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0000C000000
FXUS61 KALY 241708
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF NOON...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF ALL OF TAF SITES.
THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE ANY MORE IFR (EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY) BUT
OCCASIONALLY WE HAVE LOW MVFR CIGS (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU THROUGH 22Z.

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 241708
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF NOON...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF ALL OF TAF SITES.
THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE ANY MORE IFR (EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY) BUT
OCCASIONALLY WE HAVE LOW MVFR CIGS (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU THROUGH 22Z.

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 241441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 932 AM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES MOST LOCATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR THAT LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW
FLAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 40-45F AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 241441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 932 AM EST MONDAY...WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS 18Z
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...GETTING SOME MODERATELY STRONG,
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35-45 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...A RESULT OF 850MB WINDS OF 65-70KTS
AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS QUITE STABLE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND
NOT SEEING MUCH LOW- LEVEL MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THIS
WILL CHANGE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS REACH NEAR 60F THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE GENERAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO 45 MPH IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IS THAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST...THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY 03-09Z...AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND LOCAL BTV- WRF MODELS. DURING TONIGHT...WE/LL SEE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WARM
FRONTAL RAINBAND IS QUICKLY EXITING...AND WE/LL SEE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES MOST LOCATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR THAT LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY. MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOW
FLAKES TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 40-45F AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE
PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLE
00004000
R-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
00004000
 THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 241148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST MONDAY...UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
RAIN TIMING AND BLEND IN OBSERVED WEATHER. FORECAST UNFOLDING AS
PLANNED, RAIN COVERING MOST ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT JUST NOW MOVING
IN TO FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT, AND BEGINNING ITS EXIT OF WESTERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY. TREND OF RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RELATIVE MIN IN POPS EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
COME BACK UP TO CHANCE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY.

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES QUITE
WARM...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OVER 60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND
PREVENT WIND FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS
WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
00004000
/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 241129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST MONDAY...UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
RAIN TIMING AND BLEND IN OBSERVED WEATHER. FORECAST UNFOLDING AS
PLANNED, RAIN COVERING MOST ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT JUST NOW MOVING
IN TO FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT, AND BEGINNING ITS EXIT OF WESTERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY. TREND OF RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RELATIVE MIN IN POPS EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
COME BACK UP TO CHANCE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY.

