT FLURRIES MAY REACH INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW AT KPOU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BRIEF WARMUP WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARMTH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS.
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/IRL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KALY 041754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS HAVE REACHED AROUND
40...AND MAY CLIMB AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWS TEMPS TO SETTLE BACK DOWNWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 30S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESP N OF I-90 THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED. HAVE KEPT JUST SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS
REGION...IN CASE SOME SPRINKLES DEVELOP FROM THE PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PRESENT LEVELS IN MOST
VALLEYS...BEFORE GRADUALLY FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY BEING MET...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE MOISTURE
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SCRAPE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHEAST CATSKILLS...CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AS WELL...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. EITHER WAY QPF LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT AS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BE
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SIMILAR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AROUND 1-3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTING.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STARTING OUT WITH ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS IMPACTING THE REGION...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH SEASONAL READINGS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS AND THE FLOW
FLATTENING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THAT MOVE THROUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

EXPECTING TO START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLES DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
AS A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOT
AS COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY`S. BY TUESDAY ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 40S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHICH WOULD BE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 40
DEGREES IN ALBANY WAS BACK ON JANUARY 18TH...FOR GLENS FALLS
JANUARY 5TH AND POUGHKEEPSIE FEBRUARY 22ND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
RETURN TO MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW AT KPOU/KPSF...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AND KGFL.

THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE TAF
SITES BY 20Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO KPOU...WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KALB
AND KGFL. HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT KPOU BEGINNING AT 00Z...WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AT 03Z.
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AT KPSF AS SOME LIGHT FLURRIES MAY REACH INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW AT KPOU SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BRIEF WARMUP WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF THE WARMTH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS.
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/IRL
HYDROLOGY...JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 041744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY WITH AN
AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BRIEFLY IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1202 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP
WELL AT THIS POINT, WITH ONLY MODEST TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPS WITH
THIS UPDATE. SKIES CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THAT WAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S FOR TODAY, UNLIKELY TO CLIMB
MUCH FURTHER GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NWLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND RETURN OF
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY...AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AND GENERALLY 20-25F FOR FRIDAY. STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY YIELD SOME MID-UPR CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SEE A
S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HRS. IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...COULD SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE FRIDAY
AFTN. ALL IN ALL, A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDA
00004000
Y RANGE
FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME
TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S.

THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 041744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY WITH AN
AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BRIEFLY IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1202 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP
WELL AT THIS POINT, WITH ONLY MODEST TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPS WITH
THIS UPDATE. SKIES CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THAT WAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S FOR TODAY, UNLIKELY TO CLIMB
MUCH FURTHER GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NWLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND RETURN OF
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY...AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AND GENERALLY 20-25F FOR FRIDAY. STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY YIELD SOME MID-UPR CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SEE A
S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HRS. IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...COULD SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE FRIDAY
AFTN. ALL IN ALL, A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE
FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME
TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S.

THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 041744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY WITH AN
AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BRIEFLY IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1202 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP
WELL AT THIS POINT, WITH ONLY MODEST TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPS WITH
THIS UPDATE. SKIES CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THAT WAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S FOR TODAY, UNLIKELY TO CLIMB
MUCH FURTHER GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NWLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND RETURN OF
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY...AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AND GENERALLY 20-25F FOR FRIDAY. STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY YIELD SOME MID-UPR CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SEE A
S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HRS. IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...COULD SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE FRIDAY
AFTN. ALL IN ALL, A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE
FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME
TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S.

THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF

000
FXUS61 KBTV 041744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE M