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0000C000000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY 
00004000
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300532
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1047 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION...SO BASED ON THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
KNOTS OBSERVED WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
P-GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG S-SW WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS 25-28
KTS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT LLWS...BUT IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL
MIXING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO REDUCE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR
AND GET MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS INDICATED IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE SW AND W WITH SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE AT SLK/MPV THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFTER
22Z THIS AFTERNOON AS ORORGAPHIC ASCENT INCREASES. SHOULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV...WHILE CEILINGS AND VSBY
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR AT THE OTHER TAF LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE OTHER TAF SITES WITH WARMER
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. WILL SEE A LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM NEAR
10 KFT DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS...TO 4-5 KFT DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND 3-4 KFT TONIGHT. HIR TRRN WILL BECOME OBSCD AT TIMES
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS MONDAY...AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY AND
THEN FAIR/VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
BRINGS POTL S-SW WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR/INTERVALS OF IFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300532
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1047 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION...SO BASED ON THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
KNOTS OBSERVED WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING VFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
P-GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG S-SW WINDS THIS
MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS 25-28
KTS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT LLWS...BUT IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL
MIXING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO REDUCE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR
AND GET MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS INDICATED IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE SW AND W WITH SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE AT SLK/MPV THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFTER
22Z THIS AFTERNOON AS ORORGAPHIC ASCENT INCREASES. SHOULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV...WHILE CEILINGS AND VSBY
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR AT THE OTHER TAF LOCATIONS. 
00004000
GENERALLY
SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE OTHER TAF SITES WITH WARMER
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. WILL SEE A LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM NEAR
10 KFT DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS...TO 4-5 KFT DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND 3-4 KFT TONIGHT. HIR TRRN WILL BECOME OBSCD AT TIMES
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS MONDAY...AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY AND
THEN FAIR/VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
BRINGS POTL S-SW WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR/INTERVALS OF IFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1047 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION...SO BASED ON THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
KNOTS OBSERVED WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUSDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH
DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV. WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH UPON TAF SITES BY 08-12Z WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AGAIN PERIODICALLY. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1047 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION...SO BASED ON THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
KNOTS OBSERVED WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUSDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH
DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV. WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH UPON TAF SITES BY 08-12Z WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AGAIN PERIODICALLY. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1047 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION...SO BASED ON THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
KNOTS OBSERVED WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY M
00004000
ORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUSDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH
DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV. WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH UPON TAF SITES BY 08-12Z WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AGAIN PERIODICALLY. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1047 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION...SO BASED ON THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
KNOTS OBSERVED WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUSDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH
DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV. WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH UPON TAF SITES BY 08-12Z WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AGAIN PERIODICALLY. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1047 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION...SO BASED ON THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
KNOTS OBSERVED WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLE
00004000
R SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUSDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH
DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV. WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH UPON TAF SITES BY 08-12Z WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AGAIN PERIODICALLY. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1047 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE REGION...SO BASED ON THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
KNOTS OBSERVED WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUSDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH
DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV. WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH UPON TAF SITES BY 08-12Z WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AGAIN PERIODICALLY. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW

000
FXUS61 KALY 300226
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...WHILE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 7 AM. A FEW BURSTS OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OF 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME 
00004000
WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 300226
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...WHILE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 7 AM. A FEW BURSTS OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OF 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS W
00004000
ILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 300226
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...WHILE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 7 AM. A FEW BURSTS OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OF 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 300226
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...WHILE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 7 AM. A FEW BURSTS OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OF 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
00003891
 SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
831 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 808 PM EDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. THESE
CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
TONIGHT AS WE WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS
WILL BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS
ALREADY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS, SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW
FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD
MORNING IN VT, WITH DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SO EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUSDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH
DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV. WILL SEE LOWER 
00004000
CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH UPON TAF SITES BY 08-12Z WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AGAIN PERIODICALLY. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
831 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 808 PM EDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. THESE
CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
TONIGHT AS WE WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS
WILL BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS
ALREADY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS, SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW
FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD
MORNING IN VT, WITH DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SO EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUSDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH
DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV. WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH UPON TAF SITES BY 08-12Z WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AGAIN PERIODICALLY. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
831 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 808 PM EDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. THESE
CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
TONIGHT AS WE WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS
WILL BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS
ALREADY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS, SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW
FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD
MORNING IN VT, WITH DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SO EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUSDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH
DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV. WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH UPON TAF SITES BY 08-12Z WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AGAIN PERIODICALLY. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
00004000

PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 808 PM EDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. THESE
CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
TONIGHT AS WE WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS
WILL BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS
ALREADY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS, SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW
FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD
MORNING IN VT, WITH DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SO EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 808 PM EDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. THESE
CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
TONIGHT AS WE WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS
WILL BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS
ALREADY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS, SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW
FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD
MORNING IN VT, WITH DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SO EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 300008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TU
00004000
ESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 808 PM EDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. THESE
CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
TONIGHT AS WE WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS
WILL BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS
ALREADY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS, SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW
FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD
MORNING IN VT, WITH DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SO EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 292356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT...THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE.
A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND
DAYBREAK...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER
CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODE
00004000
RATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 292356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT...THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE.
A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND
DAYBREAK...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER
CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 292356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT...THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE.
A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND
DAYBREAK...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER
CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN TH
00004000
E 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 292356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT...THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE.
A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND
DAYBREAK...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER
CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS 
00004000
GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 292356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT...THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE.
A FEW BURSTS OF STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND
DAYBREAK...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER
CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY I
00004000
N MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERL
00004000
INE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC 
00004000
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY... TRICKY TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS WILL
BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS ALREADY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS,
SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS TOWARD MORNING AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD MORNING IN VT, WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH MOISTURE SO
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY... TRICKY TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS WILL
BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS ALREADY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS,
SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS TOWARD MORNING AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD MORNING IN VT, WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH MOISTURE SO
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WE
00004000
LL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY... TRICKY TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS WILL
BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS ALREADY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS,
SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS TOWARD MORNING AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD MORNING IN VT, WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH MOISTURE SO
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY... TRICKY TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS WILL
BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS ALREADY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS,
SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS TOWARD MORNING AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD MORNING IN VT, WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH MOISTURE SO
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT
THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL
JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS
COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN IN
00004000
CH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE
SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE
AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT
OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
FOR MOST OF US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR
WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND
925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND
BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING
HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY
PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING
PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE
UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS.

FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF
WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY.
AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN
LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY.
SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH
AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED
00004000
 SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK
00004000
 WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY
00004000
 WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT 
00004000
MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS
5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV.
WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH
UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL
TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST
OUT OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL 
00004000
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-
OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-
OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS 
00004000
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-
OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND -9C MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 30S, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE IN THE VICINITY OF BTV WHERE SNOW
COVER IS PRETTY MUCH NIL. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW AND GUSTING TO 20
KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-
OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
0000083C
 INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO