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES QUITE
WARM...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OVER 60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND
PREVENT WIND FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS
WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 241127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY EVENING.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO MVFR...AND
POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND CAN MIX
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT KGFL AND
PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE 
00004000
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 241127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY EVENING.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO MVFR...AND
POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND CAN MIX
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT KGFL AND
PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 241120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLO
00004000
W FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 241120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS IS THE SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ESSEX COUNTIES AROUND 08Z, COVER
NEAR ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY 12Z, AND
MOVE TO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. RAIN TO END WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND PREVENT WIND
FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL SEE
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFAC
00004000
E THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS IS THE SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ESSEX COUNTIES AROUND 08Z, COVER
NEAR ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY 12Z, AND
MOVE TO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. RAIN TO END WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND PREVENT WIND
FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL SEE
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 240839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HO
00004000
URS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 240839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240828
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS IS THE SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ESSEX COUNTIES AROUN
00000D57
D 08Z, COVER
NEAR ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY 12Z, AND
MOVE TO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. RAIN TO END WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND PREVENT WIND
FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL SEE
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHEAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRIONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WETBULB COOLING OF NEAR
SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
00004000
 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUE
00004000
SDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS
00004000
 A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 240531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...MAJOR OVERHAUL OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN AND WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 4 AM THROUGH
NOON TODAY. 0-30 MB AGL WINDS SHOW GUSTS OVER 40 KTS ACRS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND NOON TIME.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO SLACKEN. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL FOCUS THE
RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS
PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO HVY INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
BTWN 09Z- 12Z. THE RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND
MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 240531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...MAJOR OVERHAUL OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN AND WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 4 AM THROUGH
NOON TODAY. 0-30 MB AGL WINDS SHOW GUSTS OVER 40 KTS ACRS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND NOON TIME.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO SLACKEN. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL FOCUS THE
RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS
PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO HVY INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
BTWN 09Z- 12Z. THE RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND
MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH 
00004000
THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST SUNDAY... WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN BEFORE DAY BREAK HAS MOVED WELL INTO THE AREA. SKIES ARE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH A STRATUS DECK ACROSS VERMONT AND NEW
YORK. RIGHT NOW THE WARM FRONT PRECIP SHIELD IS MOVING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS JUST MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK AND SO I EXPECT IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER 4 TO 5 HOURS
BEFORE IT BEGINS IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT IT WILL BE A QUICK SOAKING RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING
COMMUTE AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA SO I QUICKLY ENDED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 15Z OR 10AM EST. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST OVER NIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WARM AIR FROM THE
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND TOMORROW WILL WARM UP TO THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 240303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST SUNDAY... WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW THE NOR
00004000
THERN
EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN BEFORE DAY BREAK HAS MOVED WELL INTO THE AREA. SKIES ARE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH A STRATUS DECK ACROSS VERMONT AND NEW
YORK. RIGHT NOW THE WARM FRONT PRECIP SHIELD IS MOVING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS JUST MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK AND SO I EXPECT IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER 4 TO 5 HOURS
BEFORE IT BEGINS IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT IT WILL BE A QUICK SOAKING RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING
COMMUTE AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA SO I QUICKLY ENDED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 15Z OR 10AM EST. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST OVER NIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WARM AIR FROM THE
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND TOMORROW WILL WARM UP TO THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 240236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 936 PM EST...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING WITH H500
HEIGHTS OVERLAYED DEPICTS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE TN VALLEY.
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. WE CONTINUED THE TREND TO TWEAK THE POPS BACK SLIGHTLY
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. EXPECTING THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL
FOCUS THE RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN
ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN GREENS TOWARDS 12Z. FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PENETRATING THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RAIN COULD BECOME MODERATE TO HVY
INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. THE
RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST W
00004000
INDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSU
00004000
RE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FAL
00004000
L MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 232351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS
IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO
0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS
IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LON
00004000
G TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 232351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS
IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO
0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS
IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 232351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS
IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO
0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS
IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 232351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NO
00004000
RTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS
IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO
0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS
IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 232335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 232335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
00004000
 THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 232323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOC
00004000
ALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 232323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR T
00004000
HE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK..
00001BCC
.THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE S
00004000
TRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKE
00004000
ND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 232033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A 
00004000
BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDENSDAY...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME
TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET.
WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMMINATING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 232033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDENSDAY...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME
TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET.
WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMMINATING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 232025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL
00004000
 BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 232025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXP
00004000
ECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 232007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 232007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN
00004000
 TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 231829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO 100
MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO
FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR
HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND A GOOD BIT OF
THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...SO THE TREND IS BCMG
CLEARER. HAVE YET TO SEE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE MAY ADD SOME
FURTHER CLARITY...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED AFTN...CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE S & E DURING THE EVNG. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL
TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...AND WILL
USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR
CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE OVER TO RN FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 
00004000
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 231829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO 100
MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO
FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR
HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND A GOOD BIT OF
THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...SO THE TREND IS BCMG
CLEARER. HAVE YET TO SEE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE MAY ADD SOME
FURTHER CLARITY...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED AFTN...CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE S & E DURING THE EVNG. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL
TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...AND WILL
USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR
CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE OVER TO RN FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH
00004000
 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL CO
00004000
OLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 231808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 231808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUAT
00004000
ED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 231731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 
00004000
04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 231731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FOR
00004000
WARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING SHOWERS
GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING
00004000
 AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING SHOWERS
GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISC
00004000
USSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW
00004000
 MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-5
00004000
0 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END AS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS HAVING A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THESE BREAKS...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR
MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END AS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS HAVING A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THESE BREAKS...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR
MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLI
00004000
GHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 231120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE FROM W TO E...WITH MAINLY JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. THIS DECREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG COULD FORM IN SOME AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO TH
00004000
E REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORA
0000276D
TE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 231103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEH
00004000
IND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 231103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 230916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKE
00004000
R SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 230916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM
00004000
 THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO V
00004000
FR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FOREC
00004000
AST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230818
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST SUNDAY...INFLUX OF WARM AIR CONTINUES IN THE
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 850MB
WINDS AT 35-45KTS. TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING SUCH AT THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS - TPK AT 32 DEGREES- AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
ISOLATED/SPOTTY AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE S/SW FLOW CANNOT SCOUR OUT COLDER
AIR. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FROM NRN NY EASTWARD INTO
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 230553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1253 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMB
00004000
ER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKS
NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...AND
THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. IT APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...COMBINED WITH GROUND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING DUE TO OUR
RECENT COLD SPELL...HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE REPORTS OF ICE
FORMATION DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL RISE
VERY SLOWLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY ICE
ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET
ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST SUNDAY...INFLUX OF WARM AIR CONTINUES IN THE
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 850MB
WINDS AT 35-45KTS. TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING SUCH AT THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS - TPK AT 32 DEGREES- AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
ISOLATED/SPOTTY AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE S/SW FLOW CANNOT SCOUR OUT COLDER
AIR. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FROM NRN NY EASTWARD INTO
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-
     004-007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 230508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH 
00004000
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 230508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO
00004000
 MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CD
00004000
FNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED
00004000
. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH
RESPECT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN VERMONT STILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING 
00004000
IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH
RESPECT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN VERMONT STILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH
RESPECT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN VERMONT STILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230255
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKING GOOD WITH
RESPECT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EASTERN VERMONT STILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THUS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. 
00004000
FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/W
00004000
ARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 230003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 230003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVE
00004000
N THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER M
00004000
IXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION
00004000
...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST 
00004000
WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING
00002EDD
 RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH
OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 222315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND
SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT
WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL
GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HA
00004000
S BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH
7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT
2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE
DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL
SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL
OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR
INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS.
THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AI