00004000
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF A
00004000
ROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1043 AM EDT...AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 20S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THANKS TO THE
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEAR
00004000
S THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1043 AM EDT...AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 20S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THANKS TO THE
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1043 AM EDT...AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 20S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THANKS TO THE
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGH
00001B0A
ER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 925 TEMPS
AROUND -4C BY 12Z LOOKS LIKE MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO
THE 30S, PERHAPS TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW
UP TO 10 MPH AT KMSS AND EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO S OR SW
MOST AREA BY SUNSET. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES 
00004000
OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-
OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING
TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND WIND
SPEEDS WERE MADE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES AND 925 TEMPS
AROUND -4C BY 12Z LOOKS LIKE MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO
THE 30S, PERHAPS TOUCHING 40 IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS ARE ALREADY SW
UP TO 10 MPH AT KMSS AND EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO S OR SW
MOST AREA BY SUNSET. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-
OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE ALL AROUND FROM THE VIEW OF THE WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTH WEST TO WEST THUS BEGINNING THE TREND OF WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHER THAN THE LOVELY SARANAC LAKE AREA,
WHO IS CURRENTLY AT -9, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO START WARMING UP QUICKLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND
WIND SPEEDS WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADI
00004000
ATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-
OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE ALL AROUND FROM THE VIEW OF THE WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTH WEST TO WEST THUS BEGINNING THE TREND OF WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHER THAN THE LOVELY SARANAC LAKE AREA,
WHO IS CURRENTLY AT -9, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO START WARMING UP QUICKLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND
WIND SPEEDS WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-
OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE ALL AROUND FROM THE VIEW OF THE WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTH WEST TO WEST THUS BEGINNING THE TREND OF WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHER THAN THE LOVELY SARANAC LAKE AREA,
WHO IS CURRENTLY AT -9, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO START WARMING UP QUICKLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND
WIND SPEEDS WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SO
00004000
ME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-
OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE ALL AROUND FROM THE VIEW OF THE WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTH WEST TO WEST THUS BEGINNING THE TREND OF WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHER THAN THE LOVELY SARANAC LAKE AREA,
WHO IS CURRENTLY AT -9, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO START WARMING UP QUICKLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND
WIND SPEEDS WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-
OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 26 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE ALL AROUND FROM THE VIEW OF THE WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTH WEST TO WEST THUS BEGINNING THE TREND OF WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHER THAN THE LOVELY SARANAC LAKE AREA,
WHO IS CURRENTLY AT -9, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO START WARMING UP QUICKLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND
WIND SPEEDS WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS S
00004000
OUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE ALL AROUND FROM THE VIEW OF THE WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTH WEST TO WEST THUS BEGINNING THE TREND OF WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHER THAN THE LOVELY SARANAC LAKE AREA,
WHO IS CURRENTLY AT -9, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO START WARMING UP QUICKLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND
WIND SPEEDS WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE ALL AROUND FROM THE VIEW OF THE WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTH WEST TO WEST THUS BEGINNING THE TREND OF WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHER THAN THE LOVELY SARANAC LAKE AREA,
WHO IS CURRENTLY AT -9, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO START WARMING UP QUICKLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND
WIND SPEEDS WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND
00004000
 WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE ALL AROUND FROM THE VIEW OF THE WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NORTH WEST TO WEST THUS BEGINNING THE TREND OF WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHER THAN THE LOVELY SARANAC LAKE AREA,
WHO IS CURRENTLY AT -9, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO START WARMING UP QUICKLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND
WIND SPEEDS WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 291046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME SPOTS
IN THE ADIRONDACK WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREES.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO E
00004000
ARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME SPOTS
IN THE ADIRONDACK WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREES.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME SPOTS
IN THE ADIRONDACK WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREES.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND 
00004000
SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME SPOTS
IN THE ADIRONDACK WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREES.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATION
00004000
AL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GF
00004000
S...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE 
00004000
COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT
00004000
...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 291028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE
00004000
 TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290912
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURIN
00004000
G THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290912
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOM
00004000
E SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIF
00004000
IC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WE
00002546
RE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NEW
ENDLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
W
00004000
ONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NEW
ENDLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
SHOW DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL
00004000
 SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
SHOW DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
SHOW DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR
00001F3D
 AND IR SATELLITE
SHOW DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 290717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS 
00004000
DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOU
00002ACA
D LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
SHOW DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
00004000
 AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
SHOW DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
SHOW DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
SHOW DRY AIR AND CLE
00004000
AR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
SHOW DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
SHOW DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
00004000
 REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 290549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RA
00004000
IN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY..
00004000
.AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS RE
00004000
MAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
00004000
/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY 
00004000
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAINS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY YET TO BE RESOLVED. THERE WERE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARMTH OR LACK OF FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER GFS.

TUESDAY STARTS WITH FAMILIAR LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW.
CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING BY MAINLY TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA...AND SURFACE LOW PASSING
BY TO NORTH. AREA WILL BE CLIPPED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY CHANNELING IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. AREA
WILL BE WILL INTO THE WARM AIR FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS MAXING OUT NEAR +3 TO
+5C. QUICK HIT FROM PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF WARMUP WILL GIVE US
MINIMAL HYDRO CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PRECIP OR
SNOWMELT. RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY RISES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ICE BREAKUP. COLD FRONT DROPS THINGS BACK BELOW FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
500 MB TROUGH ON SATURDAY. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE ECMWF SEEMS
A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NY/VT.

TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE W
00000D40
IND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT 
00004000
LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN
00004000
 THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL

000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WIT
00004000
HIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERIN